Metagame SS OU Metagame Discussion Thread v7 (Usage Stats in post #3539)

PK Gaming

Persona 5
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I agree with the sentiment that Urshifu has always been the issue and focusing on FuturePort is a textbook example of treating the symptom rather than the cause.

FuturePort is undeniably cheesy, so I understand why people dislike it. But it's ultimately something we to accept, because I don't think there's a strong argument that can be made for banning that combination.
 

KamenOH

formerly DynamaxBestMeta
FuturePort is undeniably cheesy, so I understand why people dislike it. But it's ultimately something we to accept, because I don't think there's a strong argument that can be made for banning that combination.
There really isn't, but I'm unsure if that's even the real argument going around. Many times before, people have pointed out how it is Slowbro that is using the Future Sight/Teleport combo so, so effectively. It feels to me at least like this, not your post but the message you not alone have, is a deflection from the problem pokemon to the strategy it uses.
I utterly fucking despise stall, and wish it follow in Sodom's steps, but there is no possible way to meaningfully remove it within current structures, for it first and foremost is a playstyle, a combination of strategies, like HO, or BO, or fucking Trick Room. It isn't inherently broken, even if M-Sableye, once a staple of Stall, was. And I am not saying Slowbro is on Stall, because it is used to push Breakers above and beyond, and last I checked Stall didnt use Breakers.
Slowbro is the only relevant user of "FuturePort", meaning the two moves together make not a broken experience, but that it is Slowbro that is the keystone of this broke-ass bridge.
Another thing:
I agree with the sentiment that Urshifu has always been the issue and focusing on FuturePort is a textbook example of treating the symptom rather than the cause
I don't see how Urshifu, "has always been the issue." If anything, it is but one Breaker that bit the pie that is Slowbro. While it exceptionally works well, there are others that are assisted by Slowbro and its teleporting sight. If you prepare for the sight with a protect, you still have to contend with what your opponent brought in, because they may just have a set-up turn while you're protecting.
Getting a bit personal, but I feel as though that is constraining: having to build something in for future sight, else you face the consequences of a 120 BP psychic attack, coming from Slowbro, who brought something in because the opponent predicted your something-built.
 
If you struggle with spectrier just slap on a banded guts obstagoon. Switcheroo is very sauce against toxapex and it doesn't care about burn.
 
If you prepare for the sight with a protect,
I think Future sight hits after the turn ends, so it "goes through" (isn't affected by) protect.

If you struggle with spectrier just slap on a banded guts obstagoon. Switcheroo is very sauce against toxapex and it doesn't care about burn.
Most Obstagoon run Stabs or Stabs+CC, which means you only have one move to hit Spectrier which means you are beat by Sub Disable sets.
 
The way I see this whole issue we have several different options and outcomes we can take with this. They are..
1. We ban urshifu and futureport is not an issue
2. We ban urshifu and futureport still is an issue, so we ban the slowtwins and unban urshifu cause urshifu isnt broken without them
3. We test slowtwins from the beginning and ban them
4. We get rid of some things like pheromosa or spectrier which are also problems in the metagame, then see how it develops from there.

I personally like option 4, I'd rather deal with spectrier which mandates a ghost resist on every team plus it can get around them depending on its sets or pheromosa which is like DLC 1 cinderace but on crack. With the exception of pheromosa, if we have to ban more than just urshifu as the breakers than that means the slowtwins are the problem. I genuinely don't know whether futureport is even broken or not, but I'd like to take the option that involves the banning of the least amount of mons.
 
Obstagoon run Stabs or Stabs+CC, which means you only have one move to hit Spectrier which means you are beat by Sub Disable sets.
Go Scarf

252+ Atk Obstagoon Knock Off vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Spectrier: 276-326 (80.9 - 95.6%)

If they click Sub it will fail after, if they click Disable you can finish them off with Struggle and they can't switch back in to rocks. If the click Wisp you get to rampage.

He's a really cool Scarfer actually with Knock Off, Close Combat, Gunk Shot and either Switcheroo or Parting Shot. You can justify Defiant or Guts depending on your needs, though with Spectrier around you probably want Guts.
 
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Katy

Banned deucer.
About :Pheromosa: and :Urshifu: (Single-Strike)

I think Pheromosa fits the same category like Urshifu-S in the Sentiment of Future-Port-Abusers.
Both, Pheromosa and Urshifu-S can be profiteers of the same strategy, Future-Port and Pheromosa is usually paired up with eitehr Slowbro, or Slowking, as Pheromosas only downside is being frail with having 71 / 37 / 37 Stats in the HP / Def / SpD, whereas Urshifu-S is definitely bulkier.
That is in my opinion the only difference between them, but they abuse Futre-Port both in the same way with Slowbro or Slowking as Teampartners.

In-Depth look into Pheromosa:
Pheromosa is a great Pokemon with a good offensive typing and astronomical Speed of 151, which means it outspeeds most Pokemon naturally already in the OU Metagame. It's variety of Sets allows Pheromosa to do the Wallbreaking and also Sweeping consistently and reliably.

The Sets:
Pheromosa @ Choice Band
Ability: Beast Boost
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature
- U-turn
- Close Combat
- Triple Axel
- Rapid Spin / Poison Jab / Drill Run

Pheromosa @ Life Orb
Ability: Beast Boost
EVs: 252 SpA / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Modest Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Quiver Dance
- Shock Wave
- Ice Beam
- Focus Blast​

Pheremosa was always a Pokemon in this generation, which ahs been viewed rather carefully, but I think with its supergreat Speed-Stat, its great offensive Tools, and the way it can (re)act just pushes it over the Edge. Like Choice Band-Pheromosa can just safely U-turn out of bad Matchups, while keeping up momentum for the rest of the team, Close Combat is just a very reliable and strong STAB of choice and hits most Pokemon pretty hard in the tier, if not it can claim OHKOes for itself. Triple Axel is a great coverage, which gives it the edge over Pokemon such as Landorus-Therian, Tornadus-Therian, Zapdos, and Mandibuzz, which can all check the CB-Set due to their typing, ability or bulky. Triple Axel hits every one of them pretty hard, and is able to claim even OHKOes. Rapid Spin or Poison Jab will round the set up extremely well, Rapdis Spin can support the rest of the team, whereas Poison Jab can lure in fairies such as Tapu Fini and Clefable. Drill Run is another choice to hit Toxapex, which otehrwise would wall this specific Pheromosa-Set.
The Quiver-Set is another great option, as it can just sweep after the opposing team is weakened, Shock Wave can claim versus Tapu Fini and Toxapex, Ice Beam versus various flying-types and Focus Blast is a high BP fighting-type STAB Pheromosa appreciates to have as with a bit of chip can just run through the rest of the tier, baring Ghost-Types.
What I think pushes Pheremosa is the recent exploration of the Quiver Dance-Set as this set can bypass many Pokemon in the tier after just 1 Quiver, and its ability in Beast Boost gives it on top of a Life Orb a Boost in its Special Attack-stat, which means Phereomosa can have the potential to snowball out rather easily, when its checks are weakened beforehand or when Pheromosa Sets another Quiver-Dance on a Recover, which Toxapex uses. The only downside I see in both sets is the fraility of Pheromosa, but it makes up for it with its offensive presence. I would view this Pokemon very closely in my opinion.

In-Depth Look into Urshifu-S:
Urshifu-S has been a controversial Pokemon even before the drop of Crown Tundra and stays controversial still, as it is yet another Pokemon, which can profit of the same way as Pheromosa does from Future-Port. Urshifu, while having not the stellar Speed-stat could be still a problematic Pokemon in its own right, as it has a good Attack-stat alongside a great ability in Unseen Fist. Unseen Fist can bypass Protect and Wicked Blow just can manage to hit everything hard as it has the trait to always Crit.

The Sets:
Urshifu @ Black Glasses / @ Life Orb
Ability: Unseen Fist
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Jolly Nature / Adamant Nature
- Bulk Up
- Sucker Punch
- Close Combat
- Wicked Blow

Urshifu @ Choice Band / @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Unseen Fist
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Adamant Nature / Jolly Nature
- Wicked Blow
- Close Combat
- Poison Jab / Iron Head
- U-turn​

The first set is extremely threatening on not only teams with Future-Port Support but also on Hyper Offense variants as it is able to set-up rather easily with a Bulk Up and forces mindgames with Sucker Punch. After a Bulk Up it is able to tear through most Pokemon in the metagame, baring Tapu Fini, as Tapu Fini offers the bulk to withstand this Set after a +1 due to Bulk Up. The Choice Band / Choice Scarf-Set are threatening as well, as they can forme an even better Core with Teleport / Volt Switch users, and this Pokemon can just U-turn out of bad Matchups as well, to bring an appropiate Partner in safely. Lastly, Urshifu can run Poison Jab / Iron Head on this Set to catch Tapu Fini especially after some Stealth-Rocks chip.
I think the most dangerous set currently is the Bulk Up Life orb-variant, as this can classify itself as a really potent Set on HO-Teams and with Teampartners such as Magearna, Cinderace, Garchomp, and other potent Setup-Sweepers like Kartana, Rillaboom, and Hawlucha alongside an entry hazard-setter such as Landorus-Therian and screen-setters like Regieleki, Tapu Koko, or Alola-Ninetales, it can be force and a dangerous Pokemon to face. Magearna and kartana can both get rid off the bad Matchups for Urshifu, whereas Urshifu can create mind games with Sucker Punch, which gives it some pseudo-speed, especially when it faces faster choice-locked Pokemon, it can just punish them. In my opinion, this Pokemon should be viewed as closely as Pheromosa.

These Pokemon might find overlapping counterplay in Tapu Fini, and to a lesser extent Toxapex, but I think the overlapping counterplay doesn't mean that these 2 Pokemon can be healthy in their own ways, and therefore I would view both of them very closely and how the metagame develops and reacts around them.

Thanks for reading everyone and have a g'day!​
 
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Go Scarf

252+ Atk Obstagoon Knock Off vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Spectrier: 276-326 (80.9 - 95.6%)

If they click Sub it will fail after, if they click Disable you can finish them off with Struggle and they can't switch back in to rocks. If the click Wisp you get to rampage.

He's a really cool Scarfer actually with Knock Off, Close Combat, Gunk Shot and either Switcheroo or Parting Shot. You can justify Defiant or Guts depending on your needs, though with Spectrier around you probably want Guts.
If they sub on the switch you get disabled upon breaking the sub and are forced to struggle, Obstagoon is a poor counter because it cannot switch in and reliably win. Scarf can revenge kill, but so can a lot of better mons; that isn't the problem with handling Spectrier.
 
I think Future sight hits after the turn ends, so it "goes through" (isn't affected by) protect.


Most Obstagoon run Stabs or Stabs+CC, which means you only have one move to hit Spectrier which means you are beat by Sub Disable sets.
With the normal flame orb + guts Obstagoon set you can at least switcheroo on the first disable turn and then switch out and back in. I'm not sure if this actually lets the Obsta 1v1 the disable set, but they'll at least be very weakened after substituting multiple times and taking burn damage.
 

Perish Song

flaunt
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I used Obstagoon myself with the following set and must say it works surprisingly decent for breaking stuff, although it still sees a lot of competition from other breakers. The reason why I used Obstagoon in this metagame, in particular, was that it maybe is the only Normal-type offensive Pokemon that gets stronger with status. This means it's an ideal answer to most Spectriers, barring the rare Sub Disable set which still cannot touch you and is forced to stall for long turns before you die to Burn damage. Moreover, it's immune to Future Sight so that's a bonus quality.

Obstagoon @ Flame Orb
Ability: Guts
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Facade
- Knock Off
- Close Combat
- Switcheroo

This is the standard set that you can find on Smogdex, featuring Switcheroo over Obstruct/Protect. The moves are pretty self-explanatory, and to briefly talk about Switcheroo, can be pretty handy. After using Switcheroo, it is almost guaranteed that you will end up with an item that only boosts your potential even further. Some examples being Leftovers to negate Burn damage, and Boots to negate entry hazard damage. Giving Flame Orb to your opponent also allows Obstagoon to burn stuff that can be handy occasionally. Overall it's a great offensive Ghost immunity that can take advantage of certain Pokemon in the meta very well, and is worth experimenting with it.
 
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Pluim

formerly goodra4thewin
If they sub on the switch you get disabled upon breaking the sub and are forced to struggle, Obstagoon is a poor counter because it cannot switch in and reliably win. Scarf can revenge kill, but so can a lot of better mons; that isn't the problem with handling Spectrier.
Not great, but you could run Facade, Knock, CC, and another Dark Move (Use this first), so Knock doesn't get disabled. Then you run Life Orb and smack the horse. I mean, it's still probably broken, but this is something that reliably beats it.
 

Goodbye & Thanks

Thrown in a fire?
I've written elsewhere about how I dislike Spectrier and I completely agree with what Gomi said in their post, so please don't take this as a defense of Spectrier in any way. I just wanted to point out that Lickilicky of all things is actually one of the best possible Spectrier answers. Now even mentioning a PU Pokemon like Lickilicky is a testament to how limiting Spectrier can be, and Lickilicky is largely outclassed by Blissey/Chansey in almost every way, but it does have a few unique advantages that I'd like to mention here. I also already wrote about Lickilicky in a SwSh OU Bazaar post, but I thought I would reiterate it here as well.


Lickilicky @ Leftovers
Ability: Oblivious
EVs: 248 HP / 8 Def / 252 SpD
Careful Nature
- Knock Off
- Wish
- Protect
- Toxic

Lickilicky has two unique things going for it over Blissey/Chansey: Oblivious and access to Knock Off. Oblivious prevents Lickilicky from getting Taunted, which can be important, as Taunt can invalidate Blissey/Chansey. Lickilicky can take on Pokemon like Taunt + Magma Storm Heatran (if the Heatran doesn't also have Toxic), Taunt Tapu Fini, and Taunt Tornadus-Therian, all of which are a pain for Blissey/Chansey. Knock Off is obviously fantastic and often makes Lickilicky more difficult to switch into than Blissey/Chansey. Now in regards to Spectrier, the combination of Knock Off, Oblivious, and a Normal typing should allow Lickilicky to beat any Spectrier set. If you Knock Off to break their sub, you should click Toxic the next turn, in case they Disable your Knock Off. Even if Lickilicky gets burned and it takes 2 Knock Offs to break a sub, it's not like Spectrier can threaten Lickilicky in return. Switching Spectrier out against Lickilicky can also put your opponent in an awkward position because you're likely spamming Knock Off. Protect helps Lickilicky beat Disable Spectrier sets as well because I guess that a set of Substitute, Will-O-Wisp, and Disable could theoretically be annoying, but I don't know if anyone runs that set anyway. While Lickilicky isn't nearly as good as Blissey/Chansey outside of the few niches I mentioned here, it does still have good bulk and offers nice utility in Wish, Knock Off, and Toxic, so it's not like it's completely deadweight aside from a few matchups. However, with all of that being said, Lickilicky is in PU for a reason and its susceptibility to status and less bulk overall just makes it less reliable and more support-dependent than Blissey/Chansey, so it's hard to justify using Lickilicky. Still, it does have some uses, and since one of them is dealing with the very annoying Spectrier, which has been a topic of conversation here, I thought that I would throw it out there - plus I just like this dopey pink guy.
 
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I used Obstagoon myself with the following set and must say it works surprisingly decent for breaking stuff, although it still sees a lot of competition from other breakers. The reason why I used Obstagoon in this metagame, in particular, was that it maybe is the only Normal-type offensive Pokemon that gets stronger with status. This means it's an ideal answer to most Spectriers, barring the rare Sub Disable set which still cannot touch you and is forced to stall for long turns before you die to Burn damage. Moreover, it's immune to Future Sight so that's a bonus quality.

Obstagoon @ Flame Orb
Ability: Guts
EVs: 252 Atk / 4 SpD / 252 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Facade
- Knock Off
- Close Combat
- Switcheroo

This is the standard set that you can find on Smogdex, featuring Switcheroo over Obstruct/Protect. The moves are pretty self-explanatory, and to briefly talk about Switcheroo, can be pretty handy. After using Switcheroo, it is almost guaranteed that you will end up with an item that only boosts your potential even further. Some examples being Leftovers to negate Burn damage, and Boots to negate entry hazard damage. Giving Flame Orb to your opponent also allows Obstagoon to burn stuff that can be handy occasionally. Overall it's a great offensive Ghost immunity that can take advantage of certain Pokemon in the meta very well, and is worth experimenting with it.
Ive been using Jolly on Flame Orb Goon since DLC2. It lets you outspeed max speed Nidoking, Excadrill, Landorus-T, Rotom-W/H, most Zapdos, adamant Urshifu, and lets you speed tie max speed Tapu Lele and Kyurem. You get 1hko's on all those except Lando, defensive Zapdos, and you barely miss 1hko's against Rotom's with HP investment unless its non-boots Rotom-W after rocks.
 
Even though against most sets Obstagoon is a pretty good answer, one set has potential to break through it: Specs. Obstagoon is cleanly 3HKOd by a Specs Mud Shot AKA Fake HP Ground, which is a common filler move so it can hit Heatran for massive damage. While this does not seem like big damage, and it kind of isn't, this can dissuade it from switching in again due to it's very poor longevity, especially if hazards are up and it's burned, because then it can be easily chipped down really fast and becomes more wary of coming in on another Mud Shot. The speed drop also does not do it any favors.


(Other possible filler moves on the Specs set like Uproar and Hyper Beam 2HKO and almost always OHKO respectively, but I didn't mention them for their obvious drawbacks. Hyper Beam does at least either outright kill it or at worst force a trade. Still, considering that Spectrier has almost nothing else to run someone might decide to use these just for specific situations.)
 
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If you want to turn Goon into a proper counter to Spectrier run Gunk shot over Facade on the standard set and you can use Gunk to break the Sub.



The Scarf counters everything but the Sub Disable set nicely, and only lose to that if it Subs on the switch in.
 
I'm not claiming one way or another, but just for the sake of conversation...

I wonder if one day trapping moves will be banned or otherwise problematic. For a very long time Arena Trap and even Shadow Tag were tolerated and banned on a case by case basis. In Dugtrio's case it took 10+ years to finally be banned from 4th and 5th gens. If gen 9 was to be released tomorrow it wouldn't surprise me to see those trapping abilities quick banned, or otherwise the first things on the chopping block. Yet that kind of thinking about Dugtrio would be crazy talk in 2008. Dugtrio and Arena Trap were once considered a fair tactic and were seen as part of the meta.

Yet now we still have Pokemon like Toxapex or Urshifu-Water which can use trapping moves to prevent switching to either kill their counter via some odd anti-set or use the trap effect to deny a double switch. Block has been around since gen 3 and Grip Claw since 4 so these aren't exactly new strategies, but they have certainly seen much more use in recent years. No longer a joke move, trapping moves have seen serious play.

Again I'm not saying they're broken by any means but it seems like trapping moves are an attribute to the meta that has been slowly increasing in viability. I wonder if, just like Dugtrio, the player base will one day decide they are uncompetitive and best to be banished.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
 
I'm not claiming one way or another, but just for the sake of conversation...

I wonder if one day trapping moves will be banned or otherwise problematic. For a very long time Arena Trap and even Shadow Tag were tolerated and banned on a case by case basis. In Dugtrio's case it took 10+ years to finally be banned from 4th and 5th gens. If gen 9 was to be released tomorrow it wouldn't surprise me to see those trapping abilities quick banned, or otherwise the first things on the chopping block. Yet that kind of thinking about Dugtrio would be crazy talk in 2008. Dugtrio and Arena Trap were once considered a fair tactic and were seen as part of the meta.

Yet now we still have Pokemon like Toxapex or Urshifu-Water which can use trapping moves to prevent switching to either kill their counter via some odd anti-set or use the trap effect to deny a double switch. Block has been around since gen 3 and Grip Claw since 4 so these aren't exactly new strategies, but they have certainly seen much more use in recent years. No longer a joke move, trapping moves have seen serious play.

Again I'm not saying they're broken by any means but it seems like trapping moves are an attribute to the meta that has been slowly increasing in viability. I wonder if, just like Dugtrio, the player base will one day decide they are uncompetitive and best to be banished.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
The reason why, in my opinion, trapping moves are not as broken as abilities is that trapping moves have drawbacks, like low power, accuracy, and/or pp, alongside being temporary. Trapping Abilities are broken simply because they're instantaneous upon switching in, and forces you to run and Flying-type/Levitator or a Ghost-type, which is very restrictive.

Block exists, tho, but, there's a reason it's not "broken", and no one is suicidal enough to use Block on something that is not a defensive mon. Magnet Pull is the other trapping ability, but unlike Arena Trap or Shadow Tag, it's not OP as it only traps opposing Steel-types, and that's one reason why Magnezone is so good, but definitely not broken compared to Dugtrio or Gothitelle, that are completely unviable without their abilities.
I still remember when everyone started using Corvi with Shed Shell or U-Turn just for Magne, lol.
 

Ehmcee

A Spoopy Ghost
is a Pre-Contributor
Future Sight in combination with a strong fighting type pokemon hits every type for at least neutral damage except psychic. Which is why i think Urshifu and Pheromosa are so good at acting as the fighting type in the combo, since their secondary stab deals super effective damage to psychic types. I think Urshifu and Pheromosa should definitely be looked at first, then see how the meta progresses against futureport slowtwins.
 
Future Sight in combination with a strong fighting type pokemon hits every type for at least neutral damage except psychic. Which is why i think Urshifu and Pheromosa are so good at acting as the fighting type in the combo, since their secondary stab deals super effective damage to psychic types. I think Urshifu and Pheromosa should definitely be looked at first, then see how the meta progresses against futureport slowtwins.
Essentially this. Urshifu was already a pretty controversial aspect to the metagame long befure FuturePort took off (pre-CT) and Pheromosa was doing its own controversial things before FuturePort's discovery, as well, even though the previous quick banned CT-meta Pokemon took up more of the spotlight. I also agree with the idea of looking into the prime abusers of FuturePort first before looking into the Slowtwins to see if the combination of FuturePort + abuser as an idea is still deemed too much if/when Urshifu and Pheromosa are banned beforehand.
 
Obstagoon can run taunt, which forces sub disable spec into a pretty unfavorable 50/50. Or you can run snarl, which not only goes through sub but weakens special attack and let's goon 1v1 literally every spec set
 

Goodbye & Thanks

Thrown in a fire?
Sorry if I'm missing something, but why are people so afraid of Obstagoon being Disabled by Spectrier that they feel like they need to run suboptimal sets? Wouldn't the standard Knock Off/Facade/Close Combat/Switcheroo set with a Flame Orb beat the Substitute/Disable/Nasty Plot or Calm Mind/Shadow Ball Spectrier set? Spectrier can only Disable the Obstagoon Knock Off if Obstagoon has already used Knock Off to break its sub, so you just click Switcheroo after breaking the sub. Unless I'm mistaken, I don't think it's common for a Substitute + Disable Spectrier to have any attacking move other than Shadow Ball, so it wouldn't be able to touch Obstagoon and would eventually die to the Flame Orb burn, while Obstagoon would stay healthy with the Leftovers. Clicking Switcheroo after breaking the sub is usually a nice move in case they switch out anyway.
 
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Sorry if I'm missing something, but why are people so afraid of Obstagoon being Disabled by Spectrier that they feel like they need to run suboptimal sets? Wouldn't the standard Knock Off/Facade/Close Combat/Switcheroo set with a Flame Orb beat the Substitute/Disable/Nasty Plot or Calm Mind/Shadow Ball Spectrier set? Spectrier can only Disable the Obstagoon Knock Off if Obstagoon has already used Knock Off to break its sub, so you just click Switcheroo after breaking the sub. Unless I'm mistaken, I don't think it's common for a Substitute + Disable Spectrier to have any attacking move other than Shadow Ball, so it wouldn't be able to touch Obstagoon and would eventually die to the Flame Orb burn, while Obstagoon would stay healthy with the Leftovers. Clicking Switcheroo after breaking the sub is usually a nice move in case they switch out anyway.
I think the preferred move for disable spectrier is actually dark pulse, since the intention behind the set is to nail blissey, but otherwise your logic is pretty sound.
The most "normal" exchange between obstagoon and spectrier I can think of is:
1st turn: spectrier subs up, obstagoon breaks it with knock off.
2nd turn: spectrier disables knock, obstagoon tricks it a flame orb.
at the end of this you have a spectrier that subbed up for basically no gain, and is burned. It also needs to sub again to sweep which means it will probably be at around 40% without taking any hits. It can probably win the 1v1 vs obstagoon at the cost of crippling itself beyond help if it packs dark pulse. If it is running a ghost move it's pretty much done for.
But I think people underestimate how bad replacing leftovers with a burn is on pokemon that depend on subs. With lefties, you can invest into your subs, and get a lot of the health back, without them and while burned, every broken sub hurts you a lot and sets you on a ridicoulously fast timer, especially combined with entry hazards. Think of this: we are analyzing what happens in the two turns in both scenarios:
1. scenario: you have lefties, no burn. on the first turn you sub, and the lefties heal you, on the second turn you do whatever you were gonna do behind the sub and get lefty heals again. in this case, a sub cost you 13% health.
2. scenario: you have burn, no lefties. on the first turn you sub, and the burn damages you, on the second turn you do whatever you were gonna do behind the sub and get burn damage again. in this case, a sub cost you 37% health. So basically you can do this twice before dying.
 
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Goodbye & Thanks

Thrown in a fire?
I think the preferred move for disable spectrier is actually dark pulse, since the intention behind the set is to nail blissey, but otherwise your logic is pretty sound.
The most "normal" exchange between obstagoon and spectrier I can think of is:
1st turn: spectrier subs up, obstagoon breaks it with knock off.
2nd turn: spectrier disables knock, obstagoon tricks it a flame orb.
at the end of this you have a spectrier that subbed up for basically no gain, and is burned. It also needs to sub again to sweep which means it will probably be at around 40% without taking any hits. It can probably win the 1v1 vs obstagoon at the cost of crippling itself beyond help if it packs dark pulse. If it is running a ghost move it's pretty much done for.
But I think people underestimate how bad replacing leftovers with a burn is on pokemon that depend on subs. With lefties, you can invest into your subs, and get a lot of the health back, without them and while burned, every broken sub hurts you a lot and sets you on a ridicoulously fast timer, especially combined with entry hazards. Think of this: we are analyzing what happens in the two turns in both scenarios:
1. scenario: you have lefties, no burn. on the first turn you sub, and the lefties heal you, on the second turn you do whatever you were gonna do behind the sub and get lefty heals again. in this case, a sub cost you 13% health.
2. scenario: you have burn, no lefties. on the first turn you sub, and the burn damages you, on the second turn you do whatever you were gonna do behind the sub and get burn damage again. in this case, a sub cost you 37% health. So basically you can do this twice before dying.
Alright, thank you. I think that a Spectrier set that only has Dark Pulse as its attacking move is much less threatening overall, especially if Obstagoon is able to give it a Flame Orb (although burns only do 6.25% in this gen so subbing with a burn would cost Spectrier 31%, which is still a lot). I don't feel like there's much of a reason for Obstagoon to run some niche fourth move over Switcheroo just for Spectrier, especially since Obstagoon isn't a very reliable answer to Specs Spectrier anyway.
 
Alright, thank you. I think that a Spectrier set that only has Dark Pulse as its attacking move is much less threatening overall, especially if Obstagoon is able to give it a Flame Orb (although burns only do 6.25% in this gen so subbing with a burn would cost Spectrier 31%, which is still a lot). I don't feel like there's much of a reason for Obstagoon to run some niche fourth move over Switcheroo just for Spectrier, especially since Obstagoon isn't a very reliable answer to Specs Spectrier anyway.
yh, it is weaker by quite a wide margin. Also the 37% is meant over two turns, beacuse the tought is, you use the first turn to set up a sub, and the second to actually do something behind the sub, which means you take burn damage twice. If you can't use the second turn to actually do something then you shouldn't sub, so that means you are taking two burn damage turns
 

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