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[Standard] -- Monsters Mafia Game Over! Overused Win

"I WILL KILL YOU ALL!" screams Nook, but it did not save him from his heart exploding from the combined might of the remaining players; a grace note of cosmic justice.
Dear nook
You are a werewolf

At night, may send Jigglypuffers42 and Aura Guardian a PM with title "Night X - killing USER". USER will die.

You win if you are the last player alive
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You puzzle over the rather weak neutral, then peel that role back and see his real role:
Dear nook,
You are a Griffin.

You are a being of Egyptian Mythology. Egypt = Desert. Good enough for me. With a body of the lion and a head of the eagle, you are king over both bird and beast. Your eagle’s wings don’t hurt your powers, either.

At night, you may send Jigglypuffers42 and Aura Guardian a PM with title “Night X – Steal from USER”. You will steal any items USER has.

You are allied with the Desert Marauders. You win if the Desert Marauders defeat all opposing factions.
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What could have caused this change? A strange blue and black bipedal jackal with golden fur on his torso and rather wicked spikes on his hands and legs chest steps forward and unleashes a pulse, destroying Nook's ... some item he had. An item now removed from the game by the lynch of it's owner, perhaps?

IT IS NOT YET NIGHT 6. I HAVE YET TO GIVE SOME DAY RESULTS. STAND BY, PLEASE.
 
Aura Guardian said:
What could have caused this change? A strange blue and black bipedal jackal with golden fur on his torso and rather wicked spikes on his hands and feet steps forward and unleashes a pulse, destroying Nook's ... some item he had. An item now removed from the game by the lynch of it's owner, perhaps?
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20050314_lucario.png

LUCARIO BE IN THIS GAME!!!!!
 
The first thing you notice is that Smashlloyd20's name was aptly chosen, for he has been smashed against the ground a few times.
Dear smashlloyd20,
You are a Ghoul,

Contemplating the fragile cycles of such a hideous creature brings not only a tear to the eye, but causes you to contemplate life, for even the scariest of things live life for life and only for life, not think for their future life or the possibility of the end of life. We could learn a lot by observing such a marvelous monster. What if we could live life for life while life lives other lives? We cannot, for we live life for future life and we live each moment hoping to gain more life, though by spending life to gain life we live in an infinite cycle of exchanging life to life itself. Do you want to live that way?

At night, you may send Jigglypuffers42 and Aura Guardian a PM with title "Night X – Steal from USER". You will steal all of USER’s items.

You are allied with the Vicious Undead. You win if the Vicious Undead defeats all opposing factions.
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LifeAdmiral has returned, and Agape has gone missing. Same rules as before for the kidnapped.
　
IT IS NOW DAY 7. DEADLINE IS IN 48 HOURS, OR UNTIL MAJORITY/EFERYONE VOTES

Night results are going out.
 
Vicious Undead: Are you sure you want to do this? If you lynch me, shade will have the upper hand as soon as Agape returns. I can help you, and you can help me. I have an item that you need. Your thief is gone, you can't steal it. If you spare me, I can give you the upper hand. If we lynch the Overused Monsters, you take the upper hand.
 
if they help you, you win

they lynch you, they've got a 66% chance of getting the wand from your body, which is far better than the 0% chance of them winning after they help you and you don't give them the wand. the awesome 3 are the strongest right now, role wise, another cycle of neither of them dying would result in a definite victory for the a3.

also pl this wouldnt be happening right now, but kidnapping agape was not part of the plan.
 
pfft 66%? There are currently 8 people alive. Only 1 person has died from the "Awesome 3", which one can assume has three people in it; there are 2 a3s. DM and von are wiped out, and the OM have lost 4 people. Therefore, there are 3 OM, 2 a3, and 3 of Undead right now. If we lynch pl, then there will be 3OM, 1A3, and 3 undead. In what way does this equate to 66? In fact, you have a 43% chance of getting the wand, and a 14% chance that you will be able to use it tonight.
Not only this, the Overused killer is not dead. So, we can map out 3 scenarios should we vote pl.

SCENARIO 1: OM or the A3 get the wand. They will most likely not give Undead the wand. So, OM kills tonight. there are now 3OM, 1A3, and 2 Undead. They can now tie the lynch, and continue picking us off. Result? No win for Undead. This will happen 4/7 of the time.

SCENARIO 2: One of the non-killer Undead gets the wand. They will give their killer the wand that night, but the killer will not be able to kill. They can still force a tie on the lynch. Result? No win for Undead. This will happen 2/7 of the time.

SCENARIO 3: The Undead killer gets the wand. If you kill one of the OM, and they kill you (most likely scenario), it will be 2OM, 1A3, and 2VU, and you have roughly a 50% chance of winning then.

Let's combine these probabilities. 4/7 of the time, you lose. 2/7 of the time, you still lose.And 1/7 of the time, you have a 50% chance to win. Thus, you have a 4(0)/7 * 2(0)/7 * 1(1/2)/7, which equals a 1/14 chance of winning, or about 7%. Are you sure you want to vote pl?
 
I can't be on in 3 hours so i'll say majority was when that vote was placed, so now it's deadline

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You all gang up on polelover, but decide to turn on danmantincan. His head rolls (literally). He was:

Dear danmantincan,
You are a Robot.

One of the most classic monsters out there, you were once created by an evil genius. Now, you are fully automated and have learned a few tricks. Such as not having to obey the rules of robots that forbid harming people or allowing them to be harmed.

At night, you may send Jigglypuffers42 and Aura Guardian a PM with title “Night X – Look up USER in my database”. You will find out USER’s entire role PM.

You are allied with the Overused Monsters. You win if the Overused Monsters defeat all opposing factions.
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Night 7. Get targeting people.
 
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