Metagame SV OU Metagame Discussion v2 [Update on Post #5186]

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`ShadowTwo said:
Regarding DLC 1: if certain new pokemon prove to be broken, I would like the council to continue to watch and possibly integrate into the Radar current threats that still remain broken, such as Kingambit or Baxcalibur.

There's absolutely nothing new check Baxcalibur, lmao the 3 Pokémons of legendary trio are getting smashed by Earthquake.
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There is. Clefable checks all sets that forget Ice Moves and actually has Unaware to soft check even Ice spammers. At the very least, Clefable prevents Band versions from brainlessly spamming Glaive Rush.
While weak to EQ, Alola Sandslash can use Baxcalibur's own Snow to outspeed it and hit hard with Iron Head, while also taking +1 EQ due to Snow boosting defense. Still not enough, since Baxcalibur can just use DD twice, but Sandslash can also use SD and then it becomes a Tera mind gaming,
Of course, its still not enough and I do think Bax is the most broken Mon in OU after Iron Valiant, but there are 2 new checks.
 
Eeveeto said:
There is. Clefable checks all sets that forget Ice Moves and actually has Unaware to soft check even Ice spammers. At the very least, Clefable prevents Band versions from brainlessly spamming Glaive Rush.
While weak to EQ, Alola Sandslash can use Baxcalibur's own Snow to outspeed it and hit hard with Iron Head, while also taking +1 EQ due to Snow boosting defense. Still not enough, since Baxcalibur can just use DD twice, but Sandslash can also use SD and then it becomes a Tera mind gaming,
Of course, its still not enough and I do think Bax is the most broken Mon in OU after Iron Valiant, but there are 2 new checks.
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Clef having to run Unaware means it has to forgo Magic Guard though, which will very likely be needed if DLC1 looks anything like the current meta. All of this is before factoring Tera in, but in general the mechanic flips a lot of tiering discussion like this on its head anyway so.
 
artificialdeath said:
Clef having to run Unaware means it has to forgo Magic Guard though, which will very likely be needed if DLC1 looks anything like the current meta. All of this is before factoring Tera in, but in general the mechanic flips a lot of tiering discussion like this on its head anyway so.
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I doesn,t need to run Unaware, with Magic Guard is still a check, can fire one Moonblast at least before dying, so you rk Bax with something else. Its a very shaky check, but still makes Bax a little worse than it currently is (still broken though).
 
By the way, Polchageist's evolution has an alternate form with a different talent, but a unique visual difference that looks imperceptible in combat. I assume that smogon will treat the 2 forms as being independent and possibly belonging to different third parties.
 
AlexIGuessNotFound said:
The Tera Fairy Tera Blast Kingambit in Question.
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I've done it. I created this demon of a set. I love it and hate it at the same time

Kingambit @ Assault Vest
Ability: Supreme Overlord
Tera Type: Bug
EVs: 252 HP / 88 Atk / 168 SpD
Adamant Nature
- Iron Head
- Sucker Punch
- Grass Knot
- Kowtow Cleave

Ok. Ok. Now you might be wondering: why the hell is this thing Tera Bug and Grass Knot? Dw I'll get to it in a second.

When you think of Kingambit, what's the first thing that comes to mind? Probably some max max spread tbh. That and endgame cleaning. This is a set that is meant for lategame and only lategame.

ITS WORTH MENTIONING
- It can work at both 4 and 5 mons down. 3 creates a roll for Gholdengo with Sucker Punch to KO.
- Stealth Rock and Spikes are preferred to not be on the field as that creates more rolls.
- The EVs are made for a specific scenario. You can adjust them to any place you find fitting by way of an endgame or even a 1v1

Now you're ready to see the scenario.
:meowscarada: and :kingambit: vs :great tusk:, :iron valiant:, :rotom-wash: & :gholdengo:

Picture This: It's the SPL Finals. You are facing a full health Great Tusk, Iron Valiant, Rotom-Wash and Gholdengo. It sounds really, REALLY bad for you especially now that you have 4 mons down and a Kingambit in the back. You sacrificed a rocky helmet Corviknight to get in Kingambit for free. Now what? You need to win but you aren't confident you can. Luckily you saved the tera on Kingambit in case you needed it.

Unfortunately you to a Volt Switch from Rotom Wash. You know the Meowscarada you have can beat the Rotom-Wash, but it can't beat much else. They bring in Great Tusk. Now it's game time

Turn 1: You Terastallize Kingambit into a Bug Type. You Grass Knot the Great Tusk and it takes a massive chunk of damage as they went for Earthquake - dealing a solid chunk to your health but nothing you can't take.

252 Atk Great Tusk Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Tera Bug Kingambit: 70-83 (17.3 - 20.5%) -- possible 5HKO
Possible damage amounts: (70, 71, 72, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 78, 78, 79, 80, 81, 81, 83)

0- SpA Supreme Overlord 4 allies fainted Tera Bug Kingambit Grass Knot (120 BP) vs. 252 HP / 4 SpD Great Tusk: 238-280 (54.8 - 64.5%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
Possible damage amounts: (238, 240, 242, 246, 248, 252, 254, 256, 260, 262, 266, 268, 270, 274, 276, 280)

321 HP remaining. You doubted you would KO the Great Tusk with Grass Knot since your final mon wasn't KOd. You are relieved when you see the roll. Turn 2 starts. They revealed Ice Spinner vs your Landorus-Therian earlier so they click that and you KO the Great Tusk with Grass Knot.

252 Atk Great Tusk Ice Spinner vs. 252 HP / 0 Def Tera Bug Kingambit: 75-89 (18.5 - 22%) -- guaranteed 5HKO
Possible damage amounts: (75, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89)

232 HP remaining. They were caught off guard by the Grass Knot reveal, and hesitated to switch in their next mon. They go into Iron Valiant after much thinking (at least you assume that). They were proven to have Close Combat and Thunderbolt earlier that match and also revealed Booster Energy Speed. Turn 3 starts. They click Moonblast for some more chip as you easily KO with Iron Head. At this point they see the damage and rightfully assume you have Assault Vest.

252 SpA Iron Valiant Moonblast vs. 252 HP / 168 SpD Assault Vest Tera Bug Kingambit: 93-111 (23 - 27.4%) -- 62.7% chance to 4HKO
Possible damage amounts: (93, 94, 96, 97, 97, 99, 100, 102, 102, 103, 105, 106, 106, 108, 109, 111)

88+ Atk Supreme Overlord 4 allies fainted Tera Bug Kingambit Iron Head vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Iron Valiant: 402-474 (139.1 - 164%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Possible damage amounts: (402, 404, 410, 416, 420, 426, 428, 434, 438, 444, 450, 452, 458, 462, 468, 474)

121 HP remaining. Your heart is racing. A lot is on the line here. They switch into Gholdengo. They don't deal enough with Rotom Wash and they need to get rid of Kingambit. Everything comes down to this. Turn 4 starts. Being safe, you click Sucker Punch. However, they click Trick with Gholdengo and Sucker Punch fails.

Great. Now you have to gamble on EV spreads as well. You're confident that they aren't bulk invested since they are scarfed, and they can't stall out Sucker Punch effectively unless they switch. But either way it goes, both of you know your chances of victory are slim to none. Turn 5 starts. You click it. They stayed in trying to call your switch, but Sucker Punch KOs the Gholdengo!

88+ Atk Supreme Overlord 4 allies fainted Tera Bug Kingambit Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Gholdengo: 336-396 (106.6 - 125.7%) -- guaranteed OHKO
Possible damage amounts: (336, 338, 342, 348, 350, 354, 360, 362, 366, 372, 374, 378, 384, 386, 390, 396)

252 SpA Gholdengo Make It Rain vs. 252 HP / 168 SpD Assault Vest Tera Bug Kingambit: 127-150 (31.4 - 37.1%) -- 83.4% chance to 3HKO
Possible damage amounts: (127, 129, 130, 132, 133, 135, 136, 138, 139, 141, 142, 144, 145, 147, 148, 150)

Make It Rain would've KOd. Thankfully, you didn't lose the Sucker Punch war and your opponent was being aggressive. Even if it was no investment, the Make It Rain would have a 3/8 chance to KO.

0 SpA Gholdengo Make It Rain vs. 252 HP / 168 SpD Assault Vest Tera Bug Kingambit: 105-124 (25.9 - 30.6%) -- guaranteed 4HKO
Possible damage amounts: (105, 106, 108, 109, 109, 111, 112, 114, 115, 117, 117, 118, 120, 121, 123, 124)

Then again, you might have a higher chance of victory without all the high rolls. Your opponent knows they can't win with just a Rotom Wash. They forfeit, and you win the Smogon Premier League. You celebrate this moment and it'll go down in history.

If you made it this far, thank you for reading this Picture This: post. I might make more of these in the future - maybe make this little storytime-esque thing something I'm known by. Appreciate any and all feedback for my set.
 
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Collected data from WCoP Semis, Finals, and OLT Playoffs thus far, which make for 58 games worth of data. Sorry in advance if I screwed up somewhere

Number of Turns

Average number of turns: 48.87 (higher than all of SM, ORAS and DPP from the data here)
Median: 36 (higher than ORAS and DPP but lower than SM)

Some of you may wonder if it would be worth considering a trimmed mean instead. This means how would the data look if we were to take out the most extreme cases i.e. the longest and shortest games. I will provide such data but keep in mind the following:
  1. Removing data in this case would result in playstyles such as stall being (almost) completely neglected, which feels kinda unfair.
  2. I am not sure if the data presented for SPL games considered a trimmed mean, so it would also be kinda unfair.
  3. Both spectrums can get affected here, not only stall. For example in WCoP semis there was a game that ended after 9 turns due to a time out.
Average number of turns with the top 1 longest and shortest games removed: 46.64
Average number of turns with the top 2 longest and shortest games removed: 45.37
Average number of turns with the top 3 longest and shortest games removed (5.17% of data removed from each side): 44.02

Even with a trimmed mean, the number of turns is notably higher than it was in SV during SPL and is more in line with that of ORAS and SM.

HO + Sun

From the 58 games, 116 teams, there were

17 Hyper Offense teams that make up for 14.65% of teams
  • 10 of them were what you would consider pure HO or heavy Offense.
  • 4 of them were Grassy Terrain teams.
  • 2 of them were Webs
  • 1 of them was a Trick Room team
11 Sun Teams that make up for 9.48% of teams

No WCoP Semis

Only considering WCoP finals and OLT playoffs would give us a really small set of data at 39 games. However, we can make some observations from this.

Average number of turns: 51.82
Median: 38
Number / Percentage of HO teams: 8 teams or 10.25%
Number / Percentage of Sun teams: 7 teams or 8.97%

This data may suggest that the meta is becoming slower, with the average number of turns being higher and the number of HO and Sun teams being lower. This can be backed up by looking at the teams shared in the OLT Discussion Thread and elsewhere, notable mention goes to WildWave's post.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

WCoP Semis + Tiebreaker
45, 49, 26, 35, 35, 31, 36, 27, 44, 69, 24, 54, 31, 65, 29, 9, 146, 27, 32

Finals + Tiebreaker
33, 31, 21, 113, 38, 98, 20, 144, 27, 30, 35

OLT Playoffs
53, 36, 144, 36, 45, 75, 34, 44, 16, 41, 29, 214, 48, 38, 44, 41, 28, 29, 51, 43, 34, 26, 25, 17, 36, 102, 64, 38

Complete Set of Data
9, 16, 17, 20, 21, 24, 25, 26, 26, 27, 27, 27, 28, 29, 29, 29, 30, 31, 31, 31, 32, 33, 34, 34, 35, 35, 35, 36, 36, 36, 36, 38, 38, 38, 41, 41, 43, 44, 44, 44, 45, 45, 48, 49, 51, 53, 54, 64, 65, 69, 75, 98, 102, 113, 144, 144, 146, 214
 
SetsuSetsuna said:
Collected data from WCoP Semis, Finals, and OLT Playoffs thus far, which make for 58 games worth of data. Sorry in advance if I screwed up somewhere

Number of Turns

Average number of turns: 48.87 (higher than all of SM, ORAS and DPP from the data here)
Median: 36 (higher than ORAS and DPP but lower than SM)

Some of you may wonder if it would be worth considering a trimmed mean instead. This means how would the data look if we were to take out the most extreme cases i.e. the longest and shortest games. I will provide such data but keep in mind the following:
  1. Removing data in this case would result in playstyles such as stall being (almost) completely neglected, which feels kinda unfair.
  2. I am not sure if the data presented for SPL games considered a trimmed mean, so it would also be kinda unfair.
  3. Both spectrums can get affected here, not only stall. For example in WCoP semis there was a game that ended after 9 turns due to a time out.
Average number of turns with the top 1 longest and shortest games removed: 46.64
Average number of turns with the top 2 longest and shortest games removed: 45.37
Average number of turns with the top 3 longest and shortest games removed (5.17% of data removed from each side): 44.02

Even with a trimmed mean, the number of turns is notably higher than it was in SV during SPL and is more in line with that of ORAS and SM.

HO + Sun

From the 58 games, 116 teams, there were

17 Hyper Offense teams that make up for 14.65% of teams
  • 10 of them were what you would consider pure HO or heavy Offense.
  • 4 of them were Grassy Terrain teams.
  • 2 of them were Webs
  • 1 of them was a Trick Room team
11 Sun Teams that make up for 9.48% of teams

No WCoP Semis

Only considering WCoP finals and OLT playoffs would give us a really small set of data at 39 games. However, we can make some observations from this.

Average number of turns: 51.82
Median: 38
Number / Percentage of HO teams: 8 teams or 10.25%
Number / Percentage of Sun teams: 7 teams or 8.97%

This data may suggest that the meta is becoming slower, with the average number of turns being higher and the number of HO and Sun teams being lower. This can be backed up by looking at the teams shared in the OLT Discussion Thread and elsewhere, notable mention goes to WildWave's post.

////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////

WCoP Semis + Tiebreaker
45, 49, 26, 35, 35, 31, 36, 27, 44, 69, 24, 54, 31, 65, 29, 9, 146, 27, 32

Finals + Tiebreaker
33, 31, 21, 113, 38, 98, 20, 144, 27, 30, 35

OLT Playoffs
53, 36, 144, 36, 45, 75, 34, 44, 16, 41, 29, 214, 48, 38, 44, 41, 28, 29, 51, 43, 34, 26, 25, 17, 36, 102, 64, 38

Complete Set of Data
9, 16, 17, 20, 21, 24, 25, 26, 26, 27, 27, 27, 28, 29, 29, 29, 30, 31, 31, 31, 32, 33, 34, 34, 35, 35, 35, 36, 36, 36, 36, 38, 38, 38, 41, 41, 43, 44, 44, 44, 45, 45, 48, 49, 51, 53, 54, 64, 65, 69, 75, 98, 102, 113, 144, 144, 146, 214
Click to expand...
Ok but... What does turns have to do with power creep?
 
The2009Zapdos said:
Ok but... What does turns have to do with power creep?
Click to expand...

There is a correlation, but not a direct causation, of higher power creep lowering the number of turns a game takes. This is due to the way it significantly lowers the floor for either skill or luck to pick up a kill, thanks to an overtuned mon being allowed to click a button. See also:

+1 252 Atk Baxcalibur Glaive Rush vs. 248 HP / 248+ Def Moltres on a critical hit: 370-436 (96.6 - 113.8%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO

The meta becoming slower is a sign that players are becoming more comfortable with their teams, and either making fewer mistakes, or building in ways that are less likely to get completely blown out by a single wrong button press.
 
The2009Zapdos said:
Ok but... What does turns have to do with power creep?
Click to expand...

It's not a power creep thing, it traces back to a comment that was saying SV OU is filled with incredibly short games and dominated by HO. A beefy average game length indicates that no, HO is alive and well (and arguably the best it's ever been) but it is not dominating the tier and pushing out other styles.
 
I feel that Meowscarada is the best user of Protean. Thunder punch invalidates most of the birbs, and neuters Zapdos outright. Been sleeping on just how much utility it can pack, and the types it can swap too only aids that. Toxic Spikes makes me immune to Clod's Toxic, T Punch allows me to safely click Knock Off on anything.
 
So here’s some pretty big DLC news.

98F7179E-1971-440A-914C-D79644BF2521.jpeg


Note that Toxic actively had its distribution slashed in BDSP, so we won’t necessarily see it on EVERYTHING again, but just the fact that we’ll probably be getting Grassy Glide Rillaboom back, might get Poltergeist Basculegion-M, and may even see the likes of other Isle of Armor TMs like Scale Shot and Meteor Beam… well, we have a lot to look forward to beyond just the new Pokémon arrivals.
 
Yea, given they didn't even put it into SwSh and that BDSP drastically reduced the distribution I'd be surprised if Toxic is once again learnable by basically every Pokemon. I'm curious what the distribution of Scald will be. Scald REALLY shouldn't be as widely distributed imo since it's so absurd at its current power level. Though I imagine counter play to so many of the physical attackers in the tier it will be welcomed if it goes back to its previous distribution.

Scale Shot does seem super interesting if we get it back with Loaded Dice around.
 
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Grassy Glide Rillaboom, he's BACK. I kind of want Pult to learn Poltergeist but I know that if they do that he'll get suspected lol
 
JunkoAJ said:
Grassy Glide Rillaboom, he's BACK. I kind of want Pult to learn Poltergeist but I know that if they do that he'll get suspected lol
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On the one hand it would be weird if Pult gets it since he could have learned it last gen if they wanted. On the other hand I wouldn't be surprised if tons of Pokemon have gotten TM and tutor moves generations after the fact.
 
Is someone playing silly buggers with showdowns code? I should've saved replays but in the past hour my games have had 4-5 times more critical hits than usual. One game the opponent attacked 4 times in the first 5 turns and got 4 critical hits. Just about all of my games have been this way (and I'm not just being salty I've landed at least 20 myself). could just be strange luck but wondering if anyone else noticed.
 
TheTraininator said:
So here’s some pretty big DLC news.

View attachment 548357

Note that Toxic actively had its distribution slashed in BDSP, so we won’t necessarily see it on EVERYTHING again, but just the fact that we’ll probably be getting Grassy Glide Rillaboom back, might get Poltergeist Basculegion-M, and may even see the likes of other Isle of Armor TMs like Scale Shot and Meteor Beam… well, we have a lot to look forward to beyond just the new Pokémon arrivals.
Click to expand...
chansey and blissey rolling into ou and uu on september 13, 2023:
8AFA7334-60EF-4F9B-AC49-3DA9FE8282DD.jpeg
 
honestly grassy glide rillaboom doesnt seem like it will move the needle for rillaboom this gen imo

moltres and zapdos everywhere, lots of offensive Pokemon that Grassy Glide cannot revenge kill even with band

toxic tm is not anything to get excited about its mostly just for mons that already learn toxic like toxapex normally and a very few stragglers

poltergeist could be huge we've seen it vastly prop up viability of pokemon in the past such as froslass we'll have to see what it's on
 
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