In my opinion, the best way to proceed with tiering right now is a Darkrai suspect test.
I am going to cover a few points in this post:
- The lack of defensive counterplay to Darkrai and the mixed bag of offensive counterplay
- Why we shouldn’t be scared or worried about a post-Darkrai metagame
- Why the timing and fit of this suspect is appropriate
The first point is the easiest to address and perhaps the least contested: Darkrai lacks sufficient checks and counters in the metagame. There actually has not been a single post in this thread that genuinely tried to disprove this. Some posts have alluded to not wanting a suspect, but their reasoning has been:
- Not wanting to risk removing Darkrai due to the chain reaction banning it may cause (see my second bullet and later part of this post)
- Preferring other actions such as retests (Volcarona or Palafin) or even other suspect targets (various Pokemon, an item, and a move)
- Wanting the tier to remain as is due to enjoying the status quo or wanting to give it more time to settle after the Volcarona ban
Anyone is entitled to feel this way of course, but I do think the impact Darkrai is having on our metagame is problematic enough to where we must consider superseeding these sentiments through acting on Darkrai. Looking at Darkrai, it can run a variety of different sets ranging from Choice Scarf revenge killers to breaking sets, which also have some range between AoA and NP variants. We even see Knock Off on Spikes teams or Will-o-Wisp to deter certain physical attackers on occasion. One thing that "holds back" Darkrai is that it can only run one set on any given team and it is oftentimes going to have overlap in counterplay among possibilities. The main issue is that this counterplay is so stretched-thin that any breaking set is going to cause a lot of issues to balance and even end up oftentimes leading offense into trade-wars.
Traditional "checks" or "counters" to Darkrai tend to be Blissey, Zamazenta and Clodsire while fringe Pokemon like Assault Vest Hoopa-Unbound, Tinkaton, or Iron Hands can do the trick, too. It gets a lot messier in practice though as Darkrai has ways to circumvent everything with different variations or Tera usage while various other Pokemon are able to check it with the right Tera or positioning of their own, too. Some examples would be Tera Poison Darkrai, which is easily most common, letting it survive Zamazenta or flip-the-script against Fairy types. On the other side, it is possible for slower Pokemon like Primarina to Tera Steel or Gholdengo to Tera Fairy and take out a chipped Darkrai. This type of exchange is pretty healthy and one of the most fundamental strategies to playing any metagame with Tera, but my issue is how small the pool of Pokemon that are secure against Darkrai overall actually is and how reliant counterplay is on getting single turns correct, especially when they frequently rely on exhausting your Tera and avoiding a flinch or freeze.
If you take a step back, you realize teams frequently will need multiple Pokemon faster than Darkrai or at least one Pokemon faster than it alongside strong priority just to be safe from a potential sweep. On top of this, many teams want to use a Tera type (or two to cover various positions) to cover it if you're on the back-foot. Some teams can get away from this if they commit to trading Ting Lu for leaving Darkrai very weak, going full offense with a commitment to tempo or trading, or going very bulky with defensive stalwarts like the aforementioned Blissey or Clodsire, but this is not really not enough counterplay. It leaves balanced teams in disarray (yes, so do some other things, but not to this degree), it makes bulky-offense very limited in personnel (again: other things contribute, but Darkrai stands out relatively speaking), and has a trickled-down impact that a lot of people do not even realize when we look at styles used, inflated usage, etc. Overall, Darkrai just does not have enough checks or counters, making it broken.
Pivoting to "Why we shouldn’t be scared or worried about a post-Darkrai metagame", I recognize that some people fear that if we remove Darkrai, Pokemon like Gliscor lose a key offensive check. I do not typically tier with this mindset and it is not really what we are supposed to do by design, but I think another part of my job is addressing the needs of my playerbase. Multiple council members have cited these concerns and others in the thread, too, so I figured it would be a good time to chime in.
If Darkrai is banned, which is no guarantee -- the goal of a suspect is to let people decide, not to ban always -- upon being tested, I do not think Gliscor becomes an issue. It is already very good of course, but a clear step below DLC1 and Darkrai is far from the only Pokemon holding it back. Since DLC1, the tier added Kyurem and Deoxys-Speed, two Pokemon that are faster with Ice moves. Serperior is also trending up now, which 1v1s all Gliscor and can outright abuse certain sets. In addition to this, Pokemon during DLC1 like Weavile (low usage, B/B+ on VR), Ice Fang Zamazenta (no notable DLC1 usage), and Sinistcha (barely viable in DLC1, but owns SD variants) are all used much more nowadays and not only for Gliscor. This is not all there is to it either as we have seen some fun Tera Ice lures recently such as Iron Moth, Zapdos, Landorus-T, Glimmora, and Cinderace -- I hesitate to include these as they are more fringe, but the point is people feel confident loading them at the very least.
Yes, Darkrai is very good and it is a fast Pokemon that can OHKO Gliscor with Ice Beam while not being OHKO'd by Gliscor. However, it is not able to take more than 1-2 attacks from Gliscor, Toxic can put it on a timer, and SD Tera Normal/Water/Fairy can flip the entire situation with an SD or attack on the swap. The point is that Darkrai is not singlehandedly holding back Gliscor from being broken, there are various other checks to it that were introduced, and Gliscor is able to do its thing regardless for the most part.
And finally if Gliscor truly is broken without Darkrai, we can just act on it like we did during DLC1, which is how tiering is intended to go. The funny part is people saying that then we will be stuck in Zapdos purgatory with Para and Confusion deciding games -- I think this is a stretch at this point (like people saying Alomomola would be a genuine problem without Ogerpon-Wellspring). Similar to the dynamic with Gliscor, we have a ton of different Zapdos answers around, too. Kyurem and Raging Bolt are now top Pokemon when they did not previously exist during late DLC1 when Zapdos surged. Garganacl is peaking, Knock Off usage is at a high point, and Slowking-Galar has been a top Pokemon.
The point is that refusing to act on Darkrai because of fear for Gliscor gets a bit silly when we look at the whole metagame. And worrying about the same fear surrounding Gliscor and something like Zapdos is also a bit silly. I really do not think this should stand in our way.
Finally, regarding "Why the timing and fit of this suspect is appropriate", this is a bit harder of a discussion as we all have different, justifiable timelines in mind. My main thought is Volcarona was banned 2 whole months ago now, we had the entire first round of WCoP go down, and the survey showed support, so it should be on the table for a suspect now. This is more than enough time with sufficient developents given historical trends and my personal opinion.
I hope we can discuss suspecting Darkrai and I personally feel it would be the best next step for SV OU.