Metagame SV OU Metagame Discussion

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I ended up voting 3/3/2, but I haven’t been playing much of the tier and these are very cursory thoughts:
-Garg: people have repeated everything I’d say about it, but in short Salt Cure isn’t fair or honest, it’s got a nice complementary movepool, and even 100 attack while we’re here so it can run stuff like curse sets.
-Volcarona: I despise facing this mon but that’s not valid reason to give it any more then a three. I’ve been p removed from the tier and so I could only really give it a middle score.
-Shed Tail: Whenever I do ladder it’s with Grimm orth HO and I’m just not sold. Only having 1 shed tail really hurts the lil worm, certainly potent but I always find myself wasting it somehow. Again, super cursory, but still.
 
remember just because orthworm isn't broken doesn't mean that shed tail isn't at its core, getting a free turn or two to set up without having to slot sub is pretty broken. And stuff like dragonite, espathra, and Volc have proven that time and time again that shed tail isn't necessarily healthy at all. (Dragonite and volc aren't broken, but constantly teeter to being broken due to shed tail enabling them to set up for free.) Sometimes one negative priority shed tail is really all you need to 6-0 a team or give yourself a big advantage, and that isn't fun to play against.

Although shed tail is pretty strong its important to understand that on orthworm youre basically using the entire pokemons hp just to use the move shed tail once since it cant really do anything else once its lost all of its hp. imo it is not a broken move since mojority of the pokemon u pass to do cant rly utilise it as well as the aforementioned. it just seems to be for a select few pokemon that it is the problem. on a team without dnite or volc etc. its relatively easy to manage.

In terms of dnite/volc I would disagree and think they are somewhat broken, volc especially. Shed tail doesn't necessarily make them broken. They both have excellent abilities, set up moves, recovery, typing and coverage all packed in to one mon. Shed tail makes their setup a lot easier but managing these two alone has its difficulties too. Dnite is easier manage cos its a bit more predictable in its movesets and you know generally what it will go for. Volc on the other hand has great STAB, quiver dance, an ability that can render physcial attackers useless, will-o and morning sun. If shed tail was gone, it wouldnt make this mons less overpowered, theyd still be difficult to deal with
 
Although shed tail is pretty strong its important to understand that on orthworm youre basically using the entire pokemons hp just to use the move shed tail once since it cant really do anything else once its lost all of its hp. imo it is not a broken move since mojority of the pokemon u pass to do cant rly utilise it as well as the aforementioned. it just seems to be for a select few pokemon that it is the problem. on a team without dnite or volc etc. its relatively easy to manage.

In terms of dnite/volc I would disagree and think they are somewhat broken, volc especially. Shed tail doesn't necessarily make them broken. They both have excellent abilities, set up moves, recovery, typing and coverage all packed in to one mon. Shed tail makes their setup a lot easier but managing these two alone has its difficulties too. Dnite is easier manage cos its a bit more predictable in its movesets and you know generally what it will go for. Volc on the other hand has great STAB, quiver dance, an ability that can render physcial attackers useless, will-o and morning sun. If shed tail was gone, it wouldnt make this mons less overpowered, theyd still be difficult to deal with
My point being getting rid of it makes these guys easier to deal with since they get less opportunities to set up for free
 
I'm gonna swing the discussion back to tera, as someone's mentioned I think we've finally hit the slippery slope, though it hasn't come in the way people thought it would. The slippery slope is that more tera's are becoming viable and checks are now a matchup fish, instead of actually being dependent on play and a little rng. And a big thing I think people are downplaying is that even though some types are less common, they are still viable, you can still find success with them. The preferred tera type has changed but the older ones still can put in work simply because you're not sure which you're facing and the counterplay changes depending.
 
"A slippery slope argument (SSA), in logic, critical thinking, political rhetoric, and caselaw, is an argument in which a party asserts that a relatively small first step leads to a chain of related events culminating in some significant (usually negative) effect.[1] The core of the slippery slope argument is that a specific decision under debate is likely to result in unintended consequences. The strength of such an argument depends on whether the small step really is likely to lead to the effect. This is quantified in terms of what is known as the warrant (in this case, a demonstration of the process that leads to the significant effect). This type of argument is sometimes used as a form of fearmongering in which the probable consequences of a given action are exaggerated in an attempt to scare the audience. However, differentiation is necessary, since, in other cases, it might be demonstrable that the small step is likely to lead to an effect.

The fallacious sense of "slippery slope" is often used synonymously with continuum fallacy, in that it ignores the possibility of middle ground and assumes a discrete transition from category A to category B. In this sense, it constitutes an informal fallacy. In a non-fallacious sense, including use as a legal principle, a middle-ground possibility is acknowledged, and reasoning is provided for the likelihood of the predicted outcome. Other idioms for the slippery slope argument are the thin end/edge of the wedge, the camel's nose in the tent, or If You Give a Mouse a Cookie."


can we stop mentioning the name of a literal fallacy in arguments, like, at least don't even say the name of it lol, you are making yourself look silly to people who know what. like. words mean

the fearmongering is (b)razy, like, what lmao. "The slippery slope is coming!!!"

how, why, and when. What is the argument here. Can you actually prove that something like that is going to happen? Is it adding to the conversation at all? I think it's especially funny how, in pretty much all of these "Tera is gunna make a gosh darned slippery slope!!!" the ban examples are of extraordinary things. Most of which with unique traits that haven't been replicated in other Pokemon. Or things that would be broken anyways.

And the argument comes back again with Volcarona of all things? Wow, the Pokemon that is known for just trying to matchup fish in almost every OU (and hard arguments for ban before) has a new tool that can be abused in that way. I'm sure this means an entire mechanic needs to be suspect tested this second.

For the record, I am down for Tera Preview, but my god the anti-tera posts here are literally so thirsty for any example lol. Here's a spoiler alert from someone who likes Terastilization:

Yes, some Pokemon that are probably not broken otherwise will abuse the new mechanic and become broken.

Just like how Dragapult was banned from Gen 8 National Dex because Z-Moves gave it an actual physical Ghost STAB.

And how a Pokemon like Houndstone can be broken because it gets one crazy move.

Without one item that any Pokemon can use, Xerneas wouldn't be nearly as good, especially in VGC.

Pokemon like Abomasnow went from the face of a strategy banned from UU to being out of a job when permanent weather ended, killing HailStall strategies.

Or Melmetal/Regieleki can become broken with Terastilization.

Espeon can go from the captain of a broken strategy, to being like NU/PU with one or two changes in rules for Baton Pass.


If your argument against Terastilization is just "It makes some Pokemon that previously weren't broken, broken; then your argument is bad. Because that can be said about most Pokemon. That's not just an argument about why something should be gone, it's a mindset against change that you don't like.

One new move, ability, or mechanical change throughout generations on most Pokemon can make them broken, has, or has made them awful/reverse. An omnipresent mechanic that can be used by any Pokemon is very likely to make some of them broken. If you are arguing for Terastilization, you have to just accept that fact. If you are arguing against it, using the point of "Well some Pokemon will have to be banned!" isn't a good argument unless your mindset from the get-go is that Terastilization is throw-away and doesn't matter, which a lot of people don't agree with.

It's just a word salad dangling "Oooh, Regieleki/Etc.Etc. will be broken with Terastilization, doesn't that mean a lot?", which, no. Not really, it doesn't. That doesn't imply that the mechanic is bad, it implies that Regieleki and other Pokemon are a bad fit for the mechanic, and the whole point of the Smogon metagame is to balance Game Freak's shlock.
 
If your argument against Terastilization is just "It makes some Pokemon that previously weren't broken, broken; then your argument is bad. Because that can be said about most Pokemon. That's not just an argument about why something should be gone, it's a mindset against change that you don't like.
preach, dude. different gens’ mechanics will break their own mons. so yeah, tera might push mons like chien-pao or garg into “unhealthy” territory when they would’ve stayed in OU without it, but that’s not a reason to deride an entire generational mechanic. look at blaziken - ubers in gens 5-7, and UUBL in gen8. or something like cinderace, who was banned mid gen8 but is a healthy, good mon in SV. we’re still just ninety-four days into gen9. we’ll figure out what needs to go to keep the meta fun and healthy.

i’ll reiterate that because tera is arguably the most powerful full-game mechanic we’ve ever had, it fundamentally requires you to change how you view the game. we voted for tera to stay, so it’s a little silly to expect yourself or anyone else to adapt to it completely less than 100 days into a three-year generation.
 
Its a matter of quantity. We're 90 days in and 3 bans influenced by the mechanic have been done, and now we're discussing 2 more not even far away from the previous 2.. and later its not hard to assume even more than that. The only saving grace is that we're likely getting home soon and will shake things up again but even then it's going to boil down to the mechanic itself. Idk about you, but I'd like to actually see a healthy meta developed before gen 10 arrives.

We didn't ban tera (and nerfing it wouldn't matter), so we're going to discuss the things tera breaks because what the fuck else are we going to do, if X mon is broken and the primary factor is tera, then tera is going to be the culprit of an otherwise preventable ban. We already got rid of shit that broke the game without factoring in tera (palafin, chi-yu, iron bundle, flutter mane, etc), now its what takes advantage of it left. Smogon's tiering philosophy is to ban primary suspects, not a part of it to make the suspect seem healthier. We already saw the result;

Annihilape banned due to tera water
Espathra banned due to tera fighting/fairy
Chien-pao pushed further due to tera fighting. Would it have been banned regardless? Who knows but tera fighting was problematic for it.

And then here we are discussing more problems..

Volcarona is pushed over the edge by tera and its several different tera types.
Garga is pushed over the edge by tera cause of defensive tera typing.

Then what's next?

Kingambit without volc to check it? Dragonite with less to worry about when spamming extremespeed without garg? Roaring moon and iron valiant as big wall breakers that flew under the radar because of more urgent matters?

We're already seeing that domino effect. It was merely who's willing to accept that or not as a good or bad thing and everyone is beginning to see that more as we're talking about preventable shit like volc. If tera is the primary culprit, its going to just replace X abuser with another X abuser, its like removing scolipede to nerf baton pass.. and then blaziken happens, ban blaziken and then ninjask happens, ban ninjask and we're looking at fucking ninjask in the ubers list. We're already removed 3 mons to nerf tera and we're going to remove 2 more, and then what?

If we only banned a couple things then sure, but that domino effect is happening right now while the mechanic is already controversial as is. It can't be any more clearer than that.
 
Those mons would've been busted without Tera because you don't have the luxury of a defensive tera to keep them in check in specific situations. The premise behind those mons was just dumb for different reasons, they were very unbalanced despite the small vocal minority that believe they were these necessary evils or were balanced because they didn't 6-0. Ex. A speed boost mon with Stored Power was never going to be a symbol of balance in OU lol.

I like SV a lot more than the other past OUs despite it's chaoticness which is subject to change as the tier evolves and Home comes. With that said if you're talking about Tera again (because we all know it's eventually going to get banned just a matter of timing), don't do some dumb "preview" clause or w/e ridiculousness to justify keeping Tera around. Either full ban it or don't. Idc too much about the Volcarona discussion, it's revolved around Tera being present in the tier and is in the pool of 10+ mons that become broken with a specific situation and specific tera. Volc just to easier to eye right now cause it's the match-up moth.
 
endless loop of bans yet still unhealthy. :\ meh

Here's the full set of fresh bans this gen, and how much terastalization factored into it.

Koraidon/Miraidon - zero. Standard cover legendary ban, never had a chance.

* Houndstone - zero. The doggo is banned for Last Respects, and Last Respects only; without that move, it's a physical wall that probably slots nicely into one of the lower tiers. Last Respects is a quickban the moment a second user appears, and Houndstone will be unbanned.

* Flutter Mane - zero. 135 SpA, 135 Speed with three immunities and hitting one of its two weaknesses with a super effective STAB is pretty good, who could have guessed? Didn't last long enough for terastalization to even matter.

* Palafin - zero. Good defensive typing, monstrous stats, three excellent STAB moves (priority, pivoting, 120 BP), he can use terastalization to hit even harder, sure, but doesn't need it and was a sure-thing ban without it.

* Iron Bundle - zero. Unresisted STAB combo off 124 SpA while being the second fastest mon in S/V? Solid physical bulk, while almost all the priority being used is physical? He's busted regardless.

* Chi-Yu - zero. While a fantastic user of terastalization, it doesn't need the boost to be a problem. Specs Chi-Yu in sun has no safe switch ins, being able to reliably 2HKO 252/252+ Blissey with just stealth rock chip. It's an Uber with or without tera in the meta.

* Cyclizar - zero. Fast Regenerator subpass Shed Tail is why it got banned, and it was problematic with enough recipients that terastalization wasn't the problem on that side, either.

* Annihilape - minor to moderate. Rage Fist and high bulk was already a problem for teams to handle defensively, the ability to swap types just made it worse. It probably wouldn't have been a quick ban otherwise, but I don't think it survives the suspect test. Still, tera was an important part of the ban.

* Chien-Pao - moderate. It was such a good abuser of tera-Dark that everyone focused on that, but the name Mega-Weavile wasn't just a joke. Like Annihilape, it's probably banned either way, but that's much more speculative because of just how commonly it terastalized.

* Espathra - moderate to major. Getting rid of a poor defensive typing is hugely valuable, but even without tera it has a very limited pool of answers. At best it's an extreme matchup fish, at worst it's a 6-0 if given a turn or two to set up.


As to the two mons being most seriously considered:

* Garganacl - major. This mon is much, much easier to kill if stuck with a mono-Rock typing, and would be the first ban where terastalization was the problem, rather than just a factor.

* Volcarona - moderate to major. It's literally the same complaint as the last four generations: sometimes it's dead weight, sometimes it's 6-0'ing a team. Terastalization makes it more effective, but a couple of its defensive checks can exploit the mechanic, too, and its strengths are compounded by Dexit and limited Toxic distribution.

That's eight bans where terastalization wasn't a factor, three where it was (two of which are likely bans anyway, the third is questionable), and two potential suspects where it would be a factor. Calling this an 'endless loop of bans' due to the mechanic is flat out dishonest.
 
This will probably be my last post in this thread for a while, but I'm a little confused about all of the hate towards Orthworm's Shed Tail that I've seen from some users. Are people primarily concerned about the thought of Shed Tail and what they think that it can do or does anyone have high ladder or prominent tournament replays to show Shed Tail being overbearing post Espathra ban? I'm not asking because I don't believe that they exist, but rather I just haven't personally experienced much of Shed Tail from Orthworm being a problem with Espathra gone. Last week was the first week of SPL without Espathra and Orthworm was used three times and only won once. I'm going to quickly go over those three replays and examine the impact of Shed Tail in each game:

TJ vs devin - Orthworm uses Shed Tail against Ting Lu on Turn 10 to try to bring in Dragapult, which Ting Lu immediately Whirlwinds away. Devin is an excellent player but to be honest, I'm not sure what he was going for here since it's pretty obvious that TJ was going to Whirlwind. Orthworm doesn't use Shed Tail again in the game.

Ash KetchumGamer vs kythr - This is the only game from SPL last week that Orthworm won but ironically, I don't feel like Shed Tail helped too much in the game. Orthworm uses Shed Tail on Turn 8 as the opposing Baxcalibur goes for a DD. Ash KetchumGamer brings out his Volcarona that gets chipped a little after Baxcalibur's Icicle Spear breaks the sub and Volc finishes off the Baxcalibur before getting forced out by Pult the next turn. Orthworm doesn't go for Shed Tail again in the game. In total, all that Shed Tail accomplished was allowing for Volc to finish off the +1 Baxcalibur but in hindsight, Orthworm could have just gone for Body Press on Turn 8 and accomplished the same thing without chipping itself/losing its Sitrus Berry and getting Volc chipped. Obviously Ash KetchumGamer couldn't have known that kythr was going to stay in and DD on Turn 8, but by doing so, kythr neutered the effectiveness of Shed Tail.

Leo vs TheFranklin - Leo leads Orthworm and goes for Shed Tail on Turn 1 while TheFranklin goes for Spikes with Toedscruel. This is pretty much the ideal condition to get off a Shed Tail pass and if Espathra was still in the tier and on Leo's team, the game may have been over on the spot. However, Leo just passes to his Iron Jugulis which KOs the suicide lead Toesdcruel and is subsequently picked off by TheFranklin's Roaring Moon. It was unfortunate for Leo that his Jugulis missed its Hurricane against Roaring Moon on Turn 4 but that would only have done about half to Roaring Moon anyway and likely wouldn't have changed much. Orthworm doesn't pass another Shed Tail in the game.

In each of those three games, Orthworm only passes a single Shed Tail and none of them were overly deterministic to the outcome of the game. I feel like primarily when I have seen Shed Tail from Orthworm be effective without Espathra, the recipients have been things like Volc or Dragonite which would have likely ended up sweeping at some point in the game regardless. Orthworm obviously has no place on HO or in OU without Shed Tail so there is a big opportunity cost to bringing it to a game. Shed Tail is only as strong as the mons that get passed a Sub, and without Espathra in the tier, I don't know if the potential recipients of the Sub have enough potential to sweep to make the tradeoff of bringing Orthworm unbalanced. The main mon I can see truly being sent over the edge after receiving a Sub is Volc, but as I've said before, I feel like there is plenty of evidence of Volc being stupid and unhealthy without Shed Tail. Those are just my thoughts though and I would be more than happy to change them if I see Orthworm start to excel again in SPL after the Espathra ban, or if I see other examples of Orthworm's Shed Tail reliably facilitating unpreventable sweeps.
 
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Ban Tera or Ban Mons
Many of the recent bans and "on the radar" mons have been notable abusers of Terastalisation.
It's possible that this trend will continue as when one Tera abuser goes, the next best one becomes problematic, etc.
So I thought it could be worth considering how the tier would look if we just banned Tera, and I'm hoping to invite discussion around which of the two paths we want to go down once Home compatibility is out (bc I don't think it's getting retested before then).

Here's my subjective rankings of all the banned mons + a few that the community sees as potentially suspect-worthy.
A) Broken regardless of TeraB) Maybe ok if we banned TeraC) Would not be banned/suspect-worthy post-tera
:miraidon::koraidon::chi-yu::iron-bundle::houndstone::palafin-hero::cyclizar::flutter-mane::annihilape::chien-pao::gholdengo::espathra::garganacl::volcarona::dragapult::iron-valiant::kingambit:

So if Tera were banned today we'd only get Espathra and Chien-Pao back.
However, people are advocating for some of the C-tiers to be banned now, and, when Home releases, we'll get a bunch more B and C mons.
Here's another table with some of the predicted Home releases.
Not everything here, especially in C-tier, would be banned with Tera allowed. I just think these are potential candidates for being broken w/Tera.
A) Broken regardless of TeraB) Maybe ok if we banned TeraC) Would not be banned/suspect-worthy post-tera
Obvious Ubers + :basculegion::magearna::urshifu:SS :zamazenta::zamazenta-crowned::spectrier::hoopa-unbound::basculin-white-striped:(LR):enamorus::heatran::regieleki::tornadus-therian::ursaluna:

So, with all this in mind, as an example prediction, here's a list of mons we might have to sacrifice for the sake of preserving Tera.
:chien-pao: :espathra: :garganacl: :volcarona: :iron-valiant: :regieleki: :tornadus-therian:
Around 7 mons, which to me, isn't too much.
I think a restriction could potentially lower that number to 3 (pao, espa, leki) which is why I still lean towards team preview Tera as a first step.
Worst-case, though, the ban count could reach up to 16 if all of the B and C tier mons get banned with the intention of unbanning all of them post-Tera.

So, in summary:
  • Right now, Espathra is the only Uber banned from OU directly because of Tera. (Chien-Pao is a borderline case but may be manageable without Tera.)
  • From the current tier, there are only a handful of suspect-worthy Tera abusers - no more than 5.
  • Pokemon Home will add to that list of banned mons - Regieleki as the most obvious example but maybe a few others.
  • We will eventually reach a point where we as a community will have to decide between keeping Tera but banning around 5-10 mons, or restricting/banning Tera and freeing around 5-10 mons.
 
Those mons would've been busted without Tera because you don't have the luxury of a defensive tera to keep them in check in specific situations. The premise behind those mons was just dumb for different reasons, they were very unbalanced despite the small vocal minority that believe they were these necessary evils or were balanced because they didn't 6-0. Ex. A speed boost mon with Stored Power was never going to be a symbol of balance in OU lol.

I like SV a lot more than the other past OUs despite it's chaoticness which is subject to change as the tier evolves and Home comes. With that said if you're talking about Tera again (because we all know it's eventually going to get banned just a matter of timing), don't do some dumb "preview" clause or w/e ridiculousness to justify keeping Tera around. Either full ban it or don't. Idc too much about the Volcarona discussion, it's revolved around Tera being present in the tier and is in the pool of 10+ mons that become broken with a specific situation and specific tera. Volc just to easier to eye right now cause it's the match-up moth.
I mean, Pokemon themselves are doing Terra on team preview sheets for VGC. It is not like this is some rule that Smogon is pulling out of a hat in order to bend over backwards to justify Terra in the tier. If Game Freak is willing to do some sort of Terra Preview, it would not be that dumb for OU to consider doing the same. Most of the votes in the Terra suspect if Terrastralizing did require action wanted to do a Team Preview. I think just dismissing something that has a reasonable argument for it as "dumb" is just a bit disingenuous. I am not going to wade too much into the semantics of Terra discussion, but I do think just off the cuff saying that any fix beyond a ban is dumb and a ban is inevitable is not productive.

Personally, while it does not automatically "fix" every issue with Terra I think that it improves the situation a lot. Just look at the Terra index. So many mons can run 4+ viable Terra types. It is a lot easier to play around a defensive Terra when you have that valuable information. It removes a lot of the guess work that can go into a Terra MU. Knowing that Garganacl is Water, Fairy, or what have you lets you know whether it is going to be a reliable check to what you have and lets you plan around it. Knowing what Terra Kingambit or Gholdengo gives you valuable info that can stop you from losing to a bad terra situation on the spot. It does not solve everything obviously. It does not solve the inherit 50/50s with Terra which I know are tilting as heck. It still lets a sweeper have that potential out of a good Terra mu. What it does is provides both players with valuable information that takes away some of the variance and feels bad moments the mechanic can create.
 
Ban Tera or Ban Mons
Many of the recent bans and "on the radar" mons have been notable abusers of Terastalisation.
It's possible that this trend will continue as when one Tera abuser goes, the next best one becomes problematic, etc.
So I thought it could be worth considering how the tier would look if we just banned Tera, and I'm hoping to invite discussion around which of the two paths we want to go down once Home compatibility is out (bc I don't think it's getting retested before then).

Here's my subjective rankings of all the banned mons + a few that the community sees as potentially suspect-worthy.
A) Broken regardless of TeraB) Maybe ok if we banned TeraC) Would not be banned/suspect-worthy post-tera
:miraidon::koraidon::chi-yu::iron-bundle::houndstone::palafin-hero::cyclizar::flutter-mane::annihilape::chien-pao::gholdengo::espathra::garganacl::volcarona::dragapult::iron-valiant::kingambit:

So if Tera were banned today we'd only get Espathra and Chien-Pao back.
However, people are advocating for some of the C-tiers to be banned now, and, when Home releases, we'll get a bunch more B and C mons.
Here's another table with some of the predicted Home releases.
Not everything here, especially in C-tier, would be banned with Tera allowed. I just think these are potential candidates for being broken w/Tera.
A) Broken regardless of TeraB) Maybe ok if we banned TeraC) Would not be banned/suspect-worthy post-tera
Obvious Ubers + :basculegion::magearna::urshifu:SS :zamazenta::zamazenta-crowned::spectrier::hoopa-unbound::basculin-white-striped:(LR):enamorus::heatran::regieleki::tornadus-therian::ursaluna:

So, with all this in mind, as an example prediction, here's a list of mons we might have to sacrifice for the sake of preserving Tera.
:chien-pao: :espathra: :garganacl: :volcarona: :iron-valiant: :regieleki: :tornadus-therian:
Around 7 mons, which to me, isn't too much.
I think a restriction could potentially lower that number to 3 (pao, espa, leki) which is why I still lean towards team preview Tera as a first step.
Worst-case, though, the ban count could reach up to 16 if all of the B and C tier mons get banned with the intention of unbanning all of them post-Tera.

So, in summary:
  • Right now, Espathra is the only Uber banned from OU directly because of Tera. (Chien-Pao is a borderline case but may be manageable without Tera.)
  • From the current tier, there are only a handful of suspect-worthy Tera abusers - no more than 5.
  • Pokemon Home will add to that list of banned mons - Regieleki as the most obvious example but maybe a few others.
  • We will eventually reach a point where we as a community will have to decide between keeping Tera but banning around 5-10 mons, or restricting/banning Tera and freeing around 5-10 mons.
Honestly, Espathra was broken without Tera. The fact that you could just keep racking up FREE stacks of Stored Power through Speed Boost alone was enough to make it a major problematic threat. Tera just pushed it over the edge.
Garg isn't really a problematic Pokemon in my eyes right now, even with Tera. It's more just an annoyance because of its kit. Nothing more.
The jury is still out on Gambit, Valiant, Volc, and Pult, though.
 
I don't see how espathra would be broken without tera.

What pushes espathra over the edge is not only swapping its typing defensively (psychic - > fighting/fairy covers its weaknesses to common priority, dark moves, etc) but also giving itself coverage that it otherwise wouldn't have or wouldn't be strong enough with.

Tera Blast fighting invalidates its would be hard counters. Kingambit would be a solid counter to espathra as it'd require quite a few calm minds for non-stab dazzling gleam to be able to muscle it, however with tera blast fighting its reversed and tera fairy still gives dazzling gleam a free stab bonus.

Speed boost stored power sounds broken on paper but there's a ton of solid dark type checks to it. Just to give an example:

+2 0 SpA Espathra Dazzling Gleam vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 156-184 (45.7 - 53.9%) -- 42.6% chance to 2HKO
+2 252 SpA Espathra Dazzling Gleam vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 196-232 (57.4 - 68%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Choice Band Tyranitar Crunch vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Espathra: 434-512 (110.1 - 129.9%) -- guaranteed OHKO

Tyranitar devours espathra, and can easily revenge it even with dazzling gleam without any defensive investment.... until this funny button is clicked:

+2 252 SpA Tera Fairy Espathra Dazzling Gleam vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 294-348 (86.2 - 102%) -- 87.5% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
+3 0 SpA Tera Fairy Espathra Dazzling Gleam vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 288-342 (84.4 - 100.2%) -- 81.3% chance to OHKO after Stealth Rock
252+ Atk Choice Band Tyranitar Earthquake vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Tera Fairy Espathra: 277-327 (83.6 - 98.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after sandstorm damage
252+ Atk Choice Band Tyranitar Earthquake vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Tera Fairy Espathra: 181-213 (45.9 - 54%) -- 96.1% chance to 2HKO after sandstorm damage
+1 0 SpA Tera Fighting Espathra Tera Blast vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Tyranitar in Sand: 348-412 (102 - 120.8%) -- guaranteed OHKO

...and hard counter gone. Same happens to kingambit. You could theorectically check it with grimm, kingambit, t-tar, bisharp and lokix even.
 
So, in summary:
  • Right now, Espathra is the only Uber banned from OU directly because of Tera. (Chien-Pao is a borderline case but may be manageable without Tera.)
  • From the current tier, there are only a handful of suspect-worthy Tera abusers - no more than 5.
  • Pokemon Home will add to that list of banned mons - Regieleki as the most obvious example but maybe a few others.
  • We will eventually reach a point where we as a community will have to decide between keeping Tera but banning around 5-10 mons, or restricting/banning Tera and freeing around 5-10 mons.

I think you’re understating the amount of Pokémon we potentially ban due to Tera. You have the number at 5-10 while I think the number could potentially be closer to 10-15

Mew, Glastrier both immediately come to mind as stuff they could be broken under Tera. Honestly any set up sweeper that can naturally generate a free turn might Snowball since it can generate a second free turn with Tera
 
I'm going to go down the list of banned mons and I want to differentiate tera making it a Pokémon BETTER vs the ABILITY to tera which is what made it broken:

:Annihilape: - Tera made it broken, it would definitely been a bit easier to handle if you were bring checks and counters and it wasn't going straight to Water / Fairy Tera types

:Chi-Yu: - Tera did not make it broken, this is just a freakish Pokémon and probably should stay Uber after home release.

:Chien-Pao: - Was not broken because of tera (similar to Chi-Yu) but more manageable))

:Espathra: - Lol, no comment this mon abused different tera types to beat its counters that were immune to psychic moves such as Kingambit and Ting-Lu (Tera made it broken)

:Houndstone: - Last Respects is what made this mon Ubers, not Tera

:Iron Bundle: - This mon is close, but I think Tera made it better, its overall just a broken mon (without Tera) with it's very high speed, special attack, decent bulk and the ability to pivot with Flip Turn and spam Hydro Pump and Freeze Dry (Nothing can switch in on it).

:Flutter Mane: - Same deal with Iron Bundle, very high speed, very high special attack, and very high special defense with the ability to abuse Protosynthesis under the sun, it was a broken Pokémon without the need of tera. Don't forget it has access to moves like Calm Mind, Taunt, and Wish / Pain Split which imo puts it over the top.

:Palafin: - Same deal as the 2 right above, ability to Wave Crash on something that has base 160 attack, under rain and Jet Punch which is a 60 BP move (priority) is just way to easy to abuse and it going with Tera water made it unplayable in OU. I think it would be Uber without Tera.

Out of all the mons that were banned, 2 / 8 were banned strictly IMO because of them abusing tera. The others (6/8) tera was just the cherry on top lol.
 
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It's been barely a fortnight since Pao left and almost every viable team has a counter to this.
Infiltrator Dragapult - only better after Pao ban, S rank candidate

Unaware Dondozo - HO cannot afford to fit Choice locked mons that beat this

Ting-Lu - this Pokemon is guaranteed to always live a hit and phaze

Unaware Clodsire - self explanatory

Literally any special attacker that can chunk Orthworm

And finally, most certainly not the least, Big Dirge.
1)Kills momentum with Unaware
2)Teras to flip it's few checks on HO
3)Sets up while attacking through substitute

I'm mentioning specific Pokemon since most of you are giving specific examples as well.
I’ve played a lot of Grimm + Ortho Shed Tail recently and this post sums up a lot of the issues I ran into with it. Shed Tail easily dunks on many low/mid ladder players and when it works it feels super cheesy (which is why people probably compare it to baton pass even tho this is a bad comparison). However, without esparthra I’ve been struggling to break past all of the unaware bros and it’s much harder to win on the spot with a single sub from orthoworm. Good players also seem to find random ways to put pressure on orthoworm and make it harder to get a shed tail off. I honestly think using shed tail at high levels and playing against it requires skill, although I can understand why people may not like it for being matchup fishy.

Speaking of shedtail screens HO, I really like moxie Tera flying Gyarados with waterfall/Tera blast/taunt/DD. People not expecting taunt can win games on the spot if they try and phase you or setup themselves (eg bulk up Corv). Flying is also a great offensive typing in this meta and it’s not hard for Gyarados to get 2 DD with sub + screens then start snowballing with moxie. Cons are it takes up your Tera and struggles against unaware bros, but otherwise puts in a lot of work.
 
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I think you’re understating the amount of Pokémon we potentially ban due to Tera. You have the number at 5-10 while I think the number could potentially be closer to 10-15

Mew, Glastrier both immediately come to mind as stuff they could be broken under Tera. Honestly any set up sweeper that can naturally generate a free turn might Snowball since it can generate a second free turn with Tera
:mew: Mew is one I was considering, but
a) it's unranked in Natdex OU rn which obviously has a lot more powercreep from megas etc but it seems weird for it to be basically irrelevant in a similar tier if you're saying it's potentially banworthy in our format
b) in gen 9 it lost all recovery besides Drain Punch and Rest, lost Cosmic Power, lost some of its offensive moves in Knock Off, Sucker Punch, Explosion and Triple Axel, and lost utility in Toxic, Defog and Super Fang.
c) tera doesn't really change mew's counterplay - you're still limited by power on DD sets and speed on SD/NP sets and coverage on double dance sets. yeah sure if your opponent doesn't predict you you'll get a free turn of setup but Mew is not unstoppable after 1 turn.

:glastrier: Glastrier is not broken with Tera. A new type doesn't suddenly send a ZU mon to Ubers. I've used it in a Gen 9 draft league and it's still good on TR teams but it still suffers from a lack of reliable recovery & super slow speed allowing it to be revenge-killed. It already has Ice/Ground/Fighting coverage so rarely needs more unless it wants to tech to lure Corv or something; I just don't think Tera Glastrier is any more broken than a non-Tera'd Melmetal or Ursaluna.

As for the exact number, it's hard to say right now. I genuinely don't believe there are many mons besides Espathra and Regieleki that are balanced without Tera and broken with Tera. And hey even if it does surpass 10, at least that will be a clear sign that we need to take action. I just don't think we can make that call right now.

Honestly, Espathra was broken without Tera. The fact that you could just keep racking up FREE stacks of Stored Power through Speed Boost alone was enough to make it a major problematic threat. Tera just pushed it over the edge.
Garg isn't really a problematic Pokemon in my eyes right now, even with Tera. It's more just an annoyance because of its kit. Nothing more.
The jury is still out on Gambit, Valiant, Volc, and Pult, though.

Non-Tera Espathra can't break past some of the best mons in the tier: :ting-lu: :kingambit: and :gholdengo:, plus almost any Tera Dark mon. Terastalisation is the reason why Espathra is Ubers.

I agree with your comments on Garg, though. I wouldn't support a ban at this stage. I just included it because it's one of the best Tera abusers and it's seemingly pretty controversial right now.
 
I noticed that the results have the "qualified" and the "general" as 2 different categories.

What exactly is the "general"?
Is it suppossed to be both qualified and unqualified or it is suppossed to be both?

Anyway, I am glad that the community seems to be okay with gholdengo.
I do not know what this question means, but the general is everyone who responded, including qualified.
He asking about what the difference is
General is the majority of the community playing here, people like you and me
Qualified are people that have some sort of milestone under their belt, like top 150 on the ladder, getting reqs, making it far in an official SV OU tournament, etc.
 
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