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The Everything NFL Thread - 2013-2014 Edition

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All right, with the offseason upon us it's time to look at my (and every other Lions fan's) favorite part of the NFL season: the Draft! I'll stick my first mock draft in hide tags so I don't flood the thread. I'll probably post some explanations later, but I'm tired right now.

1. Houston Texans – Johnny Manziel – QB – Texas A&M

2. St. Louis Rams – Jake Matthews – OT – Texas A&M

3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jadeveon Clowney – DE – South Carolina

4. Cleveland Browns – Blake Bortles – QB – UCF

5. Oakland Raiders – Teddy Bridgewater – QB – Louisville

6. Atlanta Falcons – Taylor Lewan – OT – Michigan

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Greg Robinson – OT – Auburn

8. Minnesota Vikings – Derek Carr – QB – Fresno State

9. Buffalo Bills – Anthony Barr – LB – UCLA

10. Detroit Lions – Sammy Watkins – WR - Clemson

11. Tennessee Titans – Ha Ha Clinton-Dix – S – Alabama

12. New York Giants – Khalil Mack – LB – Buffalo

13. St. Louis Rams – Marquise Lee – WR – USC

14. Chicago Bears – Ra'Shede Hageman – DT – Minnesota

15. Pittsburgh Steelers – Cyrus Kouandijo – OT – Alabama

16. Baltimore Ravens – Kelvin Benjamin – WR – Florida State

17. Dallas Cowboys – Darqueze Dennard – CB – Michigan State

18. New York Jets – Justin Gilbert – CB – Oklahoma State

19. Miami Dolphins – Zach Martin – OT – Notre Dame

20. Arizona Cardinals – C.J. Mosley – LB – Alabama

21. Green Bay Packers – Eric Ebron – TE – North Carolina

22. Philadelphia Eagles – Loucheiz Purifoy – CB – Florida

23. Kansas City Chiefs – Mike Evans – WR – Texas A&M

24. Cincinnati Bengals – Marcus Robinson – CB – Florida

25. San Diego Chargers – Ryan Shazier – LB – Ohio State

26. Cleveland Browns – Jeremy Hill – RB – LSU

27. New Orleans Saints – Aaron Colvin – CB – Oklahoma

28. Carolina Panthers – Allen Robinson – WR – Penn State

29. New England Patriots – Stephon Tuitt – DT – Notre Dame

30. San Francisco 49ers – Louis Nix III – DT – Notre Dame

31. Denver Broncos – Kony Ealy – DE – Missouri

32. Seattle Seahawks – Austin Seferian-Jenkins – TE – Washington
 
Giants ain't taking a LB in the first round... I'd be shocked if they took one at all this year. LBs are a waste on a 4-3 defense. Another DT/DE would have a greater impact. This is the team that won a SB with Chase Blackburn(coming off the street) and Antonio Pierce. Then again they did take an OL in the first round last year, breaking a long streak so they might want to break one that goes all the way back to the 80s. Personally I dislike TEs and LBs drafted high so no thank you. It's 50/50 between an ol or DE with a CB as the wild card.
 
Byrne said:
Chances of Sammy Watkins falling to pick 16?

I've been praying for that ever since I watched Clemson-Ohio State...
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Will never ever ever happen. He's not falling out of the top 10. He'd be my dream pick but ain't happening for us unless we trade up.
 
Hope the Niners draft a good CB, I keep seeing "experts" say another WR or DL, but why? WR is more than covered with Crabtree/Boldin (they better fucking resign Boldin) and Davis might not be a WR, but he may as well be counted like one if dumbass Kaepernick would throw to him more. DL is largely set, CB/pass protection has been the weakspot for the last few years. So a truly great CB will make the difference if there's any good ones left. Or they could move up easily for one, since quite a few players are due for extensions like Smith and Kaepernick, they really only have a few draft needs besides depth building. I suppose a Gore replacement will need to be found and built up if the Lattimore pick doesn't pan out (wasn't he supposed to be in the same league as Lacy in terms of draft position before getting his knee injured?).
 
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Stallion said:
Will never ever ever happen. He's not falling out of the top 10. He'd be my dream pick but ain't happening for us unless we trade up.
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I honestly wish we would. All Balt really needs from what I can tell, and I watched all 16 games this year, is upgrades to the offensive line and a true #1 receiver because Torrey Smith is certainly a better 2 than a 1, I mean seriously. Our defense wasn't exactly the elite squad it used to be, but that's just what fucking happens when you literally lose multiple hall of famers and the only leaders your team has. The defense isn't much of a worry for me at any of the positions, really. Not compared to the offense anyway.
 
Shinryu said:
Hope the Niners draft a good CB, I keep seeing "experts" say another WR or DL, but why? WR is more than covered with Crabtree/Boldin (they better fucking resign Boldin) and Davis might not be a WR, but he may as well be counted like one if dumbass Kaepernick would throw to him more. DL is largely set, CB/pass protection has been the weakspot for the last few years. So a truly great CB will make the difference if there's any good ones left. Or they could move up easily for one, since quite a few players are due for extensions like Smith and Kaepernick, they really only have a few draft needs besides depth building. I suppose a Gore replacement will need to be found and built up if the Lattimore pick doesn't pan out (wasn't he supposed to be in the same league as Lacy in terms of draft position before getting his knee injured?).
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because their #3 receiver had 12 catches and was dropped off the team, and their #4 receiver only played in 6 games (and only had 9 catches). teams need depth in case their current starters get hurt (ie when Crabtree went down), and they need players that will step up and serve as replacements for when players leave (Boldin doesn't have much time left even assumed he plays well next season, and Crabtree is a free agent on a team that will have cap issues and has to pay Kaepernick). a WR is really the only way to improve the weakest position on the team and the weakest part of the offense, and will work out both short-term and over the next several years.
 
IMO, Kaep shouldn't get more than $10 mil/year tops, he's too damn inconsistent still. Yeah he went to the Super Bowl and NFC Championship game, but both times he failed to score that final TD that would've won the game (lacking clutch factor?), and he's largely gotten by with the strength of Gore and the Defense. But I'm sure they'll probably overreact and put him in the $15mil/year range >.>

I agree with needing depth though, shame Manningham will be leaving since he'd probably be too expensive to keep relative to his value (especially with his injuries). If they could find some odd way to keep him for cheap as #3 that would be ideal, otherwise let him walk. I guess it comes down to who's available at pick #30, but they should choose the best player left regardless of position that far down.
 
the quarterbacks now have almost all of the leverage in contract negotiations. signing any mid-upper level quarterback is going to cost at least $15 million annually, in a league where Matt Schaub (15.5 million annually), Eli Manning (16.2), Jay Cutler (18.1), and Joe Flacco (20.1) all make north of that number.

teams need a quarterback to win, and finding one in the draft is obviously a hit-or-miss situation. once teams find a guy that they can laud as the franchise quarterback, they have to pay a lot in order to keep him there in the first place. if San Francisco or Seattle don't pay Kaepernick or Wilson their $16-18 million, you know that Jacksonville or Tampa Bay or Cleveland will be right there to write that check. teams just can't risk three or four (or more) years of mediocrity trying to find the next guy when someone who's good enough is sitting right there, especially if that "good enough" is good enough to be a perennial playoff contender (ie Ravens).
 
adding to that, i feel like the super bowl was a perfect indicator of what formula will win championships most consistently in this era:

good, cheap (cheap soon to mean "relative to other qbs" i guess) quarterbacks

wilson is a good QB, protects the ball, can sometimes make enough plays to win games for you when you need him to (and will only improve in this regard)

he's also cheap as fuck, earning a little over 0.5 million this season

compare that to the quarterbacks in killah's post ^ or to peyton manning

and this explains why seattle was noticeably a better team all around. at this moment, seattle has the perfect roster formula for success. and that's the tragedy of it, because as soon as wilson's contract is up, seattle becomes a worse team for it. to have so much money tied up in one position, even if it's quarterback, is detrimental to the rest of your roster. you basically have to make up for that lost money with cheaper players, who are generally worse. the worst thing you can do is spend a shit ton of money on a QB that doesn't really warrant it (see killah's post). or, to a lesser degree, are stuck to a QB that isn't really that expensive or bad but also isn't cheap or very good (an andy dalton type comes to mind). because chances are that QB will still eventually end up getting paid because it's not as much of a risk.

i don't know if this pattern will continue, i would think it's unsustainable. i guess it depends on how quickly QB salaries rise compared to the salary cap (TV money).
 
I don't know Steeler. Sure the last two years in a row have seen lower paid QBs win the SB, but it still tends to be completely dominated by big ticket players. Look past the previous two years at the decade+ prior to that. Your SB winners were Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Peyton, Roethlisberger, and Eli (yeah I know he sucks but he's still expensive). Obviously the last two years have shown us it is POSSIBLE to win a SB with a lesser QB (and Wilson may yet turn into an elite QB anyway), but to win it consistently you need a top 10 franchise QB. I just don't believe a team can have sustained success with the formula you are proposing.
 
Steeler said:
i think a franchise QB is the easiest/best way to have regular season success, but not necessarily playoff success
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Again, I'd say the overwhelming majority of teams that have been successful in the playoffs have had a great franchise QB at the helm. I'm willing to wager if you go even further back you'll probably find similar patterns when you look at successful playoff teams and Super Bowl winners. Obviously there will always be exceptions, and a great franchise QB is never a GUARANTEE of success, but more often than not it pans out that way.
 
I think that goes with what steeler is saying. A really good qb is usually worth 8 wins minimum unless the team is just down to the bones in term of talent so that's why the playoffs is filled with good quaterbacks.. They're the teams that through 16 games can be most consistent. Then they get blasted in the playoffs by talented teams that have recently come off bad stretches so they can play defense and run the ball. All teams basically follow this path of having a really good defense/team, making the playoffs once in a while, finally putting it together when they find a franchise qb, constantly win 8+ games every season until the talent in the team gets older(or just leaves to other teams) and the normally good team just collapses. This affects these teams more because a franchise qb takes away so much cap space that you really can't restock the talent and most players will leave after their rookie contract is up. It's basically a sick cycle that actually works because of how fast it happens.

That's why I always root to lose games as they have a much greater impact down the line. Teams should really think about phoning it in every two years so they can grab a top ten player..
 
ITT: Good teams have good players.

Theoretically, having to pay a ton to even mediocre QBs doesn't really hurt a team's ability to win relative to anyone else if everyone is forced into doing it. But is anyone going to buck the trend and be willing to NOT overpay and attempt to find success with a better remaining 52? No more than coaches go for it on 4th and Short around midfield or regularly attempt 2pt conversions.

I don't think the "have rookies who vastly outperform their rookie contract so you have more $$$ for proven players elsewhere" formula for success is one that is very repeatable, though. Good on Seattle for capitalizing in Wilson's window but in two years when his contract is up and his price goes from <1mil to >20mil, that time is over unless Pete Carroll is a Bill Belichick-esque evil mastermind.
 
Lombardi and Banner out for the Browns, they probably won't be missed by the sound of it. They engineered 1 good move (in hindsight) by trading away Richardson for a new 1st rounder, but everything else was bleh. And overall it streamlines their front office some.
 
I'm a fan of the Panthers, and I feel as though we really need some help for Cam. A wide receiver would probably be best for us to go for in the draft. LaFell and Ginn are decent, but I don't feel as though they make enough of an impact. Stevie is getting on and we need to think for the future (of course, Steve will always play with a chip on his shoulder no matter how old he gets). A running back is also a position that also might need some reinforcements. DeAngelo hasn't been that great the past few years and Stewart is injury prone.
 
Panthers could definitely use a good WR, Ginn can't do more than field punt returns honestly, as much as teams have tried using him as a WR he always ends back up returning.
 
The Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin report is out. Results: Incognito is an asshole, Martin has no idea what conflict resolution is, and Joe Philbin shouldn't be coaching pee wee football, never mind pro football.
 
Salary cap is projected to increase more than what was originally guessed, a full 5% increase up to around $130 million. Last year it was $123 million, and the year before that it was $120 million.

It'll delay the super-contract driven salary cap issues for a little while, but they're still inevitable. Salaries (especially for QBs) are just rising too quickly for this system to be sustainable, unless a large cap increase every year becomes the norm.
 
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