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You didn't think you could get away with a team tournament that didn't include any StatsPostingᵀᴹ by yours truly, did you?
First and foremost, I would like to congratulate teams UK, USM, OCE, and SPA for being guaranteed entry into the main stage! Their current records mean that no further game results can shift them off the top 5 slots.
Regrettably, the reverse news is also true, so I'd like to thank teams Mexico, Bangladesh, and Guatemala for a wonderful tournament. It's been great watching matches, and I always love seeing both new and returning players to this event!
Canada and PoPo are still in the fight for 5th place, however the only way the results change is if PoPo loses both of their remaining 2 games, and Canada wins all 7 that they have left.
Now, onto the stats:
While working on Fantasy League, I've made a system that simulates a full round-robin of the tournament, and predicts which players will win/lose individual games. This works similar to mystatspostingfromlastyearsWCOR, but instead of using GXE, I'm leveraging Amaranth's Random Battles All-time Tournament stats, and using an inverse beta coefficient. This heavily favours experienced players over rookies, which is why you can see my algorithm really didn't like teams PoP or Gua - Had I been focusing more on predicting this tour, and not the main stage, I would have used a different approach.
The first thing to note is how well Poland+Portugal exceeded expectations, achieving almost twice as many wins as predicted. Even if the algorithm had it out to get you, getting this score with almost entirely made up of rookies is very impressive, and you should feel proud of your achievement! I can't wait to watch your players as they play more rands, both in main stage and beyond. The future looks bright!
We also see that despite strong showings, both USM and Oceania have slighly underperformed their predicted winrates, but not team UK! Right on the money with 31 wins!
The main underperformers this year were Canada and Bangladesh. Bangladesh due to reasons far beyond the scope of todays math lecture (I sincerely hope each and every one of you is safe, and are able to find yourselves in a country that treats you better than it has before, and far better than it is now)
Canada's case is unfortunate, but stems from a number of players going 0-4, as well as the fact that they have 7 games remaining - which for the purposes of my math, just count as losses (not the best method, I know - but alas)
On the individual side of things, some players well outperformed expectations, and I'd like to highlight them too:
Texas Cloverleaf and Mrbannana45 (4-0) had amazing runs this year. With the algorithm predicting both of you would get less than 1 win (0.8 and 0.86) you ended up completely flipping the script - getting a clean perfect 4-0 record!
ZeroKitss (3-1) beat the algorithm by the largest margin - with a predicted score of 0.3, your 3-1 record means you did more than 10 times better than the math thought you would!
At the end of the day, what all this goes to show is that my math can be very, very wrong - and you know what? That's a good thing! Because it means that you can try to beat my math in the upcoming Fantasy League! Where you can build a team of players, priced based on how well my algorithm thinks they will do. Think you can lead a team to victory, then keep your eyes peeled, because the thread will be dropping soonᵀᴹ!RIGHTNOW
Told you Petros, Oceania ain’t washed. Now that we are qualified for the main tournament, we are going to win the whole thing and prove you wrong, lets go Oce!!!
Calling act on behalf of glop for his match vs blaziblack hes reached out to them to try and get it done without any luck getting an answer. I reached out to managers in discord on Thursday and received no answer as well.
