Tournament World Cup of Randbats 2023 - Regular Season

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Dark Pulse

Dark Pulse

Now that all my games are done, and we're less than 100 games away from the group stage completing, it's time for everyone's favourite math class!

This is the current standings (plus 2 games that apparently never got reported) sorted by my predictive algorithm.
The first 5 columns are identical to the official sheet.
The next 3 in lighter colours are game difference, matches unplayed, and best possible score (if that team won every game from now on)
the last 3 columns are my algorithm output, the rank my algorithm predicts each team will end in, and the difference between their current and predicted rank.

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things are just now starting to settle into place. A week ago I had swings of teams climbing or falling 6 positions in the rankings, now the biggest swings are +3/-2
Despite what the model says, the race for 6th-8th place is still very close. Any team in the current top 12 could easily snatch those last slots away.
As a result, USW needs to be careful - stats say they have the toughest opponents left, and so model predicts they will fall out of their 8th place slot. China has outperformed previous releases of the model - skyrocketing all the way to a predicted 1st place finish. Many experienced players told me not to underestimate China, and clearly this shows the numbers aren't everything.
Bangladesh had a strong start, but have now fallen back to neutral. Earlier models predicted they would end outside of the top12, but now it's thinking they'll just barely hold on to a qualifying slot. - Despite all this, I'm still rooting for you guys. Joy Bangla!
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The race still isn't over. Upset wins can and will happen. Best of luck to everyone who still have games left to play!
 
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