Playoffs Smogon Tour 17 Playoffs - Finals [Won by M Dragon]

[Style_Dota]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

"We can see from the above that, if one flips a fair coin 21 times, then the probability of 21 heads is 1 in 2,097,152. However, the probability of flipping a headafter having already flipped 20 heads in a row is simply 1⁄2. This is an application of Bayes' theorem."

I was stating the total probability, not the probability for each instance, which I already stated is constant. Yes, the odds of hitting the third Focus Blast after hitting two is still 70%, but the odds of hitting three Focus Blasts in a row is still 34.3%. This is the definition of total probability.

I know how this works, I do tutor this after all.

Edit: I do realize that each individual Focus Blast is treated as an independent event, thus making each probability a 70% chance, I was simply explaining what conflict's logic was.

 

[Tesung]

It seems like we all know basic math and are each saying it in our own creative and retarded way!

Anyways, leftiez vs m dragon
Say what you want but he played like a god in bw and first half of xy despite shit matchup, I would have more confidence in this pick but he is down 1-0 every time from dpp

 

[PDC]

pdc's jirachi was reincarnated into that ferrothorn or some shit.

 

[CTC]

Tesung can't tell if sarcasm cuz nigga literally didn't have to make a single play to win in bw. Soon as bloo makes a mistake vswitching gastro has a chance to burn venu, soon as venu is burnd or dead it was over. Not rlly all that hard to switch into gastro multiple times when u have a matchup like that vs a team w 1 pseudo ground resist. This is why I hate shitass sun in bw its garbage af.
In xy my nigga got played hard when matchup was even. Zard destroyd one team and digger plus tar destroyd the other. Nigga clearly got fuckin played if u watched the replay, he had two chances to do damage w digger but was restricted to 1 kill and ur tellin me he played well? Nigga got doubled to shit and allowd Zard to kill his entire team so he could rely on a miss and that's considered impressive? Fuck this aids edumacate yaselvs bandwagoners this nigga still ass cheeks

 

[CTC]

Conflict the reason theyr calling u out is cuz first of all ur arguing for a (BAN ME PLEASE) and secondly u misunderstood lefties' down syndrome statement. The argument ur supporting is if lefties had said "he's likely to miss 1 fblast" be4 bloo hit the 1st one. Then ur blah blah about the probability of the sequence is right. This nigga said it after he had already hit 2 which is a clear sign of autism, u should just pitch in with everyone and call him a lucky and bad Down syndrome aids carryin figgernaggot

 

[panamaxis]

lol

go dragoon

 

[-Leon-]

Supporting M Drag cuz he beat Masterclass *-*

 

[Malekith]

 

[Asterya]

Sorry M Dragon i always love u, but this banana eater will have the trophy.
#LEFTIEZST17.

 

[Lasagne]

lol this thread

go mdragon

 

[Alastor Law]

Dragon to win it all :]

 

[Terraquaza]

Maestro Dragoon

#Real Madrid
#MDragontourwinner
#Spainwinningworldcupagain

 

[Fakes]

MDragon will win for sure just because Leftiez sucks hard and only haxxed Bloo
I would be amused and mad if some idiot like leftiez which cant even play dpp in his life wins this shit LOOL

 

[marioland]

Im not acting like a bitch im saying to all of you it's fucking pokemon, why are u annoying me like that while it's not fucking my fault ? I just said the focus blast miss was obv cause it's fucking pokemon lol and i was on fire for the rematch so can u please stop acting like i was a bitch when i really tried to be fair at the end. and i assume im happy cause im here to win and not cry at people curses sry + don't fucking tell me if i wins i'll be the first who have won a tour by using haxx, by saying it im talking for BKC and his last ST playoffs run. so leave me alone and get it down pls.

gl mdragon ;)

you're fucking right man!!

 

[Inflikted]

I'd say leftiez but my predictions for semis were totally wrong so M Dragon! *-*

No wait i dunno ._.

Gl both, i'm really looking forward to see these matches

 

[-Manu-]

Leftiez, thaht fucking nigga since he won Ojama he's unstoppable, French luck, French Swag, finally he will be a Star !

My Nigga

 

[WhiteQueen]

I like leftiez; he's nice black guy. Going with M Dragon though since he's my idol.

 

[Adversary]

I'm impressed, good job Leftiez, at this point idk who will win

 

[M Dragon]

We are playing next Monday at 5 PM EST

 

[Joeyboy]

Bloo has so much class

Respect
you should've won that though :/ dat miss and para

 

[danilo]

Let's all take a moment to suck Bloo's d**k

 

[Anacleto]

I usually just lurk but I followed with interest the discussion on probabilities and I'd like to jump in and expose my point of view.

While Blarajan's arguments are correct, his conclusions are misleading.

The mistake here is to forget about the past history of the game and to decide who has the better chances of winning by looking at one certain turn. It's true that, upon clicking FB for the third time, Bloo had the 70% chance of winning, but from the start he needed to hit all his FB to win the game, which has a small odd of happening!
If someone gives me a million dollars if I hit 100 Focus Blasts, I won't think I'm favoured cause if I hit the first 99 then I have 70% chance of winning, that's retarded.

So in the end if we consider only the FB hits (bad approximation cause there are countless other factors to keep into consideration, but w/e), odds were definitely in Leftiez favour, so he has a point lol.

Good luck to both players for finals :)

 

[Chirac]

GG, well explained, man.

Sometimes my pupils ask me "Why do we have to study this math-shit?", now I have a strong answer.

 

[dadoux]

Lefitez will win BW/XY with a team full of rocky helmet/iron barbs/rough skin mons

 

[tennisace]

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics. -Leftiez, 2014