Okay, time for a wall. I'm probably never going to wall again in the thread after this.
First, the Haunted Diamond wagon 'starts' with Spiffy's reads list in #340. Immediately after is this gem:
wouldn't it be fun if this led to me getting lynched
unvote
vote haunted diamond
This is really interesting, because he says this in a way that indicates he
already knows that Haunted Diamond is scum.
Mental note to check for ButteredToffee's posts to Spiffy as the latter gets wagoned up; if he starts cooling down towards that slot, then this (#342) was likely a buddying attempt.
Celever's #344 is really bad with an HD scumflip; look at this:
Oh, interesting. Haunted Shadow is now your number 1 scum read? But I thought...
Nice to see how much you were reading into and thinking about my defense earlier!
Anyway, I'm sorta tempted to join you on the HS lynch. I'd expressed earlier that I was displeased with him (which is what made you say the above remark) so a bit of pressure couldn't hurt. Though at the same time sunny HAS been pressured and still hasn't done shit. He's still my top scum read, soooooooo I'm gonna keep voting for him n_n.
Spiffy, why have you ranked sunny as the 5th most likely town? Honestly it seems like it's there just to take a jab at me, because your comments for the likes of ButteredToast and Pokeguy are a lot better than what you said about sunny. Also confused as to why they are lower than von, who was fairly scummy in your eyes (you were literally talking about how fighting is a useful scum tactic yesterday). I'd like a little more explanation with your reads please.
Haunted Diamond ~ Has kept contribution to a minimum, focusing on key points of discussion and not branching out his opinions. He half-heartedly tunneled Jalmont for most of Day 1 (but not too much so as to not draw masses of attention to himself) and then, like Spiffy pointed out, randomly hopped on the Cancerous bw to try and lynch him. I'd definitely be OK with his lynch today, and I expressed a want for him to do more before Spiffy posted the read, so this isn't copying him :v.
Snipped the unimportant parts. Note how he's setting up to vote HD, yet doesn't want to immediately support it. He wants to make sure we know that his suspicions are separate from Spiffy's, yet he wants to snipe at Spiffy's reads. This looks like scum trying to manipulate the game state.
Pokeguy looks pretty town for #345. It doesn't look like a bus vote.
i could go for either haunted diamond or cancerous, my switch to haunted diamond was a kneejerk reaction to being lumped in with him as best potential mafia candidates
after thinking about it, if haunted diamond turns out village then well shit, and if he turns out mafia it hardly cleans me, i know i'm village but i can't exactly convince you with just that statement, so on balance if you examine it objectively i think haunted diamond has greater odds of being mafia than me and lynching him is a good course for the village to take
IDK, I think this post is town. I'm not sure what the game plan is here if they're both scumpartners.
Aaaaaand rssp1 starts white-knighting HD in posts 368/369. Not indicative by itself, but interesting to note that there has been almost universal support for HD-scum out of the several people that had posted on it. If he buckles later, this is probably scum.
no need to elaborate, i know what you mean, and yeah having someone like spiffy or von clarifying their reasoning [on Haunted Diamond] would be nice
aaaaagh this looks scum. I can't tell with this guy.
One thing to note is that Fate ends up unvoting the primary counterwagon to HD in #386. This indicates town.
I don't believe for a second that Spiffy is town for trying to get HD to claim his power role.
Scum are more interested in finding power role I already went into why that's a proscum stance, and the fact that Spiffy started the day phase with this skeeves me out.
Lol at everyone crucifying me for wanting Haunted Diamond to claim his role. “Detrimental to the town” my ass. ^_^
Although reading a bit further in the past, I came across this gem:
Plus now that you've softclaimed power role I'm obviously not gonna vote for you. This doesn't mean that I 100% believe you.
Huh.
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Mental note for day 2: Anyone who starts the day trying to pass off HD as town for the post restriction is scum and the announcer is therefore most likely scum.
as for haunted's posting restriction, it seems to be a deliberate effort to associate him with the announcer role. from what i've seen of the announcements so far, the announcer role couldn't possibly be described as a power role in this game, subjective to haunted's interpretation of course, so i don't think announcer is haunted's true role. so why did the mafia stick him with that posting restriction? random trolling? or do they really suspect him of being the announcer after seeing the announcement? does the restriction actually prevent him from posting his night results (assuming he has any) or maybe the mafia put a restriction on one of their own to make them look village?
Here's another instance where Fatecrashers makes a statement that hints he knows more about the setup than everyone else does. Most of this is fluffy, but note he never once mentions a thought of the announcer being town in this post. He's probably scum that either knows the announcer is scum or is trying to muddy the waters.
I don't know! Ask the mafia??
From what I assume post restrictor must be a mafia role, unless we have a troll town...
Edit:
More Cowbell I'm just gonna edit the text into my post every time I forget it...
"Hi everybody! I'm the village announcer! While I'm sad to see the Safeguard go, judging by how the day went, it could so easily have been me instead, so here's hoping we don't repeat the same mistakes tomorrow!"
Announcer is almost certainly town.
Celever pushes HD in #581 on shockingly small stuff. Scum are much more likely to pick up on the little scumtells than town are; he also looks incredibly confident in parts and almost indecisive in other parts of that post, all the way down to saying that he's just a feasible lynch after saying before that it's obvious he was coached. He then follows it up with a statement that Sunny's a good lynch for not being around. The backing off of #612 fits into this pretty well; I especially don't like how he's waiting for Spiffy to add to it before dropping it completely.
And now Spiffy is voting Haunted Diamond entirely for not claiming his power role. Good god. I'm not buying that the 'not voting for soft claiming a power role is for day 1 only' defense because that was used as a reason to do
the exact opposite.
Celever #618: Eh. I'd think town would have made that connection earlier on when it was being discussed, not after the discussion was virtually closed, especially for someone you already think is scum.
Von, I have very limited mafia experience but that doesn't mean I do not understand high level strategies and reasoning. I have caught on to some things of how Spiffy is playing and I am certain that he is playing with a specific end game goal in mind. I think I get his motives and where he is going with his actions. And I find it ingenious and am in support of taking it to it's conclusion. If he does not pick up the argument I damn well might just because of the possible information gained from it.
Okay,
WHOA. This statement completely destroys any towncred he got up to this point. Town don't play towards a specific end game goal, no matter what role they pick up. There's way too much uncertainty and potential for plans to go wrong for it to be remotely feasible. Scum have to play for a specific end goal because they have to plan to get mislynches all the way to the end of the game. If anything, this is a scumtell.
If Spiffy or ButteredToast ever flip scum, the other should be flipped ASAP.
Jalmont's #646-647 is scumlean. Muddying the waters and completely ignoring the conversation on flipped scum doesn't look great for him.
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I'm stopping at the end of page 26 for right now.
TL;DR:
1. Celever and Spiffy both look a lot worse with an HD scumflip. One thing of note is that they're very very unlikely scum with each other.
2. If Spiffy is scum, ButteredToast is his partner.
3. Fatecrashers and Jalmont are scumleans, Fatecrashers moreso.
4. Pokeguy and VonFiedler are well within town range.