GSW in 4
Blazers in 6
OKC in 7
Spurs in 4
------------
Cavs in 5
Celtics in 7
Miami 6
Raptors 6
Blazers in 6
OKC in 7
Spurs in 4
------------
Cavs in 5
Celtics in 7
Miami 6
Raptors 6
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Official NBA 15-16' Season Thread
- Thread starter trikx_insane
- Start date
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The NBA 2016 Playoffs are finally here! Admittedly, I haven’t been paying too much attention to the regular season this year. I’ve watched maybe a total less than 15 full games. I’ve been pre-occupied with other interests I’ve tried to put more of a focus on this year; however, it doesn’t mean I haven’t been following the league at least statistically.
We now say goodbye to Kobe Bryant, possibly the most popular player in the last 20 years outside of Shaq. His impact was definitely felt for some time. Soon we may say goodbye to Tim Duncan as well but I’ll save those tears for when it actually happens. We have two historically winning teams (most notably the Golden State Warriors) coming into the playoffs, and the eastern conference has finally found some fight in it. It should be an interesting next two months to see the prevailing western powerhouse come against the eventual King of the East in LeBron James once again. Or do any of the other teams below them have something to say about it first?
I’m going to start with the eastern conference this year since their match-ups appear to be more interesting to me on paper. The western conference is riddled with injured or disappointing teams going up against powerhouses… a far too predictable first-round in my eyes; more than usual from that side of the country, anyway.
We now say goodbye to Kobe Bryant, possibly the most popular player in the last 20 years outside of Shaq. His impact was definitely felt for some time. Soon we may say goodbye to Tim Duncan as well but I’ll save those tears for when it actually happens. We have two historically winning teams (most notably the Golden State Warriors) coming into the playoffs, and the eastern conference has finally found some fight in it. It should be an interesting next two months to see the prevailing western powerhouse come against the eventual King of the East in LeBron James once again. Or do any of the other teams below them have something to say about it first?
I’m going to start with the eastern conference this year since their match-ups appear to be more interesting to me on paper. The western conference is riddled with injured or disappointing teams going up against powerhouses… a far too predictable first-round in my eyes; more than usual from that side of the country, anyway.
(1) Cleveland Cavaliers versus (8) Detroit Pistons
“If you’re Miguel Cabrera and you don’t have a hole, good luck.” – Stan Van Gundy
“If you’re Miguel Cabrera and you don’t have a hole, good luck.” – Stan Van Gundy
Deeetroit basketball! The Pistons are back! The Pistons are back! Stan Van Gundy finally makes his return to the playoffs, and now he gets a rematch with LeBron James since 2009 with the Orlando Magic. What will the outcome be?
Okay, just kidding. We already know what the outcome will be. The question I will be asking myself during this series is.. what would it potentially take for Cleveland to lose?Well, looking at their stats during losses relative to wins, Cleveland loses when they shoot worse from the field, rebound worse, and their isoball doesn’t phase out. What can Detroit do to play into these weaknesses?
Well, rebounding is probably self-explanatory as Detroit is one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the league; but it begs the question to say they could do this four out of seven games with Andre Drummond on his own. This is his first playoff series, and he’s going up against big men who are not slouches in rebounding. Love, Thompson, and Mozgov are all excellent big men in their own right when it comes to rebounding the ball. If Drummond has great offensive games coupled with okay free throw shooting, he can give Detroit a decent shot at winning a game.
Perimeter wise, it’s… not really close. Reggie Jackson is like a hot pocket. Either he’s super hot or super cold. Most of his points come from pick-and-rolling with Drummond (you can expect Gundy to pick the hell out of Irving/Love). However, I don’t think Drummond/Jackson pick-and-roll is lethal enough to propel them to a series win no matter how bad defensively Love and Irving are.
Three-point shooting will also be very important in this series. Cleveland is the superior three-point shooting team by far where and has it as their calling hard where as Detroit.. not so much. Detroit does a decent job defending the three, but they don’t excel at shooting it even when they’re open. Outside of Jodie Meeks, I don’t think they have any serious threat from beyond the arc. If they aren’t defending Cleveland at a good enough rate, that only makes their margin for error on shooting with Cleveland that much smaller. With Frye into the mix, if Drummond is caught trying to guard either Love or Frye out in the perimeter, I can expect lulzy results. It completely nullifies his shotblocking and a small Cleveland team that may lose in rebounding may come on top offensively enough.
Kyrie versus Reggie will be interesting, but my money’s on Kyrie since he’s just naturally the more talented point guard. Kyrie can get his whenever he wants while also being surrounded by superior shooters whereas Reggie depends on a poor free throw shooting big and mediocre 3-point shooters around him. Reggie’s going to see some difficult coverage from time to time so it’ll be infinitely easier for Kyrie to get in rhythm for these reasons alone.
This series is really going to come down to who can just shoot better from the field; because if Cleveland shoots too good, then there won’t be offensive rebounds to claim. No offensive rebounds means Detroit is shit out of luck if they aren’t making long-distance shots (you can tell I’ll be emphasizing the three-point shot a lot more this year). They aren’t the type of team to force turnovers either. They play above-average defense by just being in the right place, contesting shots, and getting the rebound; but that isn’t exactly a good recipe for controlling the tempo against iso-heavy teams. So how will Detroit get their points here exactly?
LeBron first-round series are typically short anyway, and I don’t expect that to change much this year. Home court, intangibles, experience, talent, depth, shooting, defense, and a fresh LeBron James. The only match-up that would make them hustle a bit would be Drummond and that guy just doesn’t have what it takes… yet. There are just too many big men on the other side for him to contend with, bangers and shooters alike.
Cleveland wins if: They make shots. …. That’s pretty much it.
Detroit wins if: Drummond is amazing on both ends of the floor, Detroit is super-hot from three, and Reggie/Drummond pick-and-roll puts on a clinic.
Cleveland in four.
(2) Toronto Raptors versus (7) Indiana Pacers
“Paul Pierce always gonna, he gotta say something. He said something last year, he’s just gotta say something. Just let him talk, I could care less what he said. He just better hope Chicago — or however it gotta work — win or something, so he won’t see what the ‘It’ is.” – Demar DeRozan
“I would put myself in the same category as D-Wade.” – Monta Ellis
Not this shit again. Not this shit again. Just what the hell do we make of Toronto this year? Record-breaking season in efficiency for Lowry and DeRozan. Biyombo becomes a young defensive force. Scola shoots threes. Team defense is better than it’s ever been. Bench has improved with more depth. Terrance Ross isn’t absolute ass. The list goes on and on.
Yet, I can’t seem to confidently pick Toronto over Indiana. Sure, Indiana came into the season with a huge change in personnel and philosophy and still hasn’t quite found a strong enough identity around their small ball. Sure, C.J. Miles and Monta Ellis are back to being inconsistent scorers they’ve been known for their whole respective careers; however, Indiana has never really been an easy “out” whenever they’ve been in the playoffs.
One statistic I think everyone should think about in this series is turnovers. Toronto takes care of the ball. Indiana gets most of their points off turnovers. Indiana plays fast. Toronto usually plays at a controlled pace.
The perimeter is intriguing. George Hill, Paul George, and C.J. Miles make up decent defensive coverage. Couple that with Mahinmi being solid defensively and Turner being an underrated rookie… Lowry and DeRozan will certainly work for their points. They certainly better hope not to turn it over too much, because Toronto’s losses in the playoffs the past two years can honestly be attributed to guard efficiency. I think both team’s bigs are a wash for the most part but also a potential x- factor. I’ve no idea what to expect out of a rookie and Biyombo.
Digging a little bit deeper in both team’s perimeter squads, statistically, Indiana’s offense isn’t its typical anemic self when George, Ellis, and Hill are all in. What this means is.. two of those guys are going to have to defend DeRozan or Lowry at a decent enough clip. If not, that forces Vogel to put George outside of his comfort zone either in minutes, fouls, or plain match-up. Not that George probably doesn’t have a problem actually guarding a point guard or shooting guard, but you don’t want to depend on him while he’s being guarded by Carrol .. who’s health status is unknown to me at this very moment but basically, Paul George is going to have a lot on his hands this series if he doesn’t get some defensive help. If he gets tired at all, it’s smooth sailing for Toronto.
The big elephant in the room that’s also not being mentioned is Indiana’s fourth quarter woes. Toronto has been no better in crunch time the past few years, but the simple fact that it’s hard for me to find even intangible advantages for Indiana spells out to me that this may possibly be Toronto’s year to finally win a first round series.
I could totally, totally see this go either way to tell you the truth. George Hill is still an amazing and solid player. Paul George continues to amaze me. Myles Turner is one of my favorite rookies; but what Brooklyn and Washington had in common against Toronto was their backcourt. Brooklyn with Joe Johnson and Washington with Wall/Beal.
Indiana would need to emulate something out of that backcourt, because Paul George can’t do it all for you. Ellis and Hill will need to play exceptionally solid at the same time for them to win this series, and I just don’t know about that. Toronto won’t get by easy if they do win but I think this is the best group they’ve put together for some time now. DeRozan has made the biggest jump in efficiency in his entire career. He gets to the line only less than LeBron and Harden now. He’s still taking too many twos and overdribbling but if he wins his match-up, they can conceivably win this series. It’s a hard button to press but I truly think it’s time… if Toronto loses, we need to consider a lolraps meme.
Toronto wins if: Lowry and DeRozan put up great numbers, the bench contributes like they should, and George simply has no defensive help as Ellis can’t hide anywhere defensively. Toronto isn’t turning the ball over and Indiana has trouble finding easy baskets.
Indiana wins if: George is going crazy at the four, and DeRozan can’t take advantage of his match-up. C.J. Miles has somehow found his stroke again from long-distance, and Mahinma makes key defensive plays time and time again.
Toronto in six
(3) Miami Heat versus (6) Charlotte Hornets
“You gotta go to Legoland to see this many blocks.” – Hassan Whiteside
Miami had possibly the most quiet yet best offseason signing with Joe Johnson. He is quietly shooting hot with this team enjoying his new role as the offguard to Dwayne Wade. Meanwhile, Charlotte enjoys their new embracing of the three-pointer as Kemba finally gets his offense clicking together.
Both teams rely on their defense in similar fashions; although they run their offense a bit different. Charlottle is slightly more up-tempo and have a much younger team while Miami is the veteran, slower paced team who shares the ball very well.
Miami isn’t a great outside shooting team. That is not a secret; they usually have very marginal wins. They shoot way too many two-pointers than they should and rank pretty low in offensive scoring numbers. It kinda plays into Charlotte’s favor considering they’re as good defensively and shoot the three above-average. They could easily win just through the math. Miami’s defensive focus should definitely be keying in on three-pointers and with Whiteside patrolling the paint, pressuring shooters into putting it on the floor shouldn’t be that big of a deal.
That is unless we talk about Al Jefferson.. and Cody Zeller. I love Whiteside. He is definitely the best X factor Miami has in this series, but he’s all alone out there. There isn’t another notable big for Miami in this series. How he handles being stretched out by Zeller and bodied by Jefferson will play a huge part in Miami potentially winning this series.
Perimeter wise, it’s hard to come up with anything concrete. I think admittedly, Dragic/Wade have more proof of excellent guard play than Kemba/Lin in the playoffs. Us San Antonio fans are definitely aware of Dragic from many years ago (he wasn’t called Goran “Godamn” Dragic for no reason!), and Lin/Kemba before this season were really guys still struggling to find their way. Has it finally come for them to breakout?
I believe whoever shoots better and defends better between Deng/Williams is important too. Williams doesn’t really have much to show for career wise. I personally think Deng is the better player but the problem with him is that he’s not as consistent of a shooter. Should be interesting in who wins the battle of production.
Conventionally, you have to go with Miami, but every year I typically do have a 6 > 3 upset I champion hard, and I’m afraid.. this is the one I’m going to go for.
I do think out of the entire first round that this is the upset that is most likely to happen (Boston beating Atlanta wouldn’t really be an “upset” …). I believe their margin for error is a little bit less. If they can make some threes, defend above-average, and Al Jefferson frustrates Whiteside, I’m going to go for it. Charlotte… finally wins their first playoff series in over 15 years.
Miami wins if: their versatility defensively proves too much for Kemba, Lin, and Batum. Nobody else on Charlotte can buy a basket. Wade gets to the line and Whiteside gets triple doubles like it’s nothing all over again.
Charlotte wins if: Jefferson makes Whiteside look foolish, Zeller stretches Whiteside out far enough to eliminate shot blocking, Charlotte is too hot from three, and Miami drowns in its anemic two point reliant offense.
Charlotte in six
(4) Atlanta Hawks versus (5) Boston Celtics
“Every young black kid these days wants to have hair like Dennis Schroeder so bad.” – Anonymous
Who was right about Atlanta’s regression? This guy!
Okay, that’s enough for bragging rights, but man, you couldn’t find a more even match-up outside of Miami and Charlotte. Two well-coached clubs who share the ball well and lack a lot of star power. Balanced, deep, don’t do many things exceptionally well but don’t do many things exceptionally bad either. The greatest new coaches his league has seen.
The biggest thing I’m looking for is guard efficiency since both teams live and die by their guard play. Both teams win and lose by how well their guards create off of turnovers or in the half-court. Isaiah wins as far as talent and off-dribble offense goes but what about his defense? Teague has recently found his rhythm but he’s had his moments as well. It’s truly hard to say which will come out on top in this series because Boston has some really great defensive guards in Bradley and Smart. You can honestly give any reason to support either.
Rebounding is another thing. It seems to be Atlanta’s Achilles heel. Even though Boston isn’t that great of a defensive rebounding team too, they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams.
Horford and Millsap certainly have more talent than Sullinger, Olynyk, and Johnson, but the mystery is if quantity is better than quality. Boston doesn’t really have that banger big man to pound them in the way Cleveland did last year. Boston would have to require the efforts of all three collectively to stay even with Atlanta’s frontcourt.
This series is really splitting hairs if you ask me. I’m going to go with Atlanta simply because between two very similar teams, I favor the more veteran, systematized team with a roster of complete players at both backcourt and frontcourt. Teague historically steps it up in the playoffs and Isaiah may have a tough time dealing with a two guard attack of Teague and Schroeder so it’s going to be harder to hide him defensively. I will not be surprised if Atlanta chokes up another one, though.
Either team wins if: their respective point guards shoot and defend.
Atlanta in seven.
Western Conference
(1) Golden State Warriors versus (8) Houston Rockets
Sigh. This again.
I won’t spend too much time on this nonsense. The worst part is that teams are practically unchanged too. Even Josh Smith came back. I don’t really know what different Houston can do to even give themselves a semblance of life in this series… Houston has regressed and Golden State has surprisingly become better than they were last year around this time.
It’s almost fate that these two teams face each other again. Morey Ball is a name that originally started with the Houston Rocket’s philosophy on offense which pretty much means to avoid the long dread 2-pointer. Instead, you focus on three-pointers, free throws, or shots at the rim. All while defending the other team from making these shots as well.
The only problem is that Golden State has become the embodiment of that philosophy while Houston is more like the infinitely inferior version of it.
And that’s pretty much this series in a nutshell. Golden State just does everything better. Shoot better, defend better, share the ball better; the only thing Houston does better than Golden State in? Forcing turnovers, but that probably has more to do with pace than anything else. They also have the added problem of having a worse turnover to assist ratio which means, it’s all for naught anyway.
Well, maybe Golden State is tired from all the 73-9 crazy. Ugh, am I actually attempting to come up with reasons for Houston to stand a chance for the sake of word count now? I’ve sunk that low, guys.
Okay, at the very least, Houston has to do something drastic. Like, never seen before. They won’t beat them with how they traditionally play since last year was enough evidence for that. They either have to do some crazy shit like… play Howard/Capela/Jones at frontcourt or go super small and have Ariza at center. It’s either helterskelter or pound the booty in the paint.
Let me get on with my life please.
Golden State wins if: They breathe.
Houston wins if: I get a date tomorrow.
Golden State in four.
(2) San Antonio Spurs versus (7) Memphis Grizzlies
“The time when there is no one there to feel sorry for you or to cheer for you is when a player is made.” – Tim Duncan
“He is the only star still rocking cornrows, an outdated tribute to Carmelo Anthony, and he shrugs when friends claim he’d expand his endorsement portfolio if he shaved the braids. He is happy to sponsor Wingstop, which sends him coupons for free wings, so he can feed his Mango Habanero addiction. This winter, after his $94 million contract kicked in, he panicked when he lost his coupons. Wingstop generously replenished his supply.”- Sports Illustrated on Kawhi Leonard
Oh, right… the match-up…
I want you to take a look at one thing.. Memphis’ projected starting line-up.
Jordan Farmar, Tony Allen/Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, Zach Randolph, Chris Andersen.
Dear lord help this team.
This team is going to have the most anemic offense in the playoffs. I guarantee it. This San Antonio team is possibly the best defensive team statistically in the last 15-20 years. The best San Antonio team we’ve possibly ever seen. Kawhi Leonard is entering a whole new level of stardom. Does anyone really want to entertain Memphis making this entertaining? Didn’t think so.
It’ll do San Antonio some good to finish a first round series relatively quickly. Oklahoma City won’t be easy next round. Take advantage of the rest.
San Antonio wins if: Memphis still has Jordan Farmar, Matt Barnes, Chris Andersen, and Vince Carter playing significant minutes.
Memphis wins if: They replace the aforementioned players somehow with Michael Jordan in his prime. Each.
San Antonio in five.
(3) Oklahoma City Thunder versus (6) Dallas Mavericks
“Y’all niggas trippin’” – Westbrook to reporters
Rick Carlisle is a genius. Let merepeat that: Rick Carlisle is a genius. Year in, year out, he somehow manages to take a bunch of scrubs and term them into serviceable players.
With Billy Donovan making his first trip to professional level playoff competition, this might actually be a heavily contested series. After all, Carlisle outsmarts the likes of Gregg Popovich. A rookie coach would be no problem at all.
First major question for the series: how effective can Dallas be with a three-guard line-up? Let’s face it, straight-up, position by position, Oklahoma City murders Dallas in talent and athleticism. Pachulia is honorable but done. Dirk is as immobile as Bernie Sanders on his tax plan. If they play them traditionally, they lose. No question.
If they go super small, they may still lose; but at least it’s something untested. It’s something Rick Carlisle can play his mind tricks to his advantage. Imagine a Berea/Felton/Williams/Matthews/Dirk. You won’t guard shit but if you shoot lights out, you might trick Donovan into doing something he knows damn well he shouldn’t be doing. Berea is having a career year too, but can he really play major minutes against the likes of Russel Westbrook? Well, I guess it wouldn’t be that bad since Oklahoma City usually has some of the lamest offguard players in history. Perhaps Dallas can hang their hat on that.
Speaking of not being able to guard shit, with Parsons injured, Matthews is the only decent defensive player they have on the perimeter, and Oklahoma City has two of the top five guys in the league on perimeter. Will they survive either way? He can only guard one guy, and they’re even undersized at the regular point guard match-up. It’s just not looking pretty.
Can Deron Williams come alive? He had a stretch last year against Atlanta that looked like it was going to happen, but it only lasted one or two games. I expect the same to happen here; well, actually, maybe not at all since Westbrook is leagues ahead of Teague. Unless he’s playing the offguard spot, I don’t expect much from Williams, but it adds more mystery to this already talent-deficient Dallas team.
So, even if we ignore the backcourt, Dallas still feels lacking in the frontcourt. I know they have Dirk, but Ibaka has steadily become better and better at guarding him. I don’t know if it’s a matter of Dirk simply getting older, but he’s not going to come through like he used to years ago.
Oklahoma City has too much shot-blocking, scoring, and athleticism in that frontcourt. Dallas just has too big of a hole. Now, I can imagine Carlisle to ingeniously go small with some crazy shenanigans involving Dirk or David Lee. Maybe he’ll even make use of Mejri; but Pachulia should in no way be a part of the plan. He’s slow, can’t score, can’t pass, can’t rebound, and can’t block shots. I don’t care how well he’s done in the regular season but he’s clearly played way beyond his limits and simply can’t be a part of a playoff team’s starting roster.
As much of a head coach advantage Carlisle has over Donovan, nothing overcomes the gap of talent and athleticism Dallas lacks in this match-up.
Oklahoma City wins if: Westbrook and Durant are just plain better. Their frontcourt is overwhelming defensively. Dallas’ guards are still jokes. Pachulia exists.
Dallas wins if: Berea pulls a 2011. Carlisle wins the coaching battle so bad that everything I’ve said is pointless.
Oklahoma City Thunder in six.
(4) Los Angeles Clippers versus (5) Portland Trailblazers
You only really need to look at one match-up for this whole thing.
We’ve seen the Portland in the playoffs the past few years. Lillard has been losing that point guard match-up for some time now; I remember when they faced San Antonio one year and completely burned Lillard with just Tony Parker.
Looking his statistical match-up with Chris Paul in every single meeting he’s ever had, he’s done nothing but struggled. Rightfully so, as Chris Paul is actually one of the best defending point guards in the game, and pick-and-roll is essentially his game… which also happens to be Lillard’s weakness.
Portland’s biggest weakness is their perimeter defense which doesn’t help matters. Los Angeles has one of the best offensive efficiency through their guard play. I understand Portland did well to get here after being the biggest offseason loser but let’s not kid ourselves: the western conference simply became thin. Last year, Portland had the sixth best record with 44 wins (that fourth seed wasn’t based on record). This year.. they’re at the fifth best record with 51 wins. Dallas is starting Pachulia. Memphis lost their star center. Houston is Houston. New Orleans did the injury dance. Portland is not a serious team, folks.
I’m not even all too concerned with Blake Griffin right now. If he plays like normal, of course Los Angeles cruises. If he doesn’t, you still have Chris Paul’s amazing point guard efficiency to contend with. I just don’t see a path to victory with this Portland team if your point guard is outclassed in every single way imaginable. It will serve Los Angeles well to finally have an easy first round series and rest for the next opponent, because their second round luck has never been great. Perhaps from being too mentally and physically drained from all of their first-round opponents. Golden State, San Antonio, and Memphis are not teams you want to face in the first round ever (except this year, strangely enough).
Los Angeles wins if: Chris Paul does what Chris Paul does to point guards. They out-depth Portland from a scoring standpoint.
Portland wins if: Their backcourt manages to defend and attack at the same time. They get contributions from someone other than Lillard and McCollum.
Los Angeles in five.
Okay, just kidding. We already know what the outcome will be. The question I will be asking myself during this series is.. what would it potentially take for Cleveland to lose?Well, looking at their stats during losses relative to wins, Cleveland loses when they shoot worse from the field, rebound worse, and their isoball doesn’t phase out. What can Detroit do to play into these weaknesses?
Well, rebounding is probably self-explanatory as Detroit is one of the top offensive rebounding teams in the league; but it begs the question to say they could do this four out of seven games with Andre Drummond on his own. This is his first playoff series, and he’s going up against big men who are not slouches in rebounding. Love, Thompson, and Mozgov are all excellent big men in their own right when it comes to rebounding the ball. If Drummond has great offensive games coupled with okay free throw shooting, he can give Detroit a decent shot at winning a game.
Perimeter wise, it’s… not really close. Reggie Jackson is like a hot pocket. Either he’s super hot or super cold. Most of his points come from pick-and-rolling with Drummond (you can expect Gundy to pick the hell out of Irving/Love). However, I don’t think Drummond/Jackson pick-and-roll is lethal enough to propel them to a series win no matter how bad defensively Love and Irving are.
Three-point shooting will also be very important in this series. Cleveland is the superior three-point shooting team by far where and has it as their calling hard where as Detroit.. not so much. Detroit does a decent job defending the three, but they don’t excel at shooting it even when they’re open. Outside of Jodie Meeks, I don’t think they have any serious threat from beyond the arc. If they aren’t defending Cleveland at a good enough rate, that only makes their margin for error on shooting with Cleveland that much smaller. With Frye into the mix, if Drummond is caught trying to guard either Love or Frye out in the perimeter, I can expect lulzy results. It completely nullifies his shotblocking and a small Cleveland team that may lose in rebounding may come on top offensively enough.
Kyrie versus Reggie will be interesting, but my money’s on Kyrie since he’s just naturally the more talented point guard. Kyrie can get his whenever he wants while also being surrounded by superior shooters whereas Reggie depends on a poor free throw shooting big and mediocre 3-point shooters around him. Reggie’s going to see some difficult coverage from time to time so it’ll be infinitely easier for Kyrie to get in rhythm for these reasons alone.
This series is really going to come down to who can just shoot better from the field; because if Cleveland shoots too good, then there won’t be offensive rebounds to claim. No offensive rebounds means Detroit is shit out of luck if they aren’t making long-distance shots (you can tell I’ll be emphasizing the three-point shot a lot more this year). They aren’t the type of team to force turnovers either. They play above-average defense by just being in the right place, contesting shots, and getting the rebound; but that isn’t exactly a good recipe for controlling the tempo against iso-heavy teams. So how will Detroit get their points here exactly?
LeBron first-round series are typically short anyway, and I don’t expect that to change much this year. Home court, intangibles, experience, talent, depth, shooting, defense, and a fresh LeBron James. The only match-up that would make them hustle a bit would be Drummond and that guy just doesn’t have what it takes… yet. There are just too many big men on the other side for him to contend with, bangers and shooters alike.
Cleveland wins if: They make shots. …. That’s pretty much it.
Detroit wins if: Drummond is amazing on both ends of the floor, Detroit is super-hot from three, and Reggie/Drummond pick-and-roll puts on a clinic.
Cleveland in four.
(2) Toronto Raptors versus (7) Indiana Pacers
“Paul Pierce always gonna, he gotta say something. He said something last year, he’s just gotta say something. Just let him talk, I could care less what he said. He just better hope Chicago — or however it gotta work — win or something, so he won’t see what the ‘It’ is.” – Demar DeRozan
“I would put myself in the same category as D-Wade.” – Monta Ellis
Not this shit again. Not this shit again. Just what the hell do we make of Toronto this year? Record-breaking season in efficiency for Lowry and DeRozan. Biyombo becomes a young defensive force. Scola shoots threes. Team defense is better than it’s ever been. Bench has improved with more depth. Terrance Ross isn’t absolute ass. The list goes on and on.
Yet, I can’t seem to confidently pick Toronto over Indiana. Sure, Indiana came into the season with a huge change in personnel and philosophy and still hasn’t quite found a strong enough identity around their small ball. Sure, C.J. Miles and Monta Ellis are back to being inconsistent scorers they’ve been known for their whole respective careers; however, Indiana has never really been an easy “out” whenever they’ve been in the playoffs.
One statistic I think everyone should think about in this series is turnovers. Toronto takes care of the ball. Indiana gets most of their points off turnovers. Indiana plays fast. Toronto usually plays at a controlled pace.
The perimeter is intriguing. George Hill, Paul George, and C.J. Miles make up decent defensive coverage. Couple that with Mahinmi being solid defensively and Turner being an underrated rookie… Lowry and DeRozan will certainly work for their points. They certainly better hope not to turn it over too much, because Toronto’s losses in the playoffs the past two years can honestly be attributed to guard efficiency. I think both team’s bigs are a wash for the most part but also a potential x- factor. I’ve no idea what to expect out of a rookie and Biyombo.
Digging a little bit deeper in both team’s perimeter squads, statistically, Indiana’s offense isn’t its typical anemic self when George, Ellis, and Hill are all in. What this means is.. two of those guys are going to have to defend DeRozan or Lowry at a decent enough clip. If not, that forces Vogel to put George outside of his comfort zone either in minutes, fouls, or plain match-up. Not that George probably doesn’t have a problem actually guarding a point guard or shooting guard, but you don’t want to depend on him while he’s being guarded by Carrol .. who’s health status is unknown to me at this very moment but basically, Paul George is going to have a lot on his hands this series if he doesn’t get some defensive help. If he gets tired at all, it’s smooth sailing for Toronto.
The big elephant in the room that’s also not being mentioned is Indiana’s fourth quarter woes. Toronto has been no better in crunch time the past few years, but the simple fact that it’s hard for me to find even intangible advantages for Indiana spells out to me that this may possibly be Toronto’s year to finally win a first round series.
I could totally, totally see this go either way to tell you the truth. George Hill is still an amazing and solid player. Paul George continues to amaze me. Myles Turner is one of my favorite rookies; but what Brooklyn and Washington had in common against Toronto was their backcourt. Brooklyn with Joe Johnson and Washington with Wall/Beal.
Indiana would need to emulate something out of that backcourt, because Paul George can’t do it all for you. Ellis and Hill will need to play exceptionally solid at the same time for them to win this series, and I just don’t know about that. Toronto won’t get by easy if they do win but I think this is the best group they’ve put together for some time now. DeRozan has made the biggest jump in efficiency in his entire career. He gets to the line only less than LeBron and Harden now. He’s still taking too many twos and overdribbling but if he wins his match-up, they can conceivably win this series. It’s a hard button to press but I truly think it’s time… if Toronto loses, we need to consider a lolraps meme.
Toronto wins if: Lowry and DeRozan put up great numbers, the bench contributes like they should, and George simply has no defensive help as Ellis can’t hide anywhere defensively. Toronto isn’t turning the ball over and Indiana has trouble finding easy baskets.
Indiana wins if: George is going crazy at the four, and DeRozan can’t take advantage of his match-up. C.J. Miles has somehow found his stroke again from long-distance, and Mahinma makes key defensive plays time and time again.
Toronto in six
(3) Miami Heat versus (6) Charlotte Hornets
“You gotta go to Legoland to see this many blocks.” – Hassan Whiteside
Miami had possibly the most quiet yet best offseason signing with Joe Johnson. He is quietly shooting hot with this team enjoying his new role as the offguard to Dwayne Wade. Meanwhile, Charlotte enjoys their new embracing of the three-pointer as Kemba finally gets his offense clicking together.
Both teams rely on their defense in similar fashions; although they run their offense a bit different. Charlottle is slightly more up-tempo and have a much younger team while Miami is the veteran, slower paced team who shares the ball very well.
Miami isn’t a great outside shooting team. That is not a secret; they usually have very marginal wins. They shoot way too many two-pointers than they should and rank pretty low in offensive scoring numbers. It kinda plays into Charlotte’s favor considering they’re as good defensively and shoot the three above-average. They could easily win just through the math. Miami’s defensive focus should definitely be keying in on three-pointers and with Whiteside patrolling the paint, pressuring shooters into putting it on the floor shouldn’t be that big of a deal.
That is unless we talk about Al Jefferson.. and Cody Zeller. I love Whiteside. He is definitely the best X factor Miami has in this series, but he’s all alone out there. There isn’t another notable big for Miami in this series. How he handles being stretched out by Zeller and bodied by Jefferson will play a huge part in Miami potentially winning this series.
Perimeter wise, it’s hard to come up with anything concrete. I think admittedly, Dragic/Wade have more proof of excellent guard play than Kemba/Lin in the playoffs. Us San Antonio fans are definitely aware of Dragic from many years ago (he wasn’t called Goran “Godamn” Dragic for no reason!), and Lin/Kemba before this season were really guys still struggling to find their way. Has it finally come for them to breakout?
I believe whoever shoots better and defends better between Deng/Williams is important too. Williams doesn’t really have much to show for career wise. I personally think Deng is the better player but the problem with him is that he’s not as consistent of a shooter. Should be interesting in who wins the battle of production.
Conventionally, you have to go with Miami, but every year I typically do have a 6 > 3 upset I champion hard, and I’m afraid.. this is the one I’m going to go for.
I do think out of the entire first round that this is the upset that is most likely to happen (Boston beating Atlanta wouldn’t really be an “upset” …). I believe their margin for error is a little bit less. If they can make some threes, defend above-average, and Al Jefferson frustrates Whiteside, I’m going to go for it. Charlotte… finally wins their first playoff series in over 15 years.
Miami wins if: their versatility defensively proves too much for Kemba, Lin, and Batum. Nobody else on Charlotte can buy a basket. Wade gets to the line and Whiteside gets triple doubles like it’s nothing all over again.
Charlotte wins if: Jefferson makes Whiteside look foolish, Zeller stretches Whiteside out far enough to eliminate shot blocking, Charlotte is too hot from three, and Miami drowns in its anemic two point reliant offense.
Charlotte in six
(4) Atlanta Hawks versus (5) Boston Celtics
“Every young black kid these days wants to have hair like Dennis Schroeder so bad.” – Anonymous
Who was right about Atlanta’s regression? This guy!
Okay, that’s enough for bragging rights, but man, you couldn’t find a more even match-up outside of Miami and Charlotte. Two well-coached clubs who share the ball well and lack a lot of star power. Balanced, deep, don’t do many things exceptionally well but don’t do many things exceptionally bad either. The greatest new coaches his league has seen.
The biggest thing I’m looking for is guard efficiency since both teams live and die by their guard play. Both teams win and lose by how well their guards create off of turnovers or in the half-court. Isaiah wins as far as talent and off-dribble offense goes but what about his defense? Teague has recently found his rhythm but he’s had his moments as well. It’s truly hard to say which will come out on top in this series because Boston has some really great defensive guards in Bradley and Smart. You can honestly give any reason to support either.
Rebounding is another thing. It seems to be Atlanta’s Achilles heel. Even though Boston isn’t that great of a defensive rebounding team too, they are one of the best offensive rebounding teams.
Horford and Millsap certainly have more talent than Sullinger, Olynyk, and Johnson, but the mystery is if quantity is better than quality. Boston doesn’t really have that banger big man to pound them in the way Cleveland did last year. Boston would have to require the efforts of all three collectively to stay even with Atlanta’s frontcourt.
This series is really splitting hairs if you ask me. I’m going to go with Atlanta simply because between two very similar teams, I favor the more veteran, systematized team with a roster of complete players at both backcourt and frontcourt. Teague historically steps it up in the playoffs and Isaiah may have a tough time dealing with a two guard attack of Teague and Schroeder so it’s going to be harder to hide him defensively. I will not be surprised if Atlanta chokes up another one, though.
Either team wins if: their respective point guards shoot and defend.
Atlanta in seven.
Western Conference
(1) Golden State Warriors versus (8) Houston Rockets
Sigh. This again.
I won’t spend too much time on this nonsense. The worst part is that teams are practically unchanged too. Even Josh Smith came back. I don’t really know what different Houston can do to even give themselves a semblance of life in this series… Houston has regressed and Golden State has surprisingly become better than they were last year around this time.
It’s almost fate that these two teams face each other again. Morey Ball is a name that originally started with the Houston Rocket’s philosophy on offense which pretty much means to avoid the long dread 2-pointer. Instead, you focus on three-pointers, free throws, or shots at the rim. All while defending the other team from making these shots as well.
The only problem is that Golden State has become the embodiment of that philosophy while Houston is more like the infinitely inferior version of it.
And that’s pretty much this series in a nutshell. Golden State just does everything better. Shoot better, defend better, share the ball better; the only thing Houston does better than Golden State in? Forcing turnovers, but that probably has more to do with pace than anything else. They also have the added problem of having a worse turnover to assist ratio which means, it’s all for naught anyway.
Well, maybe Golden State is tired from all the 73-9 crazy. Ugh, am I actually attempting to come up with reasons for Houston to stand a chance for the sake of word count now? I’ve sunk that low, guys.
Okay, at the very least, Houston has to do something drastic. Like, never seen before. They won’t beat them with how they traditionally play since last year was enough evidence for that. They either have to do some crazy shit like… play Howard/Capela/Jones at frontcourt or go super small and have Ariza at center. It’s either helterskelter or pound the booty in the paint.
Let me get on with my life please.
Golden State wins if: They breathe.
Houston wins if: I get a date tomorrow.
Golden State in four.
(2) San Antonio Spurs versus (7) Memphis Grizzlies
“The time when there is no one there to feel sorry for you or to cheer for you is when a player is made.” – Tim Duncan
“He is the only star still rocking cornrows, an outdated tribute to Carmelo Anthony, and he shrugs when friends claim he’d expand his endorsement portfolio if he shaved the braids. He is happy to sponsor Wingstop, which sends him coupons for free wings, so he can feed his Mango Habanero addiction. This winter, after his $94 million contract kicked in, he panicked when he lost his coupons. Wingstop generously replenished his supply.”- Sports Illustrated on Kawhi Leonard
Oh, right… the match-up…
I want you to take a look at one thing.. Memphis’ projected starting line-up.
Jordan Farmar, Tony Allen/Vince Carter, Matt Barnes, Zach Randolph, Chris Andersen.
Dear lord help this team.
This team is going to have the most anemic offense in the playoffs. I guarantee it. This San Antonio team is possibly the best defensive team statistically in the last 15-20 years. The best San Antonio team we’ve possibly ever seen. Kawhi Leonard is entering a whole new level of stardom. Does anyone really want to entertain Memphis making this entertaining? Didn’t think so.
It’ll do San Antonio some good to finish a first round series relatively quickly. Oklahoma City won’t be easy next round. Take advantage of the rest.
San Antonio wins if: Memphis still has Jordan Farmar, Matt Barnes, Chris Andersen, and Vince Carter playing significant minutes.
Memphis wins if: They replace the aforementioned players somehow with Michael Jordan in his prime. Each.
San Antonio in five.
(3) Oklahoma City Thunder versus (6) Dallas Mavericks
“Y’all niggas trippin’” – Westbrook to reporters
Rick Carlisle is a genius. Let merepeat that: Rick Carlisle is a genius. Year in, year out, he somehow manages to take a bunch of scrubs and term them into serviceable players.
With Billy Donovan making his first trip to professional level playoff competition, this might actually be a heavily contested series. After all, Carlisle outsmarts the likes of Gregg Popovich. A rookie coach would be no problem at all.
First major question for the series: how effective can Dallas be with a three-guard line-up? Let’s face it, straight-up, position by position, Oklahoma City murders Dallas in talent and athleticism. Pachulia is honorable but done. Dirk is as immobile as Bernie Sanders on his tax plan. If they play them traditionally, they lose. No question.
If they go super small, they may still lose; but at least it’s something untested. It’s something Rick Carlisle can play his mind tricks to his advantage. Imagine a Berea/Felton/Williams/Matthews/Dirk. You won’t guard shit but if you shoot lights out, you might trick Donovan into doing something he knows damn well he shouldn’t be doing. Berea is having a career year too, but can he really play major minutes against the likes of Russel Westbrook? Well, I guess it wouldn’t be that bad since Oklahoma City usually has some of the lamest offguard players in history. Perhaps Dallas can hang their hat on that.
Speaking of not being able to guard shit, with Parsons injured, Matthews is the only decent defensive player they have on the perimeter, and Oklahoma City has two of the top five guys in the league on perimeter. Will they survive either way? He can only guard one guy, and they’re even undersized at the regular point guard match-up. It’s just not looking pretty.
Can Deron Williams come alive? He had a stretch last year against Atlanta that looked like it was going to happen, but it only lasted one or two games. I expect the same to happen here; well, actually, maybe not at all since Westbrook is leagues ahead of Teague. Unless he’s playing the offguard spot, I don’t expect much from Williams, but it adds more mystery to this already talent-deficient Dallas team.
So, even if we ignore the backcourt, Dallas still feels lacking in the frontcourt. I know they have Dirk, but Ibaka has steadily become better and better at guarding him. I don’t know if it’s a matter of Dirk simply getting older, but he’s not going to come through like he used to years ago.
Oklahoma City has too much shot-blocking, scoring, and athleticism in that frontcourt. Dallas just has too big of a hole. Now, I can imagine Carlisle to ingeniously go small with some crazy shenanigans involving Dirk or David Lee. Maybe he’ll even make use of Mejri; but Pachulia should in no way be a part of the plan. He’s slow, can’t score, can’t pass, can’t rebound, and can’t block shots. I don’t care how well he’s done in the regular season but he’s clearly played way beyond his limits and simply can’t be a part of a playoff team’s starting roster.
As much of a head coach advantage Carlisle has over Donovan, nothing overcomes the gap of talent and athleticism Dallas lacks in this match-up.
Oklahoma City wins if: Westbrook and Durant are just plain better. Their frontcourt is overwhelming defensively. Dallas’ guards are still jokes. Pachulia exists.
Dallas wins if: Berea pulls a 2011. Carlisle wins the coaching battle so bad that everything I’ve said is pointless.
Oklahoma City Thunder in six.
(4) Los Angeles Clippers versus (5) Portland Trailblazers
You only really need to look at one match-up for this whole thing.
We’ve seen the Portland in the playoffs the past few years. Lillard has been losing that point guard match-up for some time now; I remember when they faced San Antonio one year and completely burned Lillard with just Tony Parker.
Looking his statistical match-up with Chris Paul in every single meeting he’s ever had, he’s done nothing but struggled. Rightfully so, as Chris Paul is actually one of the best defending point guards in the game, and pick-and-roll is essentially his game… which also happens to be Lillard’s weakness.
Portland’s biggest weakness is their perimeter defense which doesn’t help matters. Los Angeles has one of the best offensive efficiency through their guard play. I understand Portland did well to get here after being the biggest offseason loser but let’s not kid ourselves: the western conference simply became thin. Last year, Portland had the sixth best record with 44 wins (that fourth seed wasn’t based on record). This year.. they’re at the fifth best record with 51 wins. Dallas is starting Pachulia. Memphis lost their star center. Houston is Houston. New Orleans did the injury dance. Portland is not a serious team, folks.
I’m not even all too concerned with Blake Griffin right now. If he plays like normal, of course Los Angeles cruises. If he doesn’t, you still have Chris Paul’s amazing point guard efficiency to contend with. I just don’t see a path to victory with this Portland team if your point guard is outclassed in every single way imaginable. It will serve Los Angeles well to finally have an easy first round series and rest for the next opponent, because their second round luck has never been great. Perhaps from being too mentally and physically drained from all of their first-round opponents. Golden State, San Antonio, and Memphis are not teams you want to face in the first round ever (except this year, strangely enough).
Los Angeles wins if: Chris Paul does what Chris Paul does to point guards. They out-depth Portland from a scoring standpoint.
Portland wins if: Their backcourt manages to defend and attack at the same time. They get contributions from someone other than Lillard and McCollum.
Los Angeles in five.
ah shit i fucked up. oh well i gotta run
2nd Unit playing really well for the Raptors while DeRozan/Lowry are struggling. Wondering if the 2nd Unit can keep it up or will the backcourt turn it up in the 2nd half. Otherwise, Pacers are likely to steal this game imo.
edit : what did i say? PG finally turned it up and the backcourt / 2nd unit of the raptors hasn't shown up
edit 2: lowry makes a dumb screen and jonas fouls out..why did I choose raptors in 6?
edit : what did i say? PG finally turned it up and the backcourt / 2nd unit of the raptors hasn't shown up
edit 2: lowry makes a dumb screen and jonas fouls out..why did I choose raptors in 6?
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This has got to be the biggest meltdown in the playoffs I have ever seen.
edit; not for long..lol
edit; not for long..lol
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you must haven't watched the Raptors the last two years
Wait, Houston is in the playoffs?
I told ya: we cannot forget Paul George...
That's true, but I haven't seen something like the Rockets done where the whole bench and Patrick Bev get so mad and play just bad basketball
ohhh you weren't talking about the raptors! you were talking about that random team GS played idk who they were
Dwight Howard is Adriano's Basketball. Has ability, size, strength, technique, have all the fucking package. But it's a lazy bastard who didn't dedicate in the basketball court even to save his life.
Never underestimate Boston
http://www.nba.com/2016/news/04/17/...or-series-with-hamstring-injury.ap/index.html
Oof.
The Lakers fan in me prevents me from feeling too badly, though.
Oof.
The Lakers fan in me prevents me from feeling too badly, though.
Kawhi Leonard wins Defensive Player of the Year again.
i was at the game and the whole stadium just deflated when indy got it going in the 3rd. i know you were semi-kidding/exaggerating but it was truly one of the more depressing sports atmospheres i've experienced :(
at some point masai is gonna have to look at casey for why toronto can't adjust to playoff basketball. why are derozan/lowry only going 1v1 or simple pnr's vs (arguably) the best perimeter defense in the league? why is scola starting? why is JV playing 25 minutes a game? why is ross in the rotation!?!?!?!?!?!?!
the raps are an amazing team and the players obviously love casey, but i think most raps fan have come around to conclude that he's just not a good enough X's and O's coach to win in the postseason. i do hope to be proven wrong in game 2 though...............
Casey ain't your only problem.
Daaaaamn that was ridiculous lol. The OKC crowd is so mad
Now I fucking remember. OKC is a fucking joke in the 4th
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