Not sure if this chance is as big as two years ago when they won it all, but I suppose Dallas, of all the teams they faced, took them all the way.
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Official NBA 15-16' Season Thread
- Thread starter trikx_insane
- Start date
- Status
(2) San Antonio Spurs versus (3) Oklahoma City Thunder
"Yeah, he said a lot, but now he can go home and do whatever he needs to do to get ready for next year to sit down and watch 82 more games like he did this year.” – Russell Westbrook
Spurs versus Thunder III: Westbrook Temper Tantrum Madness
Let me take you back to 2012. San Antonio had a clean playoff run. Two 4-0 sweeps of pretty decent teams. Then beat Oklahoma City 2-0… only to lose four more games as soon as Brooks put Sefolosha on Tony Parker. Ibaka hit his shots and San Antonio was helpless with their unprecedented turnover numbers.
Two years later, they face again. Ibaka gets hurt in the middle of the series, but Kawhi came up with clutch steals and Ginobili hit clutch shots along with Duncan. San Antonio moves on to win against a team that seemed to have their number.
Now, we enter a third playoff series between these two teams. Both have gone through many changes over the years.
I want to start off by saying this: This San Antonio team that we are seeing present day is statistically the best San Antonio team we’ve possibly ever seen in defensive efficiency as well as point differential. If it weren’t for Golden State, we’d be talking about San Antonio breaking records and taking names. They are clearly the better team statistically. Oklahoma City is the better team individually as far as talent goes. So, once again, we have another classic case of team versus individual talent.
The conventional case for San Antonio is their team defensive numbers, fourth quarter numbers, bench play, and depth. They do say basketball is more of a game of match-ups, however.
Throughout their four regular season games, Oklahoma City has killed them on the glass. Most notably Kanter and Adams. That’s kind what you want to look for in this series.. that third and fourth contributor from Oklahoma City outside of their two star studs. Kanter would make mincemeat of guys like West and Diaw; Popovich should definitely play Duncan/Aldridge less together and more separately so Kanter/Adams/Ibaka aren’t getting their team too many second chance points. Even outside of rebounding, they still score very well off of Durant and Westbrook’s playmaking. Some on San Antonio’s frontcourt has to come up defensively and offensively big for them to win this series. If not, Oklahoma City will pound them to the ground. Frontcourt strategy should be interesting, because Oklahoma City has played more traditional this year... which fits into San Antonio’s strengths. Which frontcourt will have the advantage?
As for the perimeter, Oklahoma City still hasn’t found that one two-guard to replace James Harden. They’ve gone through so many players that I believe I forgot their long list of names.. but recent ones I’ve seen thus far have be Foye, Waiters, and Roberson. Another key factor in this series is if San Antonio will be able to successfully hide Tony Parker defensively. Popovich will start him off on Westbrook (foolishly as always), but as the game progresses, he’s definitely going to switch Green on Westbrook. As of late, Waiters has actually…. Played efficiently? Gasp.
I remember down the stretch in the regular season opener, they went to him and he abused Tony Parker defensively. Can we expect to see this same strategy? Well, it would certainly open the floor up a lot more and Tony Parker wouldn’t just be coasting on one end of the floor. If you force San Antonio to actually have to guard Westbrook, Durant, and one more other guy on the perimeter, they don’t stand a chance.
So, here’s what we know: San Antonio is the historic team. Oklahoma City has the historic players. San Antonio’s only team statistic that doesn’t give us an easy sign of a win is their rebounding. Popovich will have to think of the best frontcourt combination to solve that issue, but I definitely think he can do it. The best defensive team in more than a decade can’t not be decent in rebounding in some form.
I simply have to favor San Antonio through the strong conventional statistics which support them. Oklahoma City can definitely win this series, though. They have a higher ceiling. It’s just a matter of how often they can get access to it in 48 minutes. My bet is the same as it was in 2012 and 2014: team intangibles over star power.
San Antonio in six.
Spurs versus Thunder III: Westbrook Temper Tantrum Madness
Let me take you back to 2012. San Antonio had a clean playoff run. Two 4-0 sweeps of pretty decent teams. Then beat Oklahoma City 2-0… only to lose four more games as soon as Brooks put Sefolosha on Tony Parker. Ibaka hit his shots and San Antonio was helpless with their unprecedented turnover numbers.
Two years later, they face again. Ibaka gets hurt in the middle of the series, but Kawhi came up with clutch steals and Ginobili hit clutch shots along with Duncan. San Antonio moves on to win against a team that seemed to have their number.
Now, we enter a third playoff series between these two teams. Both have gone through many changes over the years.
I want to start off by saying this: This San Antonio team that we are seeing present day is statistically the best San Antonio team we’ve possibly ever seen in defensive efficiency as well as point differential. If it weren’t for Golden State, we’d be talking about San Antonio breaking records and taking names. They are clearly the better team statistically. Oklahoma City is the better team individually as far as talent goes. So, once again, we have another classic case of team versus individual talent.
The conventional case for San Antonio is their team defensive numbers, fourth quarter numbers, bench play, and depth. They do say basketball is more of a game of match-ups, however.
Throughout their four regular season games, Oklahoma City has killed them on the glass. Most notably Kanter and Adams. That’s kind what you want to look for in this series.. that third and fourth contributor from Oklahoma City outside of their two star studs. Kanter would make mincemeat of guys like West and Diaw; Popovich should definitely play Duncan/Aldridge less together and more separately so Kanter/Adams/Ibaka aren’t getting their team too many second chance points. Even outside of rebounding, they still score very well off of Durant and Westbrook’s playmaking. Some on San Antonio’s frontcourt has to come up defensively and offensively big for them to win this series. If not, Oklahoma City will pound them to the ground. Frontcourt strategy should be interesting, because Oklahoma City has played more traditional this year... which fits into San Antonio’s strengths. Which frontcourt will have the advantage?
As for the perimeter, Oklahoma City still hasn’t found that one two-guard to replace James Harden. They’ve gone through so many players that I believe I forgot their long list of names.. but recent ones I’ve seen thus far have be Foye, Waiters, and Roberson. Another key factor in this series is if San Antonio will be able to successfully hide Tony Parker defensively. Popovich will start him off on Westbrook (foolishly as always), but as the game progresses, he’s definitely going to switch Green on Westbrook. As of late, Waiters has actually…. Played efficiently? Gasp.
I remember down the stretch in the regular season opener, they went to him and he abused Tony Parker defensively. Can we expect to see this same strategy? Well, it would certainly open the floor up a lot more and Tony Parker wouldn’t just be coasting on one end of the floor. If you force San Antonio to actually have to guard Westbrook, Durant, and one more other guy on the perimeter, they don’t stand a chance.
So, here’s what we know: San Antonio is the historic team. Oklahoma City has the historic players. San Antonio’s only team statistic that doesn’t give us an easy sign of a win is their rebounding. Popovich will have to think of the best frontcourt combination to solve that issue, but I definitely think he can do it. The best defensive team in more than a decade can’t not be decent in rebounding in some form.
I simply have to favor San Antonio through the strong conventional statistics which support them. Oklahoma City can definitely win this series, though. They have a higher ceiling. It’s just a matter of how often they can get access to it in 48 minutes. My bet is the same as it was in 2012 and 2014: team intangibles over star power.
San Antonio in six.
SAS in 6, GSW in 6, Cavs in 7
lulz nah
nice, remember i said sas in 6? na lmao, sas in 4 or 5, kd goin' to the east. can't see him staying in the West with a dominant Spurs/GSW team. This OKC team, has no offensive presence / scoring besides durant/russ in starting lineup and knater off bench
don't like the cavs lol so i might be bias, i just wanna see a good series tbh and not a repeat of last yr of hawks/cavs
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unfortunately that's what i'm leaning towards.
OKC should bounce back after this non-existent performance but SA will still win the series. Get used to seeing more of those amazing stat lines from Westbrook like the one he just put up, because when things aren't going right that's what he gives you.
Y'all didn't give Indiana any credit before this series. They kept it competitive and everyone was saying like "Toronto in 4" or "Toronto in 5". But when Indiana wins in 7 guess who'll say that he totally called it? :]
meDel Rio said:
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still called this, I knew Clippers were a better team than Portland, but this year, I had a feeling something bad was bound to happen to this Clippers team, they weren't a 100% healthy to start, esp. w/ Redick's heel and Blake Griffen's quad; Unfortunate luck for them :/
did you actually predict the blazers to beat a healthy clippers team or just predicted an injury for the clippers? if the former, doesn't count lol
also, pacer homeboy, if they haven't won game 7 yet, you really need to sit down bruh
also, pacer homeboy, if they haven't won game 7 yet, you really need to sit down bruh
(1) Golden State Warriors versus (5) Portland Trailblazers
"I actually screenshot Jet's guarantee quote and put it in the group chat. I said, 'You see this mess?' – Draymond Green.
Golden State may not have Curry at all in this series. The injury prognosis estimates him at game 4 or 5 at the earliest, and even when Curry does come back, will he be close to 100%?
Curry is a very big question mark in this series. We saw how Portland’s star guard played infinitely better the moment Paul was sidelined. The difference in his efficiency was like night and day.
You have to wonder if there will be a similar effect in this series in comparison to their regular season match-ups.. and Lillard already dominated offensively in the regular season match-ups.
Admittedly, this may actually backfire. The consensus on Curry’s defensive efficiency as a point-guard is questionable; is it possible Livingston may bother Lillard more than Curry could have potentially? Eh, I don’t buy it. He’s taller and longer, but I don’t see him slowing down Lillard at all.
The regular season match-ups between these two teams played out very interestingly. It seemed to be shoot-out contests. Lillard has a high scoring average against Golden State. The backcourt does in general, and they shot crazy from three-point percentage. So, how the heck did they lose 3-1 so easily?
Because Golden State did everything they did but more.
How does that factor in Curry? That remains to be seen; I could bring up their lower offensive rating without Curry but it doesn’t carry over a large enough sample to take seriously. We can surmise that their offense will be worse but that doesn’t mean they will lose this series.
Green and Thompson simply have to contribute. Golden State will have to defend better than they have against this team in the regular season. That means, Green absolutely cannot get in foul trouble. Not that it matters, though. Trailblazers don’t have a four or five who can attack the paint, but I’ll get into that in just a little bit.
Here’s what doesn’t help Portland’s case for an upset: Golden State’s defensive holes throughout the season have been: points in the paint, fast break points, and free throw attempts. Portland isn’t really impressive in any of these categories offensively. This tells me that they will live and die in this series by Lillard and McCollum.
On the other end, Portland is one of the worst three-point defending teams, and has arguably the worst defending backcourt.
So these statistics certainly explain why their regular season match-ups have mostly been shootouts. This is an easy case of a mismatch in style and pace.
I say the only way Portland wins this series is if they seriously redefine the way they play their offense and defense. Turn Plumlee into the next Draymond Green. Turn Henderson into Thompson. Their backcourt defense isn’t going to improve overnight sadly but perhaps, just perhaps they can beat Golden State in a shootout without Curry…?
I still have to favor Golden State, though. Curry makes things interesting, but not that interesting. This team can still shoot you out of games, and the storyline in this game may be more Thompson versus Lillard. Winning this series without Curry would be a huge, huge growing experience with this team that just might lead them into steamrolling into a back-to-back championship.
Golden State wins if: Thompson is too hot to stop, Green is defending Lillard’s screen and roll’s perfectly, and their team defense is good enough to beat Portland without their star player.
Portland wins if: Lillard can’t be handled over a four-game series, and his teammates easily take advantage of each and all traps sent to him. Green can’t stay out of foul trouble.
Golden State in six.
"I actually screenshot Jet's guarantee quote and put it in the group chat. I said, 'You see this mess?' – Draymond Green.
Golden State may not have Curry at all in this series. The injury prognosis estimates him at game 4 or 5 at the earliest, and even when Curry does come back, will he be close to 100%?
Curry is a very big question mark in this series. We saw how Portland’s star guard played infinitely better the moment Paul was sidelined. The difference in his efficiency was like night and day.
You have to wonder if there will be a similar effect in this series in comparison to their regular season match-ups.. and Lillard already dominated offensively in the regular season match-ups.
Admittedly, this may actually backfire. The consensus on Curry’s defensive efficiency as a point-guard is questionable; is it possible Livingston may bother Lillard more than Curry could have potentially? Eh, I don’t buy it. He’s taller and longer, but I don’t see him slowing down Lillard at all.
The regular season match-ups between these two teams played out very interestingly. It seemed to be shoot-out contests. Lillard has a high scoring average against Golden State. The backcourt does in general, and they shot crazy from three-point percentage. So, how the heck did they lose 3-1 so easily?
Because Golden State did everything they did but more.
How does that factor in Curry? That remains to be seen; I could bring up their lower offensive rating without Curry but it doesn’t carry over a large enough sample to take seriously. We can surmise that their offense will be worse but that doesn’t mean they will lose this series.
Green and Thompson simply have to contribute. Golden State will have to defend better than they have against this team in the regular season. That means, Green absolutely cannot get in foul trouble. Not that it matters, though. Trailblazers don’t have a four or five who can attack the paint, but I’ll get into that in just a little bit.
Here’s what doesn’t help Portland’s case for an upset: Golden State’s defensive holes throughout the season have been: points in the paint, fast break points, and free throw attempts. Portland isn’t really impressive in any of these categories offensively. This tells me that they will live and die in this series by Lillard and McCollum.
On the other end, Portland is one of the worst three-point defending teams, and has arguably the worst defending backcourt.
So these statistics certainly explain why their regular season match-ups have mostly been shootouts. This is an easy case of a mismatch in style and pace.
I say the only way Portland wins this series is if they seriously redefine the way they play their offense and defense. Turn Plumlee into the next Draymond Green. Turn Henderson into Thompson. Their backcourt defense isn’t going to improve overnight sadly but perhaps, just perhaps they can beat Golden State in a shootout without Curry…?
I still have to favor Golden State, though. Curry makes things interesting, but not that interesting. This team can still shoot you out of games, and the storyline in this game may be more Thompson versus Lillard. Winning this series without Curry would be a huge, huge growing experience with this team that just might lead them into steamrolling into a back-to-back championship.
Golden State wins if: Thompson is too hot to stop, Green is defending Lillard’s screen and roll’s perfectly, and their team defense is good enough to beat Portland without their star player.
Portland wins if: Lillard can’t be handled over a four-game series, and his teammates easily take advantage of each and all traps sent to him. Green can’t stay out of foul trouble.
Golden State in six.
The Pacers have all the momentum at the moment and have outplayed the Raptors most of this series and should have won Game 5(But I won't go into that right now) so I have every right to be optimistic. It's not like I picked them to win the NBA Finals so calm down.
Everything else in your post looks good and I agree with.
Why does the outcome of CLE vs ATL depend on those other matchups?
I messed up the round 2 matchups. I'll edit them real quick
I called it too I'm 5-2 for series so far (fuck you Charlotte and Boston), possibly 6-2 if the Raptors win.
Also that awkward moment where nobody really thinks that Klay is a superstar because he's overshadowed by Curry, but then the latter gets hurt so everyone sees that he actually is. Very impressed with his playoffs.
If Indiana manage to win game 7 the story will be about how dreadful Toronto was, not so much about Indiana. Understandably so as DeRozan and Lowry have been the biggest disappointments of the playoffs so far. But Paul George will get his own credit too as he has little else to work with.
indiana's defence down the fourth quarter was insane. tbh i think raps got a little lucky that they were off their offensive game during that same stretch but hell, i'll take it. congrats to the dudes
e: glad to see valanciunas got more than 26 minutes (28 ~_~) and powell continues to light it up
e: glad to see valanciunas got more than 26 minutes (28 ~_~) and powell continues to light it up
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Indiana just need another scorer.
and a bench.
and some spacing.
and a frontcourt. some kind of frontcourt.
anyway hmm miami/toronto. interesting.
and some spacing.
and a frontcourt. some kind of frontcourt.
anyway hmm miami/toronto. interesting.
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