yes, bmb and i (and jas) had a very interesting discussion on irc last night. If you don't want to read the conversation (which i almost guarantee you don't) then i've boiled down the gist of our conclusions (note: not incontrovertible) right here:
- There are three main ways to create risk:
- Probability Risk, which involves such things as relying on hax, running inaccurate moves, or team matchup-based usefulness (for example, packing a Gastrodon for the sole purpose of handling Rain would be a probability risk because it depends on whether the opponent carries Rain). Bmb told me (and i agree) that due to its uncontrollable and relatively low-depth nature, probability risk will not be explored by this Project.
- Prediction Risk, which involves reading your opponent's moves and then choosing the correct response to the situation. This type of risk is typically the one that most balances the concepts of "safety" vs "reward," and the one that encourages ballsy play. Examples of Prediction risk include switch-in opportunities, such as bringing out a pokemon into a resisted hit when it could be smacked by a super effective one instead, or predicting a switch and using a move that hits the switch-in. While every pokemon does this with its sets to varying degrees, there are ways to make a Pokemon more prone to this type of risk, such as Sucker Punch, Focus Punch, anything Substitute, etc.
- The third type of risk doesn't have a commonly accepted name; in our conversation we called it Intensive Team Risk but i think that a better name may be Liability Risk. This is the risk that people have referred to as "teambuilding risk." It refers to the fact that a pokemon will either be a major asset in a battle or completely, utterly useless. This type of risk is what happens when a Pokemon needs lots of team support (e.g. morning sun volcarona). This risk is amplified by a pokemon becoming more integral to a team's success; backup "win conditions" are what reduce/mitigate this risk. Some things that add to this risk are: weather dependency, prevalence of hard counters, hazard or status weakness - basically any scenario in which x requirement must be fulfilled for y mon to function at peak capacity fulfills this. Again, all pokemon have this risk in varying amounts. Alternatively, liability risk can occur when the mon itself doesn't rely on the team, but rather that if the mon fails to execute its role, the team completely crumbles into dust (Think Deoxys-S HO). It's important to note the distinction between Liability Risk and Probability Risk when it comes to team matchups - liability risk is determined by how much your team benefits your Pokemon, whereas Probability Risk is determined by how much your Opponent's team benefits your Pokemon.
- The more, the merrier, it was decided, and thus, neither Prediction Risk nor Liability Risk are to be excluded from the discussion. It doesn't necessarily mean that CAP4 has to embody both of these principles (though it would be cool if it did). It means it /can/ embody both of these principles, though. The primo example of a pokemon that embodies liability risk is Shedinja. The primo example of a pokemon that embodies prediction risk is the Kecleon set with Magic Coat / Snatch / Sucker Punch / Focus Punch. Ideally, CAP4 would be neither extreme, but somewhere in the middle. (and better than either)
- Once we had more or less laid out the definitions of risk, we began to brainstorm what types of pokemon best embodied risk. Right off the bat bmb ruled out glass cannons, a decision with which i'm inclined to agree. HO pokemon don't really fulfill this requirement too much - they're rather mindless to play as well as typically not being very essential to a team's play. they don't really actually embody riskiness that well, when you come to think about it. Another archetype we ruled out was slow, bulky support or walls. These Pokemon, such as Ferrothorn, tend to be played more cautiously, and making risky bulky support just didn't seem to make much sense to anyone.
- So then the question was what pokemon SHOULD we make? We determined basically three things that would probably be one of the roads that CAP4 would go down: fast, moderately frail support; slow and frail, yet offense; or bulky boosting. An example of the first category would be something like Deoxys-S or a Taunt Lead Terrakion. The second category would be exemplified by Breloom or Honchkrow. The third category can be seen in Reuniclus or Scrafty.
- The last thing we discussed (briefly) was typing. The general consensus was that the typing would have to be risky - that is, have some major upshots that could be capitalized on, but also major downsides that would bite you in the ass with one wrong turn. I imagine this will be expanded upon greatly in the next thread to come.
Now that's a basic summary of what we discussed in the chatlog bmb posted, but remember that just because i got to have an hour of discussion with the TL does not mean what's in this post is word of god (actual word of god, from BMB, has been put in bold for your convenience). it's just my speculations with the help of BMB and jazzers.
As for some of the points that we talked about that we disagreed on, i'd like to make my own case:
FIRST, about risk. I would definitely like a good combination of liability risk and prediction risk. I think it would make a more interesting Pokemon to use, not to mention a more interesting one to make, with the balancing act it provides. The added challenge would be to produce a mon that's risky but still worth the payoff - i feel like toxicroak is an example of the "breaking point" here. His bulk up set is a great example of risk - Liability Risk in needing rain up, needing to avoid status, needing phazers removed, and needing setup bait lured; Prediction Risk in needing to come in safely and knowing when to use his moveset of sub/bu/sucker punch/drain punch at the proper times.
One thing i don't like is the idea of Liability Risk in which the Pokemon is necessary to set up the rest of your team's strategy - i don't want to be making a Politoed. First, I feel that it will just turn into a "let's make gravity/hail/trick room good" which is... meh at best, and doesn't really explore risk. Second, it makes the risk dependent on the rest of the team's setup, and not on the mon itself. It would be perfectly viable to run a CAP4 with this kind of goal and experience little risk at all.
SECOND, about role. i feel that a fast support is not as good of an idea as jas does. much as i'd like to continue the whole cap parallel thing up through #4, fast support doesn't seem like it can do it. The only way to do support risky is to make a Pokemon that uses its presence to force switches, then takes those free switches to do support-y things, which it otherwise couldn't do. However, i'm afraid that there's only two options for this: 1) Its offensive options become better in general than its support options and it lapses into sweeping (see syclant) which we already said we don't want to do, or else its support options become better in general than its offensive options and it becomes safe or else just plain bad (see fidgit or deo-s). I don't think there is a line to walk in which the two are in perfect harmony.
I feel that Slow Offense (Breloom, Toxicroak, RU Honchkrow, NU Cacturne) is the best way to take this concept because it really forces the user to think when using the mon, and to truly make the /best play/ every step of the way. furthermore, these do require a decent amount of team support to be used to the fullest of their potential, but are typically the most rewarding to use and difficult to stop once the snowball gets rolling. I think this embodies risky business perfectly.
EDIT: jesus fuck how do you get ninja'd by BMB of all people