Official NBA 16-17' Season Thread

trikx_insane

trikx_insane

Predicts:

Warriors vs Blazers (4-1)
Clippers vs Jazz (4-3)
Spurs vs Grizzlies (4-2)
Rockets vs Thunder (4-1)

Celtics vs Bulls (4-2)
Wizards vs Hawks (4-3)
Cavaliers vs Pacers (4-2)
Raptors vs Bucks (4-1)

My Award Choices:
MVP: James Harden (1st), Russell Westbrook (2nd), Kawhi Leonard (3rd)
DPOY: Draymond Green (1st), Rudy Gobert (2nd), Kawhi Leonard (3rd)
6MOTY: Andre Igoudola (1st), Eric Gordon (2nd), Tyler Johnson (3rd)
COTY: Mike D'Antoni (1st), Erik Spoelstra (2nd), Brad Stevens (3rd)
ROTY: Dario Saric (1st), Malcolm Brogdon (2nd), Buddy Hield (3rd)

edit: MIP - nikola jokic
 
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kamranlaker

kamranlaker

Pretty Similar to trikx_insane's predictions.. decided to make my own
Predictions:

Warriors vs Blazers (4-0)
Clippers vs Jazz (4-3)
Spurs vs Grizzlies (4-1)
Rockets vs Thunder (4-1)

Celtics vs Bulls (4-2)
Wizards vs Hawks (4-2)
Cavaliers vs Pacers (4-2)
Raptors vs Bucks (4-1)

My Award Choices:
MVP: James Harden (1st), Russell Westbrook (2nd), Kawhi Leonard (3rd)
DPOY: Draymond Green (1st), Rudy Gobert (2nd), Kawhi Leonard (3rd)
6MOTY: Andre Igoudola (1st), Eric Gordon (2nd), Lou Williams (3rd)
COTY: Mike D'Antoni (1st), Brad Stevens (2nd), Quin Snyder (3rd)
ROTY: Malcolm Brogdon (1st), Dario Sarić (2nd), Joel Embiid (3rd)
 
suapah

suapah

stfu anime pfp
is a Tiering Contributoris a Community Leader Alumnusis a Two-Time Past SCL Champion
My predictions:

Warriors vs Blazers (4-0)
Clippers vs Jazz (4-3)
Spurs vs Grizzlies (4-1)
Rockets vs Thunder (4-2)

Celtics vs Bulls (4-3)
Wizards vs Hawks (4-2)
Cavaliers vs Pacers (4-1)
Raptors vs Bucks (4-1)

My Award Choices:
MVP: Russell Westbrook (1st), James Harden (2nd), Kawhi Leonard (3rd)
DPOY: Draymond Green (1st), Rudy Gobert (2nd), Kawhi Leonard (3rd)
6MOTY: Andre Igoudola (1st), Eric Gordon (2nd), James Johnson (3rd)
COTY: Greg Popovich (1st), Erik Spoelstra (2nd), Mike D'Antoni (3rd)
ROTY: Malcolm Brogdon (1st), Dario Sarić (2nd), Joel Embiid (3rd)
MIP: Giannis Antetokounmpo (1st), Rudy Gobert (2nd), Demar Derozan (3rd)

First team

G: Russell Westbrook
G: James Harden
F: Lebron James
F: Kawhi Leonard
C: Anthony Davis

Second team

G: Steph Curry
G: Isaiah Thomas
F: Kevin Durant
F: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Rudy Gobert

Third team

G: Demar Derozan
G: John Wall
F: Jimmy Butler
F: Draymond Green
C: Marc Gasol
 

DerrickRose

*Cries face down in a mirror* Oh, right… the NBA Playoffs…

We’re finally here! What a regular season we’ve had. There have been plenty of interesting storylines around the league. Pace and space is in. More teams and players are constantly making and breaking three-pointers at record paces. Teams overall have become significantly more efficient in their offense. Today’s defense is less predicated in two traditional big men protecting the rim and more about having small guys who can switch on perimeter players and shoot the three on the other end. Durant ended up fitting in beautifully, LeBron is on the team that has struggled defensively at a level no former championship team ever has crossed, San Antonio is fine without Duncan, and no head coach was fired for the first time in history. All right, that’s enough small talk. Let’s analyze why your picks are wrong.
Disclaimer: If it seems like my analysis is less stellar than past year’s, it’s because I’ve been a depressed wreck the past two weeks. I apologize.

(3) Houston Rockets versus (6) Oklahoma City Thunder
"Trail of Tears" now refers to the movement of crying OKC fans to GSW.” – MTGopher

Rockets executives around a conference room table
"Studies show we need to improve our D. Suggestions?"
"D'Antoni?" – JackJuice

“Y’all niggas trippin’” – Russell Westbrook


This is the most anticipated first round match-up of the playoffs. This year’s MVP race is the closest we’ve had in a long time, and the style of Harden and Westbrook are the perfect allegories as to where the league is currently headed in team philosophies.

On one end you have Harden who represents the perfect pace and space offense Mike D’Antoni has been dreaming of since the days of Steve Nash. He possesses a guard who is capable of scoring in what is now considered the most efficient way possible: Morey Ball which is also known as, threes and points in the paint. Almost every possession starts in Harden’s hands like many fans have dreamed of and he plays like a full-time point guard. There are always four shooters and one center, and everything starts with pushing the tempo, scoring off of spot-up 3’s, a free throw, or a drive in the lane. If a mid-range shot is to be taken (Houston takes among the least in the entire league), it’s also likely through Harden who’s not half bad in isolations.

On the other end, Westbrook represents the brass and bold of today’s guard-centric league. Westbrook has less space to operate with than Harden, so he compensates with his amazing athleticism and strength. He crashes the glass, is often the main finisher in a fastbreak, and is pretty much a one-man show for the most part. He is a small-forward in a point-guard’s body, and he does his best to create scoring opportunities for his lackluster spot-up shooters and rugged frontline.

So, who will come out on top? … Are you asking about the MVP race or the series? Heh, not that it matters, MVP voting begins on Friday you losers.

Although both teams are on the upper-end of pacing, it would be wise for Oklahoma City to attempt to limit the possessions per game more. Houston is more efficient, has better shooters, and overall better offensive chemistry. The type of game Houston wants is a medium to slow tempo depending on the line-up out there. I imagine going small is a definite no because I can’t conceive a line-up from this team where they outsmart D’Antoni at his own game while having less talent to play small.

What’s probably going to happen is that they’re going to look at how they beat San Antonio last year and make small modifications. They’re going to run the risk of crashing the glass and bullying Houston’s sole big man and hope it cashes out. Houston also gives up the most points in the paint throughout the league. On one hand, Oklahoma City are superior rebounders, superior at transition defense (likely because they crash the glass anyway), and have some athletic wingmen that might pose interesting results. We’ve already seen Harden struggle offensively in this series overall. If Oklahoma City can prevent Houston from getting out and running by controlling the glass, they stand a chance. If their role players make open shots, they stand a better chance. If their wingmen actually manage to limit Houston’s talented offensive players, they win.

But these are all very big ifs. While Oklahoma City is a great defensive team, they rank 30th in Roll Man defense. Nene and Capela are some of the best rolling big men in today’s league and Houston is a top spot-up shooting team. Combine all of this with Harden’s isolation efficiency (Oklahoma City is actually average in isolation defense) and their superior ability to move the ball, it’s very hard to picture a seven game series where this team is limited offensively four out of seven times.

Match-up wise, there’s a few interesting things to note. Beverly vs Westbrook is one we understood for a long time. We know what to expect from these two guys at this point, but I’m interested in seeing if Roberson, a top caliber defender, can make himself as useful as he did last year. Limit hard and make open shots are all he has to do. Oladipo certainly has to contribute in some form here as well.

Let’s look at the Mario Brothers. I hear Adams is in a bit of a funk, but I won’t take that into account. He’s a very good rebounder along with Kanter. Kanter is also Oklahoma City’s third leading scorer behind Oladipo. Therein lays another problem here: Kanter is still one of the worst defensive big men, but Oklahoma City absolutely needs him in order to keep up with Houston in scoring… that is unless their defense is good enough to where this is a non-factor.

Oklahoma City is simply the team with less room for error, and I expect Houston to win fairly easily, actually. It won’t be a super short series, but it won’t be a long one either. This Houston team is a top ten offense of all-time in the history of the league. Oklahoma City will fail to keep up.
Houston wins if: They keep the pacing up, their shooters shoot, their big men score, and they make Westbrook work.

Oklahoma City wins if: They bruise ‘em on the boards, Westbrook puts on performances that would make Michael Jordan wide-eyed, and Roberson/Oladipo become legit two-way performers.

Houston in five.

(4) Los Angeles Clippers versus (5) Utah Jazz

”I would roast the Jazz, but my daughter needs doctors that know what the fuck they're doing, so I'll see you guys in one of the LA roasts.” – GorillaX

Kings go on a 22-3 run to come back and beat the Clippers
“If you dont love that you dont love clippers basketball!” – mrlesa95

“I've lived in Southern California my entire life and the first Clippers fan I ever encountered was an Australian on reddit.” – projectionist88





Man, here we are. Another 4/5 seed match-up in the West. The four seed is the perceived favorite statistically, historically, and talent wise; nobody talks about it much, but the team in the 5 spot ends up winning. This has happened in the West the last 5 or 6 times… this exact scenario. We call it the 4 seed curse.

I don’t buy into superstitions though, but I just thought it’d be interesting to mention.
I’ve seen this match-up play out a couple of times in the regular season, and Utah had a very, very tough time containing Los Angeles; especially their perimeter guys. I do recall a Utah fan once saying in a Reddit post that Jamal Crawford is a certified Jazzkiller.

Much of it probably has to do with their individual defensive capabilities. Gobert is not leaving that painted area (but we’ll talk about that in a little bit), and it’s entirely up to the guards to be able to contest and make it tough for guys way out there on an island. George Hill also has no hope in hell slowing down Chris Paul.

I will give it to Utah in that they have a reputable defense thanks to Gobert. Jordan and Griffin have somewhat been limited in all four meetings. Rivers still could devise a small line-up that forces Gobert outside of the paint. That’s where the real problems might occur for this Utah team daring to play a traditional, slow pace.

This series will be heavily predicated on how well Utah can defend the ball handlers, suddenly shoot well in spot-ups (they don’t), and how they can manage to use Gobert inside the paint or not. That’s going to be difficult to do if… your team has played injured all year and you haven’t really developed any real chemistry in formulating flexible line-ups and practicing certain situations.

So, Utah lacks intangibles, has less playoff experience, is defensively weak where Los Angeles is offensively strong, lack homecourt advantage, and likely less flexibility with Gobert. I love Utah. I rooted for them since the beginning of the season, but it’s hard to formulate a solid argument for them being the favorites here. Honestly, the four seed curse is the best argument I can come up with.

Los Angeles wins if: Crawford and friends truly are Jazzkillers, they simply can’t be offensively contained, the pace didn’t slow down and Chris Paul proves why he’s still one of the best all-around point guards around.

Utah wins if: four seed curse, Utah goes hot from 3 while Los Angeles goes cold, Gobert makes a strong impact in slowing the pace down.
Los Angeles in six.

(4) Washington Wizards versus (5) Atlanta Hawks

“Fastest collapse since I-85.” – NiceKidWithGlasses

"John Wall grew up without a father figure and it showed today on the court." -Colin Cowherd



This is a very difficult series to analyze.

As bad as Atlanta has been, they do have defensive advantages (spot-up, transition, points in the paint) that could play a key role in deciding their chances here. Washington struggled offensively in the season series despite still winning 3-1.

Both teams have had the Jekyll and Hyde effect. On some nights, they’re world beaters. On other nights, they’re the sorriest squads in town. This has the potential to be one of those series where the score is lopsided but always the opposite team every game.

Ian Mahinmi is stated to be missing the first few games, so Atlanta might enjoy a nice rebounding advantage to bolster their defense. Morris/Millsap is an interesting frontline match-up to think about. Millsap struggled more often than he succeeded. Usually, I trust Millsap in the playoffs, but he’s been through a few injuries late in the season. Morris and Gortat aren’t exactly good post-up and isolation defenders looking at the numbers (they give up an average of about (1.5-2 points a possession). If Atlanta is successful running their offense through Millsap and Hardaway gets streaky, this is going to be a long series at the least.

Here’s the thing about Howard… he’s been their most consistent player in the season series and a key factor in their defensive advantages, so Mahinmi being sidelined and Gortat being the only big man in his way should be pretty good for Atlanta. Jason Smith has recently become a three-point threat, though, and Howard’s history with jump shooting centers is not a pretty one. Atlanta may have the frontcourt advantages defensively (Sefolosha, Millsap, and Howard), but Washington contains plentiful backcourt talent. It also doesn’t help that Atlanta’s P&R Ball Handler play defense is ranked bottom ten. Wall and Beal are one of the highest scoring backcourts in the league, and with Jennings off the bench, even a streaky Hardaway Jr. would find it tough to carry backcourt shooting and scoring without Schroeder/Bazemore.

So, basically, this series could go in either direction depending on who you place more faith in. It might simply come down to coaching and last five-minute scoring. I suppose we can say the intangibles go in Washington’s direction: homecourt, best player from both teams, Howard’s free throws, great crunch time numbers, and a higher point differential. Atlanta, though, is a team that is actually built for playoff basketball in their defense and rebounding.

It will pretty much come down to how effective defensively Howard and the rest of the front line are versus how efficient Washington’s backcourt is with Mahinmi being gone. Maybe Jason Smith can work some chemistry with the backcourt and draw Howard out the paint. Maybe Howard’s free throws become a problem. Maybe Atlanta’s backcourt is just that bad. Maybe there’s a Godsap sighting.
I will say though… that it doesn’t help that Atlanta’s major weakness (offensive efficiency) plays into Washington’s greatest strength (transition scoring).

It’s all up in the air, folks. Like any other east 4/5 match-up. Flip a coin or something.

Washington wins if: their backcourt is too much, Jason Smith is on fire from outside, their bench wasn’t terribad, pace is fast and they get out and run out of Atlanta’s inefficient offense

Atlanta wins if: defense defense defense, Howard is still a good piece in the playoffs, their backcourt is actually better than they’ve ever been, GodSap, Washington couldn’t break out of the slow pace.

Washington in six

(3) Toronto Raptors versus (6) Milwaukee Bucks
Kyle Lowry, asked about his ankle: "I'm Wolverine, man. You know Wolverine? I'm Wolverine, except for when I die, I'mma just die"

“Dude legit looks like Inspector Gadget” – qule on Giannis




Here we are again, top-seeded Toronto versus a team they are favored against. Here we go again with Jason Kidd coaching a team against Toronto. Here we are again, a large forward/guard type of player likely to individually dominate Toronto.

Nah, I can’t do Toronto like that. It’s been years for them being together. You have to admit, though, Toronto is a strange team to pin down in the playoffs. Considering that they’ve only won series that extend to game 7 and haven’t won a game 1 in this era, it’s probably safe to say this isn’t likely to be a short series.

But we still have to give credit to DeRozan’s growth offensively this season. They still acquired two great pieces in P.J. Tucker and Ibaka. They’re healthy, experienced, and once again have home court advantage. What could possibly go wrong?

A lot could, I guess. Milwaukee has a lot of ways to trap and mess up passing lanes with lengthy perimeter guys (courtesy of Jason Kidd’s style). They have very good individual defenders in Snell, Delly, Middleton, and Brogdon. I understand Toronto has won the majority of the regular season match-ups even dating back to Greek Freak’s rookie year, but they do have a terrible tendency to never be able to completely outplay the opposing team’s backcourt they supposedly are more talented than. See: Washington, Indiana, and Brooklyn.

Kidd typically has Greek Freak at the four, so he’s likely to see more minutes being guarded by Ibaka perhaps? Or will Casey go small just as much with Carroll at four? I’m not entirely sure how all of this plays out, but looking at the three-point percentage/points outside the paint from Giannis and the superior rebounding of Toronto, I don’t see a reason to jump to Milwaukee’s side yet.

Offensively, Milwaukee lacks the firepower to likely keep up with Toronto if they maintain even a portion of their regular offensive efficiency. They’re so dependent on transition, successful spot-up shooting from sketchy spot-up shooters, and Giannis to just do his thing. Toronto to me feels more like a complete team. Toronto is top ten in paint defense, can switch all over the place thanks to finally acquiring versatile forwards, and DeRozan has reached a level where he’s an efficient scorer without shooting threes. At least on paper, Toronto finally looks like a team I can confidently pick to advance.

This series will definitely go to seven though regardless. That’s just how Toronto works. I’ll take them, but I won’t like it.

Toronto wins if: Lowry/DeRozan are unbothered by traps, their role players make shots, Ibaka/Patterson are the superior defensive, quick frontline we thought they were.

Milwaukee wins if: Giannis is hot from deep, Lowry/DeRozan just aren’t making long shots, the length of Milwaukee makes it impossible for Toronto to share the ball. Trying to predict Kidd’s coaching strategy is a laugh.

Toronto in seven.

(1) Boston Celtics versus (8) Chicago Bulls
“[Spears] The Bulls say guard Rajon Rondo has been suspended by the Bulls for one game, tonight versus Portland, for conduct detrimental to the team.” "So Rondo playing basketball” -Anonymous

“Kelly "Maple Dick" "White Michael Jordan" "Literal GOAT" Olynyk with the crisp +29 off the bench.” - -poncho-





May I just start off by saying that Boston is the weakest top seed we’ve seen for some time? I mean, they’re near the bottom of the league in rebounding, their defensive efficiency is outside the top ten, and they’re 5-10 against the 2-5 seeds. Heck, they technically haven’t won a playoff series as a group yet.
I just have a very hard time trusting these guys over, well, any team.

But what if that team is even less consistent? What if that team has statistics that support Wade being out benefited them? What if it still just makes no fucking sense to have Rondo/Butler/Wade all on the floor together?

The season series seems to tell a simple story. Chicago’s second choice points were factors in them winning or losing. Gibson/Lopez are the guilty parties here, but ever since Chicago traded Gibson away, they’ve fallen in offensive rebounding. So, that’s a plus for Boston.
They have more help to surround Isiah than they did last year, or at least, I hope they do. Horford is the only piece they truly added, but perhaps the improved offense of the surrounding cast is good as well. We all know the playoffs tend to be different because you can focus in on team’s tendencies. I worry about Boston being bothered when Isiah is somehow off rhythm. It is simply imperative that Horford, Olynyk, and the backcourt make their spot-ups.

Now, here’s where Boston looks flimsy (outside of their rebounding and overall team defense) … Isiah is 5’9”. At best. Can you say, attack, attack, attack?

In fact, if I’m Chicago, I’m attacking Isiah/Horford every trip down the floor; especially if I’m having Wade at point. Isolate him. Pick him apart with Horford and bank on him not being able to block it or threaten an offensive board if he helps. If Chicago can make Isiah/Horford liabilities in any way, they win, because they depend on both of these guys entirely too much.

Then you have the Wade Playoff Factor… best example you have of this is last year. Wade has this tendency to just mysteriously become amazing from behind the arc at certain times and has made clutch shot after clutch shot. Of course, Boston is no slouch in fourth quarter scoring, but Wade still must be accounted for even at 35. Bradley historically is also his arch-nemesis. Should be interesting.
Problems with Chicago though is that they may not have much talent to offensively stop a guy like Horford on the perimeter. They can throw multiple guys at Isiah and trap him as much as they want, but Horford shoots threes now. You can’t honestly expect guys like Lopez and Felicio to be out there in the perimeter to guard Horford and crash the glass successfully.

Either way, the winner of this series will be decided on the glass and if Isiah’s teammates can contribute or not. I’m really serious in saying that this series will be closer than most people think. That’s weird talking about a 1/8 match-up but that truly is the case with this Boston team.

Boston wins if: they keep up with Chicago on the glass, Isiah isn’t a liability and gets spot-up shooting help, and perimeter defenders in Bradley, Smart, and friends do their job defensively, Horford makes their frontcourt pay in pace-and-space.

Chicago wins if: Isiah is pushed around, Chicago dominates the boards, playoff Wade.

Boston in seven.

(2) Cleveland Cavaliers versus (7) Indiana Pacers
“Keep my kids’ name out of your mouth, keep my family out of your mouth. This is dad to dad. It’s a problem now.”
“Another appearance by the Sheriff” – XZTALVENARNZEGOMSAYT

“PG13 said he was most excited to see Isaiah Thomas during All Star Weekend. PG13 to Boston = confirmed” – I_Enjoy_Taffy




LeBron has never lost in the first round in his entire career, so I won’t spend too much time on this one.
This will be an interesting series if only to view how quickly Cleveland “flips the switch”. Even if they maintain the same 22nd ranking of defensive efficiency, their offense is more than enough to end Indiana. Indiana has serious depth issues to address. Stats show that outside of George and Turner, Indiana tends to struggle to outscore their opponents. They are also almost dead last in playing Morey Ball (scoring in the restricted area or behind the arc). Their dependency on George is clear.

To be honest, the team has actually regressed defensively from last year too. There simply isn’t a single case for Indiana for a potential upset, but hey, George/Stephenson versus LeBron is always entertaining. Some other interesting stats to note is that Indiana is top five in both isolation and transition defense… but how did they regress defensively from last year? Bleh, I’m not wasting my energy to find out on a first-round exit team.

Don’t expect much for this series to be more than a measuring stick on where Cleveland is defensively.

Cleveland wins if: any two combinations of LeBron/Kyrie/Love show up, they score in their isolations, and LeBron assists on threes

Indiana wins if: I get a girlfriend

Cleveland in five

(2) San Antonio Spurs versus (7) Memphis Grizzlies
“This guy was made in a lab by Pop and Tim under the AT&T Center. “ – Orod23 on Kawhi

“After seeing this man's wife I'm not doubting him. Ever. In anything.” – KD_All_Day on coach Fizdale





Man, not this shit again.

News broke out Thursday that Tony Allen will be out indefinitely. Any chance Memphis had going into this series just dropped to 0%.

There’s no doubt this will be an ugly, slow-paced series. Fizdale did a decent job re-inventing Memphis in a way that maintains their defensive strength while implementing slightly more three-point shooting and relegating Randolph to the bench. Both Marc Gasol and Randolph should be fine for their match-ups for the most part. I… don’t really trust Aldridge these days, and we all know Pau Gasol’s defensive history. Still, Memphis struggled post All-Star mightily, and their offense is only ranked below average in efficiency at 17th.

The problem for Memphis comes in when we look at the 2-3 positions. Leonard by far will be the most talented and important player from both teams. Who does Memphis have to slow him down? 40-year-old Vince Carter? James Ennis III? They have no hope in hell. The only backcourt scorer they can rely on is Conley, and once Leonard is on Conley, that’ll shut him down quick. Memphis doesn’t have that same luxury.

Tony Parker’s performance this series could easily make this a 4-0 affair. They honestly don’t really need him, but if his output is anywhere close to Conley’s, they’re finished. They can hide Parker or bench him for Mills if he’s terrible.

There’s simply not much for me to talk about in this series. Most of you probably won’t even read this and move on.

San Antonio wins if: Leonard has two legs, two arms, and can breathe.

Memphis wins if: Trump is impeached in the next few weeks.

San Antonio in four.

(1) Golden State Warriors versus (8) Portland Trailblazers

“Guess what bricks are made of?
Klay.” – SupahBallin

“Zaza Pachulia as a fringe all-star every year is probably my favorite NBA glitch.” – APF29



Bleeeeeeeeh can I skip this one? Please? Uhhh Portland has one of the worst P&R Ball Handler team defense. Golden State is a top ten all-time offensive team for a third year. Golden State wins four out of five of their match-ups. I think.

Golden State simply beats this team at every single relevant metric. You’re probably skipping over this match-up.

Portland has no chance in hell outside of a serious injury to two or three players. Nurkic would have made this interesting… maybe. It’s the only part of Golden State’s defense that’s less than absolutely perfect.

Golden State wins if: they have five players on the court.

Portland wins if: Adam Silver overturns the Chris Paul Lakers trade.

Golden State in four


MVP: Harden
Coach of the Year: D'Antoni
Rookie of the Year: Brogdon
Most Improved: Nikola Jokic
Sixth man of the Year: Eric Gordon
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert (Kawhi will prob win it tho but I predict voter fatigue)
 
kamranlaker

kamranlaker

DerrickRose said:
*Cries face down in a mirror* Oh, right… the NBA Playoffs…

We’re finally here! What a regular season we’ve had. There have been plenty of interesting storylines around the league. Pace and space is in. More teams and players are constantly making and breaking three-pointers at record paces. Teams overall have become significantly more efficient in their offense. Today’s defense is less predicated in two traditional big men protecting the rim and more about having small guys who can switch on perimeter players and shoot the three on the other end. Durant ended up fitting in beautifully, LeBron is on the team that has struggled defensively at a level no former championship team ever has crossed, San Antonio is fine without Duncan, and no head coach was fired for the first time in history. All right, that’s enough small talk. Let’s analyze why your picks are wrong.
Disclaimer: If it seems like my analysis is less stellar than past year’s, it’s because I’ve been a depressed wreck the past two weeks. I apologize.

(3) Houston Rockets versus (6) Oklahoma City Thunder
"Trail of Tears" now refers to the movement of crying OKC fans to GSW.” – MTGopher

Rockets executives around a conference room table
"Studies show we need to improve our D. Suggestions?"
"D'Antoni?" – JackJuice

“Y’all niggas trippin’” – Russell Westbrook


This is the most anticipated first round match-up of the playoffs. This year’s MVP race is the closest we’ve had in a long time, and the style of Harden and Westbrook are the perfect allegories as to where the league is currently headed in team philosophies.

On one end you have Harden who represents the perfect pace and space offense Mike D’Antoni has been dreaming of since the days of Steve Nash. He possesses a guard who is capable of scoring in what is now considered the most efficient way possible: Morey Ball which is also known as, threes and points in the paint. Almost every possession starts in Harden’s hands like many fans have dreamed of and he plays like a full-time point guard. There are always four shooters and one center, and everything starts with pushing the tempo, scoring off of spot-up 3’s, a free throw, or a drive in the lane. If a mid-range shot is to be taken (Houston takes among the least in the entire league), it’s also likely through Harden who’s not half bad in isolations.

On the other end, Westbrook represents the brass and bold of today’s guard-centric league. Westbrook has less space to operate with than Harden, so he compensates with his amazing athleticism and strength. He crashes the glass, is often the main finisher in a fastbreak, and is pretty much a one-man show for the most part. He is a small-forward in a point-guard’s body, and he does his best to create scoring opportunities for his lackluster spot-up shooters and rugged frontline.

So, who will come out on top? … Are you asking about the MVP race or the series? Heh, not that it matters, MVP voting begins on Friday you losers.

Although both teams are on the upper-end of pacing, it would be wise for Oklahoma City to attempt to limit the possessions per game more. Houston is more efficient, has better shooters, and overall better offensive chemistry. The type of game Houston wants is a medium to slow tempo depending on the line-up out there. I imagine going small is a definite no because I can’t conceive a line-up from this team where they outsmart D’Antoni at his own game while having less talent to play small.

What’s probably going to happen is that they’re going to look at how they beat San Antonio last year and make small modifications. They’re going to run the risk of crashing the glass and bullying Houston’s sole big man and hope it cashes out. Houston also gives up the most points in the paint throughout the league. On one hand, Oklahoma City are superior rebounders, superior at transition defense (likely because they crash the glass anyway), and have some athletic wingmen that might pose interesting results. We’ve already seen Harden struggle offensively in this series overall. If Oklahoma City can prevent Houston from getting out and running by controlling the glass, they stand a chance. If their role players make open shots, they stand a better chance. If their wingmen actually manage to limit Houston’s talented offensive players, they win.

But these are all very big ifs. While Oklahoma City is a great defensive team, they rank 30th in Roll Man defense. Nene and Capela are some of the best rolling big men in today’s league and Houston is a top spot-up shooting team. Combine all of this with Harden’s isolation efficiency (Oklahoma City is actually average in isolation defense) and their superior ability to move the ball, it’s very hard to picture a seven game series where this team is limited offensively four out of seven times.

Match-up wise, there’s a few interesting things to note. Beverly vs Westbrook is one we understood for a long time. We know what to expect from these two guys at this point, but I’m interested in seeing if Roberson, a top caliber defender, can make himself as useful as he did last year. Limit hard and make open shots are all he has to do. Oladipo certainly has to contribute in some form here as well.

Let’s look at the Mario Brothers. I hear Adams is in a bit of a funk, but I won’t take that into account. He’s a very good rebounder along with Kanter. Kanter is also Oklahoma City’s third leading scorer behind Oladipo. Therein lays another problem here: Kanter is still one of the worst defensive big men, but Oklahoma City absolutely needs him in order to keep up with Houston in scoring… that is unless their defense is good enough to where this is a non-factor.

Oklahoma City is simply the team with less room for error, and I expect Houston to win fairly easily, actually. It won’t be a super short series, but it won’t be a long one either. This Houston team is a top ten offense of all-time in the history of the league. Oklahoma City will fail to keep up.
Houston wins if: They keep the pacing up, their shooters shoot, their big men score, and they make Westbrook work.

Oklahoma City wins if: They bruise ‘em on the boards, Westbrook puts on performances that would make Michael Jordan wide-eyed, and Roberson/Oladipo become legit two-way performers.

Houston in five.

(4) Los Angeles Clippers versus (5) Utah Jazz

”I would roast the Jazz, but my daughter needs doctors that know what the fuck they're doing, so I'll see you guys in one of the LA roasts.” – GorillaX

Kings go on a 22-3 run to come back and beat the Clippers
“If you dont love that you dont love clippers basketball!” – mrlesa95

“I've lived in Southern California my entire life and the first Clippers fan I ever encountered was an Australian on reddit.” – projectionist88





Man, here we are. Another 4/5 seed match-up in the West. The four seed is the perceived favorite statistically, historically, and talent wise; nobody talks about it much, but the team in the 5 spot ends up winning. This has happened in the West the last 5 or 6 times… this exact scenario. We call it the 4 seed curse.

I don’t buy into superstitions though, but I just thought it’d be interesting to mention.
I’ve seen this match-up play out a couple of times in the regular season, and Utah had a very, very tough time containing Los Angeles; especially their perimeter guys. I do recall a Utah fan once saying in a Reddit post that Jamal Crawford is a certified Jazzkiller.

Much of it probably has to do with their individual defensive capabilities. Gobert is not leaving that painted area (but we’ll talk about that in a little bit), and it’s entirely up to the guards to be able to contest and make it tough for guys way out there on an island. George Hill also has no hope in hell slowing down Chris Paul.

I will give it to Utah in that they have a reputable defense thanks to Gobert. Jordan and Griffin have somewhat been limited in all four meetings. Rivers still could devise a small line-up that forces Gobert outside of the paint. That’s where the real problems might occur for this Utah team daring to play a traditional, slow pace.

This series will be heavily predicated on how well Utah can defend the ball handlers, suddenly shoot well in spot-ups (they don’t), and how they can manage to use Gobert inside the paint or not. That’s going to be difficult to do if… your team has played injured all year and you haven’t really developed any real chemistry in formulating flexible line-ups and practicing certain situations.

So, Utah lacks intangibles, has less playoff experience, is defensively weak where Los Angeles is offensively strong, lack homecourt advantage, and likely less flexibility with Gobert. I love Utah. I rooted for them since the beginning of the season, but it’s hard to formulate a solid argument for them being the favorites here. Honestly, the four seed curse is the best argument I can come up with.

Los Angeles wins if: Crawford and friends truly are Jazzkillers, they simply can’t be offensively contained, the pace didn’t slow down and Chris Paul proves why he’s still one of the best all-around point guards around.

Utah wins if: four seed curse, Utah goes hot from 3 while Los Angeles goes cold, Gobert makes a strong impact in slowing the pace down.
Los Angeles in six.

(4) Washington Wizards versus (5) Atlanta Hawks

“Fastest collapse since I-85.” – NiceKidWithGlasses

"John Wall grew up without a father figure and it showed today on the court." -Colin Cowherd



This is a very difficult series to analyze.

As bad as Atlanta has been, they do have defensive advantages (spot-up, transition, points in the paint) that could play a key role in deciding their chances here. Washington struggled offensively in the season series despite still winning 3-1.

Both teams have had the Jekyll and Hyde effect. On some nights, they’re world beaters. On other nights, they’re the sorriest squads in town. This has the potential to be one of those series where the score is lopsided but always the opposite team every game.

Ian Mahinmi is stated to be missing the first few games, so Atlanta might enjoy a nice rebounding advantage to bolster their defense. Morris/Millsap is an interesting frontline match-up to think about. Millsap struggled more often than he succeeded. Usually, I trust Millsap in the playoffs, but he’s been through a few injuries late in the season. Morris and Gortat aren’t exactly good post-up and isolation defenders looking at the numbers (they give up an average of about (1.5-2 points a possession). If Atlanta is successful running their offense through Millsap and Hardaway gets streaky, this is going to be a long series at the least.

Here’s the thing about Howard… he’s been their most consistent player in the season series and a key factor in their defensive advantages, so Mahinmi being sidelined and Gortat being the only big man in his way should be pretty good for Atlanta. Jason Smith has recently become a three-point threat, though, and Howard’s history with jump shooting centers is not a pretty one. Atlanta may have the frontcourt advantages defensively (Sefolosha, Millsap, and Howard), but Washington contains plentiful backcourt talent. It also doesn’t help that Atlanta’s P&R Ball Handler play defense is ranked bottom ten. Wall and Beal are one of the highest scoring backcourts in the league, and with Jennings off the bench, even a streaky Hardaway Jr. would find it tough to carry backcourt shooting and scoring without Schroeder/Bazemore.

So, basically, this series could go in either direction depending on who you place more faith in. It might simply come down to coaching and last five-minute scoring. I suppose we can say the intangibles go in Washington’s direction: homecourt, best player from both teams, Howard’s free throws, great crunch time numbers, and a higher point differential. Atlanta, though, is a team that is actually built for playoff basketball in their defense and rebounding.

It will pretty much come down to how effective defensively Howard and the rest of the front line are versus how efficient Washington’s backcourt is with Mahinmi being gone. Maybe Jason Smith can work some chemistry with the backcourt and draw Howard out the paint. Maybe Howard’s free throws become a problem. Maybe Atlanta’s backcourt is just that bad. Maybe there’s a Godsap sighting.
I will say though… that it doesn’t help that Atlanta’s major weakness (offensive efficiency) plays into Washington’s greatest strength (transition scoring).

It’s all up in the air, folks. Like any other east 4/5 match-up. Flip a coin or something.

Washington wins if: their backcourt is too much, Jason Smith is on fire from outside, their bench wasn’t terribad, pace is fast and they get out and run out of Atlanta’s inefficient offense

Atlanta wins if: defense defense defense, Howard is still a good piece in the playoffs, their backcourt is actually better than they’ve ever been, GodSap, Washington couldn’t break out of the slow pace.

Washington in six

(3) Toronto Raptors versus (6) Milwaukee Bucks
Kyle Lowry, asked about his ankle: "I'm Wolverine, man. You know Wolverine? I'm Wolverine, except for when I die, I'mma just die"

“Dude legit looks like Inspector Gadget” – qule on Giannis




Here we are again, top-seeded Toronto versus a team they are favored against. Here we go again with Jason Kidd coaching a team against Toronto. Here we are again, a large forward/guard type of player likely to individually dominate Toronto.

Nah, I can’t do Toronto like that. It’s been years for them being together. You have to admit, though, Toronto is a strange team to pin down in the playoffs. Considering that they’ve only won series that extend to game 7 and haven’t won a game 1 in this era, it’s probably safe to say this isn’t likely to be a short series.

But we still have to give credit to DeRozan’s growth offensively this season. They still acquired two great pieces in P.J. Tucker and Ibaka. They’re healthy, experienced, and once again have home court advantage. What could possibly go wrong?

A lot could, I guess. Milwaukee has a lot of ways to trap and mess up passing lanes with lengthy perimeter guys (courtesy of Jason Kidd’s style). They have very good individual defenders in Snell, Delly, Middleton, and Brogdon. I understand Toronto has won the majority of the regular season match-ups even dating back to Greek Freak’s rookie year, but they do have a terrible tendency to never be able to completely outplay the opposing team’s backcourt they supposedly are more talented than. See: Washington, Indiana, and Brooklyn.

Kidd typically has Greek Freak at the four, so he’s likely to see more minutes being guarded by Ibaka perhaps? Or will Casey go small just as much with Carroll at four? I’m not entirely sure how all of this plays out, but looking at the three-point percentage/points outside the paint from Giannis and the superior rebounding of Toronto, I don’t see a reason to jump to Milwaukee’s side yet.

Offensively, Milwaukee lacks the firepower to likely keep up with Toronto if they maintain even a portion of their regular offensive efficiency. They’re so dependent on transition, successful spot-up shooting from sketchy spot-up shooters, and Giannis to just do his thing. Toronto to me feels more like a complete team. Toronto is top ten in paint defense, can switch all over the place thanks to finally acquiring versatile forwards, and DeRozan has reached a level where he’s an efficient scorer without shooting threes. At least on paper, Toronto finally looks like a team I can confidently pick to advance.

This series will definitely go to seven though regardless. That’s just how Toronto works. I’ll take them, but I won’t like it.

Toronto wins if: Lowry/DeRozan are unbothered by traps, their role players make shots, Ibaka/Patterson are the superior defensive, quick frontline we thought they were.

Milwaukee wins if: Giannis is hot from deep, Lowry/DeRozan just aren’t making long shots, the length of Milwaukee makes it impossible for Toronto to share the ball. Trying to predict Kidd’s coaching strategy is a laugh.

Toronto in seven.

(1) Boston Celtics versus (8) Chicago Bulls
“[Spears] The Bulls say guard Rajon Rondo has been suspended by the Bulls for one game, tonight versus Portland, for conduct detrimental to the team.” "So Rondo playing basketball” -Anonymous

“Kelly "Maple Dick" "White Michael Jordan" "Literal GOAT" Olynyk with the crisp +29 off the bench.” - -poncho-





May I just start off by saying that Boston is the weakest top seed we’ve seen for some time? I mean, they’re near the bottom of the league in rebounding, their defensive efficiency is outside the top ten, and they’re 5-10 against the 2-5 seeds. Heck, they technically haven’t won a playoff series as a group yet.
I just have a very hard time trusting these guys over, well, any team.

But what if that team is even less consistent? What if that team has statistics that support Wade being out benefited them? What if it still just makes no fucking sense to have Rondo/Butler/Wade all on the floor together?

The season series seems to tell a simple story. Chicago’s second choice points were factors in them winning or losing. Gibson/Lopez are the guilty parties here, but ever since Chicago traded Gibson away, they’ve fallen in offensive rebounding. So, that’s a plus for Boston.
They have more help to surround Isiah than they did last year, or at least, I hope they do. Horford is the only piece they truly added, but perhaps the improved offense of the surrounding cast is good as well. We all know the playoffs tend to be different because you can focus in on team’s tendencies. I worry about Boston being bothered when Isiah is somehow off rhythm. It is simply imperative that Horford, Olynyk, and the backcourt make their spot-ups.

Now, here’s where Boston looks flimsy (outside of their rebounding and overall team defense) … Isiah is 5’9”. At best. Can you say, attack, attack, attack?

In fact, if I’m Chicago, I’m attacking Isiah/Horford every trip down the floor; especially if I’m having Wade at point. Isolate him. Pick him apart with Horford and bank on him not being able to block it or threaten an offensive board if he helps. If Chicago can make Isiah/Horford liabilities in any way, they win, because they depend on both of these guys entirely too much.

Then you have the Wade Playoff Factor… best example you have of this is last year. Wade has this tendency to just mysteriously become amazing from behind the arc at certain times and has made clutch shot after clutch shot. Of course, Boston is no slouch in fourth quarter scoring, but Wade still must be accounted for even at 35. Bradley historically is also his arch-nemesis. Should be interesting.
Problems with Chicago though is that they may not have much talent to offensively stop a guy like Horford on the perimeter. They can throw multiple guys at Isiah and trap him as much as they want, but Horford shoots threes now. You can’t honestly expect guys like Lopez and Felicio to be out there in the perimeter to guard Horford and crash the glass successfully.

Either way, the winner of this series will be decided on the glass and if Isiah’s teammates can contribute or not. I’m really serious in saying that this series will be closer than most people think. That’s weird talking about a 1/8 match-up but that truly is the case with this Boston team.

Boston wins if: they keep up with Chicago on the glass, Isiah isn’t a liability and gets spot-up shooting help, and perimeter defenders in Bradley, Smart, and friends do their job defensively, Horford makes their frontcourt pay in pace-and-space.

Chicago wins if: Isiah is pushed around, Chicago dominates the boards, playoff Wade.

Boston in seven.

(2) Cleveland Cavaliers versus (7) Indiana Pacers
“Keep my kids’ name out of your mouth, keep my family out of your mouth. This is dad to dad. It’s a problem now.”
“Another appearance by the Sheriff” – XZTALVENARNZEGOMSAYT

“PG13 said he was most excited to see Isaiah Thomas during All Star Weekend. PG13 to Boston = confirmed” – I_Enjoy_Taffy




LeBron has never lost in the first round in his entire career, so I won’t spend too much time on this one.
This will be an interesting series if only to view how quickly Cleveland “flips the switch”. Even if they maintain the same 22nd ranking of defensive efficiency, their offense is more than enough to end Indiana. Indiana has serious depth issues to address. Stats show that outside of George and Turner, Indiana tends to struggle to outscore their opponents. They are also almost dead last in playing Morey Ball (scoring in the restricted area or behind the arc). Their dependency on George is clear.

To be honest, the team has actually regressed defensively from last year too. There simply isn’t a single case for Indiana for a potential upset, but hey, George/Stephenson versus LeBron is always entertaining. Some other interesting stats to note is that Indiana is top five in both isolation and transition defense… but how did they regress defensively from last year? Bleh, I’m not wasting my energy to find out on a first-round exit team.

Don’t expect much for this series to be more than a measuring stick on where Cleveland is defensively.

Cleveland wins if: any two combinations of LeBron/Kyrie/Love show up, they score in their isolations, and LeBron assists on threes

Indiana wins if: I get a girlfriend

Cleveland in five

(2) San Antonio Spurs versus (7) Memphis Grizzlies
“This guy was made in a lab by Pop and Tim under the AT&T Center. “ – Orod23 on Kawhi

“After seeing this man's wife I'm not doubting him. Ever. In anything.” – KD_All_Day on coach Fizdale





Man, not this shit again.

News broke out Thursday that Tony Allen will be out indefinitely. Any chance Memphis had going into this series just dropped to 0%.

There’s no doubt this will be an ugly, slow-paced series. Fizdale did a decent job re-inventing Memphis in a way that maintains their defensive strength while implementing slightly more three-point shooting and relegating Randolph to the bench. Both Marc Gasol and Randolph should be fine for their match-ups for the most part. I… don’t really trust Aldridge these days, and we all know Pau Gasol’s defensive history. Still, Memphis struggled post All-Star mightily, and their offense is only ranked below average in efficiency at 17th.

The problem for Memphis comes in when we look at the 2-3 positions. Leonard by far will be the most talented and important player from both teams. Who does Memphis have to slow him down? 40-year-old Vince Carter? James Ennis III? They have no hope in hell. The only backcourt scorer they can rely on is Conley, and once Leonard is on Conley, that’ll shut him down quick. Memphis doesn’t have that same luxury.

Tony Parker’s performance this series could easily make this a 4-0 affair. They honestly don’t really need him, but if his output is anywhere close to Conley’s, they’re finished. They can hide Parker or bench him for Mills if he’s terrible.

There’s simply not much for me to talk about in this series. Most of you probably won’t even read this and move on.

San Antonio wins if: Leonard has two legs, two arms, and can breathe.

Memphis wins if: Trump is impeached in the next few weeks.

San Antonio in four.

(1) Golden State Warriors versus (8) Portland Trailblazers

“Guess what bricks are made of?
Klay.” – SupahBallin

“Zaza Pachulia as a fringe all-star every year is probably my favorite NBA glitch.” – APF29



Bleeeeeeeeh can I skip this one? Please? Uhhh Portland has one of the worst P&R Ball Handler team defense. Golden State is a top ten all-time offensive team for a third year. Golden State wins four out of five of their match-ups. I think.

Golden State simply beats this team at every single relevant metric. You’re probably skipping over this match-up.

Portland has no chance in hell outside of a serious injury to two or three players. Nurkic would have made this interesting… maybe. It’s the only part of Golden State’s defense that’s less than absolutely perfect.

Golden State wins if: they have five players on the court.

Portland wins if: Adam Silver overturns the Chris Paul Lakers trade.

Golden State in four


MVP: Harden
Coach of the Year: D'Antoni
Rookie of the Year: Brogdon
Most Improved: Nikola Jokic
Sixth man of the Year: Eric Gordon
Defensive Player of the Year: Rudy Gobert (Kawhi will prob win it tho but I predict voter fatigue)
Click to expand...

Bruh how long did u take to write all of this
 
Kanburi

Kanburi

Apparently Gobert's injury is just hyperextension and a bone bruise, nothing damaged structurally. Clippers gonna have to blow up the team and start from scratch tbh.
 

DerrickRose

I'd argue Gobert being hurt may have actually helped the Jazz (short-term). It forced them to play small which while they usually aren't used to guys like Diaw/Favors getting big minutes, the Clippers had no idea how to plan against them. Jordan didn't feast as predicted. Also, Ingles did a fantastic job on Redick.

Game 2 should be interesting with or without Gobert.
 
Bruxa Baratuxa

Bruxa Baratuxa

Iso Joe strikes again
And Clippers, please, get the fuck out of Los Angeles, for fucking sake. What a bunch of losers, geez. Please, go to Vegas, go to Reno, go back to San Diego, but leave LA.
 
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