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Official NBA 2011-12 Season Thread
- Thread starter -RatCheesy
- Start date
yep.
Financially, it makes sense to keep Lin. He's a goldmine. But as far as basketball goes, they are still required to operate under salary cap rules; even if the owner is willing to spend on the luxury tax because he has a cash cow wearing #17, as of the new CBA, teams above the luxury tax line have less and less, steadily decreasing abilities and flexibility. They have a smaller MLE to sign players, more restrictions when it comes to trades, and so on. The Knicks will always have fans -- ownership is not short on cash or ticket sales by any means -- but the goal is always to win a championship, and matching Lin with the roster they have and the contracts they are bound to was not the right way to go; for once, the Knicks made a good basketball-related move.
I can't help but think blowing their load on Amare Stoudemire after missing out on LeBron has caused this. Carmelo was all but a lock for them. I think they'll regret that Chandler contract eventually. I'm still not sold on Carmelo as a #1 guy on a championship team, but his contract and Chandler's contract are most justifiable. I think they will regret acquiring Chandler the way they did though; if you remember, they used their amnesty clause on Chauncey Billups to make room to sign him; if they saved that right, they could have waited to use it on Stoudemire (who is not worth the contract BASKETBALL-WISE he has anymore). Just look at this. Already $64M without some of those guys being entered yet. Steve Novak got a crazy deal from them too ($15M over 4 years). Camby is $3M each year for 3 years.
Where are you getting those luxury tax numbers, by the way? They look too low to be based off the current CBA.
Haha that was my rough estimate after calculating Thunder's situation with Harden/Ibaka. If Knicks sign Lin at that contract, they'll be at 47.5M luxury tax in 2015.
First, I agree on what they did with amnestying Billups, they screwed that up knowing that they have bigger contracts which might become toxic at some point and needs to amnestied (which eventually happened to STAT).
But all those flexibilities are gone anyway, with or without Lin. My issue here is taking on Felton and Kidd, I'd rather take risk with Lin than these two. I'm taking Felton on par with Lin in terms of basketball contribution, but who would pay tickets to watch Felton? This is just poor judgement on Knicks FO.
It also doesn't help that the Rockets (who is willing to overpay Lin) has an experience with a Chinese star. Chinese basketball star = million dollars.
I know that this Knicks thing is so complex... They took a lot of risks with Chandler, STAT, Melo. But it's startling that they didn't take this very good risk with Lin.
For Knicks fans, Brooklyn is just nearby.
Are you just completely ignoring how good Dwight is defensively? He is worlds above Bynum on the defensive end and can literally turn a cast of sub-average defenders into a solid defensive team. On a Lakers team that's already pretty good defensively, they would become a nightmare to score against. Again, I don't think this Lakers deal will happen anyway.
@Gabe, The Nets deal is not the same deal it was before, the signing of Humphries for a larger deal allows them to take back more of the Magic's bloated contracts with Howard. I don't see how anyone besides an oblivious Lakers fan could think that taking on one bad contract and giving them Bynum who will bolt anyway is somehow better than 3-4 first round picks, two prospects, and taking back 3 bad contracts. The Nets deal is still by far the most palatable, with the biggest road block being that the Magic will have to wait until January to move Howard. I don't think Orlando has any problem benching Howard in the mean time if he's too big of a babby to play. If they wanted to get rid of him just to get rid of him and be done with it, regardless of how shitty the offer is, they'd have done that by now.
I'm going to assume the following:
- They do not trade, sign, or re-sign anyone except Jeremy Lin.
- They trade all their first round picks away.
These two assumptions bring them to 7 players in 2014/2015, so I'm also going to assume they add the following minimum salary players to fill out the roster:
- one undrafted/2nd round rookie @ $500,000
- three 5 year vets @ $1M each
- two 10+ year vets @ $1.3M each
This brings them to the following roster and salaries:
$23.5M - Anthony
$23.4M - Stoudemire
$14.8M - Lin
$14.6M - Chandler
$4.0M - Novak
$3.0M - Camby
$3.0M - Kidd
$2.7M - Shumpert
$.5M - undrafted/second round rookie
$1M - 5 year vet (x3)
$1.3M - 10+ year vet (x2)
Total: $95.1M
If the luxury tax level remains the same, it will be set at $70.3M.
In the old CBA, they would have to a dollar-for-dollar tax bill of $24.8M on top of the $95.1M for the salaries.
In the new CBA, they pay a steadily increasing rate:
For the first $5M, they pay a tax of $7.5M ($1.50 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (5-10), they pay a tax of $8.75M ($1.75 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (10-15), they pay a tax of $12.5M ($2.50 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (15-20), they pay a tax of $16.25M ($3.25 per $1 over)
Finally, for the last $4.8M, they pay $18M ($3.75 per $1 over)
This comes to a total tax bill of $75.5M
Of course, this also assumes they don't have to pay the repeater tax. Judging from how their salaries are looking for this year and next year (over the luxury tax), they almost a lock to pay the repeater tax. In this case, their tax bill is broken down as follows:
For the first $5M, they pay a tax of $12.5M ($2.50 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (5-10), they pay a tax of $13.75M ($2.75 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (10-15), they pay a tax of $17.5M ($3.50 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (15-20), they pay a tax of $21.25M ($4.25 per $1 over)
Finally, for the last $4.8M, they pay $22.8M ($4.75 per $1 over)
This comes to a total tax bill of $109.05M.
This obviously pales in comparison to the $600M figure you bring up. That was the valuation of the company, correct? I'm no business major, but as far as I can tell, that is not equivalent to the cash in James Dolan's pocket. Feel free to correct me on this part.
Now, the reason I did this, is just to show that's it's not as clearcut on the financial side as it may seem.
And yes I had that much free time.
- They do not trade, sign, or re-sign anyone except Jeremy Lin.
- They trade all their first round picks away.
These two assumptions bring them to 7 players in 2014/2015, so I'm also going to assume they add the following minimum salary players to fill out the roster:
- one undrafted/2nd round rookie @ $500,000
- three 5 year vets @ $1M each
- two 10+ year vets @ $1.3M each
This brings them to the following roster and salaries:
$23.5M - Anthony
$23.4M - Stoudemire
$14.8M - Lin
$14.6M - Chandler
$4.0M - Novak
$3.0M - Camby
$3.0M - Kidd
$2.7M - Shumpert
$.5M - undrafted/second round rookie
$1M - 5 year vet (x3)
$1.3M - 10+ year vet (x2)
Total: $95.1M
If the luxury tax level remains the same, it will be set at $70.3M.
In the old CBA, they would have to a dollar-for-dollar tax bill of $24.8M on top of the $95.1M for the salaries.
In the new CBA, they pay a steadily increasing rate:
For the first $5M, they pay a tax of $7.5M ($1.50 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (5-10), they pay a tax of $8.75M ($1.75 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (10-15), they pay a tax of $12.5M ($2.50 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (15-20), they pay a tax of $16.25M ($3.25 per $1 over)
Finally, for the last $4.8M, they pay $18M ($3.75 per $1 over)
This comes to a total tax bill of $75.5M
Of course, this also assumes they don't have to pay the repeater tax. Judging from how their salaries are looking for this year and next year (over the luxury tax), they almost a lock to pay the repeater tax. In this case, their tax bill is broken down as follows:
For the first $5M, they pay a tax of $12.5M ($2.50 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (5-10), they pay a tax of $13.75M ($2.75 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (10-15), they pay a tax of $17.5M ($3.50 per $1 over)
For the next $5M (15-20), they pay a tax of $21.25M ($4.25 per $1 over)
Finally, for the last $4.8M, they pay $22.8M ($4.75 per $1 over)
This comes to a total tax bill of $109.05M.
This obviously pales in comparison to the $600M figure you bring up. That was the valuation of the company, correct? I'm no business major, but as far as I can tell, that is not equivalent to the cash in James Dolan's pocket. Feel free to correct me on this part.
Now, the reason I did this, is just to show that's it's not as clearcut on the financial side as it may seem.
And yes I had that much free time.
I'm betting he becomes a Laker before a Net. Orlando won't want to start with him, they've gone through too much shit. Dwight's over it, they're over it, the entire fucking NBA is over it. He's going to get traded, and won't be traded in January to the Nets. He can't sign with the Nets either because they picked up Joe Johnson's shit contract.
LA seems more likely. Brooklyn is now chockful of the same type of extravagant contracts that Orlando wants to get rid of. $12M for Kris Humphries? Brook Lopez as a max player? If Orlando trades Dwight to Brooklyn, they will be in the same position they are now; bad contracts with no way to improve.
Humphries wouldn't even be going to the Magic, he'd be going to a third team. But by trading his 12 mil they can take back a lot more (it's also only a 2 year contract). The only contract that the Magic would be "saddled with" would be Lopez...
Brook Lopez is a star when healthy and in a world where Deandre Jordan, Asik, and pretty much any other moderately skilled 7 footer has a salary in the neighborhood of 10 million +, Lopez' contract is not that bad.
And before "he'll never be healthy" jokes, all of his missed time has been a result of unrelated freak accidents or illnesses.
if 17.4/7.5 career numbers for a center who doesn't play defense == star, then
The three superstar model of building a team involves putting three legitimate stars together on the same team, not putting three maxed out players on the same team and calling them superstars.
If I'm Orlando, I roll with Houston's offer.
Career averages for a player that has had two healthy seasons (one of which was his rookie season) don't seem like an accurate way to measure his potential...
2010/2011 he had mono and lost thirty pounds because of it, but played through the season anyway. He's basically a 20/8 guy at 50% shooting that also shoots free throws well, and has played two seasons worth of healthy games. There's no reason not to think he'll improve on those numbers and be considerably better than any of the other centers with similar contracts. If 3 teams are willing to give Roy Hibbert a contract almost identical to Lopez', I don't see how it could be argued this his contract is horrible.
Roy Hibbert is a slightly better rebounder, a considerably worse offensive player, and a much better defender. He is not worth considerably more than Brook Lopez. Deandre Jordan and Omer Asik's contracts both make Lopez' look even better. He is at least as good as anyone in that group and if the Magic don't want his contract I'm sure they would have no problem at all moving it to one of the other 3 or 4 GMs that do.
Lopez hasn't been healthy in two years. Not to mention the Pacers are an extremely deep team and the Nets were a pile of garbage.
Brook Lopez has star potential without a doubt guys. He could be a top 5 center in the NBA next year easily. I mean, frankly, it's basically:
1. Howard
2. Bynum
3. Chandler
4. Hibbert
5. Noah
6. Horford
7. Perkins
8. Lopez
imo. And Lopez can improve. After that everyone is either disguised shit (Bogut, Bargnani) or just plain shit (Chris Kaman etc). Or a rookie who may or may not be totally epic (Anthony Davis). Or someone that's supposed to be a power forward (Duncan, Garnett)
1. Howard
2. Bynum
3. Chandler
4. Hibbert
5. Noah
6. Horford
7. Perkins
8. Lopez
imo. And Lopez can improve. After that everyone is either disguised shit (Bogut, Bargnani) or just plain shit (Chris Kaman etc). Or a rookie who may or may not be totally epic (Anthony Davis). Or someone that's supposed to be a power forward (Duncan, Garnett)
And Brook Lopez is a Net. BOOOOM. :jump:
A funny thought occurred to me while watching the Bobcats play in the summer league at Applebees last night...why isn't MJ making the whole team play in the summer league? As craptacular as they have been over the last few years, they could use some more even competition XD
On a more serious note, looks like Grant Hill is going to the Clippers...seriously, what's with all the former Suns hitting up LA and Cali for? Lakers, Clippers, who's next? Jared Dudley or Marcin Gortat to the GS Warriors? Yeesh...
On a more serious note, looks like Grant Hill is going to the Clippers...seriously, what's with all the former Suns hitting up LA and Cali for? Lakers, Clippers, who's next? Jared Dudley or Marcin Gortat to the GS Warriors? Yeesh...
darkie, it's a good thing you got time. I think I'll be sick tomorrow lol. We'll have time...
Brook paid at max is not a testament to any of his skill or rank. It's just because he's an above average center, and from this point on, we'll see more of these guys. (I believe his brother is also FA, I won't be surprised a team giving 7M per to him despite being shit)
Brook paid at max is not a testament to any of his skill or rank. It's just because he's an above average center, and from this point on, we'll see more of these guys. (I believe his brother is also FA, I won't be surprised a team giving 7M per to him despite being shit)
