Gen 1 OU for a reason.

That's not the same comparison. Rhydon/Golem pose as threats to everything. Chansey is hardly a threat.

Alakazam dominates Chansey and forces a switch which sets up opportunities to do real damage to the opposition. If operating under the assumption that every team has Chansey on it, Alakazam is better than Starmie (not even close, imo). If your only special wall willing to take par is Chansey it's going to put added pressure on your physicals to get in there in a hurry and do some haxing, or put pressure on one of your exploders to explode. Chansey + Zam > Chansey + Starmie.

Baiting out Chansey using Starmie is a nice saving grace, but remember, Zam is probably coming in because he can switch into Starmie too. You are far from guaranteed to be right on this prediction. Meanwhile, if my chansey ever actually does switch in on your starmie, I'd bet the farm that your own Chansey is coming in next turn, and I could set up a physical accordingly.

I also want to touch on elemental Zam, even tho its silly since this is typically not allowed anyway. I think its extremely shortsighted to think Zams would never use the elemental punches if they were allowed. I think of Gengar (particularly GSC gengar) in this case, where you really don't know what he could have and would be forced to respect it until you found out for sure that your star wasn't about to get tpunched or your eggy ice punched. Ice punch particularly, would give Kazam a freeze threat (great for a staller), so I could see a psy/elemental/twave/recover Kazam being very common.

This is a great thread. With load of good [and bad] discussion.

Alakazam/Chansey are probably paralyzed at any stage of the battle (you argue that people try to "freeze" chansey, but that's rarely the case; that speed loss vs rhydons/golems and that 1/4 turn loss is far more reliable and useful imo, not to mention chansey won't see much playtime with it having to dodge freeze all the time). If you're assuming you can predict against an opponent's chansey switch, then you should be able to assume your opponent can predict on your zam/chansey switch and "set up a physical accordingly".

And no, you can't and shouldn't "bet the farm" in any equally skilled high-level match. At that point, prediction no longer exists. It becomes "guessing". Anything can happen. If you think prediction continues to exist, then you've never reached said level of play.

So please don't necro if you have nothing new to say (which you don't).

EDIT: Since it's pretty clear you haven't read the thread:

You guys are really overrating Alakazam's ability to force Chansey to switch. I have no doubt, it can and will happen several times through a course of a match. But to truly capitalize on it (so that it's not merely an event, but an advantageous event), several things have to go your way:

1. Predict WHEN Chansey will switch, since she can switch anywhere from -1 down to -4 spc falls.
2. Predict "properly" what the switch is. You don't want to end up using Psychic on Egg/Slowbro/Starmie/Zam/Jynx. Likewise, you don't want to end up paralyzing something that's asleep/already paralyzed/Golem or Rhydon.
3. Dodge the FP.

Furthermore, at this stage, SHOULD you get unlucky (e.g. you get the first two levels of prediction correctly and try to psychic a predicted Snorlax switch, only to get FPd), then you're left with a losing proposition. A pretty horrible one. And should you only predict partially right (e.g. you get the first level of prediction correctly, guessing the Chansey switch, but end up using Psychic on Egg), then you're faced with another prediction that ends up being a draw situation at best. Do you guess a switch back to Chansey, and you can capitalize with a physical switch, or do you guess a neutral damaging move, in which case leaving zam in would be the right choice?

EDIT2: There wouldn't be a thread without me. Obnoxious and true. And it hurts, doesn't it?

Starmie baits in Zam, who's also weak to physicals, what's new about it?

Elemental zam has been talked about. Albeit not on an elemental punches level, but rather an "improved" boltbeam level. It's all hypothetical anyway, since neither would exist in battle.

I am king of the world. And no one cares who the OP is, since it has nothing to do with him anymore. And no #3 as well, whatever it may be. I don't dismiss people on an account that they disagree, I dismiss people for close-minded thinking, "the way it always has been" arguments. "Alakazam forces Chansey to switch, and capitalizes with a damaging attack or a crippling paralysis to the incoming pokemon" falls under this category. The odds of everything going your way is slim to none, Alakazam at heart is nothing more than a special wall, an inferior one to Chansey.

No, you're wrong! -_-

It's a pretty decent thread if you skip over your obnoxious posts. First paragraph I stated my position. 2nd paragraph I responded to the "starmie baits chansey" argument which was new, and then I commented on elemental Alakazam which was new.

Last I checked you weren't the king of the world, nor even the originator of this thread. So how about you stop dismissing people for disagreeing and at least be civil in your (losing) arguments.

Combined.

Let's keep the personal attacks out of this, focus on the issues.

This isn't the argument I'm making, and hasn't been for a while now. Where I initially thought I could go the full 9 yards with eliminating zam's usefulness, I realize I had to settle for 8. Chansey completely outclasses zam from a defensive stance, and Starmie outclasses zam from an offensive point of view. That's my point. An argument can be made for players that feel they need two special walls, but in this case, zam shouldn't be considered without already having chansey. And there's not exactly anything close to replacing a kinesis zam. And because most of the arguments I've gotten defending zam is from a defensive stance, there isn't too much about starmie. Their only similarities are that they both "force in" chansey with some regularity (this is where we stand at the end of the thread), however, starmie is much better at it. Starmie forces in only Chansey (or a defensive zam, aka one that's willing to be paralyzed), to which physical attackers manhandle just fine. Alakazam also lures in Exeggutor, Chansey, Slowbro, Zam, etc, stuff that physical attackers aren't so keen on seeing. And in terms of damage:

Exeggutor: Goes to Starmie. 40% odds of 2HKO vs 4HKO using ST. But wait, can't Giga Drain hit Starmie and actually BEAT it in return? Sure, but since you're assuming Alakazam/starmie are being used as sweepers, you don't do 1 for 1 trades. In a dumbed down scenario, Exeggutor can always explode on either, or paralyze either and completely shut down their ability to sweep. The difference is Exeggutor is able to switch in once on Starmie, and 3 times against zam (with ST). The thresholds are 84% vs 30%. And what about Double-Edge Exeggutor?

Persian: Depends on moveset. BoltBeam Starmie loses to Zam. HP Starmie evens the odds, even besting zam. Zam is faster 100% of the time, whereas Starmie has to deal with the 50/50. However, Starmie surivives a Slash on the switch, and a following Hyper Beam. Furthermore, Persian has a relatively good chance to OHKO Zam (especially if it's incurred ANY damage). And it's a guaranteed OHKO on a CH vs a 25% chance to OHKO Starmie. Of course, 80% acc vs 99.6% to even things out.

Zapdos: Same argument as Egg goes to Starmie.

Slowbro: Starmie.

Jynx: Starmie with HP. Zam without.

Golem: Starmie.

Rhydon: Starmie.

Starmie: Starmie, using the same argument as Egg.

Gengar: Zam.

Lapras: Zam.

Tauros: Depends on moveset. BoltBeam Starmie loses to Zam. HP Starmie evens the odds, even besting zam (50% chance to OHKO on CH vs 5% chance with Zam). Psychic is a potential 3HKO with no CHes, whereas HP is guaranteed OHKO. And Tauros has a guranteed OHKO on zam if it's incurred any previous damage. Of course, 80% acc vs 99.6% to even things out.

Snorlax: Depends on moveset. BoltBeam Starmie loses to Zam. HP Starmie evens the odds. HB is guaranteed OHKO on Zam period. With 1 CH, Zam has ~50% odds of 2HKO. With 1 CH, Starmie guaranteed 2HKO. Of course, 80% acc vs 99.6% to even things out.

Chansey: Now this is where the debates overlap and things get confusing as all 3 pokemon in question are mentioned, and that's where you mistake my argument. Starmie pretty much has a 0% chance to KO Chansey. But what about Zam? Ideally, every single time. Chansey, even with ST, doesn't come close to Zam in 1v1. But realistically? Never. Factoring the 5 other pokemon on Chansey's team, this should never happen (unless the battle's been lost already). Between everything that can take a psychic, the grounds, the already paralyzed pokemon, the sleeper, etc etc, there are so many ways to prevent zam from ever killing Chansey. And that's assuming Zam is willing to take paralysis in the process.

But using the same argument as egg, neither. Paralysis is inevitable attacking Chansey.

Saying you should assume your opponent can predict if you can predict is just a mirror of my response to "starmie baits chansey out". However, there is a difference here because not all predictions or "guesses", however you want to call them, are equal. If chansey is in against starmie, what is your risk reward for starmie predicting an ice beam and staying in to do 12% damage? Very low. Maybe you do make a gamebreaking move if you are crazy enough to twave/surf and catch lax/golem coming in, but it's far from guaranteed and you're also risking having your starmie crippled. Maybe one game you try that and it works, but that's not a good long term strategy. Meanwhile Alakazam is the one in the driver's seat against chansey. He's actively creating low-risk opportunities for himself instead of being completely walled out.

Plus, who is starmie in against where chansey is being baited? Eggy? If the situation is right in the battle, trading a stun spore for a blizz could be worth it. A paralyzed starmie is now an underdog to tauros or lax, while also having to sweat it out against gengar and mega drain eggy. All this, and STILL being walled out by zam and chansey.

There's no doubt that Alakazam is not broken. You really focus on the fact that Alakazam is not a shoe-in to cripple entire teams (though you're exaggerating chansey's ability to take up to 4(!) special falls without needing to switch. But in comparison to Starmie, how is all the above not better than being completely useless in the early and mid-game, while only being an above-average sweeper at the end of the day? Starmie is walled by chansey and semi-walled by alakazam. You're asking your physicals to do a lot of maneuvering in order to even get starmie going. Plus, IF Alakazam fails to successfully catch somebody on a switch, he can always fall back and stall, which is STILL better than being walled out, like starmie is.

This is my last post in this thread. It's RBY theorymon afterall, of which I haven't delved into... ever. I'm just translating GSC theorymon to RBY, and doing a damn good job of it apparently.

Starmie is worthless without Chansey dead. So I'm ignoring any Starmie attacking Chansey arguments because those are stupid and extremely high-risk low-reward (most of your first paragraph). Psychic has 16 PP, and this ends up being a huge factor in many RBY games. The slower ones anyway. There's low-risk rewards Alakazam can create, but those are more limited than you think. He has to make every "predicted switch" count. Just for the sake of argument, on average, a -3 Chansey would take 10 Psychics. Once you reach this point, using Psychic no longer becomes a "low risk" move. An Alakazam short on Psychics becomes a SEVERE crutch, giving free switches to Snorlax, Tauros, Persian, Rhydon, Golem, etc.

Blizzard should be hitting Egg on the switch. Just like S-toss. We're assuming both the Starmie user and the Alakazam user is able to do that. The difference here is: Alakazam has to predict correctly 3 times, whereas the Starmie user only has to predict correctly once.

-4 implies staying in on -3, which I wouldn't be hesitant to do. A CH would do less at this point if I'm not mistaken? And I guess even at -4, there are mind games to be played, since the zam user is probably running dangerously low on Psychics at this point. The surer you are of a switch against someone skilled, the less likely it seems to happen. It's not exactly out of the norm.

There's really only two parts to my Starmie argument. Alakazam has intangible benefits over it, I'm sure, and it's ends up being really subjective as to which is more important (hence many people losing interest in arguing).

1. Starmie is absolutely worthless with Chansey still alive.
2. Starmie becomes the better sweeper once Chansey IS dead.

However, #1 can be taken advantage of, hence the "bait Chansey" argument, at which Starmie is better than Zam at.

And #2 is covered nicely in my last post I think.

I don't know what game you're playing where Eggy is switching into a starmie blizzard. So this would be a situation where for whatever reason they opt not to use chansey or kazam to switch into starmie and also a situation where tbolt is expected so this is starmie vs starmie/lapras we're talking about where you are blizzarding hoping for eggy (no one is going to switch eggy into par, so if twave is expected forget it) when it very well could be chansey and if you're wrong you either just ate a bolt/par from starmie/lapras or now you have starmie in against chansey setting your own chansey up to switch in and be met by a physical attacker.

It's not the same as kazam stoss at all because eggy actually would feasibly switch into kazam to help chansey get her special back up.

How in the world is starmie better than zam at baiting chansey? Because starmie sucks and chansey auto-defeats it? Thats not a great point for starmie. Starmie also doesn't bait chansey better because even though chansey shuts down starmie, starmie's not overly threatening to just about anything besides rocks. Depending on the circumstances, Zam can stay in/switch in, snorlax could fight, tauros could fight, gengar could fight, etc. Kazam actually does bait chansey because Kazam will paralyze or kill anything else.

The ultimate problem with starmie is that she can't have 5 moves. She needs par and STAB to beat Tauros and have a chance against lax. She needs blizz for eggy. She needs bolt for starmie/lapras. She obviously needs recover. Besides the whole chansey walling everything aspect, there will be some hole in starmie's moveset that can be exploited once discovered.

holy shit it's Nitro (Oh hey, sucks your usual name got taken by some douche who's never posted and used all lowercase.)

He's already largely got it covered but I will blurb one little thing because I already typed it up. It's basically a 50/50 split down OU of which pokémon are hit harder by Starmie or Alakazam. However, Alakazam hits harder against the most relevant of targets, such as Tauros and Chansey, and a couple of Starmie's "wins" kinda overlap with one another. (i.e. Nobody uses Golem and Rhydon together, or Starmie and Lapras.) That's not to mention that Alakazam is also defensively superior against more pokémon than Starmie... So I guess 'Zam is just plain better? *shrug*

I think you get it wrong. No one will switch Exeggy into Starmie. They'll switch Chansey. Exeggy can switch into Zam. That's the argument, and this is why Starmie is better at baiting Chansey.

Yep, but again, that's not the whole argument. Everyone knows Alakazam is better at spreading PAR. So why are you using Starmie for that role? The argument is: Starmie is better than Zam offensively. That means, Starmie as a late-game (Chansey-died-game tbh) Special Sweeper (HP, Blizz, T-bolt, Recover). Starmie is better at that role. If you agree here, there's no necessity of a debate anymore.

Maybe. But Starmie hits hard on MORE things.

Haha sup E. Glad to see there at least a couple of familiar faces still around (Hipmonlee, as well). I actually just stumbled on smogon recently out of nowhere (can't believe its been going since 04 and I never knew about it). I have no desire to learn the new games but I've been playing some RBY for god knows what reason. It's still fun. :)

Cool, time to explain some elementary statistics to some very egotistical minds. Lucky for us, we have nice values to work with. Starmie hits Tauros for between 163 ~ 192, with an average of 177.5, which is 50.3%. Round down to 50% (which is AGAINST starmie btw) for the sake of insanity. 50% is an awesome number. Now to solve using the simplest method (aka the longest) such that even the most elementary minds could understand.

Odds of Starmie KOing on turn 1: .225 * .8 * .5 = 9%
- high roll CH hit only

Odds of Starmie KOing on turn 2: .8 * .775 * .8 + .8 * .225 * .5 * .8 + .2 * .225 * .8 * .5 = 58.6%
- First hit regular non-CH, second hit anything; first hit low roll CH, second hit anything; first hit miss, second hit high roll CH

Odds of Starmie KOing on turn 3: 2 * (.8 * .775 * .2 * .8) + 2 * (.8 * .225 * .5 * .2 * .8) + .2 * .2 * .8 * .225 = 23.44%
- First hit regular <-> second hit miss, third hit anything; first hit low-mid roll CH <-> second hit miss, third hit anything; first two hits miss, third hit high CH

Odds of Starmie KOing by turn 3: 9 + 58.6 + 23.44 = 91.04% (aka before a for sure death)

To clarify, this means there's a ~9% chance of either missing 3 (0.8%) in a row, or missing 2 and the one hit isn't a CH. Let's face it, once it reaches this Stage, Starmie is probably dead.

For all intents and purposes, there's a 8.9% chance to KO by turn 4 (it diminshes to ridculously insignificant values after it anyway).

Now this doesn't really mean anything, let's take a look at the weighed number of hits it'll take to down Tauros, or expectation.

E[X]: 1*(.09) + 2*(.586) + 3*(.2344) + 4*(.089) = 2.32HKO

Alakazam hits Tauros for 151 ~ 178, which means only about a 9.5% chance to deal "significant" damage. Let's round it up to 10% (in Alakazam's favor btw). Unlike with starmie, where the average is 50%, meaning if we consider an even number of attacks, on average, things balance out to 50%, meaning they cancel out. However, we still calculate low/high rolls for CHs, because it results in an odd number of attack. With Alakazam, things get a little bit more confusing, as we have to differentiate each attack into low or high roll values. That leaves us with 4 kinds of attacks we have to consider, low roll/high roll CH/non CH.

Odds of Alakazam KOing on turn 1: .235 * .1 = 2.35%
- high roll CH only

Odds of Alakazam KOing on turn 2: .9 * .235 + .235 + .1 * .1 = 45.65%
- First hit low roll CH, second hit anything; first hit regular anything, second hit CH anything; first hit high roll regular, second hit high roll regular

Odds of Zam KOing before a for sure death: 2.35 + 45.65 = 48%

Alakazam would be dead here. But let's continue, for fun:

Odds of Alakazam KOing on turn 3: 100 - 45.65 - 2.35 = 52%
- Whatever's left

E[X]: 1*(.0235) + 2*(.4565) + 3*(.52) = 2.5HKO

On the other side of the boat, let's look at some more facts:

Both outspeed Tauros

Average 51% against Zam with Body Slam
Average 35% against Starmie with Body Slam

Average 89% against Zam with HB
Average 61% against Starmie with HB

There are no attacks in OU (or BL for that matter) that averages less than 11% to Alakazam (Slowbro's Psychic, Persian's Bubblebeam).

Actually, that's a lie, HB does 279.5 on average, and BB does 32.5, for a total of 312, just shy of Zam's 313.

So I guess Zam is better against Tauros. Y'know, because of opinions and stuff like that or something. Yeah, it's not.

I know HP was never popular in RBY's prime, or GSC's for that matter, perhaps it's time to get out of that shell?

No one KOs Chansey with zam unless the game's already over. 10 psychics for -3 fall? nothx

I'm not that biased. Lapras goes to Zam, unless it uses Body Slam or something.

Note: Any doubts about my numbers (because I have them, but I know they're close if there are errors), here are some guesstimates

Starmie odds of landing 2 consecutive HP: 64%

64 - 9 = 55 which is roughly equal to 58.6, but less than because of CH possibilities

Odds of Alakazam CHing on at least one turn by turn 2: 2 * .235 = 47%

47 - 2.35 = 44.65 which is roughly equal to 45.65, but less than because of CH possibilities

I wouldn't say "it's time to get out of that shell." Sure, using Hydro Pump makes Starmie a smidgin better against Tauros than Alakazam is. It also fails to kill Golem/Rhydon 20% of the time and has a paltry 8 PP. In all honesty, using it over Surf would be silly. The only point of bringing it up is to make the silly argument that Starmie is better against Tauros. If Starmie is better than Tauros, which is arguable overall and really quite situation-dependent, it's because Starmie can't be OHKOed by a crit Body Slam and survives Body Slam + Hyper Beam on average from full health. Even then, you still need Surf or you can't deal shit for damage to it. ;[

I didn't want to have to do it, because it's not really much discussion to be had from it, but...

Alakazam: 'Zam #2 wins with Seismic Toss. Starmie's Special is so much lower than Alakazam's, Surf deals less on average. Hydro Pump deals more but good luck killing 'Zam before you run out of PP, it's a 3HKO with 80% accuracy against an opponent who's faster and has Recover.

Chansey: 'Zam.

Eggy: Starmie if it has Blizzard, 'Zam if Starmie has a Water move. Starmie also gets raped by Mega Drain, if Eggy has that.

Gengar: Zam, period.

Golem: Starmie, period. Alakazam still 2HKOs on average, though, so compared to Blizzard Starmie the real notable is that Starmie is not OHKOed by a crit Earthquake.

Jynx: Zam if Blizzard, Starmie if Water move. Defensively, the fact Starmie resists Jynx's STAB is virtually irrelevant, since even 'Zam is barely 3HKOed on average by Jynx's Blizzard.

Lapras: Starmie. Starmie is also equally vulnerable in return, however, and is not a good choice to fight 1-on-1 due to Lapras' advantage in raw bulk.

Persian: Alakazam by a mile, bonus points for not having to speed tie it.

Rhydon: Starmie, with a more notable advantage in that Alakazam falls just short of the average 2HKO here.

Slowbro: Starmie's definitive use.

Snorlax: 'Zam.

Starmie: Same as Lapras, Starmie deals more damage but it equally vulnerable in return. Starmie wars are almost as dumb as Chansey wars.

Tauros: 'Zam for the most part, though Starmie is at a slight advantage with Hydro Pump only... but it's not that much better.

Zapdos: Starmie if Blizzard, 'Zam if Water move. Alakazam also doesn't get blasted for 80% by its Tbolt.

That's the 14 pokémon on the OU list. Alakazam is flat-out stronger against five of them regardless of Starmie's choice of attacks. (Fellow 'Zam, Chansey, Persian, Gengar, Snorlax.) It's better against an additional two regardless of whether Starmie carries Blizzard (Jynx and Tauros) or carries a Water move (Eggy and Zapdos). Hydro Pump is required for Tauros "victory" but is unreliable for other purposes (e.g. killing Golem/Rhydon) and has low PP. Mega Drain Eggy also doesn't give a shit about Starmie even with Blizzard but I digress.

Either way, Alakazam is better against exactly half of the list. That's not factoring in the redundancies (Golem/Rhydon, Starmie/Lapras) on Starmie's "victory" list and that 'Zam is also better defensively against more pokémon.

I'm not in the mood to type anything remotely close to my last post.

But to clarify:

Snorlax: Probably not zam.

Zam vs snorlax: 29-35%
Starmie vs snorlax: 32-38%

Zam falls short of 3HKO on average (and short of 2HKO with a CH), starmie guarantees 3HKO (and 2HKO with CH). Accuracy balance this part out I think.

Snorlax HB vs zam: 87-100%
Snorlax HB vs Starmie: 60-70%

Snorlax OHKO's zam. This is a huge factor.

Snorlax BS vs zam: 50-59%
Snoralx BS vs starmie: 34-40%

I don't know too much what this means, but it's here.

Persian: Not necessarily zam, but probably zam.

Zam vs Persian: 46-54%
Starmie vs persian: 51-60%

Starmie has guaranteed OHKO with CH. Zam has a 50/50 shot.

Persian HB vs zam: 66-77%
Persian HB vs starmie: 45-53%

Persian has guaranteed OHKO with CH vs zam, and on average, CH falls short of OHKO to starmie.

Yeah, I'm not doing what I did last post. Take this anyway you want to. I'm not changing any of your minds anyway.

But that does narrow zam's list down to just Gengar/Zam/Chansey, where zam has the clear advantage (not so much zam, since it'd stalemate against Starmie). But zam isn't koing chansey/zam anytime soon, so realistically, only Gengar? There are a few ties though. And truth be told, I'd give zam the edge vs lapras.