You have to have the perspective of "how much better would this team be if they had an average player instead of this one". If the Packers had an average qb, say, jay cutler or something, how good would they be?
There's tons of advanced football stats, but unlike baseball there isn't (and can't be) a unified "Expected Points Added" statistic - it's a team sport, after all. still, that doesn't stop people from trying.
Advanced Football Analytics has an EPA statistic, and it's easy to see that
good quarterbacks add a LOT of points. Win Probability Added is probably a better stat for comparing "value" as it takes the individual results of every play, so let's use that instead.
If you were going to take Aaron Rodgers' win probability added and make it a unit (1 AR = 5.16 WPA), here's how some of the top QBs this year have stacked up:
Rodgers = 1 AR (obviously)
Romo = 0.810 AR
Roethlisberger = 0.785 AR
Manning = 0.775 AR
#5 Stafford = 0.694 AR
So, effectively, the next best QBs were about 80% as good as Aaron Rodgers this year.
Comparing them to the "average" QB is always questionable for a couple reasons. Even though there's 32 QBs in the NFL, the bottom third tend to cycle constantly, meaning there's only about 20 guys that are constantly starting unless they're injured. This year, that list includes 16 every-game-starters (Oakland's Carr is the only debatable one, I guess), plus Romo/Newton/A. Smith/Bridgewater who probably should have started all 16 games. You could include Sanchez, Orton, Palmer, or Fitzpatrick if you want to I guess, so the number's somewhere around 20-24 consistent guys, so it's fair to say the "average consistent QB" should be around #12.
A lot of people seem to think (for whatever reason) that Andy Dalton is the poster child for average QB play in the NFL. I've always been of the opinion that if you're outside the top 12, you're average. So let's take a look at Dalton and #13, who this year was *gulp* Joe Flacco.
#13 Flacco = 0.472 AR
#16 Dalton = 0.368 AR
Let's do something similar with JJ Watt.
Don't even look at these stats comparing him to other Defensive Ends unless you want to feel embarrassed for everyone else at the position.
Let's take Watt's WPA (1 JJwatt = 3.21 WPA) and compare it to some other guys. Forget the "average" defensive end, let's just look at the difference between JJ and the rest of the top 5 Defensive Ends.
I'm sorry for the pun said:
Watt = 1 JJwatt
Jason-Pierre Paul = 0.561 JJwatts
Everson Griffen = 0.461 JJwatts
Carlos Dunlap = 0.417 JJwatts
#5 Cameron Wake = 0.414 JJwatts
Comparing JJ Watt's season to the #3 Defensive End is literally almost equivalent to comparing Aaron Rodger's season to Joe Flacco's (regular season, because regardless of your feelings about the guy he's playing pretty damn well in the postseason!) I really don't think anything else needs to be said, if anyone is unconvinced with something as simple as this then they are either in the "I don't believe in advanced statistics" camp or they are in the "Quarterbacks should be MVP every year" camp.
