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"The Win Formula" -- Lights, Camera, Action!

Discussion in 'Smogon's Greatest Hits' started by DougJustDoug, Mar 7, 2009.

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  1. Jumpman16

    Jumpman16 np: Michael Jackson - "Mon in the Mirror" (DW mix)
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    you know what i just realized

    pranking the entire community except those on the inside into thinking some of its most esteemed members have gone crazy, and revealing the cause of such outrageous a few weeks before april fools day is exactly what AIG is doing

    fuck you aig for stealing our thunder (i hope)
  2. Doomsday

    Doomsday
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    what is AIG
  3. Caelum

    Caelum qibz official stalker
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    Are you serious or trolling? I can't tell. I'm too slow =(


    Edit for Doug: Doug, Lemmiwinks brought up the idea of "abusing" the formula with the knowledge of it. To me, this seems like the perfect jumping point to introduce the "hidden variable that is 100% objective, but to not compromise it must be hidden from the community" heh.

    I can quote Lemmiwinks on this
    and respond with

    "You are absolutely correct, X-Act and I had not considered this so we were a bit taken a back when we first saw this. However, we quickly got down to work and development a new variable "i". "i" itself is not a variable, but is in-fact a representation of an entirely separate formula. However, in order to assure that this formula for i is not abused, the actual details of i will need to be kept secret. However, we can assure you that the formula is 100% objective and mathematical sound and will resolve any concerns that you outlined in abusing the formula in its current state. We have currently run test of "i" in situations you describe and it accounts for these situations you listed perfectly; however, we again can't release the explicit details of it in order to not compromise its integrity."
  4. reachzero

    reachzero the pastor of disaster
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    haha When I first read the post, I thought he was referring to some user, the way we talk about CIM or MTI. Then I realized he was actually talking about real life current events....
  5. Caelum

    Caelum qibz official stalker
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    Just thought I would point out that there are a few statisticians from Cambridge that our actually working out a legit rating system that attempts to modify ratings based on the fact whether or not it's probable the outcome was a result purely from skill. It doesn't effect the actual win / loss, but the degree to which the rating is effective. It uses a bayesian framework in conjunction with message passing (well, technically methods from process calculi but you get the point) if anyone cares.

    Food for thought that maybe we aren't completely crazy!
  6. DM

    DM Ce soir, on va danser.
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    rofl
  7. DougJustDoug

    DougJustDoug Knows the great enthusiasms
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    Caelum, I like your suggestion for introducing the concept of a hidden component "i" in the formula. Lemmiwinks did give a great lead-in for it. Wait until after we get Act 2 started, before posting your response. Perhaps you can post something like "This is an interesting point. X-Act and I are working on possible solutions. We will post more later after we flesh it out further." Then later, after Act 2 is in full-swing, you can drop your bomb about "the hidden variable". The hidden variable is going to be VERY controversial, so we need to hold off on it a bit longer.

    To everyone - I really need some logs exhibiting massive hax.

    I don't care if the logs are completely fabricated. But, they need to be made by someone with good knowledge of solid battle strategy. They have to appear to experienced readers to be a case of a good player getting narrowly beaten by an inferior player because of extreme swings of luck. I cannot produce such logs on my own -- not convincing logs, anyway. Will anyone help, please?

    EDIT: Lorak's Acupressure Dodrio log is certainly a haxxy battle, and I appreciate that he posted it. But it's UU and it focuses on Acupressure. I don't think normal battlers can "identify" with the situation in that log. I'm really hoping to get some logs that will "hit home" with many good OU battlers.
  8. Articanus

    Articanus

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    read

    Code:
    Rules: Ladder Match, Sleep Clause, Freeze Clause, OHKO Clause, Evasion Clause, Species Clause, Strict Damage Clause
    Articanus sent out Dusknoir (lvl 100 Dusknoir ?).
    6A9 Ace_Matador sent out Staraptor (lvl 100 Staraptor ?).
    Staraptor's intimidate cut Dusknoir's attack!
    Dusknoir is exerting its pressure!
    6A9 Ace_Matador: GL!
    Staraptor used U-turn.
    It's not very effective...
    Dusknoir lost 9% of its health.
    Articanus: you too
    6A9 Ace_Matador switched in Celebi (lvl 100 Celebi).
    Dusknoir used Gravity.
    Gravity intensified!
    ---
    Celebi used Calm Mind.
    Celebi's special attack was raised.
    Celebi's special defence was raised.
    Dusknoir used Memento.
    Celebi's attack was harshly lowered.
    Celebi's special attack was harshly lowered.
    Articanus's Dusknoir fainted.
    ---
    6A9 Ace_Matador: 0_0
    Articanus switched in Garchomp (lvl 100 Garchomp ?).
    6A9 Ace_Matador switched in Suicune (lvl 100 Suicune).
    Suicune is exerting its pressure!
    Garchomp used Dragon Rush.
    A critical hit!
    Suicune lost 59% of its health.
    Suicune's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Suicune restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Garchomp used Dragon Rush.
    Suicune lost 29% of its health.
    Suicune used Roar.
    Articanus switched in Blissey (lvl 100 Blissey ?).
    Suicune's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Suicune restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Suicune used Calm Mind.
    Suicune's special attack was raised.
    Suicune's special defence was raised.
    Blissey used Thunder.
    It's super effective!
    Suicune lost 24% of its health.
    Suicune is paralysed! It may be unable to move!
    Gravity returned to normal!
    Suicune's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Suicune restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Blissey used Thunder.
    It's super effective!
    Suicune lost 7% of its health.
    6A9 Ace_Matador's Suicune fainted.
    ---
    6A9 Ace_Matador switched in Staraptor (lvl 100 Staraptor ?).
    Staraptor's intimidate cut Blissey's attack!
    Staraptor used Close Combat.
    It's super effective!
    Blissey lost 100% of its health.
    Articanus's Blissey fainted.
    Staraptor's defence was lowered.
    Staraptor's special defence was lowered.
    ---
    Articanus switched in Mamoswine (lvl 100 Mamoswine ?).
    Mamoswine used Ice Shard.
    It's super effective!
    Staraptor lost 100% of its health.
    6A9 Ace_Matador's Staraptor fainted.
    Mamoswine lost 10% of its health.
    ---
    6A9 Ace_Matador switched in Forretress (lvl 100 Forretress ?).
    Mamoswine used Earthquake.
    Forretress lost 40% of its health.
    Mamoswine lost 10% of its health.
    Forretress used Explosion.
    Mamoswine lost 81% of its health.
    Articanus's Mamoswine fainted.
    6A9 Ace_Matador's Forretress fainted.
    ---
    Articanus switched in Heatran (lvl 100 Heatran ?).
    6A9 Ace_Matador switched in Scizor (lvl 100 Scizor ?).
    tRUTH. has entered the room.
    6A9 Ace_Matador: If thats scarfed, Gg
    Heatran used Fire Blast.
    It's super effective!
    Scizor lost 100% of its health.
    6A9 Ace_Matador's Scizor fainted.
    Heatran lost 10% of its health.
    ---
    6A9 Ace_Matador switched in Lucario (lvl 100 Lucario ?).
    Articanus: nope
    Lucario used Close Combat.
    It's super effective!
    A critical hit!
    Heatran lost 90% of its health.
    Articanus's Heatran fainted.
    Lucario's defence was lowered.
    Lucario's special defence was lowered.
    Lucario lost 10% of its health.
    ---
    6A9 Ace_Matador: Yay
    6A9 Ace_Matador: =D
    adub_banded has entered the room.
    Articanus switched in Celebi (lvl 100 Celebi).
    Lucario used Swords Dance.
    Lucario's attack was sharply raised.
    Celebi used Grass Knot.
    It's not very effective...
    Lucario lost 36% of its health.
    ---
    Lucario used Extremespeed.
    Celebi lost 48% of its health.
    Lucario lost 10% of its health.
    Celebi used Grass Knot.
    It's not very effective...
    Lucario lost 33% of its health.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Lucario used Extremespeed.
    Celebi lost 43% of its health.
    Lucario lost 10% of its health.
    Celebi used Recover.
    Celebi restored 50% of its health.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Lucario used Extremespeed.
    Celebi lost 46% of its health.
    Lucario lost 2% of its health.
    6A9 Ace_Matador's Lucario fainted.
    Celebi used Grass Knot.
    But there was no target!
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    6A9 Ace_Matador switched in Celebi (lvl 100 Celebi).
    Celebi used Recover.
    Celebi restored 50% of its health.
    Celebi used Calm Mind.
    Celebi's special attack was raised.
    Celebi's special defence was raised.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Celebi used Hidden Power.
    It's super effective!
    Celebi lost 18% of its health.
    Celebi used Calm Mind.
    Celebi's special attack was raised.
    Celebi's special defence was raised.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Articanus switched in Garchomp (lvl 100 Garchomp ?).
    Celebi used Calm Mind.
    Celebi's special attack was raised.
    Celebi's special defence was raised.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Garchomp used Outrage.
    Garchomp went on a rampage!
    Celebi lost 40% of its health.
    Celebi used Psychic.
    Garchomp lost 91% of its health.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Garchomp used Outrage.
    Celebi lost 41% of its health.
    Celebi used Psychic.
    Garchomp lost 9% of its health.
    Articanus's Garchomp fainted.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Articanus switched in Celebi (lvl 100 Celebi).
    Celebi used Hidden Power.
    It's super effective!
    Celebi lost 11% of its health.
    Celebi used Recover.
    Celebi restored 50% of its health.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 5% of its health.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Celebi used Hidden Power.
    It's super effective!
    Celebi lost 11% of its health.
    Celebi used Recover.
    Celebi restored 41% of its health.
    ---
    Celebi used Hidden Power.
    It's super effective!
    Celebi lost 11% of its health.
    Celebi used Calm Mind.
    Celebi's special attack was raised.
    Celebi's special defence was raised.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    Celebi used Hidden Power.
    It's super effective!
    Celebi lost 9% of its health.
    Celebi used Calm Mind.
    Celebi's special attack was raised.
    Celebi's special defence was raised.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    6A9 Ace_Matador: I sence epic crit.
    Celebi used Hidden Power.
    It's super effective!
    A critical hit!
    Celebi lost 53% of its health.
    Celebi used Calm Mind.
    Celebi's special attack was raised.
    Celebi's special defence was raised.
    Celebi's leftovers restored its health a little!
    Celebi restored 6% of its health.
    ---
    6A9 Ace_Matador: =0
    6A9 Ace_Matador: 1337 prediction skillz
    Articanus: LOLOLOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL
    tRUTH.: lol
    Celebi used Hidden Power.
    It's super effective!
    A critical hit!
    Celebi lost 45% of its health.
    6A9 Ace_Matador's Celebi fainted.
    Articanus wins!
    obv replace both the names since I'm arguing against the formula, but this is obv what the formula is trying to "correct": instances where hax snatches victory from your grasp when it should be guaranteed.

    The log is priceless anyway =3

    Edit: shit this is old
  9. Lorak

    Lorak *leekspin*
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    Actually, it was an OU battle. Where Dodrio was the first and only Pokemon to be seen.
  10. DougJustDoug

    DougJustDoug Knows the great enthusiasms
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    Since we can't seem to get many hax logs, I think we'll have to make a major script change. Without some solid "proof", we really can't get too detailed about the formula. So, we have to keep the formula ambiguous. Obviously this isn't the preferred way of doing things, but we're running out of time, and we need to get on with Act 2. So here's how I propose to handle this:

    • I'll make a post that I have been working feverishly on the formula
    • I've been fascinated with it since X-Act first brought it up to me, and I think it has potential to be one of the most important developments in the history of the metagame
    • I've been working very closely with X-Act, Caelum, Obi and Brain to code an implementation of an Anti-hax Clause in Shoddy Battle that uses this formula
    • I have a working version of the clause right now, and would like to get some more hands-on testing
    • We are concerned about players possibly gaming the clause to their advantage, which would be antithetical to the whole purpose of the formula
    • We're not quite sure about how to handle this risk.
    • For now, I'm not going to list all the specifics of the clause. But, here are the basic functional elements of the algorithm for determining the winner:
      (List variables with long multi-word descriptions, not letter designations. But, the long descriptions will each start with the letter to be used later in the final formula)
    • I have opened a private server for some basic playtesting to work out a few kinks with the formula. I will give the address to a few PR members who seem like they are analytical and open-minded to the basic premise of this endeavor.

    This will kick off the next major stage of the prank. I am now targeting March 29th as the advertised "go live date" for the Anti-Hax Clause (read up this thread to see details of how I plan to "stall" until April 1st). So, after I post, we'll need to complete Act 2 fairly quickly (3-4 days). Based on our experience from early Act 1, I don't think that will be a problem. There is a lot of energy around this thing. When the discussion starts getting heated -- 4 days is much longer than it might seem.

    Details of the formula will be intentionally kept very vague, because -- I am proposing that we don't just have a "hidden variable", I think we should announce that we are keeping ALL details of the formula completely secret "in order to ensure that the clause can be implemented fairly for everyone". This announcement will be made sometime in Act 3, but no more than a day or two before the go-live day. It is very important that we don't actually tell anyone that the formula is a secret. Instead, the Mad Scientists will simply be vague and non-committal when posting. Preferably, we'll keep the mad scientist posts to a bare minimum. A little passive-aggressiveness is a wonderful tool in situations like these.

    This will make the big reveal much more impactful. Since, after this hits the real server on April 1st -- people will likely be clamoring with loud complaints like
    So, we can announce the big reveal with something like,
    This actually may be a better way to set up the ending than the original script. I'm open to feedback. But, if you give suggestions, please take into account all the dynamics going on right now -- the biggest of which, is a lack of much detailed info to support the formula.

    We'll need to get villains and heroes lined up quickly after I make my post. Right now, I'm thinking most of the heroes and villains will post under the pretense that they have logged onto the private server and seen the Clause in action. Even the villains who oppose the formula, should give a back-handed "testimonial" that the formula "works". NO ONE should indicate that the implementation is broken or even buggy. Villains should oppose the formula on ethical or competitive grounds -- not based on some idea that the formula doesn't work, or can't possibly account for all the different battle variables correctly.

    All details of the formula and it's implementation, should simply "not be mentioned". Just don't say anything about it, good or bad. Just leave it out. This may make a few outsiders scratch their head, since it is a somewhat obvious area of concern. But, we will instead divert attention to the rhetorical arguments and simply treat the clause itself as a fait accompli.

    NO ONE should indicate that any of their battle outcomes were "overturned" -- unless you are specifically asked to post as such. It is very important that we maintain the position that the clause is meant to only affect battles where extreme hax occurred in a close match. This will be claimed to be a very small percentage of battles. That way, when this goes live on the server and battles are overturned left and right -- people will be furious! If anyone is willing to doctor a log and make it look like a good example of a "hax overturn", then we'll use that log and post it as evidence. Otherwise, the fictitious private testing of the formula will only serve as a foundation for Act 3, where the admins declare that it will be implemented live on the Suspect ladder on March 29th.

    If other PR posters ask you publicly or privately to get on the server, tell them:
    I will ignore them, stall them, or give them a bullshit IP address and claim ignorance when they claim "I couldn't connect. Please help". In general, the "insiders" to this prank need to ignore the "outsiders" in PR as much as possible. We need to create our own storyline for the joke, and not write the story in the form of responses to people that are not in the cast.


    I'll wait a bit for feedback on the changes I am proposing here. But, I'd like to make my post tomorrow - so if you have suggestions, please make them ASAP.
  11. Lorak

    Lorak *leekspin*
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    I can try to get some more hax logs, if you want? What do you want in them?
  12. DougJustDoug

    DougJustDoug Knows the great enthusiasms
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    I'm looking for logs with multiple occurrences of the following kinds of "bad luck", predominantly working against you in a battle:

    • Crits -- preferably against a pokemon with a defensive setup like CM, Curse, etc)
    • Secondary move status effects -- like PAR on TBolt, Freeze on Ice Beam
    • Secondary boost effects for the opponent - like the opponent getting an ATK raise on Meteor Mash
    • Multiple misses by common metagame moves like Stone Edge, Fire Blast, etc. Preferably these misses should not occur against Sand Veil pokemon in Sandstorm, or any other evasion-boosted pokemon.
    • Multiple turns of full paralysis
    • Extremely high-damage calcs for the opponent's attacks. Preferably these attacks would cause a KO, when anything less than max-damage would not have KO'd.
    • Extremely low-damage calcs for your attacks. Preferably these attacks would not KO the opponent's pokemon, when a KO was virtually "guaranteed", except for the lowest of damage calcs..

    Obviously no one will have all of the above go against them in a battle. But the more, the better.

    I do not want logs that demonstrate a player using "cheap" strategies, and getting away with it - like Brightpowder Sand Evasion SS Gliscor. Your Dodrio log was an example of a player using a luck-based strategy (Acupressure) and succeeding. I don't want the log to spur controversy over what's cheap, and what's not. I want the log to be incontrovertible evidence of a good, solid player getting fucked over completely by really bad luck. Not just a crit or two, not just a burn on Flamethrower here or there -- I want logs that make people say,
  13. Elevator Music

    Elevator Music
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    Doug, I remember Mag saying that 3 days ago he was battling some random (smurfyboy88), and he said that uhh...

    I think it was he got hit by Hypnosis on some poke (Gengar I think), then when he woke up he got crit by Dark Pulse so he couldn't Agility and prevent Hypnosis from hitting again. Then he got crit and SpDef dropped from Shadow Ball, and then crit by Explosion ?_?

    I don't know if I completely believe him but is that worth looking into? I don't even know if that's -enough- hax.
    (I personally believe yes as I'd be pissed if I lose to anybody running some wierd Dark Pulse/Shadow Ball/Hypnosis/Explosion set)
  14. DougJustDoug

    DougJustDoug Knows the great enthusiasms
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    Act 2 is underway!

    I posted in the PR thread and I have sent a cue to all the Act 2 cast members. Things should get much more active over the next few days.
  15. DougJustDoug

    DougJustDoug Knows the great enthusiasms
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    It been two days since Act 2 was supposed to be "sparked" -- and not much has happened. A few cast members have posted (out of the 30 that were cued), and unsuspecting PR members like jrrrrr and Lemmiwinks are still on the hook -- but the whole prank has almost completely deflated. I have serious doubts as to whether there is enough energy in it to pull it off.

    I'd rather cancel the joke, rather than make some half-hearted attempt to make it work on April Fools Day. I'm not sure of the right way to close this thing up -- since so much has already happened up until now, that we can't completely "sweep it under the rug". Or maybe we can, I don't really know.

    I'll figure out the exact way to "cancel the show" later. For now, I'm going to focus on other more important projects.
  16. Calciphoce

    Calciphoce

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    I apologize for not doing my part sooner Doug. I'm organizing us ping-pong posters right now.
  17. Colonel M

    Colonel M I don't suck it's my team that sucks!
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    As far as I (the Extra), what exactly should I do?
  18. DougJustDoug

    DougJustDoug Knows the great enthusiasms
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    I wasn't posting here to reprimand any members of the cast, nor was I trying to make people get involved in the prank. No one needs to apologize for anything.

    It's obvious that the energy for this thing has waned, and there's not enough momentum on enough fronts to pull it off successfully. It's not a big deal. It's far better to pull the plug on it, rather than have it fail miserably at the end. Or worse, try to prod and berate people into "working" on something that is supposed to be fun. I'm not going to do that, nor do I want anyone else to.

    I'll figure out a way to back out of the setup we've laid so far. I just haven't figured it out yet. I'll probably lock the PR thread without explanation, until I decide what to do.

    We'll do something on April Fools. I still think the "Portuguese Front Page" will be funny, even if it isn't a red herring for this prank. We can chat about other stuff for April Fools, presumably something easy to pull with little or no setup.
  19. DougJustDoug

    DougJustDoug Knows the great enthusiasms
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    Haha -- I just got this PM from XxBlueCookiesXx, offering to help with the prank. It looks like user permissions are hosed a bit.

    If other voters now know the secret, it makes it even easier for me to kill this thing...

  20. SoT

    SoT Yes please!
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    Please tell me he was the only Voter who could see this secret forum...if not that could be a bit of trouble. :/
  21. Jimbo

    Jimbo take me anywhere
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    That happened with the Garchomp vote too lol, I remember getting access here and thinking it was amazing.

    I really don't think we should pull the plug, this is too awesome to do that :( I would get off my ass and post tomorrow if we're still doing it.

    edit - I posted now lol #_#

    also do all latios voters know about this? If only Blue Cookies knows it might be good to have a mole of sorts among the non-badged.

    edit 2- hi non badged users if you can see this, nothing to see here ~_~
  22. Kevin Garrett

    Kevin Garrett is a competitor
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    This is really bad. Now that non-badged users know about this, when people freak out on Shoddy, everyone will say it's just an April Fools joke.
  23. Elevator Music

    Elevator Music
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    I still think we should keep doing what we're doing and if it turns out that someone leaked it we can just kinda 'boo you' to them.

    I purposely posted something that I know isn't a good idea to get responses. I probably shoulda posted here first but I felt it was for a good cause so sorry !_!
  24. twash

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    I don't think anybody else knows, I think Blue Cookies was accidently set to super mod last night. I remember someone asking why he "looked" like one..
  25. Mekkah

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    I did, but I also fixed it maybe a minute later or so.
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