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Serious The Politics Thread
- Thread starter Oglemi
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I wouldn't ever expect anything different. Electing Republicans will exacerbate the issue, but neither party is going to do what most people here want regarding Israel. Israel has bipartisan support due to its status as a close American ally in a part of the world that largely detests American influence. Biden infamously called Israel an "investment" when he was a Senator.
GDP has severe limitations as a measure of quality-of-life. It fails to account for income inequality, sustainability of growth, and the impact of negative externalities like pollution. Using GDP as your one number to justify calling a nation poor is laughable.
We can acknowledge Biden's successes and still conclude that the time is right for him to step aside. I remain unconvinced that this is the right move from an election strategy perspective, but I understand it.
A mentor of mine at work once told me: “Your next promotion, your next role won’t come from what you accomplished, it’ll come from what others think you can accomplish next.”
Agreed. Although I maintain we have a lot of work to do getting VP Harris over the hump. I do not think the Democratic Party did us any favors. We will see soon if the anti-Trump coalition is strong enough to rewrite history!
My hunch is that Harris will help run up the numbers in NY and California but will be a couple points weaker in the Midwest. I think she should choose Roy Cooper (NC) or Mark Kelly (AZ) as VP and that her easier path goes through Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina (the latter two with huge black / HBCU support) as opposed to the upper Midwest, where Joe is clearly stronger.
EDIT: Friend in the party seems 90% certain it will be Andy Beshear if he’s willing.
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non-american non-portuguese here; you could not pay me enough to move to the usa (i would make $200k+ there). but have many times considered taking a pay cut and moving to portugal
Really sad that this is happening in a neighbour country. I'm from Spain and I have long feared the right-wing parties would go this way in the future. Has this been proposed by Chega, liberal parties or just by the PSD? Either way, getting rid of something that works for every single person in the country seems a terrible idea and I hope you guys will be demonstrating because if these changes happen it won't be easy to go back.
It’s been interesting how Progressives seem to be reacting to Kamala.
Maybe almost evenly split between the “Everyone consolidate behind her NOW,” and “Support the mini Primary.” Once again a scenario where Moderate vs Progressive doesn’t split an issue.
Progressive Coconut Pill: Mini primary is to chaotic, winning requires maintaining Dem Brand of party of sanity. Also Kamala is already one of the most progressive potential candidates and she has gotten even more progressive in her time with Biden.
Primary: Commitment to democracy, showing the importance of that principle. Don’t coronate a candidate.
I’m mostly agnostic, wouldn’t fight to take a side, but do find the coconut pill arguments more convincing. Certainly don’t blame Bowman or other progressive politicians that get behind her.
Also while I think the hard part of the VP pick will be getting a strong Democrat to board the train, most of the potential candidates look to be real energizers for the party and potential ticket.
Maybe almost evenly split between the “Everyone consolidate behind her NOW,” and “Support the mini Primary.” Once again a scenario where Moderate vs Progressive doesn’t split an issue.
Progressive Coconut Pill: Mini primary is to chaotic, winning requires maintaining Dem Brand of party of sanity. Also Kamala is already one of the most progressive potential candidates and she has gotten even more progressive in her time with Biden.
Primary: Commitment to democracy, showing the importance of that principle. Don’t coronate a candidate.
I’m mostly agnostic, wouldn’t fight to take a side, but do find the coconut pill arguments more convincing. Certainly don’t blame Bowman or other progressive politicians that get behind her.
Also while I think the hard part of the VP pick will be getting a strong Democrat to board the train, most of the potential candidates look to be real energizers for the party and potential ticket.
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I kind of get both perspectives in this particular case. Due process is important, but on the other hand there's literally nobody who could realistically challenge her, and the general election is a few months away. I think it would be a waste of energy and resources that would provide nothing but soundbites for the right to use against whoever wins (which will almost certainly be Harris). It would be a formality at this point, and not one I think we can afford.
The only way Democrats can screw this up even more is by having anything close to contested convention. Fuck the “principle,” we already threw democracy out of the window by disregarding the primary process. At this point, VP Harris needs to be nominated now! Stop worrying about appearing perfect and go fucking win. The clock is ticking.
Yeah, tend to agree. I don’t think anyone legit will challenge her anyway, making it a moot point. Also, strengths of the other candidates aside, I don’t think any of them have anywhere near Kamala’s name recognition— which I’d say outweighs any of their strengths.
Beshear would be a great pick for VP— hopefully he or someone else strong don’t chicken out, step up to meet the moment. There is no 2028 or 2032 if Kamala fails here.
While I am annoyed we didn't have a competitive primary, as I said before an open convention is pointless and self-destructive, especially when sufficient delegates have already now announced their support for Harris. On the plus side, the way this all shook out ended up maintaining one (and hopefully two) of the prime advantages of incumbency which is saving money (and party unity) and not having to waste it on a primary. If you, like me, believe Harris probably wouldn't have won an open primary, you can also thank Biden's timing in an ironic way for producing a likely more progressive option than who would have likely won a primary.
Best bop yet btw:
Best bop yet btw:
Chou Toshio help me understand. I am seeing almost like a euphoria throughout the left and Democratic Party as a whole since the ticket change.
Harris was originally on the Biden-Harris ticket (as VP) and was already an important part of the administration. We can assume she will likely continue to pursue all of the same policies. Is this whole thing just “vibes?”
Harris was originally on the Biden-Harris ticket (as VP) and was already an important part of the administration. We can assume she will likely continue to pursue all of the same policies. Is this whole thing just “vibes?”
Like it or not, vibes is part of politics. The entire Republican platform is based on vibes and they all contradict reality. That's just how the game is played. I don't think there will be a single difference between Harris's policies and what Biden's would have been, but I am interested in who her VP pick would be. There's some potential for some genuine good there.
The two old guys got 81 million and 74 million votes respectively. So we will see how the “vibes” translates to votes. A vote is a vote, whether people feel good about it or not.
Aside from DR already said— I see this all the time at work. Work only gets done through trust, and it’s impossible to maintain trust without giving folks at least some plausible story/narrative/plan that something will work— or at least COULD work. Biden had lost this.
No one knows the future, and no exec expects me to either— but especially in a bad scenario it’s totally different between:
“Things are going awfully, we’re aware of that, and here’s the substantial course correction we’re making.”
and
“Things are going awfully but honesty there’s nothing to do and we hope it all works out.”
Even if my course correction is actually not a mountain mover, and might not work, there is a world of difference in trust building there—
—and sometimes trust, narrative is ALL you need. Look at the way the stock market functions. Look at the donations pouring in for Harris. Think of all the black moms and Young People who will come out and actively campaign and knock doors for Kamala who wouldn’t have for Joe. A trust building narrative can move people to change the material condition of a situation dramatically.
The “trust” was lost when not even a minute after one debate, all the so called friends/allies threw his ass under the bus instead of offering support. Which one can logically conclude that support was never there to begin. It makes the parties involved look conniving and hypocritical.
I don’t think your analysis is right. There is no exec or CEO that could survive at my company acting as complacent as Biden, offering so little counter measure in face of mounting crisis or even perceived mounting crisis.
There was no crisis. The Democrats committed PR blunder after PR blunder. You don’t throw your exec under the bus after a single mistake. I don’t know what kind of company you work for that does that.
If you think the debate is the first time Biden has showed signs of cognitive decline, you're sorely mistaken.
If you think the Democrats don’t have a messaging problem, or that it’s “normal” behavior to so publicly panic, I don’t know what to tell you. The Democrats would rather throw their people in the trash than properly handle the media narrative. They pulled the same shit with Al Franken.
Sure. One off instances are reasonable to forget—
But when you don’t and can’t aggressively campaign for a year or now…
When you don’t show up and help down ballot candidates rise
When you turn down the Super Bowl interview
When young people are leaving over Gaza
When you are relying constantly on the party apparatus to carry you without carrying back—
—and THEN you have the incident in the debate, people bring up the question of leadership AND you have no answer on what you can do NOW to change the trajectory AND you demand others to fall in line— it’s different.
Biden finding himself in this shaky position and NOT being able to promise an aggressive counter campaign storming the map— that’s different.
The more absurd thing that I think we agree on is that the party didn’t act sooner to put contingency in place, to raise the bench. But that’s the democrats…
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Re: down ballot, remind us how 2022 mid-terms went compared to 2010 and 1994.
When a President is elected the expectation in the party is they will serve 8 years. You don’t elevate a contingency. That is what the VP is for. If Kamala wins in 2024, plotting a contingency means a serious primary challenge in 2028 which only serves to undermine her as sitting President.
Without the risk of croaking mid-term and also being able to not get folded in a debate!
I really don't get all this hating. You don't really think people actually left home in the 2024 primaries to vote specifically for Joe Biden, do you?
Any warm body will do for the Democrats. This whole mess just happened because instead of coming out with Kamala right out the gate, they picked the one guy who wasn't a warm body. When your candidate makes Jeb Bush look like Saxton Hale, you're cooked. Plain and simple.
If you aren’t interested in my POV don’t ask for it. You’re free to see things differently.
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