+ ---- + ------------------ + --------- + ------ + ------- +
| 1 | Alakazam | 30.90857%
| 2 | Starmie | 24.60772%
| 3 | Jynx | 20.06382%
| 4 | Gengar | 11.51512%
| 5 | Jolteon | 4.44745%
| 6 | Zapdos | 2.41273%
| 7 | Tauros | 1.55654%
| 8 | Exeggutor | 1.27072%
| 9 | Chansey | 1.10585%
So: I went ahead and clumped how to lead Jynx into 2 main categories, and this will be the lions share of all leads. Alakazam and Starmie are clumped as one. Those two combined; they occupy 54% of leads. Jynx and Gengar are then lumped as one. They occupy 31% of leads. If I consider this only two things, this makes 85% of leads two things.
I'm going to estimate Jynx equity turn 0, without calculating for Starmie or Alakazam, and then proof some math for how to lead Jynx against starmie+Alakazam at the end as one.This means I have to calculate how often Jynx is favorable to me instead of my opponent in the very early game for everything except starmie+Alakazam:
Jynx vs Jynx =50% favorable outcome so 50% of 20 is 10%.
Jynx vs Gengar=50% (remember this is an estimate) so 50% of 11.5 is 5.75%.
Jynx vs Jolteon=75% favorable event for Jynx, 75% of 4 is 3%.
Jynx vs Zapdos = 80% favorable event for Jynx, 80% of 2 is ... 1.6%
Jynx vs Tauros is roughly 50% favorable for Jynx,
50% of 1.5 is 0.75%
Jynx vs exeggutor: 80%+ favorable for Jynx 85% of 1.2 is roughly 1%.
Jynx vs Chansey is roughly 80% favorable to Jynx so 80% of 1.1 is 0.9%
Now let's add up all those numbers in bold to get how often jynx finds favorable situations.
That number is 10+5.75+3+1.6+0.75+1+0.9=23%.
Now for the starmie+Alakazam combo which makes up 54% of leads:
Next is to consider, if you consider yourself having a paralyzed Chansey as favorable, then we can calculate how often we need to switch to Chansey turn 0 to protect our equity. We already know from everything else that we have 23 of the 50 we need to be ahead of our opponent. So we are 46% of the way there. Now how do we get enough of our own Chanseys paralyzed? (Alternatively we can cast a blizzard on opponents that try to get tricky and expect us to try to swap to Chansey to take paralysis and they might try to get something like say exeggutor turn 1 to capitalize on that.
So let's start with how often our opponent is doing that? Let's say our opponent uses starmie/zam to t-wave 66% and try to out swap to exeggutor 33%. How do we mathematically defeat that opponent? I will show you with math and estimates.
Lets do an example:
Jynx uses Lovely kiss 50%, we also swap to Chansey 50%.
Lovely kiss 50%: so 66% of the time our opponent t waves, we get paralyzed with our Jynx 50% of the time and manage to get a 62.5% lovely kiss(remember we take paralysis) turn 0 off for 62.5% of 66 is 41.25% then of the the other 38.5 that we either missed or took full para, we get a redraw of another 62.5% chance for our lovely kiss to land so 62.5% of 38.5 is 24%
So of the 66% possible we can capture favor for, roughly 62.5% is on turn 0 and another 24% is captured on turn 1, now I'll add some estimates if both of those didn't work it's another 62.5% of 24 which is 15, but at this point they have counter switched, but we are full health but paralyzed so we will subtract 30% to turn that 15 into only 10.
41+24+10=75% so we hold 75% equity of 66 which is 49.5%.
Now for the 33% that they switch to exeggutor.
We get 0.75% of 33 which is 24.75% if we miss, they have exeggutor in vs Jynx so we get another 0.75 of 8.25 which is 6.2%
24.75+6.2= 31
This means 31 of 33 it favors Jynx.
So we hold 93% equity of 33=31
We also hold 75% equity of 66=49.5
31+49.5=80.5%.
Lastly Alakazam+starmie combined make up 54% of leads so we get 80.5% of 54 which is 43.5%.but we only use Jynx lovely kiss half of the time for our scenerio so we capture half of this. Which is 21.75%.
Now to calculate for the equity of our Chansey swaps being favorable for our Jynx leads.
Our opponent in our scenerio rips thunderwave 66% of the time so we capture 66% of 50 straight up for 33%, but then having a paralyzed Chansey from here is flimsy to say that it's ahead until we get sleep off....but I don't care to calculate too far into this.
The other 33% our opponent actually out swaps us 50% of the time and gets their Exeggutor in favorably vs our Chansey, meaning we have to swap back to Jynx and they pick up 75% of 33%. Which is 24.75, which means we get 8.25. If they miss we then get 75% of 8.25 which is 6.2%. now we divide all of this by two, because we swap half of the time, meaning the we get an additional 3.1% of favorable scenerios from sheer luck, when they out swap us, and then they miss.
54%=total pool competing for.
Of this we capture 80% of 66% of 54, which is 28% of the 100.
As well the 3.1% of the 100.
Now we add in what Jynx accomplishes vs the other 46% of leads, which makes up 23 of the 100.
In conclusion, Jynx should be favorable to our fictional Alakazam+starmie, as well as other leads a total sum of 28+3+23=54%. So we win 54/100.
This 54/100 is vs all of opponents using the leads as posted at the start of this post. 1760+GXE opponents meaning just using Jynx will yield a positive outcome more than half of the time, vs all of opponents, with the caveats that you consider a paralyzed Chansey a favorable outcome, for some of the outcomes.
This is obviously done with estimates, but I think I used enough data points to say I should be within 80% of what I think. I actually think Jynx is more like 60/100 favorable. But my math is showing 54/100.
(Meaning 54 of 100 matches favor Jynx into all possible scenerios)
Also I did not calculate for leads used less than 1% of the time.
The fictional opponent I presented is actually probably using a range that's more difficult than what you might actually find in reality such as their Alakazam+starmie is (t waving 66%, swapping exeggutor 33%) some actual opponents will only t wave, which would make for different math. That math actually favors Jynx even more heavily though.
Tldr; use Jynx and win. Jynx wins 54/100 matches vs 1760+GXE total lead composition possibilities, and I'm estimating slightly higher at like upper 50's.
(This means Jynx finds itself 54 of 100 matches in a favorable position and 46 of 100 in a not favorable position out of all of the possible things opponents will lead with, at the rates they will lead them with, from the standpoint of the 1760+ GXE players last month, though we did have to estimate to how our opponents will play Alakazam+starmie on turn 0).
As in, with what I'm saying; if you just lead Jynx you should be able to win vs anyone, at least the starting first 2 turns, more than half of the time, regardless of anything, because in our scenerio we are playing against the range of possibilities instead of the opponent.
***So what I calculated is an estimate for a binary yes/no calculation for if it's positive for the Jynx lead player by turn 2 to be in a positive scenerio, and concluded 54/100 matches vs 1760+ GXE players, that the total sum of their range (all leads possible) will produce a favorable turn 2 scenerio for myself leading with Jynx 100% of the time.
