Jynx blizzard landing on tauros is a good outcome because tauros hp is significantly more valuable than jynx hp. A 48% hp jynx can sleepblock exeggutor/chansey, and still get a sleep off -> a 55% hp tauros is significantly crippled
Yeah, but I have to weigh losing Jynx and playing the game out 5vs6 21% of the time, The positive of blizzard freezing is negated by missing. So then the only thing left is to compare crit chance, speed tiers, and also if crit is true, Tauros gets the 1hko and Jynx doesn't.
Lastly is there a chance the Tauros player can switch? And no there isn't, because they aren't going to swap out into a lovely kiss. So it makes blizzard for the purpose of that they sometimes swap is then also a moot point too.
That makes blizzard not good here.
Or rather, the relative forward progress of your opponent will supercede your own relative progress, because it still has positive outcomes, but I think they are outweighed significantly, because If I do the math for this:
Tauros crits and 1hko Jynx=21% 100-21=79
Jynx uses blizzard 79% of the time.
Blizzard misses 10%. 10% of 79 is 7.9, rounded to 8. 79-8=71
71% of the time Jynx gets to land a blizzard
From here, 14% of the time Jynx crits and does 90%, 10% are freezes, and 47% of the time will be an average hit of 45% dmg.
So:
A. 21% Jynx gets crit and ko'd
B. 6% Jynx is full para'd and didn't move
C. 47% Jynx lands a blizzard doing 45%
D. 8% Jynx misses
E. 7% Jynx freezes tauros
F. 14% Jynx crits and does 90%
(24% of the time Jynx is paralyzed by body slam)
So scenerios A,B,D are bad for Jynx, but I guess it isn't that bad.
Compared to lovely kiss though:
A.21% Jynx gets crit and ko'd
B. 6% Jynx is full para'd and can't move
C. 54% Jynx lands lovely kiss
(24% of the time Jynx is paralyzed by body slam)
So the 'A's and 'B's of each blizzard and lovely kiss cancel each other, so that's 27% similar, but there's still 73% that isn't.
Comparing item "C" on each option is crucial.
C. 54% Jynx lands lovely kiss vs Tauros
C. 47% Jynx lands blizzard for 45% dmg
also +14% of the time Jynx crits for 90%
So I'm comparing 54% of the time sleeping Tauros vs 61% of the time doing damage, and then what though? Tauros gets to double hit the Jynx player if they go for blizzard way to often, because it's not only turn 0, but the lovely kiss option sets up a great play for turn 1. While blizzard sets for a disaster on turn 1. If Jynx lands lovely kiss on turn 0, it sets up for damage on turn 1. Meanwhile if Jynx uses blizzard, which is already somewhat bad for turn 0, but that's not the bad part, it's on turn 1 after taking a body slam from Tauros, then what? Its such a big difference that if isn't close.
Switching out if compared is also losing because turn 0 will always result in damage and there is a devastating information disadvantage of not knowing the Tauros sets. There's nothing to swap to...maybe Gengar+Zapdos could thwart Tauros leads somewhat well.
Realistically the cards play themselves I think, the Tauros player is forced into body slamming, and the Jynx player is forced into lovely kiss, by game theory.
So who wins in the end Tauros or jynx?
Well for Tauros:
A. 21% crits and KOs jynx
B. 19% Jynx misses lovely kiss
C. 54% Jynx lands lovely kiss
D. 6% Jynx is paralyzed and can't move
That means it's a positive outcome for Tauros 21+19+6 for a total of 46% of the time.
The Jynx player will land lovely kiss 54% of the time so it's positive for the Jynx player more often 54%Jynx 46%Tauros for favorable turn 0 outcome, very volatile opening for both indeed.
Also...it sets the Tauros player for a late game with sleeping Tauros often, which means the sleep means it's closer to a KO than a sleep on let's say Alakazam, Starmie or Jynx (things that are normally sleep sacked have a greater chance of waking up). So it becomes akin to a 95% KO instead of a 85% KO. (Comparing the relative difference in sleeping pokes for both sides wake up odds) I predict Tauros will wake up at like 5% of the time maybe compared to maybe 10-15% for standard sleep sacks.
Also calculating it like "Jynx is still useful at 48% and Tauros is better to do damage on, although justifiable, calculating this out further isn't too hard though....if Jynx does indeed use blizzard, the Tauros player will mode 55%, the Jynx player will mode 45%, the Tauros player on turn 1 then gets to freely hit whatever Jynx player swaps to, than the Jynx player is at the information disadvantage of the century because even after taking damage twice, the moveset isn't known, which is...more damage.
Jynx using blizzard is super losing.
In short: Jynx using lovely kiss is somewhat winning though.