Official MLB 2012 Season Thread

[biggie]

You can sit him now and start him up at the end of September to get him ready for a playoff push. And there's never a guarantee in sports; look at the Phillies this year. I think you push for it when you can and deal with next year when it happens. Also, there's no guarantee that he's going to be with the Nationals for his career. He is represented by Scott Boras after all.

Also, Bartolo Colon suspended 50 games for positive test for testosterone. That makes 2 former Yankees banned in less than 2 weeks time. Yikes.

 

[Byrne]

No, because there is no guarantee that he'll pitch well in the playoffs if he sits right now. I also think we should do whatever his doctors say because there is no reason to go all in for a WS and risk the career of the guy who is your future. If we were in first place because we had a bunch of players who we knew were going to be gone at the end of the year then maybe you go all in. But all evidence points to us being better next year. We'll have a fully healthy Strasburg and Ryan Zimmerman. Harper, Lombardozzi, and Moore will all have a year of playing under their belt. And the only notable players I think might leave are Edwin Jackson and LaRoche. And we've got money.

It's just pathetic when people think this way about it. You NEVER know what might happen. Your team might finish with the #1 overall seed in the National League. This is a team that has been historically terrible and this is their chance to win a World Series, and you're just fine with your best overall player not being involved when he says he feels totally fine? That's just so fucking dumb.

And here you are just assuming you'll be great next year. Yeah, okay. That's what the Philadelphia Phillies said. What the fuck ever, you can be ignorant all you want. I'm totally fine with the most dangerous opponent for my favorite team willingly making themselves significantly less dangerous. Less competition for the Reds!

 

[Killah]

Jesus, Byrne, there's absolutely no need to be so hostile.

There's legitimate arguments for both sides about whether they should start or sit him. If their doctors say that he should stop pitching in the next couple weeks, I can damned well guarantee they know a bit more about his situation than you or I. For a kid who's never pitched this much in a season, going even further just increases the risk that something bad happens to his arm. Given the fact that there is incredible strain on pitchers in the playoffs, who often pitch on short rest, it poses an incredible risk for a guy that could be pitching for them for more than a decade longer.

Benching him now and pitching him in the playoffs might be an even worse idea. You have no idea whether he'll be just as effective (they call it "midseason form" for a reason). You have no idea if the sudden changes in workload will cause a higher injury risk (there's a reason pitchers start preparing for the season months early and take rehab starts). Do not insult people for being "ignorant" for assuming something about next season; you're assuming that there's no risk for pitching the kid further! Isn't that basically the same thing?

 

[Byrne]

you're assuming that there's no risk for pitching the kid further! Isn't that basically the same thing?

There's a damn risk for any player on any day. They're playing a fucking professional sport for god sakes. On any given day someone could slam a line drive right at a pitcher, making him jump up and he'll land on his leg funny and tear the shit out of his MCL and ACL. I guess no team should ever pitch their best pitchers ever again because they could get hurt!!!! :( :( :( :( Go get in the clubhouse right away, Sabathia! We can't afford to let you get hurt in the playoffs and stuff!

When you're in a position like the Nationals are, you go all out for the World Series. Home field advantage through the entire playoffs, the best pitching rotation right now in the MLB, a slew of hitters that are hot as hell. Yet their going to sit their best player just because the doctor's think there's a chance he could hurt himself again? It's the most inane thing I've ever seen in sports.

 

[Killah]

increases the risk

incredible strain on pitchers in the playoffs

higher injury risk

Did you just skip to the last line of my post?



Of course there's a risk for anyone to be hurt. It's something called "risk assessment," determining when the risk outweighs the reward. The Washington Nationals would rather not cause undue risk for the health of their future for a mere chance at a title - one they are not even favored to win with Strasburg.

 

[biggie]

The multitude of vulgarities aside, I do agree with Byrne's stance on this. Shelving Strasburg for a short period of time so that you can conserve him for the playoffs is really no different than a pitcher going on the DL and missing a month. Will there need to be some time before the playoffs to knock off any rust that has accumulated? Absolutely. But you owe it to your organization, your fans, and your other players to do everything that you can to play to the best of your ability. Plus, dude is on a four year deal signed in 2009 with Scott Boras as his agent. He's going where the money is and there will be PLENTY of teams lining up to snatch him from the Nats. There is no guarantee that he will be with the team beyond 2013.

 

[moi]

The multitude of vulgarities aside, I do agree with Byrne's stance on this. Shelving Strasburg for a short period of time so that you can conserve him for the playoffs is really no different than a pitcher going on the DL and missing a month. Will there need to be some time before the playoffs to knock off any rust that has accumulated? Absolutely. But you owe it to your organization, your fans, and your other players to do everything that you can to play to the best of your ability. Plus, dude is on a four year deal signed in 2009 with Scott Boras as his agent. He's going where the money is and there will be PLENTY of teams lining up to snatch him from the Nats. There is no guarantee that he will be with the team beyond 2013.

Actually, there is a guarantee. Per baseball-reference, he's arb eligible in 2014 (the four year deal was just to give him a higher value for his non arb years). The arbitrators never award anything too absurd (though they value the less essential things). There's no way the Nationals would refuse anything the arbitrators deem him to be worth.

But on the topic of Strasburg, from an organizational standpoint, you guys have it right. If they are going to conserve innings, do it now. They've got a big lead, and the competition starts to dilute itself in September (with all the callups and whatnot). It is so absurd to throw away your best player in a time when the competition is at its greatest.

and @Killah.

one they are not even favored to win with Strasburg.

The thing is, no one is really favoured in the playoffs, it's a crapshoot in every sport. Going by the logic that not being guaranteed to win the playoffs meaning you should weaken your roster strength is a bit counteractive to the sports philosophy of winning a championship. I would do everything in my power to increase my probability. Because really, what guarantees that the Nationals will be in as good of an opportunity later as they are now? (in terms of seeding/avoiding playin). Though they CAN quite possibly be in this position later, the current position is more important, as you can never guarantee the opportunity will present itself later.

And the point about greater strain in the playoffs is generally false. For the most part, pitchers are run out on normal rest unless they prove themselves capable of going on three days rest (something that Strasburg obviously would not be allowed to do). Unless you're arguing the point that higher competition = higher strain, which has no provable validity.

 

[moi]

sorry to double post just want to drag everyone's attention; Nationals confirm they're skipping innings now to get playoff innings later.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8294265/washington-nationals-replace-stephen-strasburg-2-3-starts-davey-johnson-says

 

[Killah]

Nationals confirm they're skipping innings now to get playoff innings later.

This is what I felt was the best course of action, though I'd be understanding of the Nats if they were unwilling to pitch him at all in the playoffs.

There isn't really a "right" answer in this scenario because we can't know what will happen (except for Byrne of course).

The thing is, no one is really favoured in the playoffs, it's a crapshoot in every sport.

Definitely, but there is always a team that is most likely to win. Since there's 6 + 4 teams, you figure each of the division winners have about a 15-20% chance to win the world series, so there is no true favorite in the sense of a single team being favored over the field.

And the point about greater strain in the playoffs is generally false. For the most part, pitchers are run out on normal rest unless they prove themselves capable of going on three days rest (something that Strasburg obviously would not be allowed to do). Unless you're arguing the point that higher competition = higher strain, which has no provable validity.

I don't follow the stats significantly, but from what I have seen there is a general trend that a team's ace will pitch deep into every game and usually run up high pitch counts in order to preserve the bullpin for other games. The rest thing is another issue, and you're right in that they wouldn't let him pitch more than once every five days, but frequent high pitch count would be a concern to me... of course, it'd be likely that they'd have him on a pitch count too.

 

[moi]

Only thing I think will continue conversation because agreement is essentially reached elsewhere.

I don't follow the stats significantly, but from what I have seen there is a general trend that a team's ace will pitch deep into every game and usually run up high pitch counts in order to preserve the bullpin for other games. The rest thing is another issue, and you're right in that they wouldn't let him pitch more than once every five days, but frequent high pitch count would be a concern to me... of course, it'd be likely that they'd have him on a pitch count too.

That works both ways, usually (depending on the intelligence of the manager at least). While a starter is more likely to be pitching longer if he is pitching at a high level, managers are more likely to pull their starters in a close game for their top bullpen arms in order to maintain the lead. (this is purely anecdotal in from me as well but seems pretty sound)

 

[Wikey]

Guess what? Now that I know what the Nats are going to do I'm happy with it. Because I trust their management because they have earned it.

I am upset that people keeping referring to Stras as our best player, though. Is his ceiling lightyears above anyone else on the team? YES. Is his stuff nastier than anybody else in the league? YES. Is he the best pitcher in the league or even on our team? No. He still needs work and while he has been incredible this year there are two guys who have played with more consistency and skill. When all is said and done Stras will probably be a god compared to those two if he stays healthy but not this season.

That said I am excited at the prospect of watching him pitch our first playoff game.

 

[moi]

Instead of just giving claims, provide reasoning as to why Strasburg is inferior to both Gonzalez and Zimmerman.

edit - some of my own reasoning

Literally the only gripe I would have with Strasburg is his tendency to use a few too many pitches for someone with his dominant arsenal (4.00 P/PA), and shortening his outings because of that. He is going to consistently be in the running for the pitcher with the most valuable innings, but he will be the undoubtable league number one if he can decrease his pitch # without losing the efficiency.

 

[Wikey]

That's exactly it. He runs his pitch count up fast. He's alo the most likely of those three to get the quick hook because he's getting hit hard. Of the three he's the most likely to go from his A game to giving up runs the fastest. He seems to be easily thrown off his game by rain and such. It's not like I'm saying he sucks. Just that those guys have been more consistent and it's not fair to tout him as our best player THIS YEAR when I think that at the very least Gio has earned that this year.

When Strasburg is at his best he dominates like no one else. Gio isn't even on the same planet when Stras is hot. If we get to game seven of the WS I want Stephen in there. But he just hasn't played the best this year.

 

[biggie]

Question to ask everyone. In one of my other leagues, I got offered Evan Longoria for Roy Halladay straight up. It's a keeper league, and my SP after the trade would be Greinke, Maholm, Harvey, Morrow, and Hanson. My keepers could be any 4 of the following: Giancarlo Stanton, Jose Bautista, Desmond Jennings, Brandon Phillips, Billy Butler, Greinke, Halladay (If I don't make the trade), Longoria (If I do make the trade).

Thoughts?

 

[Byrne]

Elite hitters are always more valuable than elite pitchers, unless you're getting something nuts like Kershaw, and I honestly don't think Halladay is Kershaw level. Evan Longoria is one of the best at the most thin position in baseball (Cabrera, Wright, Longoria, Beltre, Encarnacion...that's about it at third). You can always make great spot starts with pitchers and get Halladay-like performances quite often if you're smart. I would do that trade in a second and keep Stanton, Bautista, Phillips, Longoria. If you're not feeling that and really want a pitcher, I would keep Greinke over Phillips probably.

Speaking of Greinke, wtf is up with the Angels? They literally have two top 5 players (yes, I already consider Trout a top 5 player), a ridiculous rotation with Weaver, Greinke, Wilson, Haren; they have a flamethrower for a closer, and they also have some more great players in their lineup, including Trumbo who is already becoming an elite power hitter. How the fuck are they not even in the second wild card spot now? They're barely ahead of the Seattle Mariners.

 

[ButteredToast]

Yeah, the Red Sox are fucked to hell. Lets just put the whole fucking team on the DL, save them for next year, and call up all the AAA guys to finish the season so that way we have a bitching draft spot.

Alfredo Aceves can kiss my ass.

 

[JimBob]

Byrne: they had a really awful april, so they've been playing catch-up most of the year. If I recall correctly, they also had a bad week last week, while the Mariners won 8 in a row.

Reports: Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Nick Punto possibly heading to Dodgers

...

 

[ButteredToast]

The Red Sox are to Boston as LeBron is to Cleveland. I'm going to go build a fire and burn all my shit.

 

[Exploits]

Anyone who knows anything about baseball knows this would be a great trade for us. What are you talking about?

 

[ButteredToast]

Anyone who knows anything about baseball knows this would be a great trade for us. What are you talking about?

Go root for the Yankees you communist.

 

[Stallion]

Can we just all agree that the Red Sox suck?

 

[Exploits]

The Red Sox are potentially getting rid of 250+ million, including the albatross contracts of Beckett and Crawford, PLUS getting back a couple of decent prospects and you're bitching about the trade?

 

[JimBob]

well, we do have to get rid of our best player, who was signed for another five years.

 

[Exploits]

well, we do have to get rid of our best player, who was signed for another five years.

Getting rid of Crawford's nightmare contract and Beckett is worth it. This team as currently constructed was going nowhere and significant change was needed. If the trade goes through we get a ton of payroll flexibility (something we didn't have) and a few prospects that could be kept or used as part of another deal in the offseason. Adrian Gonzalez will be tough to replace certainly, no doubt about that. But I think we still have some solid pieces to build around and with a few good moves in the offseason we could be WC contenders next year. That is, unless they're planning a complete rebuild by trading Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lester etc, in which case I'd be pissed.

 

[ivar]

relevant because it relates to ownership of the blue jays: rogers just bought the score! does that spell doom for getting blanked and drunk jays fans that shit on rogers? and what about the score's excellent broadcasting (as compared to other major canadian sports channels)? and beyond that, it seems like rogers is buying everything toronto sports related... blue jays fans, let us hold hands in solidarity



and holy shit about this potential red sox trade, its blowing my mind... but i guess they're getting rid of their major contracts and starting a retooling process, keeping major talent like ellsbury, pedroia (who's still in his prime and signed until 2015), lester, bucky, andrew bailey, and salty, bard and doubront (?) maybe, and whatever talent they have in the minors or will get from this proposed dodgers trade. the only holdovers are lackey for two more years after this and dice-k with one more year. thats not a bad deal for the red sox, and the strategy makes sense since they probably didnt think they could compete during the prime of youkilis, beckett, a-gon, crawford and ortiz, so why let their massive contracts (including how much it would take to resign ortiz given his age) bog you down, especially since all are on the downswings of their careers?