Pyritie
TAMAGO
Here we go again with the awful 50/50 "argument".It isn't.
A 50/50 is not a prediction, its exactly what it sounds like; a coin flip.
Lets take a mega mawile that got to +2 by setting up on your AV azumarill (ez pz) and you send in a Swords dance/rocks/outrage/eq (common lead set) to try and revenge it (rocks r up, sash is broken)
Now what do you do? What is the correct play? If you EQ, mega mawile could just predict that and sucker punch, and after rocks a +2 sucker punch cleanly OHKO's 4/0 garchomp. If you use SD, Mega Mawile could also go for Play Rough expecting that! Try to switching into something else? We'll see how well it takes a +2 Play Rough. There is literally no right play.
I could predict Mega Mawile to expect Eq, and therefore SD to avoid the sucker.
The opponent could predict me to predict him and go for play rough instead.
I could also then predict my opponent to predict me to predict him and go straight for the sucker.
Meanwhile, my opponent could still pre- you get the point.
First of all, you're already completely disregarding the first turn where mmaw gets a free +2 and you switch out to chomp for whatever reason. That's already twisting your argument in your favour. What happens if mmaw predicts your switch to chomp and just play roughs right out of the gate? This whole situation goes back to risk vs reward, a core part of pokemon.
Let's analyse this further and go back to when your AV azu was out against their mmawile. You don't know its set except that it has play rough, and it's already mega'd so azu is at +0. Both pokemon have taken stealth rock damage once but otherwise are at (close to) full health.
There are several ways this could go:
- You stay in with azumarill and use waterfall, mawile uses SD, mawile is now at ~50%. Lets say they speed tie.
- Azumarill uses aqua jet, doing 25% and mawile OHKOs azumarill with play rough.
- Azumarill uses waterfall and wins the speed tie, possibly KOing mawile.
- Azumarill uses waterfall and loses the speed tie, and mawile OHKOs azumarill with play rough.
- You send out chomp. Now you're in the situation you described, except mawile is at 50% instead, and you're down azumarill.
- You stay in with azumarill and use waterfall, mawile uses play rough. You win the speed tie. Mawile is now at 50%, azumarill was OHKOd.
- You send out chomp and revenge it with EQ.
- You stay in with azumarill and use waterfall, mawile uses play rough. You win the speed tie. Mawile is now at 50%, azumarill has a sliver of HP left. (68% to OHKO after SR)
- You aqua jet, mawile sucker punches. You win the speed tie, mawile is now at 25% and azumarill takes no damage.
- You aqua jet again, mawile sucker punches. You win the speed tie, mawile is KOd.
- You aqua jet again, mawile sucker punches. You lose the speed tie, azumarill is KOd.
- You aqua jet, mawile sucker punches. You lose the speed tie and azumarill is KOd.
- You aqua jet, mawile uses play rough. Mawile is now at 25% and azumarill is KOd.
- You aqua jet, mawile sucker punches. You win the speed tie, mawile is now at 25% and azumarill takes no damage.
- You stay in with azumarill and use waterfall, mawile uses play rough. You lose the speed tie. Mawile is unscathed and azumarill was OHKOd.
- You send out chomp and revenge it with EQ.
- You stay in with azumarill and use waterfall, mawile uses play rough. You lose the speed tie. Mawile is now at 50% and azumarill has a sliver of HP left.
- See the above block, I don't need to copy it here.
- You switch azumarill out to garchomp, mawile uses SD. Now you're in the situation you described.
- Garchomp uses SD, mawile sucker punches. Nothing really happens.
- Garchomp uses SD, mawile uses play rough. Garchomp is KOd.
- Garchomp uses EQ, mawile sucker punches. Garchomp is KOd and mawile takes a little bit of rough skin damage.
- Garchomp uses EQ, mawile uses play rough. Mawile is KOd.
- Garchomp uses EQ, mawile uses play rough. Mawile survives with a sliver of health and KOs garchomp. (68% to OHKO after SR)
- You send azumarill back out.
- Azumarill uses aqua jet, mawile uses sucker punch, you win the speed tie, mawile is KOd.
- Azumarill uses aqua jet, mawile uses sucker punch, azumarill takes 50% and mawile is KOd.
- You send azumarill back out.
- You switch azumarill out to garchomp, mawile uses play rough. Garchomp is KO'd and mawile takes a little bit of rough skin damage. You're now back at square one with a fainted garchomp.
Not only that but paying attention to how your opponent plays could also help give you more clues as to which path is the right one to take. Are they aggressive with mawile and tend to just go right for the attacking moves? Do they double switch with it to gain information about how you play? Do they spam sucker punch? Stuff like that.
A true 50/50 is when you get into a situation where there are very few ways for it to go and exactly half of them result in you losing and the others result in you winning. Consider this:
Both players on their last pokemon, a bisharp vs a talonflame, both on pretty low health. Bisharp will be KOd with two brave birds or one flare blitz, and talonflame will be KO'd by either a sucker punch or a knock off.
1) Talonflame uses brave bird, bisharp uses sucker punch (which fails). Talonflame uses brave bird again and wins.
2) Talonflame uses flare blitz, bisharp uses sucker punch. Bisharp wins.
3) Talonflame uses brave bird, bisharp uses knock off. Bisharp wins.
4) Talonflame uses flare blitz, bisharp uses knock off. Talonflame wins.
THAT is a 50/50.
P.S. don't forget play rough only has 90% accuracy, so take that into account!
Last edited: