Okay, cool. Let's start this.
Now yeah, let me start of by fully admitting my position is much weaker than proph's, that is of course by design however. So let's look back at the scenario of the two of us.
Now we both joined basically on day 3, with proph delaying his entry until after KOC had been exposed by whydon. The day 3 start is very important. Because it is within day 3, that the rest of the scum team get pretty much nailed down: XX was already pretty much thought of as scum, aubisio was on that way and KOC had just been fleshed out by the watcher.
So here's the real course to consider. If Proph and I both joined the game when the remaining scum members have all been outed, who'se play reflects the scum course of action best. After all, the ideal scum action then for either of us would be to set up this LYLO environment as upon subbing in, it's pretty clear that we would have to win at this stage. Meaning we would need to set up all the remaining days to allow ourselves to win here.
Then this is the kicker. ISO's. Iso's are great tools yet. But what they are really meant to do is find instances of buddying/distancing and patterns. aka they are primarily useful when used to find connections between players. HOWEVER if that connection is broken. Then it becomes lost. For example, if we are at a point where we know the remaining scum would want to win a LYLO situation and their remaining partners, then we know that the scum would want to buss their buddies and have the ideal set up for an ISO while keeping people with inferior ISO's alive to be mislynched.
So in otherwords, consider the situation on the deeper level. Who'se game matches the scum win strat better? Someone who casts doubt on people who are scum or tries to not lynch them, or someone who tries to control the game by going for the bussing of all scum mates, and then ISO's everyone to illuminate why they could be lynched, all the while knowing that they need their ISO to be good for this stage of the game.
Seriously, there's actually an overwhelming amount of things that back this up if you want to double check
1. Proph's interactions on day 3 between lynching KOC vs XX.
This is honestly super damning. Yes, both are scum. But here's where proph's strategy of bussing all his scum mates gets hard, the order. Which is why this is perhaps the big slip for proph. On this lynch interaction, he is gunning to lynch KOC over XX
until Proph asks everyone to mass claim meaning that after that moment, XX is okay to be lynched because his role function is now useless and what do we see? After then Proph joins the XX wagon.
2. Proph's rejection of the live finish.
Besides just the live finishes being harder for the mafia. a live finish would also invalidate his strategy. To win, he needs to be able to show ISO's and he needs to be able to bait jalmont into doing ISO's because he already knows that when ISOing the both of us, my game looks scummier compared to him because I haven't been preparing to be in MYLO all game.
3. The leet/earlio lynch
Actually let's break this up
3.1 the leet lynch
Now this was something I called him on then. Proph's behavior of this lynch was super weird by pushing leet hard (who again, had been confirmed as a vanilla...) and then jumping off the wagon last minute.
but far more interestingly...
3.2 the earlio lynch
Vote Count 7.2
Earlio (1): Jalmont
Jalmont (1): Former Hope
Former Hope (2): Prophylaxis, 3P1K
Not Voting (2): Earlio, Haruno
With 6 alive, it is 4 to lynch.
Deadline in ~3 hours.
lynch earlio
Survival lynch but he's 3rd on my lynch list so yeah
If proph does trick you guys into this mislynch, my final request is to lynch proph tomorrow
Unvote
Actually going to reread a little bit while in class and make sure this is where I want to be
All these from page 93.
MoodyCloud this is why earlio got lynched over me. It's plain as day and night. As of vote count 7.2, I would have been lynched unless the then inactive earlio or haruno had interevened because I lose the tie as stated earlier. However, right after I vote to save myself,
proph unvote, then revotes - ensuring that earlio would be lynched instead of me and he covers this up by acting hesitatant. But look at what advantage this gives to scum proph. He can how push for me today (while allowing me some room to vote jalmont first) and say he wanted to lynch me yesteday, all the while manipulating things so that earlio would be lynched and I wouldn't.
and of course he's been helped all game by people pocketing him or tunneling me. Which in all fairness, at least with moody we've been feuding all game and I'm ngl, as either alignment I don't think he's had the best game here. But it's been these interactions which have let him set up this final 3 in a way that guarantees he has all the tools needed - because he's been playing this LYLO game from the moment he subbed in.