The NBA landscape has finally changed at the top. With the Golden State Death Lineup finally severed with the departure of Durant as well as an injury to Thompson, you can say for the first time in five years we can see a new western conference finals champion. With Leonard leaving Toronto, the East is wide-open for new faces to the Finals as well.
On a wide scale, there's a lot to consider this year. I think most of the questions people have in their minds right now are about the new formations such as LeBron/Davis, Harden/Westbrook, and Leonard/George.
Rookie of the Year favorite would have to be Zion, though one has to definitely think about the pre-season injury as well as if this guy is simply injury prone period. Michael Porter Jr, who was injured last year has had a full year of watching under his belt in addition to playing with Jokic. That'd be my honest bet for the best pick not named Williamson.
I personally wouldn't get too wacky with the Defensive Player of the Year, though. These awards are usually pretty predictable and consistent sans an injury. Gobert's favorite after winning the last two. Kawhi is clearly not going to put in a concentrated effort during the regular season, so that pretty much leaves.. who? Draymond Green? I think he's lost his motivational chops now. You could say there can be considerable jumps from a John Collins or something like that but... it's Gobert, folks.
I have two reasonable picks for MVP this year. The first one will be one that's unconventional even in today's times: Jokic. Jokic has all the ingredients to start his first MVP campaign: team continuity, a wide-open western conference, and numbers that blow your mind. He has a bit of a bias disadvantage from voters and fans I feel which I'd like to call euro-bias. Even in a scenario where he's perfectly equal with another candidate, they'll side with one who is more of an athlete through perception. Jokic for all intents and purposes even in his play on the court doesn't scream MVP, but the math certainly doesn't lie. If Denver can secure a top-three seed this year, Jokic has a legit shot at this.
Then there's Giannis (I refuse to type his last name consistently). He won MVP last year as I predicted. He also showed progress in improving his outside shooting even around the latter half of last season. There's no reason to expect him to be worse in an eastern conference now under his rule. He certainly has the stats, the perception, and the fan vote. You'd have to favor him slightly over Jokic.
Harden is a cool pick but he already lost to Giannis last year, and there's no telling how much of an adjustment is necessary to play with Westbrook. I also have this faint feeling that defenses are going to figure something out for this dude eventually.
I hear you Laker fans. DAVIS! DAVIS! DAVIS! No, no, no. Not when you playin' with LeBron James. I guess I can conceptualize LeBron conceding his stats for Davis to shine on the court but... I don't see it happening over the stretch for 82 games, unfortunately.
There are some talks of Curry getting this award but uh, have you seen Golden State's roster lately? I know Curry was amazing even before Durant, but the dude still needs shooters to be effective; especially after Vanfleet exposed how to actually defend him now.
Coach of the Year... hard to see repeats. I also don't think Doc is that great of a coach if he suddenly had a top seed with friggin' Kawhi Leonard. People are tired of D'Antoni's bullshit. That leaves... Malone. A fresh face. A new, rising star, and a potential top-seeded team.
Most Improved Player... I'm really feeling John Collins, y'all. Like, Trae Young and he are going to play more games and get more continuity. Dejonte Murray's been out for a year and is still young, so that's a recipe for a bounce-back performance as well. I'd say those are the favorites in my book.
Sixth man of the Year... yeah, not touching that one with a ten-foot pole.
Anyway, western conference.
“We all talk about this freedom of speech. Yes, we all do have freedom of speech, but at times there are ramifications for the negative that can happen when you’re not thinking about others, and you’re only thinking about yourself.” - LeBron James
(1) Denver Nuggets
(2) Houston Rockets
(3) Los Angeles Clippers
(4) Los Angeles Lakers
(5) Utah Jazz
(6) Portland Trailblazers
(7) Dallas Mavericks
(8) San Antonio Spurs
Your top picks are likely between Denver, Houston, and one of the Los Angeles teams (hehe). I hear you, Utah fans. There is room for improvement there. In fact, I was high on Utah for the past few years. Thing is, every time it feels like they should be a great high team, they under-perform in expectations. Them being more of a system team than the rest of the other top teams in the conference leads me to believe that they have the least likely chance of getting a top seed sans Mitchell becoming something of a star. Yeah, he's a star and definitely got top player material, but he's yet to have shown the ability to will games by his pace and style. Conley helps with a lot of things of course, and they have a bit of continuity. The star power of the West at the top though is hard to power through without your own clutch star once and while. Maybe if they shoot lights out over the regular season it won't matter much, but I don't see them getting say, a 1 or 2 seed. Maybe 3 tops.
I was high on Houston until I saw some of their preseason sets. I am... still high but.. slightly skeptical against the greater defenses. You can definitely expect coaches to lay off Westbrook each and every possession. How well Westbrook takes advantage of spot-up situations and being left open will determine how far this team goes. Even with Harden's supposed new shot. They look good, but I also have concerns.
Los Angeles Clippers are arguably the best team in the conference. Arguably. Kawhi Leonard brings a lot of intangibles, and their depth and defense is amazing. They're kinda like old Toronto but more scrappy with their own scrappy-style coach. They won't start off hot. They probably won't even get a top-seed, but they will be THE team to beat in this conference if you ask me. Once Leonard and George get over their offseason rest and healing, this team is poised for long streaks.
Los Angeles Lakers... yes.. you finally get your paragraph. Are you happy? Are you satisfied? Are you really satisfied needing an MVP caliber big man to make the playoffs after what, seven years? I bet you are.
What do they have to be happy about? Well, they have defensive scrappers, sure. Bradley and Green are great 3 and D dudes of the last decade. Davis is amazing to have on that end as well. I just have one question for this team: what are y'all going to do about point guard play?
No, I know LeBron has the ability to play point guard. Listen, I said this last year on why they wouldn't make the playoffs. I was right. LeBron is not a full-time point guard. He will be 35. Being a point guard is more than just dribbling and initiating plays. You also are expected to play defense on the other end which LeBron at his age is not going to do and you know it. The West; no, the league is filled with top point-guard talent roster to roster. Yes, you can put Bradley or Green on those top perimeter scorers but what about teams with multiple ones where LeBron can't hide? What about cross-matching? This team can still be great defensively. That point-guard spot though... I gotta tell ya, it needs to be filled. It can't be filled by LeBron.
Rondo's defensive point-guard numbers haven't been great for a few years now and most recently last year when he was an overall net negative value. It seems like the work will be more of a point guard by committee type of situation which is so Lakers. Remember when Lonzo went down and the team dropped like an anvil?
There are just so many questions about the point-guard situation offensively and defensively, and you know LeBron and Davis aren't meant to play all 82 games. Plus, their outside shooting this preseason is balls. When they're not shooting well, and they don't have a legit option at the 1 (and by legit I mean someone not turning 35, able to simultaneously defend and run offense), they are not going to be winning most nights I think. This is the type of team that's going to probably rely more on their individual stars on offense and steady defense to win games.. which.. puts them in the potential upper to mid-tier in the West.
Denver feels pretty primed to finally try and become that borderline contender their fans swear they are. Continuity, a star, young talent still developing, shooting, and some good defenders. Jokic proved in the playoffs that defenses can't just key in on him and do whatever they want anymore. That was big to me. I think he can truly become a serious building piece now. If he can manage to stay healthy and develop some more confidence in being a leader of the young group, one good streak is all it would really take to be a one seed. It's not far-fetched.
Portland has a moderate chance of making the playoffs but I don't see them netting a top-seed. Whiteside I don't trust. Plus, they lost some key wing defenders. They're still in a better place than many teams in the West but, they're in the middle of the pack a bit for me.
Golden State has lost Thompson and Durant. Golden State has a bunch of non-shooters. Golden State's depth is laughable. Golden State.. is not making the playoffs in my book. They could, but I predict they won't.
San Antonio, I don't know how you're going to do it this time. The game has still sped the hell up, you don't shoot many threes and instead long twos. Your game is an anti-thesis to the modern day offense. How are they going to do it at this year's conference, guys? My brain says no, but I honestly won't stop picking San Antonio until they simply don't make the playoffs. It's that simple. This is not even a fanboy pick. This is a pick holding the universe together as we speak. I'm sorry.
Can New Orleans make the playoffs? Not gonna lie, it's tempting. They have a nice mix of veterans and young talent. If they are indeed building the team around Zion, I don't think they get in the first year. Maybe they come close, but him being injury prone thus far and still, new body to the game makes me hesitant to put them in. Ingram and Lonzo are still really good players to surround Holidae with. I'd sneak them in San Antonio's place if the universe wasn't at stake.
Sacramento is sorta tempting too. They added some nice veteran pieces and keep Hield. I see them on the same level as New Orleans. Walton historically is a great youth coach. Eh, wouldn't surprise me if they made it.
Oklahoma City won't make it. Paul can't carry a team at that age. Even if he could, he's going to miss a ton of time. I like Gallinari but he's not a building piece. He's getting up there in age too. It's a nice team though.
Dallas... I absolutely fell in love with Doncic last year. Porizingis looks nice off of injury. They have space. They have a three-point shooting ball-handler and creator. They have shooters, some defenders, and a coach who can get the best out of an average squad. I think to me Dallas gets the edge over the younger squads because I like their team make-up better all the way to the coach. Three-point shooting, creation, and a shooting big man is enough to get you in the playoffs 99% of the time. The only way I see New Orleans or Sacramento being shoo-ins is if the chemistry is seamless or the talent is overwhelming.
Uh... yeah, everybody else sucks I guess.
“He’s still a great player, not a hall of famer yet, though.” Michael Jordan on Stephen Curry
(1) Milwaukee Bucks
(2) Philadelphia Sixers
(3) Toronto Raptors
(4) Brooklyn Nets
(5) Miami Heat
(6) Boston Celtics
(7) Detroit Pistons
(8) Indiana Pacers
As usual, the East is less interesting to me. It's simply a two-way race between Milwaukee and Philadelphia as middling teams scramble below them in whatever combination. I think the loss of Redick is huge, though. So is Brogdon for Milwaukee, but Milwaukee still maintained more of its core than Philadelphia. Not much to say about these two teams. Expect Milwaukee to hold up last year's performance in the regular season.
Toronto without Leonard is still a solid team. Building around Siakam is a solid idea. They're not contenders, but they're great in the East. Boston switches Irving/Horford for Kemba/Kanter... it's a negative to me. I love Kemba to death, though. Horford was really the MVP of this team in past few years. Kanter can't do as much, defend as well, or even score as much. Kemba is a better athlete than Kyrie, but I can't solidly say he's a tier ahead of him.
Brooklyn has many reasons to improve from last year even without Durant. LeVert didn't play much of the year, they have continuity, you add Kyrie, some defensive pieces, and you got a squad at least in the playoffs. Their placing is a bit of a mystery. I mean they aren't contenders, but they have the chops to smack you in the face a bit. Plenty scoring but the defense will decide how far they go. They need to figure out a better team plan than last year’s run-and-gun guard play.
Miami is interesting too and has reasons to improve. Many folks are picking them as a hidden sleeping beast in the East. I'd say with a decent year from Butler and Dragic, they're a step above the borderline teams and in the middling tier. Still well-coached, added star power, and Herro is nice.
Detroit and Indiana.. big question marks to me. Two borderline teams in my opinion. My opinion of Indiana shouldn't be too surprising, however. Without Oladipo and Young? ... What is this team going to do? I can only trust the scoring and defense by committee approach for so long. I just.. don't see how they're going to make it far this season unless Oladipo storms back and doesn't miss a beat.
I can trust Detroit a little bit more I guess. Honestly with them, you're really just hoping Rose makes a difference, Griffin stays healthy, and some young player makes a decent jump (I'm looking at you, Kennard). Which, to me, are way more likely to happen than a lot of the teams below them coming together with something.
So, good news Cleveland fans: The chances of this team having a historic worst defense in history two years in a row is extremely small. Kevin Love is healthy... for now. You may... not be the worst team this season. Woohoo!
Orlando... I guess they could take Indiana's spot. I don't know. Both teams are mediocre. I'm not pressed to predict them.
Everybody else sucks.