Now, i'm not one for creating topics or even posting, i'm a self-confessed lurker that has filled a post count from trading on the WiFi boards and giving occasional comments in recurring threads like, "Look at what I Bred" and the various RMTs. But, lurking I usually do, I found a very interesting Thread far back on Page 158. Whilst i did not want to revive it, upon seeing the result of a similiar ancient-post revival with the Thread getting locked and fellow words like necropost being thrown around, I did want to discuss it.
The Crystal Ball Thread was one, where members from a year ago would post their predictions on the D/P Metagame, taking guesses at what's to come in way of usage, tiers, playability, differences from other metagames, style of play among such things.
I do hope, this Thread will fall under "Something useful to contribute", bit just from me but from responses and future predictions. Well without further ado
Link to Original Thread
Link to Shoddy's usage statistics
I'll just be quickly summarising the points made by previous posters in a few lines, though i do suggest you look into the Thread for an in-depth read.
"Predictions by FAT Cromat (Summarised)"
The FAT part was just for fun, lol.
Ubers metagame becomes much more popular and significant.
Well, the rise in pokemon in the Ubers Tier has risen for one, with 6(?) new Ubers given to us. Recent giveaways from Jibaku (Groudon, Latias, Giratina), Kamikaen (Dialga) and countless others have also given the Ubers Metagame a boon and boost.
More and more, people are requesting Ubers Battles, to the creation of an "Uber Battle Me!" Thread in the WiFi sub-forum, Uber Warstories are becoming more popular and Shoddy has even seen a rise in the amount of people who've built and used Uber Teams.
I would like to say that this prediction has come true, though i must also say that Ubers are still a much neglected tier when compared to OU and even UU.
2vs2 is taken alot more seriously - and rightly so.
The 2vs2 Metagame has opened alot as well. RMTs for Double Battles are popping up, several tweaks and fixes implemented by GameFreak helped the cause, new and interesting pokemon have been introduced seemingly built for double battles (Cherrim, Regigigas etc.)
The semi-recent Gamestop events (i'm Australian so i'm not sure about this) declared double-battling as the competitive medium. Double Battles, like Ubers are definitely on the rise.
Gaburaisu dominates; whining ensues. -
For those who didn't own a Japanese copy of the Game, Gaburaisu is the japanese name for Garchomp, the land-shark. From what Shoddy's usage statistics as well as RMT Threads and Threat lists has told us, Garchomp does dominate the Metagame. With the 2nd most usage (weighted and unweighted), Garchomp is second only to Blissey in terms of popularity.
You didn't see him coming - Kabarudon.
Kabarudon = Hippowdon (I think, at least). Hippowdown has already proved itself as one of the most durable, reliable and toughest walls this generation. Eclipsing the ever-popular Skarmory in November, Hippowdon has been recognised a Threat (Do note, that Skarm has overtaken the Hippo in Decemeber statistics).
Status Ailments are more important.
One of the greatest, yet smallest Truth stated. With popular status moves like Will-o-Wisp and Thunder wave becoming TM's their usage has certainly increased. Not to mention the underrated Toxic Spikes that have come by and seen a surge of Tentacruel usage (Who can both lay and absorb). Despite the fear of Guts pokemon like Heracross, Ursaring and Milotic, status ailements are here to stay.
Double-status a strategy dating back to RBY had returned in more exotic forms. Before the strategy was mostly limited to Sleep Powder/Stun Spore but now pokemon like Gallade can induce Paralysis, Sleep and Burn. SingBliss has been created immediately shutting down threats. Togekiss also relies heavily on T-Wave to start it's job of hax.
Skarmbliss lives.
One of the few predictions, I disagree with. SkarmBliss, a potent defensive duo in RSE hasn't quite been shut down but it has become less popular. MixApe, CBCross and TyraniBoah forced people to pick new walls that could defend against these monsters. Cresselia, Spiritomb, Gliscor are just a few to mention.
"Predictions by FAT el B (Summarised)"
Stealth Rock:
Stealth rock is currently the most popular form of spiking (though the rise of T-spikes might change this). Even offensive teams that don't rely on Stall see the merits of Stealth Rock. It has shut down popular pokemon of last generation and hits alot of OU Threats for a 1/4 of their Hit points.
High risk, high reward?
Hypnosis, Stone Edge and Focus Blast are examples of High Risk, High Reward. Many people run these over classics like Rock slide and (I guess,) HP Fighting.
A "BL" Metagame:
This one was a pleasure to read. Given little mention and few comments, predicting the rise of a BL Metagame was an odd choice. Though from what we see on Shoddy, a BL Tier is placed within the Find Tab. People are requesting "BL/UU" Battles which would be the equivalent of asking for an "Uber/OU" Battle. RMTs have arisen with titles like, "Rate my BL and Below Team!" With the copius amount of pokemon shifted to the BL Tier (40+ at last count), there is certainly an opening and a chance for a serious and competitive BL Metagame.
Gimmicks, surprises and unpredictability:
Another nice one. Within the first few months, FEAR Rattatas were touted and used on WiFi Teams, easy to breed, easy to use. But "serious" and "competitive" gimmicks have come to light. Chain Chomp, CounterSash'ing and the most random Scarf'ers always manage to score a surprise-kill or two. And in the fast-paced metagame, losing a single pokemon can be your undoing.
"Predictions by FAT COalex (Summarised)"
Choice Bands skyrocket:
Choice Items have seen a rise, prediction is much more important these days but it's not Choice Bands that have seen a rise but Choice Scarfs. Now when seeing pokemon such as Heracross or PorygonZ, you musn't only be thinking... "I wonder whether what move he/she's gonna use?"
You must also be thinking of whether it's wearing a Scarf, and will outspeed and kill you.
RBY-esque standards:
I never played RBY competitively, but from what I know, the Metagame consisted of a pool of around 15 pokemon (each pokemon also carrying the same movest) that everybody used. I'm glad to say, that D/P doesn't use RBY Standards. Originality is very valuable, along the lines of unpredictablity. Also several pokemon now have several, very varying sets that are played and countered by completely different pokemon.
"Predictions by FAT Misty (Summarised)"
People will be surprised by how DP OU turns out:
True. At first everyone thought D/P would announce the death of Stall. Whilst the Metagame is still shifting, a very large period of Stall has risen. Obi's team partially being the inspiration, but he proved that Stalling was still a viable and dangerous tactic in D/P.
2v2 probably won't get the respect it deserves, but those who take a chance on it will be pleasantly surprised:
Covered above.
Ubers will be interesting but probably not any more than Advance:
Covered above.
UU will be awesome. No doubt about it:
I don't play UU, but from what i've seen it does look like a lot of fun. As the tiers are still being arranged, UU has seen little community-wide play. Though there are a dedicated few and I am starting see a few more UU players on Shoddy, a few more UU pokemon on the WiFi boards and few more UUs inhabiting OU.
"Predictions by FAT CT20 (Summarised)"
Reversalers:
Besides Lucario, i've seen a dramatic lack of Reversalers in D/P. Sandstream, new and more often-used versions of quick attack and Hail can be attributed to the lack of Reversal/Flail.
Revenge Killers
Dugtrio and the boosted Pursuit helps alot when it comes to revenge-killing. Also residual damage from Spikes and Stealth Rock, that not only weakens pokemon into being susceptible to the aformentioned threats also prevent large amounts of switching forcibly making them stay in.
Spiking
Mentioned above in stall-related predictions.
"Predictions by FAT DevilinDenial (Summarised)"
You'll never see it coming, Togekiss.
Togekiss is quite a lethal force. It can be EV'd as a wall, as a para-flinching sweeper, was given some of the best support options in Wish, BP, Nasty Plot.
No switch will be free.
How true this is. Even teams that are designed to absorb weakness and take only a tiny bit of damage from a switch-in are ravaged by external factors. Several pokemon, can in fact be defeated if you add the residual of Stealth Rock to the mix. In fact, when running damage calcs. alot of people add in potential damage from Stealth Rock to "Guarantee the KO".
"Predictions by FAT Great Sage (Summarised)"
Gaburiasu + Tyranitar rape:
Whenever you see a Tyranitar, a Garchomp is sure to pop up. These 2 have a reason for being at the top of nearly every Threat List. Both are insane physical sweepers that can break through whole teams. Not to mention they can both run very effective mixed sets that can work independently, not only destroying the usual counters.
Sleep/Freeze/Paralyzed Sweepers=dead:
Whenever I see a pokemon on Shoddy get frozen or fall asleep, I make a mental note. Death Fodder. Rest/Talk has become a strong strategy to counter sleep clause, but freeze is very deadly and can't actually be claused in a WiFi environment. A paralyzed sweeper may still have some use, but a sleeping one or a frozen one, should never be left in, in the chance of waking up or defrosting. The current Metagame is far too fast to take the risk.
OK, i've probably said enough, though there were several more predictions and posts above, but I think i've got the gist of most the Thread.
Please post on which you predictions have been the most accurate and justified or even just your own predictions on the future of the Metagame.
Thanks for reading through.
The Crystal Ball Thread was one, where members from a year ago would post their predictions on the D/P Metagame, taking guesses at what's to come in way of usage, tiers, playability, differences from other metagames, style of play among such things.
I do hope, this Thread will fall under "Something useful to contribute", bit just from me but from responses and future predictions. Well without further ado
Link to Original Thread
Link to Shoddy's usage statistics
I'll just be quickly summarising the points made by previous posters in a few lines, though i do suggest you look into the Thread for an in-depth read.
"Predictions by FAT Cromat (Summarised)"
The FAT part was just for fun, lol.
Ubers metagame becomes much more popular and significant.
Well, the rise in pokemon in the Ubers Tier has risen for one, with 6(?) new Ubers given to us. Recent giveaways from Jibaku (Groudon, Latias, Giratina), Kamikaen (Dialga) and countless others have also given the Ubers Metagame a boon and boost.
More and more, people are requesting Ubers Battles, to the creation of an "Uber Battle Me!" Thread in the WiFi sub-forum, Uber Warstories are becoming more popular and Shoddy has even seen a rise in the amount of people who've built and used Uber Teams.
I would like to say that this prediction has come true, though i must also say that Ubers are still a much neglected tier when compared to OU and even UU.
2vs2 is taken alot more seriously - and rightly so.
The 2vs2 Metagame has opened alot as well. RMTs for Double Battles are popping up, several tweaks and fixes implemented by GameFreak helped the cause, new and interesting pokemon have been introduced seemingly built for double battles (Cherrim, Regigigas etc.)
The semi-recent Gamestop events (i'm Australian so i'm not sure about this) declared double-battling as the competitive medium. Double Battles, like Ubers are definitely on the rise.
Gaburaisu dominates; whining ensues. -
For those who didn't own a Japanese copy of the Game, Gaburaisu is the japanese name for Garchomp, the land-shark. From what Shoddy's usage statistics as well as RMT Threads and Threat lists has told us, Garchomp does dominate the Metagame. With the 2nd most usage (weighted and unweighted), Garchomp is second only to Blissey in terms of popularity.
You didn't see him coming - Kabarudon.
Kabarudon = Hippowdon (I think, at least). Hippowdown has already proved itself as one of the most durable, reliable and toughest walls this generation. Eclipsing the ever-popular Skarmory in November, Hippowdon has been recognised a Threat (Do note, that Skarm has overtaken the Hippo in Decemeber statistics).
Status Ailments are more important.
One of the greatest, yet smallest Truth stated. With popular status moves like Will-o-Wisp and Thunder wave becoming TM's their usage has certainly increased. Not to mention the underrated Toxic Spikes that have come by and seen a surge of Tentacruel usage (Who can both lay and absorb). Despite the fear of Guts pokemon like Heracross, Ursaring and Milotic, status ailements are here to stay.
Double-status a strategy dating back to RBY had returned in more exotic forms. Before the strategy was mostly limited to Sleep Powder/Stun Spore but now pokemon like Gallade can induce Paralysis, Sleep and Burn. SingBliss has been created immediately shutting down threats. Togekiss also relies heavily on T-Wave to start it's job of hax.
Skarmbliss lives.
One of the few predictions, I disagree with. SkarmBliss, a potent defensive duo in RSE hasn't quite been shut down but it has become less popular. MixApe, CBCross and TyraniBoah forced people to pick new walls that could defend against these monsters. Cresselia, Spiritomb, Gliscor are just a few to mention.
"Predictions by FAT el B (Summarised)"
Stealth Rock:
Stealth rock is currently the most popular form of spiking (though the rise of T-spikes might change this). Even offensive teams that don't rely on Stall see the merits of Stealth Rock. It has shut down popular pokemon of last generation and hits alot of OU Threats for a 1/4 of their Hit points.
High risk, high reward?
Hypnosis, Stone Edge and Focus Blast are examples of High Risk, High Reward. Many people run these over classics like Rock slide and (I guess,) HP Fighting.
A "BL" Metagame:
This one was a pleasure to read. Given little mention and few comments, predicting the rise of a BL Metagame was an odd choice. Though from what we see on Shoddy, a BL Tier is placed within the Find Tab. People are requesting "BL/UU" Battles which would be the equivalent of asking for an "Uber/OU" Battle. RMTs have arisen with titles like, "Rate my BL and Below Team!" With the copius amount of pokemon shifted to the BL Tier (40+ at last count), there is certainly an opening and a chance for a serious and competitive BL Metagame.
Gimmicks, surprises and unpredictability:
Another nice one. Within the first few months, FEAR Rattatas were touted and used on WiFi Teams, easy to breed, easy to use. But "serious" and "competitive" gimmicks have come to light. Chain Chomp, CounterSash'ing and the most random Scarf'ers always manage to score a surprise-kill or two. And in the fast-paced metagame, losing a single pokemon can be your undoing.
"Predictions by FAT COalex (Summarised)"
Choice Bands skyrocket:
Choice Items have seen a rise, prediction is much more important these days but it's not Choice Bands that have seen a rise but Choice Scarfs. Now when seeing pokemon such as Heracross or PorygonZ, you musn't only be thinking... "I wonder whether what move he/she's gonna use?"
You must also be thinking of whether it's wearing a Scarf, and will outspeed and kill you.
RBY-esque standards:
I never played RBY competitively, but from what I know, the Metagame consisted of a pool of around 15 pokemon (each pokemon also carrying the same movest) that everybody used. I'm glad to say, that D/P doesn't use RBY Standards. Originality is very valuable, along the lines of unpredictablity. Also several pokemon now have several, very varying sets that are played and countered by completely different pokemon.
"Predictions by FAT Misty (Summarised)"
People will be surprised by how DP OU turns out:
True. At first everyone thought D/P would announce the death of Stall. Whilst the Metagame is still shifting, a very large period of Stall has risen. Obi's team partially being the inspiration, but he proved that Stalling was still a viable and dangerous tactic in D/P.
2v2 probably won't get the respect it deserves, but those who take a chance on it will be pleasantly surprised:
Covered above.
Ubers will be interesting but probably not any more than Advance:
Covered above.
UU will be awesome. No doubt about it:
I don't play UU, but from what i've seen it does look like a lot of fun. As the tiers are still being arranged, UU has seen little community-wide play. Though there are a dedicated few and I am starting see a few more UU players on Shoddy, a few more UU pokemon on the WiFi boards and few more UUs inhabiting OU.
"Predictions by FAT CT20 (Summarised)"
Reversalers:
Besides Lucario, i've seen a dramatic lack of Reversalers in D/P. Sandstream, new and more often-used versions of quick attack and Hail can be attributed to the lack of Reversal/Flail.
Revenge Killers
Dugtrio and the boosted Pursuit helps alot when it comes to revenge-killing. Also residual damage from Spikes and Stealth Rock, that not only weakens pokemon into being susceptible to the aformentioned threats also prevent large amounts of switching forcibly making them stay in.
Spiking
Mentioned above in stall-related predictions.
"Predictions by FAT DevilinDenial (Summarised)"
You'll never see it coming, Togekiss.
Togekiss is quite a lethal force. It can be EV'd as a wall, as a para-flinching sweeper, was given some of the best support options in Wish, BP, Nasty Plot.
No switch will be free.
How true this is. Even teams that are designed to absorb weakness and take only a tiny bit of damage from a switch-in are ravaged by external factors. Several pokemon, can in fact be defeated if you add the residual of Stealth Rock to the mix. In fact, when running damage calcs. alot of people add in potential damage from Stealth Rock to "Guarantee the KO".
"Predictions by FAT Great Sage (Summarised)"
Gaburiasu + Tyranitar rape:
Whenever you see a Tyranitar, a Garchomp is sure to pop up. These 2 have a reason for being at the top of nearly every Threat List. Both are insane physical sweepers that can break through whole teams. Not to mention they can both run very effective mixed sets that can work independently, not only destroying the usual counters.
Sleep/Freeze/Paralyzed Sweepers=dead:
Whenever I see a pokemon on Shoddy get frozen or fall asleep, I make a mental note. Death Fodder. Rest/Talk has become a strong strategy to counter sleep clause, but freeze is very deadly and can't actually be claused in a WiFi environment. A paralyzed sweeper may still have some use, but a sleeping one or a frozen one, should never be left in, in the chance of waking up or defrosting. The current Metagame is far too fast to take the risk.
OK, i've probably said enough, though there were several more predictions and posts above, but I think i've got the gist of most the Thread.
Please post on which you predictions have been the most accurate and justified or even just your own predictions on the future of the Metagame.
Thanks for reading through.
