Willdbeast'sSuperExcitingMysteryDraftPriceGuessingBonanza4.0 Results
I was right to be optimistic about this year's Bonanza with this being by far the most tightly fought and highly skilled guessing seen so far in OMPL.
In an astonishing result a record number of five(!) players correctly guessed their price, so congratulations to
The Number Man,
XxLazzerpenguinxX,
baconeatinassassin,
swag god and myself. Truly the deep analysis and skilful prediction displayed here was on another level to what we've seen before and is surely a sign of the great performance these players will put in for the rest of the tournament.
Also a shoutout to
PandaDoux who almost made it with an admirable guess of only 500 credits off their draft price.
Overall players slightly overestimated their draft price, with eight guessing above their auction price and only two guessing below it for an average error of 719 credits above true price.
The worst prediction this year belonged to
Career Ended with a result that would have been middle of the field in previous years, being only 3.5k off.
Team Rankings:
8.
:necrozma-ultra: Photon Geezers:
With no price guesses, correct or otherwise, I have some serious concerns for this team. The general apathy shown by these players indicates that motivation will be low and the level of preparation will leave a lot to desired. Not really any redeeming factors for this team unlike all the others above them on this list so I don't expect much from them.
7.
:tyranitar: The Terrible Tyrants
Unlike previous years the competition is a lot closer, with even the number 7 team having a reasonable performance in the art of prediction. Both career ended and fissure made guesses for this team and compared to the past iterations their performance was quite respectable. However the field is tougher than ever with a number of extremely tough opponents. They also have the issue of their manager Drampa, no doubt due to his senility, not understanding the rules of the competition and once again making the mistake of submitting a guess as a manager - despite the strong criticism he received for doing the same thing two years ago. However unlike the Geezers this team has at least shown a strong effort (even if it is misdirected) which could translate into some good results.
6.
:flutter mane: Fluttermania
This year the middle of the field is extremely tight and the Flutters can easily finish a few spots higher than this if they capitalise on their strengths throughout the tour. With two guesses, both a respectable 2k from the draft price, they have some solid. Most notable is their star player Atha who as well as being a good AAA player is (more importantly) a capable guesser, being only 10% off. He's supported by the late pick bored_glitch who is enough to nudge them above the Tyrants.
5.
:virizion: W VIRIZZIONS
With two solid guesses being 1.5 and 2k off against quite high prices this team has really solid potential and should perform better than the three teams below them. There is also a lot of synergy in this draft with city underestimating their price and pannu overestimating theirs if they can work together and cover each other's weaknesses they could go further in this tournament than the raw numbers might imply. Overall a very solid draft but not quite the star potential of the following teams.
4.
:solgaleo: Soul-Stealing Seven-Star Solgaleos
Starting out the top half of the rankings is perhaps a bit of a controversial choice, with their top player Bacon making a perfect guess. This alone makes the team a force to be reckoned with. However it's always risky to rely on a single player for a team's performance so due to this factor I can't rank them above the remaining teams who have a more well rounded roster.
3.
:wigglytuff: Wiggly Family
The #2 and #3 spots are incredibly close this year so these teams could easily finish in either position, however the Wigglies narrowly miss out on the top two. With one perfect guess from Swag God and a good performance from ojr being 2k away they have a formidable core. However their star play Swag was only on a 3k bid which makes the correct prediction slightly less impressive and they only have two players which, while being much more reliable than the one of the Solgs, does leave some chances for a bad week if one or both of them doesn't put in their best. It's a testament to the increasing level of play that such a strong squad isn't in the top two, but they are still a team to be feared.
2.
:gholdengo: Gods as Ghold
Beating out the Wigglies to the top two are the Gholds who don't quite have the top players of the Wigglies or Solgs but make up for it with an extremely well rounded draft of three players all making very solid predictions. Most notable is PandaDoux being as close to perfect as it gets with a slim 0.5k error. They're backed up by the supporting player Ivar with guess just 1 away. This team is made even more threatening by the presence of former GuessingBonanza champion Chessking who made a solid start to this OMPL with a 1.5k error but is someone whose past performances hint at a higher potential if they can get into the swing of it properly, potentially being a bigger threat as the tourney goes on as he gets over some rust from not predicting prices for a couple of years.
1.
:dubwool: Dubwool Entendres
While there are a number of scary teams this year there's really no question which team made the best drafts this year. The Dubwools have an unrivalled three correct predictions from Sevag, TNM and willdbeast. Sevag comes back from his win in the previous Bonanza and isn't showing any signs of slowing down, predicting with pinpoint accuracy his 9.5k draft price and bring unrivalled consistency which will be hard to match. TNM is a newcomer to the prediction meta but has shown a remarkable aptitude with the strongest performance of the year, calling his 13.5k price and showing that he can go toe to toe with even the most experienced price guessers. The team is rounded out by willdbeast who doesn't quite bring the flashy predictions of their teammates but can support with their solid 3k correct prediction. Overall this team is by far the most effective prediction squad the tournament has even seen and should be the clear favourite going forwards.
Thanks everyone for taking part (even
drampa's grandpa) , hopefully it was a bit of fun!