Just because I'm not confident with math~
Situation: Armaldo is holding a metronome and using STAB Fury Cutter
How powerful is this attack when it maxes out?
How many turns does it take to max out?
At 95% accuracy for the move, what is the chance of successfully landing the necessary amount of moves required to max out the damage?
Metronome give a cumulative +10% each time the attack is selected after the first, whether it hits or not, up to a total of 200% (21 selections of the move). Fury Cutter doubles in power each time it hits to a maximum of 160 (5 hits). So basically, if you use the move 21 or more times and the last 5 hit, you end up with the absolute maximum damage it can output:
160 base Power x 3 (+200%) x 1.5 (STAB) = 720 Base poewr.
This will only happen after landing 5 consecutive hits, with the last hit falling on the 21st+ turn the move is used. The chance to land 5 consecutive hits is .95^5 = 77.4%. I could probably tell you the chance of getting that before the PP of the move runs out with max PP, but I'm lazy.
also, as a follow up on this, does the extra 10% on each successive turn from metronome ultimately outweigh the boost from choice band, for instance?
i guess this isn't really a simple question... sorry :-)
i just like thinking about things like this even though it probably has zero practical application
After 6 consecutive selections of the attack, it will outweigh CB's boost. But if you are using a move with constant power, it takes longer than that to equalize. Say you use a move with 100 power. Here is a chart comparing metronome's base power to CB's:
Turn Metronome Metronome Total Choice Band Choice Band Total
1 100 100 150 150
2 110 210 150 300
3 120 330 150 450
4 130 460 150 600
5 140 600 150 750
6 150 750 150 900
7 160 910 150 1050
8 170 1080 150 1200
9 180 1260 150 1350
10 190 1450 150 1500
11 200 1650 150 1650
12 210 1860 150 1800
So as you see, for a normal attack, it takes 12 consecutive attacks for Metronome to outweigh Choice Band (though it does give you the opportunity to switch attacks, though you lose the bonus in this case). However, if you are talking Fury Cutter, things get even more wacky due to the variable output, but I think it takes even longer.
Given that it would take in excess of three turns to get the move to the same power as if Armaldo were holding a Choice Band and you have to keep using the move to get it to that power (which you'd be doing with Choice Band anyway), the Metronome is just not worth it. Choice Band might be outweighed after about 10 turns, but when has anyone kept using the same damaging move on the same pokemon for 10 consecutive turns?
Now for a question of my own: Is a team of 6 bog standard pokemon with bog standard sets the only way to succeed in competitive battling, or is it possible to have a more creative team that still works brilliantly in competitive play?
It is possible to do semi-well with "creative" movesets, but keep in mind that the number one reason to use them is the surprise factor, and that wears off if everyone knows your team because you're in the top 10 or whatever.
