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You either don't have an internet connection (which you obviously do right now), or you are missing part of an application extension. I would suggest re-downloading PO, or seeing if you trashed any of the files.
 
Where can I find usage statistics for Gen 5 on Pokemon Online/Smogon university, etc.

I apologize if this is the wrong thread to ask this question in though.
 
I'm concerned about two specific statistical issues:
1. The percentage of successful protects following an already successful protect the last turn.
2. The true accuracy of Leaf Storm on PO

Is there somewhere I can address these concerns?
 
Well here I something I noticed with Protect. If last turn, you didn't use it, it will always work. If you didn't use it any of the last two turns, it will work twice in a row. Also, the "true accuracy" is the same as all the other moves :/
 
Interesting assertion on the twice protect in the row. It shouldn't be that way; having a guaranteed protect is fine if you didn't use it last turn, but two guaranteed protects is never o.k. Also, the "true percentage" is the accuracy with a 95% confidence interview in my view. The last couple days, Leaf storm has missed so many times on my Jalorda (way more than 10%) that I wish there was some way to test or study it.
 

Zephyr

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I'm not exaggerating when I say someone has successfully used Protect on me 4 consecutive times during a PO match, I don't know the odds, but that's interesting.
 

Athenodoros

Official Smogon Know-It-All
It is not interesting. People use Protect a lot, and statistically it is assured that you will get long streaks if people use it like that. If people used it like that and never got four in a row, then there might be a bug.

EDIT: Ignore this paragraph.
 
I'm not exaggerating when I say someone has successfully used Protect on me 4 consecutive times during a PO match, I don't know the odds, but that's interesting.
Same: there was one time where I was sweeping through an entire team with Choice Scarfed Jalorda. It came down to Jalorda vs. Politoed with me having 5 pps on Leaf Storm. The opponent subsequently protected the entire 5 pps. Kinda sad when you think about it. I still think protect should be guaranteed to fail after the first successful attempt (as a general mechanic, not just on PO).

@Athenodoros
It is true protect is one of the most used moves. However, people usually only use it once and then change moves, not wanting to risk the failure possibility. Thus, the sample size of two or more back-to-back protects is actually quite small which is why I wish a statistical study be done on it.
 

supermarth64

Here I stand in the light of day
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Blah blah blah law of large numbers.

Basically you can't expect the mean outcome to happen over such a small, isolated situation. Across the entire server, the numbers balance out. Your case is just too small.

Additionally, 4 Protects would be 1 * 1/2 * 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/8. There was some miscommunication as to the probability previously, but the movepage was updated a while ago to fix this.
 

Zephyr

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It's still annoying chances, and I have heard it cuts in half each time, so I was never sure which one it was.(either way 4 consecutively is damn lucky)
 

Engineer Pikachu

Good morning, you bastards!
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It's still annoying chances, and I have heard it cuts in half each time, so I was never sure which one it was.(either way 4 consecutively is damn lucky)
The total chance of your Protect-string working gets cut in half everytime you use it (and try to extend your string). The chance of each individual one doesn't, so the chance of 4 protects working in a row would be equivalent to the chance of getting a critical hit.
 
My friend was telling me in class one day how he got 7 protects off in a row. I didn't believe him but later that day I faced him, and he got 8 in a row.

Something is weird with the proc percentages.
 
Where is the Smogon server on PO? I was just on last night, now it's gone... Is it being updated with the results of the suspect tests or something?
 

Athenodoros

Official Smogon Know-It-All
About Protect:
Can we finish this? All these stories prove is that people do try for long strings of Protect, which is the least likely requirement for it to happen. Given people do it, it will inevitably succeed a lot. If it makes you feel better, people have tried to do the same thing to me, and it has failed on the second Protect. It is to be expected.

And yes, the server is down now. It will be up again soon, it is probably just being updated with the new banlist.
 

Zephyr

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I just previously remembered on things like wifi and shoddy, that you were damn lucky to even pull a second off, third was unheard of, but now apparently 4+ isn't even surprising.

Also yes, smogon server is simply down at the moment.
 
Hello,

1. what is the name of online java competitive battling for pokemon (the one with 5th gen)??
2. Where can I download it?

Havnt been online in a while, and I forgot my username and password. my old one is only for 4th gen

edit: nvm found it :)
 
Ok to clarify this Protect confusion, this is how it works.

1st turn: 100% chance of it working.
2nd turn: 50% chance
all the following turns also have 50% chance ok.

-CASE CLOSED-
 

Athenodoros

Official Smogon Know-It-All
I think you have misunderstood the argument. We all know the probabilities, it is just that some people think that the 1/8 chance of four in a row should NEVER EVER EVER happen. It should happen. And yes, you were lucky to get a second or third one off. You still are.
 
I have a question regarding RNGing for a Pokemon.

I am currently engaging in the Double-Tapping process (1,149 Double-Taps on this occurrence), and I am wondering while double-tapping you accidentally click on one of the juxtaposing pokemon if it affects the amount of Double-Taps that you are attempting to get.

Thank you for any and all speedy or sluggish response!

And have a nice day!
 

Zephyr

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is a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Researcher Alumnusis a Contributor Alumnusis a Battle Simulator Moderator Alumnus
I have a question regarding RNGing for a Pokemon.

I am currently engaging in the Double-Tapping process (1,149 Double-Taps on this occurrence), and I am wondering while double-tapping you accidentally click on one of the juxtaposing pokemon if it affects the amount of Double-Taps that you are attempting to get.

Thank you for any and all speedy or sluggish response!

And have a nice day!
Allow me to redirect you to here:http://www.smogon.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=53
 
I'm typing in my server password correctly, but for some reason it is not letting me into the server. I tried redownloading PO to attempt to reset the password, but no luck. Can anyone help me out?
 
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