I townread LW and Daenym because they bring up things that could really help the village gain an advantage potentially.
LW prompted Blue Tornado to clear up any confusion about the miller, and Daenym was the first person to really analyze it well to see if we should go through with it.
I think that if either of them were mafian, they would have seen if they could have gotten away with not posting things that could really give the village a new thing to potentially exploit. This is really town I think. We could have been left in the dark and have to gone off of just reads, but they introduce some new ideas that could have potentially made things easier.
I know that either of them could very well be doing it to gain favor with the village as a mafian, but I always go with the simplest explanation. I never over complicate things in games like this.
If you look scummy, and the day calls for a lynch, you will get my vote
Walrein seem scummy to me because Walrein hasnt really done much but barely expand on what other people say and disagrees with good plans like the NL plan. I also didnt like how when daenym called him out on one of his posts he just said it was a joke post.
Getting a pretty town read on Daenym, but I suppose that's not much different from anyone else right now. The first person to post significant reads and analysis, steering us out of a rut we were in after the miller thing died.
I'm getting the feeling of "posts enough for us to think they're contributing when they're not doing too much" from Yeti and Lightwolf, and a bit from TIK until his most recent posts, where he actually posted a few reads. These are usually where the scummiest people lie, at least in my opinion. I'll keep my vote on yeti for now I suppose.
Houndoomsday I feel pretty noob-town, but I'm not really sure on this. I almost always read noob-town on newer players, which is probably a weakness of mine. If more people could post opinions on him, it'd help me form a better one for myself.
Aura Guardian seems all over the place. I mean even his latest post is basically "i did feel this, but then this happened so my opinion changed". This isn't a horrible thing in and of itself, but that post didn't really have much else significant beside his Daenym read. I'm not 100% sold he is scum because I feel like he's doing his normal routine, but who knows.
Walrein I'm not sold on either. I see a lot of posts where he says "this guy hasn't said much I'd like to see more from him". I usually see this as the above category where Yeti and Lightwolf fall. Basically a "fake contribution". I agree with TIK on how he is echoing others a lot.
I don't really have a lot of strong opinions yet because its day 1 and we don't have any flips to work off of. I'd really like to see some stuff out of Yeti, Lightwolf, and Walrein though, because most of their contributions seem pretty light.
So BT's votecount was an hourish ago, leaving less than 7 hours until deadline.
My vote on Walrein still stands. I don't know that he really did anything to assuage my concerns over the perceived scumminess in his direct reply to me (post 113), and since then he's really only made inconsequential posts and a few activity prods.
So that's how I feel about that. It's hardly proof, but D1 lynches never have those.
I know most of you don't want to no-lynch today, but if nobody reaches majority, which is 5 votes, it will be a no-lynch. Nobody has ever had more than 2 votes on them. I'm just trying to gauge if you folks would rather pile onto someone who you're not that sure on, or would settle on the no lynch. Personally, I'm a staunch supporter of the no-lynch, so I wouldn't mind nobody reaching majority, but I want to hear the opinions of the crowd.
so i was staying up to see if there were going to be any last minute pushes, and nothing happening for around 4 hours. i have a soccer game tomorrow and i dont want to be up until 3 am, so im going to head to bed in like 10 minutes
uh i dont really know what to do with my vote so unvote i suppose, if anyone has an issue with that post in the next 10 minutes or so or forever hold you peace
TIK: attempts to take some charge by pointing out the EpicMafia crap (28), analyzes mislynch and cop worth (35), echoes zorbees and expands on his pro-nl stance (47), disagrees with AG and again supports nl (51), more support for nl and the pressure it brings (54-55), claims his nl vote was tossed in without much care (59), again agrees with zorbees and qqs nobody paid attn to his nl talk (74), copies what I said re: (lack of) miller cc without acknowledging I posted (85), patronizes HDD (101), read LW/Daenym as town and Walrein as scummy (128-129).
so if we say we have about 110-5 posts of game-related discussion, TIK has only made 3 (I think) since BT made his change regarding the miller, and since the NL discussion tapered off, he has had much shorter posts. Personally I find his actions a bit suspicious. He had a bunch of big contributions when he could act very pro-town, encouraging a NL to give us the opportunity to mislynch later (since the mafia would want to lynch now and get an enemy out of the way, right?) and encouraging miller CC as well as trying to help our essentially-useless cop get their results. His actions are almost too planned to appear pro-village, and once his ability to spout off about them vanished, his contributions severely declined. He then cast shade onto Walrein right after Daenym calling him out for copying what Daenym has said (multiple times).
If TIK is mafia I somewhat doubt LW, Daenym or Walrein are his partners. I think he claimed 2 people he knows are village are clean to gain their trust of his reads and cast suspicion onto someone he knows isn't on his team.
AG: says BG shouldn't be counted on to aim right (34), disagrees strongly with NL talk so early and votes TIK (49), again says he doesn't like no pressure if NL is decided so early (52), cop probability (67&70), finally backs off TIK-being-scummy (75), post-miller cop-out post (95), suggests HDD-Walrein mafia and suspicion on LW (102), retracts Walrein accusation but tentatively still suspects LW/HDD (108), cop-out post again retracting HDD suspicion and kinda-sorta-maybe suspicion onto Daenym (122/4).
AG has posted a lot of short posts where he makes somewhat aggressive stances towards others, but he refuses to really commit with his words towards suspicions, instead using mafia term FoS, but he doesn't really put any weight behind his words. he also called out Walrein, like TIK did, then retracted his claim. both of them have somewhat-village reads on Daenym as well. AG's posts seem all over the place and lack content, he's just shuffling the spotlight onto someone besides him, and his early disagreement with how soon TIK was suggesting the no lynch just let TIK go on his big posting spree and talk a lot.
I stand by my suspicion of an AG/TIK team, notice how neither user has once responded to a post of mine in particular even when I made a post about AG's aggressiveness, he just ignored it, and both seem happy to call out Walrein, who 99% of the time in NOCs comes off as scum regardless of his actual alliance. Iunno, just feels like AG has tried to feed TIK a relatively easy town discussion and then both have had crappy posts since the NL and miller were decided.
LW: wants clarity on miller implying he isn't the cop, miller or mafia to have asked privately what BT says itt after (38), short post about lynch objective (46), agrees with AG for longer day (56), knee-jerk vote for zorbees about lynch (58), claims has calculations and wants miller to claim but saying more helps the mafia (88/90), responds to AG suspicion that he's disagreed personally with zorbees (103).
LW has posted virtually nothing, I don't think he's had a post that spans more than 3 lines and has given no actual reads on players. I have been calling for more contributions from him for several posts now, along with HDD, and HDD has actually made an effort to type some crap. While I would find this suspicious I don't think LW is retarded enough to be mafia and continually dodge prods unless he knows no other villagers are paying him any attention besides me since everyone else seems content to let him get off with these nonexistent contributions. Though I don't want to lynch him at this time, I have placed my vote on him for these reasons. I want something out of him that's lengthy and actually gives us smth, but I think the day will end before he wakes up =\ oh well.
HDD: leans toward lynching today but points out his inexperience (30), cop-math-talk (37), again supports d1 lynch (44), doesn't want early day end or no pressure today (61), more lynch-miller-mafia-etc maths (66), squabble with zorbees over d1 lynch (72), cop-out of content from miller change and changes to nl support and bit of suspicion onto TIK (99), responds to AG's accusations with defenses of himself and wants votes to pressure (104), acknowledges his content has been lacking but excuses don't fly, calls out AG for his jumpy accusations, supports me/Daenym as town, calls out TIK/LW's lack of recent content (120), was looking for lynches to perhaps bandwagon (138).
typical newbie looking to not get himself into trouble when dealing with the big boys (and girl tyvm). HDD has actually made more posts than I thought he did but his content is shaky - he's at least covered a range of topics though ranging from lynch, miller math, and some reads. If he is mafia I have to ask, who is his partner and why didn't they stop him from supporting the D1 lynch when most people were saying it would be scummy to support this? iunno he's had a couple things that make me question why his partner isn't trying to control what he says better if he is mafia, which makes me wonder if they have conflicting timezones/times they are on (LW then). HDD is at least making an effort to contribute BUT he does use the excuse he's new and agrees too much with other players as a cop out for more detailed content. honestly I would have to say I look like his most likely partner just bc I wasn't particularly set either way regarding no lynching or (mis)lynching D1 so if I was his partner I wouldn't have told him to just agree with me that a NL is the best thing for the village so we look cleaner, and he also had a positive read of me. tbh I think he's just a villager struggling to avoid saying something that'll get him in trouble.
HDD if you haven't gone to bed yet I'd like some words from you re: Walrein, AG and zorbees. how do you take their interactions with others and your current reads.
I'll do my views on the other 3 later it's kinda boring to sort through all these pages x.x
Yeti ill post some very quick reads of them, if you want more on any specific id be happy to provide them early d2 but i was literally about to head to bed haha, thanks for actually giving me something specific to write about
Walrein: started off pushing for lynch right away, then does a turn around later when he suggests that we nl if we cant find a scummy target. posts good miller logic, then some small posts about how everyone should talk about specific players (which is weird because he didnt up until after that point). honestly in the beginning he was posting good logic, but from page 3 on it seems to be a lot of posts containing little besides prods, and small corrections/comments, which is a good way to look like you are contributing more than you actually are. overall giving me some weird vibes because of that
AG: thought he pretty much immediate u-turn on his suspicion of me was weird, but to be fair it was a really weak suspicion ("you changed your mind, must be scum!"). hes been scattered, which is weird because what ive seen of him he is general one of the more logical and collected players. not a great contributor so far but ill wait and see as maybe it was really a headache or w/e
zorbees: starts the game off with some small posts, which are somewhat useful but obviously not sufficient. his first major post (#62), has a lot of math and not much else. im not going to rehash the argument but right now, with 8 players, 5 of them non-vanilla, simple math equations is not really sufficient for modeling the game, which i parodied later. i really liked his last post though, as it had plenty of specific reads and good logic. im leaning towards town because just using math is not really scummy, just bad debating imo. overall seems to be wanting to help the village right now
Hey guys sorry, I had no net, and it seems I also don't have much time to reply either.
First, someone asked what I held back regarding the miller. I made some very long and specific calculations on the worst case scenario where the miller doesn't get cced, which was fairly horrible, and naturally I didn't want to share in public since it gave mafia a detailed description on how to make us lose more. Based on the calculations I was confident I could steer the mafia in the wrong direction via my posts.
And I'm also sticking to my zorbees vote, based p much on the fact that just in 2 posts he managed to put in reasons against voting others or not voting at all, p much just to legitimise voting no lynch from early on.
As for posting reads, I see not much point in doing that in general, and especially not on this day, where I think Yeti's post proves the best, most posts are useless, either due to the discussed topic being made irrelevant, or discussion on no lynch.
well we're going to NL which is what I had desired to happen but should finish this:
zorbees: brings up nl now vs later (29), HDD/walrein response re mislynch (32), agrees with TIK to nl today and votes (41), voting pressure (53), dismay with not voting at all (57), big math post re lynches & cop plus votes me for not voting (62), doesn't want miller to claim (71), squabble with HDD (73), disagrees re miller cc (77), shade onto Walrein (81), slight shade onto AG but finds the rest of the day irrelevant (109), big post where he gives reads: daenym town, yeti/lw/'tik' post under the radar, hdd noob-town, AG scattered maybe scum, walrein iffy but no strong opinion (134), supports nl today but wants other thoughts (137).
I find it a bit suspicious his last post was "well I know most ppl don't want the nl, so do you want to jump on anyone, but me, I like nl today" when I felt that most of the game WAS in favor of a nl today. however that seems like a rather risky push for a bandwagon if he is scum and an odd slip-up. zorbees hadn't really given much of an opinion on anyone until post 134, he's shown a bit of distaste for HDD/Walrein's play and mine but otherwise he didn't really call much out. if zorbees if mafia it is unlikely one of the three of us is his partner, it's probably someone else as I think he's trying to follow up on others' Walrein suspicions. so far he doesn't seem to be putting much weight behind any conviction except no lynching. he is sort of like TIK in that most of his posts are in the first half of the posts for today, I have mild suspicions of him but not a lot.
Walrein: presents his pros on lynching today and nl later (31), is considering opinions on nl but thinks it's only good if he doesn't get strong scumread (60), big talk and logic re: the miller claim (76), weird talk about godfather being dumb to cc the miller (83), plan FOILED (100), denies he advocated a nl (105), defensive post after daenym calls him out, townie read on daenym, suspicious of AG's scatterbrained play, wants more from TIK/HDD (113/4), votes HDD to get words (117), call-out onto TIK (125), defense vs daenym again (127), defensive (130/1), wants zorbees to post (133).
walrein is either retarded mafia or typical villagerein self looking scummy. I feel like he's called others out for no reads but his own reads and contributions have been lacking and he is VERY defensive of himself. I doubt TIK and Walrein are on the same team but I think Daenym and Walrein could both be villagers. his contributions are sort of sparse and I feel like he hasn't really said much, however, I also feel like if he was mafia he likely wouldn't have been the biggest trumpeting voice in favor of lynching today - dissention stands out more than agreeing with the first sensible opinion voiced so he seems more like villager with his own opinion.
Daenym: smalltalk re: miller and slight favor to nling (42), explanation to HDD and miller talk (45), moves away from nl to miller claiming (65), cop accuracy sux (68/9), miller cop talk (87), looking for miller opinions (91), suspicion of Walrein/AG/HDD most notably the first 2 as a scumteam (112), extension (116), HDD noobtown, wants LW's miller thoughts, wants more concrete content from TIK/me/zorbees (123), walrein call-out (126), still sticking on walrein (136).
I'm actually surprised Daenym isn't being more aggressive in calling people out or targeting anyone, besides Walrein. if Walrein is mafia I think Daenym is possibly his partner who is trying to be the MOST distanced person from Walrein, however they could both be village as I mentioned before. idk daenym comes off as the 'nice village guy' trying to direct talk but he was about as focused on the miller as TIK was on the no lynch, however daenym at least has more post-lynch/miller contributions.
HDD and LW have both responded to my requests for more posts - eager to please mafians or just trying to avoid suspicion? if HDD is mafia his partner should really do a better job of helping him fit in and stop making excuses. I remain most suspicious of TIK who hopped on the no lynch bandwagon and has provided almost no useful contributions since. deadline is in 1min so here is my reads.
While it sucks that Yeti died, I think losing the cop is about equally good and bad. On the one hand, we've lost the role that can find and out the hooker. On the other hand, she can't accidentally get a false-Town on Godfather, or false-Scum on Miller. I think the biggest loss is that Yeti's read post was super convenient, since she took the time to summarize every post x_x
Now, regarding Yeti's reads, I was asleep by the time she posted the ones that included me, but one thing that stuck out to me was that she said I wasn't being more aggressive calling people out. My main response to that is that I don't want to be all over the place with accusations of scum. If I say Walrein/AG scumteam, I really mean it, and want to focus any pressure there.
The other thing in Yeti's reads that really jumps out at me is "villagerein looking scummy". This has been something that's sort of in the back of my mind, because I know that when I've read other NOCs he was in, I always felt he was scummy. So for the moment, let's call it FoS on Walrein.
Which brings me back to AG. One of the reasons I focused Walrein over AG was because I thought, based on the way their potential scumteam was playing, AG would be Godfather. So a focus on Walrein would have the cop hopefully target him, get a scum result, and away we go. BUT without the cop, we're going purely based on reads.
vote Aura Guardian
Let's see something today that you're not quite so easily swayed from. Feel free to suspect me again, but this time try not to go back on it in the same post @_@
In other news, I look forward to seeing something more substantial from LW today. As well as TIK, since we won't be having the No Lynch discussion today.
I don't think I'd mind an Aura Guardian lynch right now. However, as I've said before, I feel like Walrein and Lightwolf have been skating by without doing too much. I'd also like to see something from THE_IRON_KENYAN now that most of the day 1 drama is irrelevant, which is mostly what he commented on.
I also asked for others' opinions on Houndoomsday, as I'm having trouble forming an opinion on him.
Right now I'm going to vote Lightwolf as a pressure vote.
Well, I guess we will have to do some good old fashioned scumhunting now that the inspector is dead, since the worst case scenario of the NL plan happened to pan out.
I want to reveal another strategy that i honestly should have talked about yesterday in case i died yesterday night and couldnt say it today.
If there ever comes a time where the village has only 1 day left to get things right, IE they dont have a misslynch and cant no lynch, a day where they have to lynch somebody correctly, the doctor should claim. This is because of the fact that if he reveals himself on a lylo day, he automatically makes it 50/50 shot at hitting the mafia no matter what. When its lylo you want to do everything you can to increase your odds of hitting a maf that day, and a hiding doctor provides no advantage.
Best case scenario today is that we get the hooker. With the inspector gone, the hooker becomes the most powerful member of the mafia due to there being no potential to get caught by the inspector or for the inspector to get a false village result on the godfather.
Im sure there are a lot of you out there who want me to comment on what yeti had to say about me before she died. I think that her read of me was a little ridiculous, because pretty much everything I said yesterday was for an inspector like her and by virtue of that the village to maximize their utility. Sure, she is right that I could have posted more reads or gotten more pressure or whatever, but the reads I did make, while short, were with solid logic. People overate how many you have over the quality of what they are. It could even be argued that I was the indirect result of a lot of reads because of all the discussion I generated, that and I stand by my arguments earlier of pressure being an inherent part of mafia and not so much the result of the players. I mean, if not doing as much as you could makes you scummy, then we are all scummy.
Yeti may have a point about Walrein always looking scummy but I still stand by him as my number 1 target for scum. I dont really like meta arguments because in a game with this much time on your hands you have a lot of opportunities to change the way you look or even fool people with the way you go about things. Metas are a pretty easy thing to change. Metas are better in fast paced chat noc like epicmafia, and even then they are kinda shaky, but in forum mafia I think its a lot tougher to pass those off because of all the time you have.
One thing that really stood out as scummy to me about Walrein was when i was done making what yeti ( and more importantly good logic ) called a great argument for no lynch, he said he would lynch somebody anyway if a scummy enough target came up. I mean, you can obv save your scummy target to be lynched the next day when there are better odds but he just preferred that anyway for no good reason and at the risk of the inspector and doctor, and that is scummy, probably the scummiest thing ive seen out of anyone so far. I dont like his defenses of his behavior either. The ihpone excuse and the joke defense didnt look good at all.