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NOC Dragon Ball Z NOC - Day 4

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sam: vegeta should claim because no mafia would try to kill him, so we have a person we know is good

lw: we don't need a person we know is good, because they may not make good arguments. The risk that the village target vegeta is small compared to the benefits if the mafia do.
 
basically if we're willing to have the slight chance that we'll lose a town role via vegeta and not a mafia role then vegeta shouldnt claim
otherwise, he should

right?
 
Hey, LightWolf's android partner, he wants you to use the randomly capitalized letters within his words to communicate who he wants to kill, as evidenced by his signaling this code by only capitalizing A's so far. Make sure to write down his clues!

Posts by user:

acidphoenix 0, this game he has forgone his bandwagoning ways in favor of, once again, not contributing. he was viewing some thread 24 minutes ago so he's looking at smogon, just not this game. would not at all surprise me if he was mafia and trying to skirt by with 0 contenting, again. at least this way he leaves his actual townplay a secret to us by never posting to establish patterns in a game, ever. step it up kiddo.

Asek 1, #91 says 1 of LW/US are mafia but votes jalmont in an undeniable bandwagon move. this post earns him several bandwagoners of his own voting him due to the scummy phrasing of his post. he doesn't bother to defend himself from these accusations or make a follow-up post which makes me lean a bit more town than scum since he didn't get jumpy. however, Asek, I'd like some opinions from you. why do you believe one of LW/US are mafia, such as do you feel they MUST be on different teams from each other? reads on Blue Tornado and jalmont?

billymills 13, #25 bws jalmont vote, #97 doesn't want a vegeta claim until EoD, #100 pleads for mercy for his out of thread trespasses, #106 speaks out against nazi modding, #112 + #115 hard accuse onto BT of being mafia, #120 votes US over the vegeta claiming deal, #134 agrees with LW over US on meta claiming + neutral read on Yeti + town read on Blazade + not impressed with BT's response to his vote + vote rssp1 for activity, #136 #139 #144 tosses out vegeta claiming cop & discusses, #146 concludes this discussion, #151 summarizes US v LW for macle. I think he's in reaction test mode right now but also annoyed with the meta claptrap bloating the thread - I do find it a bit conspicuous he then advances that discussion with #136 but cuts it short 10 posts later. was this a mafia move to look productive to the town but curb discussion before anything of value was brought up? or did he simply find that avenue of discussion answered sufficiently (by people he was hoping for reactions from)? don't think i have a read on him yet since this seems like pretty standard billy NOC play, which could come from any win condition.

Blazade 27, #11 #12 #13 prefers delay of buu claim but considering merits of vegeta claim + transporter interactions with vegeta role + wants to save claims for LYLO + suggests hypoclaiming (which I will note has never been done on smogon I believe so I feel like doing so may advantage a mafian suggesting this more than the town as a lot of us wouldn't have any experience with this strategy and may make it extremely obvious we are weak town roles or out good village roles) + votes SteelEdges, #19 #21 #22 counterclaim discussion + seems to side with LW over US, #36 this is sort of an interesting post because it has the sort of "US don't forget your xanax" content you would expect from me which almost makes me feel like Blazade is trying to use this tactic to set himself up as not a lynch target since Sam has never seriously favored lynching me even when he (wrongfully) suspects me, #42 crossfire math aka "I'm such a helpful townie!" 101, #47 dislikes putting too much info in public, #50 good post on the problems of having "clean town" dominating the discussion, #55 the weird "I'd suck Sam's dick if I was mafia" post which I still feel is Off, #57 reiterates he thinks mafia are more likely to be damaged by targeting unclaimed!Vegeta than town roles are, #62 "I forgot these mafia roles exist lolz!!", #68 #70 more claiming talk + US bicker, #74 doesn't think mafia will idle, #78 "Mostly I was shocked that Sam would cast shade in multiple posts just because I had the kahones to disagree with him" lol this is Known Sam Strategy don't play the victim, #81 #83 vegeta vs mafia idling talk, #85 agrees with me, #92 10/10 call out onto Asek for his post and votes him, #107 retort to jalmont's mockery of Asek voters, #129 pushes the hypoclaiming once again (somewhat salty US distracted from this) in another "I'm helping the town!" post + doesn't want Asek dead, #131 reply to LW, #133 reads: likes: haruno/mithril + mild dislike: jalmont/billy + "need to see how he lynches": sam + neutral: yeti, #137 #140 #145 response to vegeta claim cop - against it. I have to say I'm split on him atm. I like some of his posts such as #92 but there are others like #42 and #129 I feel like he's trying to look like helpful!town which is a common mafia tactic. He also seems somewhat bitter that Sam managed to domineer the discussion, as if Blazade wanted to use early D1 to push his hypoclaiming suggestion and then appear town for it, but Sam sort of usurped this from him - yet Blazade engaged him anyway repeatedly then goes "sorry I'll stop now~" I dunno there's just something ringing hollow with me about this so I wouldn't rank Blazade nearly as town as billy and Sam seem to. I also think he's trying to emulate how I deal with Sam which has proven to get Sam in a huff at you but never in danger of being lynched.

Blue_Tornado 4, #27 wants people to vote and votes jalmont, #108 bandwagons onto Asek and takes Sam's vote on me seriously FailFish, #114 confusion about billy's accusation (which he never follows up with once billy and I clarify), #148 values mafia flips > town flips + read on Sam: doesn't like his jumpiness or calling out --> just trollin (which I completely agree with and think this is a solid call out) + read on Yeti: doesn't like my ambivalence or vote sticking on Sam (I'd like to say BT NEVER likes this D1 play from me yet I do it every game) + sticking on Asek vote + idler call out. did I miss a BT post between #27 and #108? I felt like he had posted in that time but w/e. This seems like standard BT NOC play in that he places a large emphasis on everyone using their votes for pressure and suspicion D1 however something about his phrasing always makes me read him as scum lol. I think he is spot on that Sam throwing shade at people then retracting it as "just trolling" is really weird and not at all Sam-like. It's like Sam is playing way too cautiously because he is afraid of actually antagonizing one of the people who could force a lynch onto him whereas he normally knows he is town and has no reason to be afraid. sorry this isn't really related to BT but I just like that he caught this. I am really surprised BT only has 4 posts, I just feel like he had more before I counted.

Da Letter El 1, #24 I am 95% sure this is his only post. He is my D1 lynch if he doesn't start posting something (and non-content posts do NOT count).

Flyhn #15 thinks vegeta should claim based on the player, #86 suggests vegeta/buu claim "PR" so mafia can't tell which is which (which receives a resounding applause from Sam - possible buddying? did this idea originate in their mafia chat?), #128 says he doesn't think vegeta should out yet after all yet I'm not really sure where he ever supported the idea vegeta SHOULD claim D1 or w/e. flyhn's #86 is a good start on raising discussion even if it's not an idea I necessarily agree with from dis boi. I would like Flyhn's opinion on UncleSam and LightWolf - do you think they are mafia, town, or the android partners attempting to angrily signal at each other who to kill (which will be me since I am onto them)?

It is at this point I got Bored of reskimming the thread for users' posts and really, really wished we had an ISO function. I cry into my ice cream. I will do the others at a later date.

internet macle SteelEdges THE_IRON_...KENYAN? all need to post more. internet/TIK have a couple good starts but I want more opinions from these users, or suggestions, or ideas, or reads. or really just anything they want to contribute that shows they have read/skimmed at least some of the posts in the thread. otherwise I will be forced to brand them as idling scum too lazy to make a post like acidphoenix.

I don't necessarily think LW/Sam have to be "1 or the other" and they could both be village (but really they are the androids) they just have opposing views on the Vegeta/Buu claiming merits. Which has led to a stifling of discussion and a massive tl;dr from both sides. Talk about other things you two so I can accurately read you. and as I said above I feel like Sam is pulling way too many "I'm just trolling with these votes!!" which are all against people he probably has some fear of being able to lynch him (and this means it wouldn't be a mislynch so he isn't town) if they really scumread him and gun for him. I think he is trying to reaction test (poorly.) as if he were town but then just as quickly retracting his attacks because he knows he isn't town and thus his usual "I AM 100% TOWN ALL BOW BEFORE ME" mindset isn't in play. What's the matter, scared I'll lynch you? <3
 
Tomorrow i started getting tired/bored rofl sry haruno was next and i was like i sort of want to get to this but then it didn't happen. i went alphabetically not by importance.....
 
sam: vegeta should claim because no mafia would try to kill him, so we have a person we know is good

lw: we don't need a person we know is good, because they may not make good arguments. The risk that the village target vegeta is small compared to the benefits if the mafia do.
Entirely biased description of my agenda billy, shame on you.

We don't need a known good this early, because Vegeta being outed won't change how we view what they say, ergo how well their logic holds up, if any yes it's dangerous if people auto believe their opinion just because they are clean. Also claims are better used to take down mafias by disallowing any claiming other than Vegeta if one is being lynched.

We really NEED to come to an agreement people! About the lynching rule, if the players are not ready to accept and enforce it, it's pointless.
 
sorry lw is the lynching rule where certain roles claim if they're about to be lynched? if so I think that yeah certain important roles e.g. inspector vegeta bulletproof dude should claim if they're about to be lynched
 
this is why i'm not a huge fan of open setups - things inevitably turn into a discussion about how to best play the setup, which is boring and doesn't get us closer to lynching mafia, but at the same time we need to talk about the setup, especially if there's an opportunity in which we could possibly break it. that sort of stuff isn't all that interesting to me in the context of the game, which is why i am loathe to participate in it (especially given that i think it hogs up space that is better spent getting everyone to post)

the reason the setup talk is bad in terms of finding mafia is that it's impossible to determine the motivations of the people talking about it. we can't ever look back and say "well lw is prob bad because he thought x about the setup" because that won't ever be indicative of his alignment, unless it's really obvious that he's pushing a strategy that supports the mafia. when things are this complicated i don't think we can ever say that that is truly the case.

as a result i don't truly get any scum reads from anyone. there's a lot of smart people here that are saying a lot, but i'm not certain about any of them. of them all, i think US/yeti are the most town, but then again i read LW as maf a lot of the time so it's hard to know.

at this point i feel like there's too many players who haven't posted / posted enough to truly get a read on people. i think it's commendable that some people have carried the brunt of the conversation, but at this point it's just way to hard to get everyone involved so it means we're going to have a poor lynch no matter what at this rate. there's too many non-reads and not enough actual discussion on who people think are scum although it's been picking up which is good.

i think players that try to seem active but don't actual post a lot are most likely to be bad at this point. that would put someone like BT as maf, maybe a couple others, but I haven't been super keeping track of who has posted and who is not. as much as i think DLE would be a fine lynch, i do feel like he's just plain afk so that's not really indicative of anything

what's the deadline btw? i guess conceivably if we have forever we could just wait for everyone to post but i think that'll get stale real fast
 
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what did i claim help
 
Uh yeah I put that up in a hurry beause I was a little confused about how to get the deadlines working for me given the time I posted the thread. It's supposed to be 3 PM SUNDAY HOLY SHIT JUST IGNORE ME. I'll properly convert that now. Sorry!

The only way the deadline gets shortened is if majority occurs.
 
sorry lw is the lynching rule where certain roles claim if they're about to be lynched? if so I think that yeah certain important roles e.g. inspector vegeta bulletproof dude should claim if they're about to be lynched
Fuck no. You are giving chances for mafia to claim when being lynched, freely allowing them to not only waste claims, but make the actual Cop come forward outing him just because he is forced to CC the mafia claim. This is why we can't let anyone but Vegeta if being lynched, mostly because Vegeta is indeed the easiest to revive if we mess up and him outing himself is not a great detriment to us. My point stands, no one else should be claiming on being lynched, and any info role who finds a bad guy should come forward as soon as they have it.

People are so afraid of being misslynched, yet I must ask why??? If you are playing for the common goal of winning, if your thoughts and posts have the best interest of the village in mind, you will not be up for lynching, simple as that. Misslynches happen when someone doesn't care about the game enough to put in the effort expected. If you don't wanna be lynched as X role, claiming it is not the way to survive, and especially not the way to keep a low profile so mafia may ignore you, all it indeed does is makes our day jobs harder. Framer is the only one putting a dent in here, but if we keep being worried about framer we will also accomplish nothing.

Can we also tone down the shitposting please, if you wish to insult people do it subtly, like me just calling rssp1 a lazy bum, implying he wants claims so he has to put less effort into the game. Less memes more dps.(it rhymes at least >_>)
 
I'm at a debate tournament and have read none of the thread except for the very beginnings of lightwolf and sam yelling about how to handle claims. I'll read up in like 3 hours when I have a lull at this debate tournament.
 
Yeti

If you think me doing math and suggesting strategies are indicative of me being mafia then I'm not sure what you think I'd be doing as town. Some people called my math useless, rssp1 says I missed the point by considering it as true randomness (when I expicitly say it isn't about true randomness and go into psychology later) but even more "directed" randomness obeys the same mathematical intuition that I was trying to convey. The crossfire chance goes up less quickly than the chance of our good roles getting hit because of which numbers are going down in the equations you usually use for this. I could have said just that last sentence to Sam but I took some time to make it mean something and not just be my word against his.

I am not being pushy about hypoclaiming, I just wanted a post where I fully lay it out, fully lay out the pros and cons, and open it up for someone to say something interesting. I agree that it would be difficult for us to pull off effectively. I actually woke up this morning and realized we could accomplish the a similar goal by having someone claim their past targets as they are about to get lynched. Doesn't protect from NKs or buff Vegeta/Watchers but it's something at the very least. I was less pissed that Sam "stole my thunder" and more pissed that his discussion was so long winded.

Everyone seems to have a problem with Asek's vote because it is a bandwagon vote. Look I know Smogon gets uppity about bandwagons but I really don't understand why. It's why I think that the pile on my vote which would normally have helped me out basically stopped me from getting anything accomplished because there was a consummate overreaction to the wagon. So here's MY problem with Asek's vote.

1. Asek says Jalmont is the most likely lynch when at most 1-2 people voted him many pages ago and people hadn't talked about him since. This is just a really weird statement and assumption to make REGARDLESS of the fact that he wanted to vote the most likely person for now.

2. Asek should not be making the assumption that Jalmont is the most likely mafia if he believes that one of UncleSam or LW is mafia. What I immediately expected to see was Asek try to figure out which one of LW and UncleSam was mafia, and maybe vote one of them after setting up the conflict.

Now I usually think that setting up a TvT conflict is one of the surest mafia signs there is but if they get distracted by some random vote it confuses me further. This is why I pressured him and asked him those questions, because it would clarify a lot with respect to motivation. I actually town lean him because of the inconsistency here however the post with the first one with any amount of intrigue that needed to be investigated, and there were many ways he could have answered my questions that basically condemned him.
 
I would like Flyhn's opinion on UncleSam and LightWolf - do you think they are mafia, town, or the android partners attempting to angrily signal at each other who to kill (which will be me since I am onto them)?
It's always hard to tell with these two, since they basically have completely opposing play styles and ALWAYS argue with each other in my experience. Although US really seems to be jumping all over the place with his voting and FoSes. I even went back and looked through previous NOC games he played in, and he's playing a LOT more inconsistently here.
Vote UncleSam
As for Asek i'm going to let that slide for now since they're new, I'd be careful going after them since this is what happens every single D1
 
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