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NOC Dragon Ball Z NOC - Day 4

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UncleSam said:
If we are lynching someone anyway regardless of a claim then obviously a mafia will waste a claim for free. That is literally the definition of a waste. We are going to lynch someone so my point is that there are two scenarios:
1. We lynch a villager
2. We lynch a mafia and they waste one of our claims

That is my point. That is why it is a waste.

Cell/Broly targeting them is AMAZING for us, it's one of the only ways we ever find Cell (via our Tracker/Watcher) under any circumstances, and Broly wastes his kills on them. That is 100% a win for the village.
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At that point it would almost assuredly mean they're mafia if they just waste a claim instead of the whole second guessing bullshit with lynches so that's still acceptable. As opposed to the whole we potentially hit a mafia and they claim and make us second doubt our lynch (see every reason on why they said vegeta should claim during lynch). Lynched villager shouldn't claim as was stated before.

?________________________? 37.5% odds of success amirite? No way in hell is a tracker hitting cell/broly if either of them don't claim so I don't see why you brought that up. Which leaves just the watcher. The watcher has an initial 50% of getting the read between vegeta/buu and if it hits vegeta it's a 100% loss. Now lets say it wins this 50/50 and actually targets buu. Then you need either Cell or broly to actually target buu as well in order for this to work out well. A fucking 37.5% of either of them targetting buu + watcher targetting buu. This is disregarding things such as cell/broly attacking someone else. The risk is absolutely enormous for a high return admittedly and we can't afford a trade like that especially in early game. Not to mention this is a one shot thing since if they do this day 1, they're almost certainly not doing it again the next day after wasting BPV or hitting vegeta. We also don't have confirmation or not on if vegeta actually knows who targets him or whatnot. So I don't see how this is a 100% win for the village since it wastes 2 claims, has minimal chance of actually catching cell/broly and this is before you even consider the whole mafia will start targetting willy nilly afterwards with no more vegeta to fear. This is especially so in the case of the transporter who's biggest detriment is vegeta.



Also unrelated but Yeti I might've missed it but how do you know LW is twin again?
 
Oh one more thing:
LightWolf is right that for most village roles, do not claim even if mislynched today. The only caveats I would add to this are Vegeta/Buu (NOT reviver reviver just gets roleblocked and/or counterclaimed to oblivion, anyone claiming reviver while mafia roleblocker is alive is mafia 100%).

Just take the mislynch if that's the case. This includes roles which might seems like they might want to claim, including Vigilante/Hooker/Cop/JoaT. Sorry but those claims just can't be confirmed and none of those roles is 100% integral to the village succeeding.

Ie I don't 100% disagree with everything LW is saying, he is just playing terribly because he is failing to see obvious logical points, he isn't playing in his typical paranoid-of-risk self, and he is refusing to comment on things outside of just laughing them off.

LightWolf billymills post your own reads lists please. These will be valuable for others to see no matter what and both of you need to stop tunnelling me so that if you do manage to mislynch me the village isn't fucked (if they refuse to do this the rest of you can be assured they are non-village btw, no way village LW or mills refuses to do anything other than mislynch UncleSam on day 1, no one gets that unlucky).
 
Half the game hasn't posted anything relevant.

I could do some ISO of Haruno or Flyhn maybe, but I'm going to let some other players post first.

I gave a semi list earlier. The only difference is that you've dropped substantially for trying to coordinate.
 
If a few people (and I mentioned them above) haven't posted, then of course you just say 'null read'. Most of the game has posted and you've refused to comment on lots of it (or have posted a one-liner non-committal response which could be read either way).

Your 'partial list' consisted of like me/lw/yeti/DLE, so that really gets things no where given that your opinion of me is obvious, DLE hasn't posted, and it's obvious you just agree with everything LW is saying (which ought to be highly suspect even for those of you who generally agree with LW's strategies).

The only other user you currently have a relation to is rssp1, and it's not a strong relation at all. I want to see you take a stand on people like jalmont, Blue_Tornado, and Asek billymills.
 
UncleSam why do you think Flyhn tryharding this game is MORE likely to make him town than mafia? In F&I he idled his way into oblivion and he was town (wasn't he?). If anything I feel like mafia have more of an incentive to tryhard since he wouldn't want to fall under the same suspicions he always does and be a liability for his team... and you KNOW and have admitted being mafia is generally funner and more active.

Haruno it's just speculation LW is 1 of the 2 androids. He's using his autocorrect as a guise to signal to his partner who he wants them to kill. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't.
 
I've already taken a stand on Blue_Tornado: I called him mafia, then he disappointed me with his response. I guess you could call that lean mafia?

Asek is not mafia. I see him getting team advice not to post like that early.

Jalmont is null.
 
Yeti said:
UncleSam why do you think Flyhn tryharding this game is MORE likely to make him town than mafia? In F&I he idled his way into oblivion and he was town (wasn't he?). If anything I feel like mafia have more of an incentive to tryhard since he wouldn't want to fall under the same suspicions he always does and be a liability for his team... and you KNOW and have admitted being mafia is generally funner and more active.

Haruno it's just speculation LW is 1 of the 2 androids. He's using his autocorrect as a guise to signal to his partner who he wants them to kill. Maybe he is, maybe he isn't.
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Flyhn has idled as mafia consistently time and time again, he does it to stay out of the radar. This game marks a definite change in that he is providing original contributions from a unique perspective, which will help the village identify who could be teammates with who later on no matter what he flips.

I view this as town play.

Also I'd like to see you make a list like the one I made last page, I want to see you post definitively about your thoughts on most players because my one reservation about you is that you've been a bit too willing to back off of reads so far. Say something and stand by it.
 
Yeti said:
UncleSam why do you think Flyhn tryharding this game is MORE likely to make him town than mafia? In F&I he idled his way into oblivion and he was town (wasn't he?). If anything I feel like mafia have more of an incentive to tryhard since he wouldn't want to fall under the same suspicions he always does and be a liability for his team... and you KNOW and have admitted being mafia is generally funner and more active.
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Wouldn't you want to do that as village too? Or am I misunderstanding the concept of the game?
 
Flyhn said:
Wouldn't you want to do that as village too? Or am I misunderstanding the concept of the game?
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You would however it is more common for mafia to get more engaged... or to idle under the radar and avoid contributing to avoid scumslipping. My point was, as village you often idle hardcore. Sam is right you have often idled hardcore as mafia as well. So I guess ultimately, you perking up this game is good but inconclusive. Keep it up lad.
 
I will do a list before they day ends, do not worry about that.

Now I said I wouldn't try with US again, but hey, got nothing better to do(besides the food, but that's such a chore). For one you are purposefully ignoring what I'm saying, clearly evidenced by this part of your post.
LightWolf is right that for most village roles, do not claim even if mislynched today. The only caveats I would add to this are Vegeta/Buu (NOT reviver reviver just gets roleblocked and/or counterclaimed to oblivion, anyone claiming reviver while mafia roleblocker is alive is mafia 100%).
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You are not actually talking about what I said, but what someone else said, evidenced by you adding Vegeta to it and discussing reviver. Now about my playstyle, lets not pretend you know what my playstyle is like, because you seem to miss it even when I shove it in your face. You say I'm not a risk taker? You just assume that because I'm paranoid, Genius Game should have made it abundantly clear I'm huge on risks if I think they are the correct ones. But hey lets ignore that by saying, nothing I said this game is REMOTELY RISKY. I did numbers on it, I reasoned why the risk is minimal, I showed that removing said minimal risk benefits mafia more than us, you ignore it, plain and simple, the number of times you call my play terrible is infuriating and you look for the smallest nonsensical excuse just to get rid of me. I don't even get why you want my reads, when you literally said you don't want to do the psycho bullshit, when you know full well that's exactly what my reads would be like??? Yes people are right that your play this game has been inconsistent, you constantly dip back and fort between serious and trolling(before anyone says anything, I'm always never serious), and the excuse that you got ptsd from lynching a clean newbie doesn't hold up when you brushed off your initial attacks on experienced players too.

As for logic, I tried to entertain your ideas, I even reconsidered my stance and oked Vegeta claiming if being lynched because mafia using the claim hurts us not a bit while losing Vegeta would. You however ignore everything that goes against the ideas you had since the start of the game, you haven't even tried to respond to anything actually correct that people use to argue against your plan, you always just go for the ones misinformed or well silly. Otherwise you just repeat your point and just dismiss counterarguments as wrong. This is frustrating to not only me, but clearly plenty of people as evident from the current discussion. I challenge you US, to actually go over my points, all of them and tell me what is wrong with them, ACTUALLY explain it ALL.

TO EVERYONE ELSE, this tldr has only in a very minimal sense anything to do with my suspicions on US, and more with my fears that he is really just grasping at straws to get me out of the fucking game so he doesn't have to deal with me anymore.
 
You said in big bold letters to do that, you also mentioned the reviver and I agreed with you.

I do however disagree on Vegeta, that much is obvious. I said most village roles and specifically said caveats, as in disagree with you.

Not sure you read my post???

I explained where you're wrong about Vegeta. The mafia can waste our claims sufficiently that we lose the Vegeta claim forever if we are lynching them, except that ours are dying as well and there's too many bads to win without a few 100% cleaned people in lategame. It is better to use 1-2 of our claims now on strong village roles which are guaranteed to make it to lategame, and then just plan on winning then.

There's 7 bads in this game out of 19 and two kills per night. We won't win this without going to lategame barring tons of crossfire. It's in our best interests to get Vegeta (and probably Buu) to 100% cleaned status where they can't realistically be killed before the mafia waste our claims and we lose that opportunity forever.
 
Or we just use the 4th claim after the first 3 have been used up for Vegeta to claim? Or what do you expect, a mafia to run in instantly and shout a random claim just to prevent vegeta from claiming the second we are down to our last claim. Because frankly if they go that far good on them, I will gladly take that free lynch.

You are also completely ignoring that the second we are out of claims, NOT A SINGLE POWER ROLE MATTERS. None of them can claim anything they learn from their role, all that would fall under softclaiming. You are throwing away potential claims to have a COIN TOSS at the very end, all while dragging howw NOC is played through the dirt. How do you expect we get that far? How do you expect us to have 100% lynches? I do not care about the late game implications of Vegeta claiming now, because I made it p darn clear already that this is a game type where you gonna run into potential lylos extremely quickly, bad guys have the potential to outnumber us way too easily, your magical 2 unkillable guys left plan is currently unreachable not unkillable. You focus on the very last lynch with your logic, and nothing else.

Let me make the points I actually want you to discuss, because guess what, you again just repeated your own argument of "Late game Vegeta is good, mkay?"

- A clean person does nothing early because their contribution to the lynch is only as meaningful as their observational skills and logic, which are the same even if not outed.
- The proposed no claim rule prevents mafia from freely wasting claims and causes any potential lynches on them to solidify.
- The argument that lynches on mafia will be already 100% by the time they'd fake claim is nonsensical in the context or NOCs, the only way that is true is if we get a result from one of our info roles, which is on the less likely side of things and something we can't bet on. Most of our lynches will be deduction and pattern analysis, sorry I mean glorified guesswork, where mafia suicide claiming before hammer is clearly welcome.
- The benefits of Vegeta specifically outed clearly benefit all bads except Broly, who trades being unabkle to kill Vegeta for being unable to kill whoever the doctor targets, on the other hand 17 and 18 are much safer in killing and mafia can actually use their roles with out risk, something they might choose to not do at all since a mafia life is indeed worth more, especially more than hooking or framing a random villager. The fact that hidden Vegeta crouching Cell forces him to always do the killing, which open Cell up to actually be found bad. Meanwhile we lose the chance to use our doctor, but in the same vein vegeta is in the pool and can't be killed either. Escort and Jailer should be expected to idle as well, as their abilities are just as likely to fuck with us as with the enemy, not to mention creating false positives for the Track/Watch.
- BPV claiming is just silly and I don't think there is a single supporter of the idea. For one mafia knowing who it is greatly diminishes their ability to block kills as the bad guys will choose to eliminate him whenever they want to, obviously to win they need him dead, especially Broly who can't outnumber BPV+Vegeta. BPV remaining hidden and potentially unhit is game changing, much more than vegeta claiming. This one doesn't even have a late game implication if they claim, it'd be idiotic not to trigger his defenses earlier as for victory nearly every faction needs him dead sooner rather than later.
- BPV shouldn't claim if being lynched, sure it might seem similar to Vegeta in that situation, but I stand by that BPV's true strength lies in messing with the mafia when they don't expect it, being an unknown factor. The second they are outed, they will be dealt with before his cleanness could ever be relevant, and we just denied the chance of two claims.
- I don't think I actually ever spelled out this point, I kinda didn't want to say it out in the open, but here goes. The main reason to not use a claim on Vegeta now is simple, because it instantly removes on tick from a clock counting down till when our info roles can't claim. A Cop or Tracker finding a bad guy and getting to claim WHILE watcher is alive is insanely good for us(as long as transporter shows up on watches, based on what I read up on bus drivers, there is no special interaction between it and watch/track in general). I also didn't want to point this out so people don't get the wrong idea and claim when being lynched, as people will take it as an excuse to claim, which doesn't work because guess what, we need a spot open for the watcher to claim after you claimed, yeah good luck with that. This is why I don't want Vegeta to claim unless mafia would be taking up the last claim and no info role has claimed for the first 24 hours of that day yet(or he is being lynched). The pay off is insane if we get can get the early cop or track result.


jumpluff unsure if this was answered yet, but people seem unsure about it still anyways so I'm just gonna ask: Do counterclaims of the same role count as a second claim or an extension of the first? If the latter then we def should wait on the vegeta claim.(though I advocate waiting regardless of the answers, simply because there is no worth to be gained from early Vegeta to me).

All in all I believe the now is more important than X fairly unlikely late game lylo scenario which becomes a coin toss, and now we need solid lynches, and trading claims for those is our best bet
 
Also no, I said in big bold letters that we should discuss how to handle claims NOW, not how I want them handled. The way you responded again made it clear you were more caught up with the post not by me about reviver claiming if lynched, especially how you said you'd add two exceptions, one of which I already had in my suggestion, but you had to spin is as your idea. No really there is a couple of things I said first, that you just repeated later while selling it as your own thought ignoring I made the same statement before.

Again people, nothing to see here, I'm still trying to test the waters if US just wants me out or he is actually just views me as a threat.
 
LightWolf said:
You are also completely ignoring that the second we are out of claims, NOT A SINGLE POWER ROLE MATTERS. None of them can claim anything they learn from their role, all that would fall under softclaiming.
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I disagree. If a player starts gunning for someone suspiciously hard it is entirely possible they're a watcher/tracker/cop, now locked out of claiming, with a guilty result. If they have played their role well enough, it is possible other townspeople may have intuited they are a PR of this sort and support their reads on X confirmed scum... without them ever having claimed.
LightWolf said:
we should discuss how to handle claims NOW, not how I want them handled.
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wat. I definitely got that you wanted us to discuss how to handle claims and you wanted this discussed today. But I admit my eyes have been glazing over you and Sam's back and forth tl;drs.

Anyway can you dips stop focusing on Sam and LW and start focusing on the idling scrubs coasting by? In F&I a ton of the idlers lurking below the surface were Actually Mafia so let's not repeat that game by allowing the pond scum to hide in the murky waters.

It's entirely possible Sam and LW are both village, or both mafia, or both scum in some form. We have seen QUITE ENOUGH from and about them in relation to each other. I want a reads post from LW like Sam's. billy isn't really helping either whenever he gets involved in Sam v LW. When he's posting about not-that I'll consider him to be doing something.

My main concern is people like macle/acidphoenix/SteelEdges/internet/King_/TIK/BTornado who have a few posts with maybe some substance, maybe not, maybe no posts at all. I think a scum can be fleshed out of that group if Sam and LW would stop competing for who gets to shove their dick down my throat. Asek needs to post some further reads as well would like more from him. More from Flyhn on non-Sam players would also be grand.

Also hey jalmont what are you up to how do you feel about the game and reads and such?
 
I disagree. If a player starts gunning for someone suspiciously hard it is entirely possible they're a watcher/tracker/cop, now locked out of claiming, with a guilty result. If they have played their role well enough, it is possible other townspeople may have intuited they are a PR of this sort and support their reads on X confirmed scum... without them ever having claimed.
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To me that falls under soft claiming, especially after we now discussed it and p much guaranteed set it up as a tell, p much equating to trying to dodge the rules by having people who find a bad guy say "fdsgdgsdfdsfv".

And as I said I will do reads later, especially when there is more to actually go on, I have already expressed my dismay at me vs US dominating the discussion and tried to ignore him till he did he whole I'm twin thing. It's kinda hard to do reads when all I can go on is people's opinion on something regarding me directly(slight personal bias detected) and with a good list having done no meaningful posts regarding the matter at all. A read list now would just protect the idlers more and take away focus from them in favour of discussing those who have said enough to formulate a decent read.
 
nice asek-tier post

vote billymills

so what if he's the most suspicious? doesn't mean he's scum. LW continually blaming Sam for things I initially said is shady af. I don't care how many votes he has on him as long as like 1/3 of the game is coasting under the radar. I am not going to find (the rest of) the scum allowing the Sam v LW noise to dominate the thread, and neither is anyone else.

for shame billy you should know better than to support such a useless agenda as to not flesh out people more.
 
LightWolf said:
Or we just use the 4th claim after the first 3 have been used up for Vegeta to claim? Or what do you expect, a mafia to run in instantly and shout a random claim just to prevent vegeta from claiming the second we are down to our last claim. Because frankly if they go that far good on them, I will gladly take that free lynch.

You are also completely ignoring that the second we are out of claims, NOT A SINGLE POWER ROLE MATTERS. None of them can claim anything they learn from their role, all that would fall under softclaiming. You are throwing away potential claims to have a COIN TOSS at the very end, all while dragging howw NOC is played through the dirt. How do you expect we get that far? How do you expect us to have 100% lynches? I do not care about the late game implications of Vegeta claiming now, because I made it p darn clear already that this is a game type where you gonna run into potential lylos extremely quickly, bad guys have the potential to outnumber us way too easily, your magical 2 unkillable guys left plan is currently unreachable not unkillable. You focus on the very last lynch with your logic, and nothing else.
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Or they just claim Vegeta? Now what do you do. It's not like anybody can counter claim him, and nobody is going to risk targeting him so we are kinda screwed at that point.

As for the second comment, if the game is set up such that nobody can go after who they target after the four claims are used, then we don't have a chance anyway. Clearly you can't say I watched/tracked/copped or whatever, but there should be absolutely no reason that they can't just target whoever they inspected super hard. That's no different than regular NOC games at that point.

As for reads, still catching up after work, but US / LW just feel like their normal selves to me thus far. They are both vocal and shockingly disagree. Nothing that makes me want to scream TvT or TvM. Clearly I disagree with LW and am in favor of a Vegeta claim (and only a Vegeta claim), but neither screams scum to me at this point.

Billy I have been pretty unimpressed with for the skill I know he has, just kinda floating along and not saying anything. It's definitely been weird, but I feel like scumMills would do a lot more than this.

Yeti on the other hand seems pretty town to me. She is trying to understand people's arguments (and actually being willing to change her mind based on them) while trying to help drive discussion. No complaints here.

DLE has been absent. That needs to change.

Internet is probably my biggest scum read so far. Keeps randomly poking his head and making rather useless statements. #126 he just decides that Buu/Vegeta have enough info and that conversation should end when there is pretty clearly no really consensus on a preferred course of action. #147 again makes no statement outside of US/LW disagree, so they might be mafia, or not since they just disagree (I realize I did a similar thing myself in this post, but bear with me I'm still catching up). #185 is an awful post with three days left before deadline. That statement on believing Flynn is pretty bad, as is the vote itself. He follow it up in #188 with no real reasoning either.

So for now, vote internet.

I'll keep reading through and hopefully have more in a little while.
 
Yeti said:
My understanding of the Androids is they each submit a kill but cannot OC talk which is why looking for LightWolf signalling to his partner who he will kill is important. IF they submit different kill targets (LW kills billy but Sam kills me) the kill fails. Once one dies, the other takes over killing. Which is why I can see Sam v LW trying to get each other lynched so the one can win without the other bogging them down with their usual squabbles and conflicts and such.

However I would like to draw some attention to King. Let me do his ISO

King_ 6, #37 #38 response to US about vegeta claim, #63 votes TIK for voting US who is "trying to figure out the game," #110 wants an invite to sam and mine's wedding, #113 thinks vegeta should claim, #164 asks if my post counts as a claim?? (still want to know what the thinks I was claiming).

That is six posts, all of which are in response to Sam or me or something we said (such as #113 where he reiterates Vegeta should claim aka Sam's stance despite many people moving away from that POV).

I still want to know what he thinks I was claiming. I asked (and jumpluff said claim counter of 0) and he never replied.

So, King_, what do you think claim was in my post?
Do you intend to respond to anyone besides Sam or myself?
How clean do you find Sam now?

I feel like this guy is trying to buddy to Sam and I and hope that one or both of us find him agreeable and protect him from being lynched for his scummy behavior. Maybe he is actually android/mafia partners with Sam and thus buddying him super hard. He certainly isn't my partner since I'm town (but he could be town trying to latch onto loud personalities he's reading as town). Or he could be mafia trying to do the same thing so we don't tear his scummy mess to shreds.

Explain yourself.
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Yeti I thought the claim in your post was where you said Lightwolf is Android, and I thought any kind of claims counted soft claims, hidden claims etc.
Yes If I can type out what I'm thinking and make sense to you guys I will.
I don't think Sam is clean but the reason I'm backing him is because I also think that Vegeta should claim because of the risk of Town PR dying to him is possible. Say if Vegeta doesn't claim there is a possibility of town targeting him and then dying. We won't know who the person that died targeted. There is also like a decent % chance of game being super scumsided if a decent amount of town targets him. I would like to play it safe and even if scum won't die to Vegeta, Town won't either.


PS: Can we get some TLDR's on the long posts. - Thanks
 
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