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Election 2008, United States
- Thread starter Great Sage
- Start date
Yeah, that's the way it was in CO, too. That's why I'm surprised by McCain's platform. Esp. as the corn lobby is mostly ADM, which counts as Big Business (which also loves the right wing).
Of course, Obama's gonna win, so there's no use complaining about it.
here's what bugs me about mccain. mavericks aren't meant to be in power. his strength lies in being a maverick.
never mind the fact that all the core right wing ideas he endorses. he's been a bugbear for the bush administration in the past, and has been notoriously bi-partisan. now that he's running for president though, he's playing the GOP power game.
now, i supported hillary, but i am totally okay with obama. i worry about his lack of experience, but he does have a very galvanizing potential for the electorate. just look at how much the election is being talked about, especially among the younger set. that can only be a good thing.
never mind the fact that all the core right wing ideas he endorses. he's been a bugbear for the bush administration in the past, and has been notoriously bi-partisan. now that he's running for president though, he's playing the GOP power game.
now, i supported hillary, but i am totally okay with obama. i worry about his lack of experience, but he does have a very galvanizing potential for the electorate. just look at how much the election is being talked about, especially among the younger set. that can only be a good thing.
But Hipmonlee, the Democrats are right wing. They're certainly much further to the right in their policies than New Zealand's right wing National party. Right and Left in the States are not the same thing as Right and Left in New Zealand.
Nutjobs like Bush or McCain couldn't become Prime Minister here (thankfully), they're stuck in marginalised tiny parties like United Future and the Kiwi Party.
Nutjobs like Bush or McCain couldn't become Prime Minister here (thankfully), they're stuck in marginalised tiny parties like United Future and the Kiwi Party.
The whole electorate has shifted to the right in America. Being left is the equivalent to being center-right in Europe; no center-left candidate could ever run for president here.
A SurveyUSA poll in Indiana puts Barack Obama ahead by a single point, well within the margin of error, but it could signal trouble given that a couple of previous polls have also said Obama is ahead there.
Here's how I see the states playing out at this point in time -
Safe Republican
Idaho, Wyoming, Utah - Conservative triangle. Dems haven't won these since 1964, and even prior to that they didn't have much luck.
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina - (Most of) the Deep South. Obama will get lots of black voters, but there's very little else for him to score votes on.
North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma - 5/6 of what I call "The Conservative Axis" (Texas is the other one; see below.) Like the Conservative triangle, Dems haven't had much luck with the Dakotas, Nebraska, or Kansas since the Civil War. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is a super-conservative state that elected Jim Inhofe. (Note: Nebraska's congressional districts can award extra votes. I haven't seen any polling for this, but let's say Nebraska's second district is "Likely Republican". The others are still considered Safe.)
Texas - Demographic trends here are very pro-Democratic, but this is nowhere near the year for Texas to flip. Check back in 2020.
Kentucky, Tennessee - Not as racially polarized as the Deep South, but that also means a much smaller African-American base for Obama. These states have been trending heavily Republican lately; I'd be surprised if Bill Clinton could win them today. Also, "Appalachia".
Likely Republican
Arizona - Against any other opponent, this would be a major target for the Democrats; but this year it's probably out of play. Still, expect a closer one than in previous years.
Montana - Conservative like its neighbors, but not quite superconservative. Montana likes Obama, but probably not enough to put him over the top like they did Clinton in '92.
Alaska - I'd be hard-pressed to think of another state so unhappy with endemic corruption by its officials, who are almost all Republicans. Palin has revived the brand a bit, but I could easily see Stevens being ousted. Still, like Montana, not an easy win for Obama.
Arkansas - Without Clinton on the ticket, I don't see Obama having a whole lot of luck here; it's too much like its neighbor Tennessee.
Georgia - Georgia has a large black population and a dash of Hispanics, plus some liberal whites in Atlanta. The downside is, like the rest of the Deep South, it's still fairly polarized. On the plus side, if Bob Barr's support stays up, he could play spoiler. Like Texas, I feel this is a "check back in 2020" state.
West Virginia - Democrats have done well here historically; it's just bad territory for Obama in particular. I have no doubt he will try to win the voters that are plentiful in this state, but I don't see him pulling it off.
Indiana - While the polls for this place seem close, I predict McCain picks off the balance of the undecideds, so don't get cocky. I don't see a state going from 60-39 Bush (Kerry did better in South Carolina than he did in Indiana) to voting for Obama, even if Obama does better here than Kerry does.
Leans Republican
Florida - Blame Dean for this one. This isn't an easy state for Obama by any stretch; but this is a very Democratic year, and Florida is trending Democratic. It's possible that the offshore drilling issue may swing in Obama's favor if voters are convinced that it won't help; but whether that's enough I don't know.
Virginia - I tend to believe that McCain will score the balance of the undecideds here, so unless Obama is leading comfortably in polls, this will probably go red again. Still, it's a pickup opportunity (especially if Webb or Kaine is on the ticket), and, if it's not blue this year, it could easily be by 2012.
North Carolina - Like Virginia, but eastern NC isn't growing quite as lopsidedly compared to the rest of the state like northern Virginia. I don't think Obama can get it this year, but he could lay the groundwork to get it in 2012.
Toss-ups
Nevada - This one is being a pain for Obama, unlike New Mexico and Colorado. McCain grabbed a lead when Jeremiah Wright cropped up and has held it since, and a recent Rasmussen poll shows him still holding it, even after Hillary dropped out.
Missouri - The good old bellwether, Missouri has proven that it still fits the title by picking McCain and Obama very narrowly in contested primaries. Obama leads here barely in polls; whether Missouri is trending conservative or not may be the deciding factor in this state. It should be noted that the Democrat, Jay Nixon, is extremely likely to win the governorship, so Democrats may be resurging here.
Ohio - Like Missouri, a bellwether. Also like Missouri, Democrats have been making a comeback after falling backward in the early 2000s. Strickland is extremely popular (some pundits think Strickland's unwillingness to be a VP cost Obama his best opportunity). Still a hotbed of Reagan Democrats; Obama will work hard for these voters, so McCain will have to put his all into it.
Leans Democratic
Colorado, New Mexico - Key western states on Obama's agenda, Democrats have been making gains here and Obama is strong in the polls. McCain will play for these, so they're definitely not safe. Still, Colorado may only go up after the convention.
Michigan - Dean again. This one is much easier for Obama than Florida, but Reagan Democrats abound, and Obama needs to make up for lost time quickly. If there is one state McCain can work to put in play that might defeat Obama, this is the one - especially given how Obama botched the RBC ruling. Still, it's an uphill climb for McCain.
Likely Democratic
Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin - These were the states that Republicans were hoping to put in play early on; that was before McCain's "maverick" label went up in smoke. I don't think there's much chance now.
Iowa - McCain is against ethanol and farm subsidies, Obama supports them. While these may be bad economics, they're great politics. Advantage Obama.
Pennsylvania - Similar to Michigan, but Obama has a big operation here AND he's just starting to get the benefits of Ed Rendell's machine. McCain can try here, but he's likely to come up short.
New Hampshire - Should really be "Leans" but recent polls have showed McCain getting destroyed. I think the collapse of the maverick label has hurt him more here than in OR, MN, and WI. New Hampshire likes independence and hates pandering; the results are sadly predictable.
Safe Democratic
Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine - The Northeast is becoming a virtual one-party state, almost reminiscent of the Solid South of the post-Reconstruction era.
California, Washington - So much for putting these in play. Californians are pretty miffed about the drilling flip-flop.
Illinois, Hawaii - McCain could resurrect Ronald Reagan, put him on the ticket, and still lose these states.
Results
Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico, which is enough to give him the presidency even if he loses every other state. McCain's rightward turn has cost him a lot of support in the Kerry states, which may mean that the battle lines are not likely to change much from the last 4 elections. So much for "changing the map", am I right?
Safe Republican
Idaho, Wyoming, Utah - Conservative triangle. Dems haven't won these since 1964, and even prior to that they didn't have much luck.
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, South Carolina - (Most of) the Deep South. Obama will get lots of black voters, but there's very little else for him to score votes on.
North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma - 5/6 of what I call "The Conservative Axis" (Texas is the other one; see below.) Like the Conservative triangle, Dems haven't had much luck with the Dakotas, Nebraska, or Kansas since the Civil War. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is a super-conservative state that elected Jim Inhofe. (Note: Nebraska's congressional districts can award extra votes. I haven't seen any polling for this, but let's say Nebraska's second district is "Likely Republican". The others are still considered Safe.)
Texas - Demographic trends here are very pro-Democratic, but this is nowhere near the year for Texas to flip. Check back in 2020.
Kentucky, Tennessee - Not as racially polarized as the Deep South, but that also means a much smaller African-American base for Obama. These states have been trending heavily Republican lately; I'd be surprised if Bill Clinton could win them today. Also, "Appalachia".
Likely Republican
Arizona - Against any other opponent, this would be a major target for the Democrats; but this year it's probably out of play. Still, expect a closer one than in previous years.
Montana - Conservative like its neighbors, but not quite superconservative. Montana likes Obama, but probably not enough to put him over the top like they did Clinton in '92.
Alaska - I'd be hard-pressed to think of another state so unhappy with endemic corruption by its officials, who are almost all Republicans. Palin has revived the brand a bit, but I could easily see Stevens being ousted. Still, like Montana, not an easy win for Obama.
Arkansas - Without Clinton on the ticket, I don't see Obama having a whole lot of luck here; it's too much like its neighbor Tennessee.
Georgia - Georgia has a large black population and a dash of Hispanics, plus some liberal whites in Atlanta. The downside is, like the rest of the Deep South, it's still fairly polarized. On the plus side, if Bob Barr's support stays up, he could play spoiler. Like Texas, I feel this is a "check back in 2020" state.
West Virginia - Democrats have done well here historically; it's just bad territory for Obama in particular. I have no doubt he will try to win the voters that are plentiful in this state, but I don't see him pulling it off.
Indiana - While the polls for this place seem close, I predict McCain picks off the balance of the undecideds, so don't get cocky. I don't see a state going from 60-39 Bush (Kerry did better in South Carolina than he did in Indiana) to voting for Obama, even if Obama does better here than Kerry does.
Leans Republican
Florida - Blame Dean for this one. This isn't an easy state for Obama by any stretch; but this is a very Democratic year, and Florida is trending Democratic. It's possible that the offshore drilling issue may swing in Obama's favor if voters are convinced that it won't help; but whether that's enough I don't know.
Virginia - I tend to believe that McCain will score the balance of the undecideds here, so unless Obama is leading comfortably in polls, this will probably go red again. Still, it's a pickup opportunity (especially if Webb or Kaine is on the ticket), and, if it's not blue this year, it could easily be by 2012.
North Carolina - Like Virginia, but eastern NC isn't growing quite as lopsidedly compared to the rest of the state like northern Virginia. I don't think Obama can get it this year, but he could lay the groundwork to get it in 2012.
Toss-ups
Nevada - This one is being a pain for Obama, unlike New Mexico and Colorado. McCain grabbed a lead when Jeremiah Wright cropped up and has held it since, and a recent Rasmussen poll shows him still holding it, even after Hillary dropped out.
Missouri - The good old bellwether, Missouri has proven that it still fits the title by picking McCain and Obama very narrowly in contested primaries. Obama leads here barely in polls; whether Missouri is trending conservative or not may be the deciding factor in this state. It should be noted that the Democrat, Jay Nixon, is extremely likely to win the governorship, so Democrats may be resurging here.
Ohio - Like Missouri, a bellwether. Also like Missouri, Democrats have been making a comeback after falling backward in the early 2000s. Strickland is extremely popular (some pundits think Strickland's unwillingness to be a VP cost Obama his best opportunity). Still a hotbed of Reagan Democrats; Obama will work hard for these voters, so McCain will have to put his all into it.
Leans Democratic
Colorado, New Mexico - Key western states on Obama's agenda, Democrats have been making gains here and Obama is strong in the polls. McCain will play for these, so they're definitely not safe. Still, Colorado may only go up after the convention.
Michigan - Dean again. This one is much easier for Obama than Florida, but Reagan Democrats abound, and Obama needs to make up for lost time quickly. If there is one state McCain can work to put in play that might defeat Obama, this is the one - especially given how Obama botched the RBC ruling. Still, it's an uphill climb for McCain.
Likely Democratic
Oregon, Minnesota, Wisconsin - These were the states that Republicans were hoping to put in play early on; that was before McCain's "maverick" label went up in smoke. I don't think there's much chance now.
Iowa - McCain is against ethanol and farm subsidies, Obama supports them. While these may be bad economics, they're great politics. Advantage Obama.
Pennsylvania - Similar to Michigan, but Obama has a big operation here AND he's just starting to get the benefits of Ed Rendell's machine. McCain can try here, but he's likely to come up short.
New Hampshire - Should really be "Leans" but recent polls have showed McCain getting destroyed. I think the collapse of the maverick label has hurt him more here than in OR, MN, and WI. New Hampshire likes independence and hates pandering; the results are sadly predictable.
Safe Democratic
Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, Maine - The Northeast is becoming a virtual one-party state, almost reminiscent of the Solid South of the post-Reconstruction era.
California, Washington - So much for putting these in play. Californians are pretty miffed about the drilling flip-flop.
Illinois, Hawaii - McCain could resurrect Ronald Reagan, put him on the ticket, and still lose these states.
Results
Obama wins all the Kerry states plus Iowa, Colorado, and New Mexico, which is enough to give him the presidency even if he loses every other state. McCain's rightward turn has cost him a lot of support in the Kerry states, which may mean that the battle lines are not likely to change much from the last 4 elections. So much for "changing the map", am I right?
Obama might be able to snatch one of Nebraska's congressional districts, though, most likely the one containing Omaha; he's also borderline competitive in the district containing Lincoln, but that's less likely to flip.
http://www.examiner.com/a-1458994~Merkley__Smith_ad_using_Obama_shows_desperation.html?cid=temp-popular
Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Merkley said Wednesday that a TV ad by Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith, touting his work with Barack Obama, shows that the Republican incumbent is desperate to hold on to his Senate seat.
Greatest ever? Greatest ever.
Democratic Senate candidate Jeff Merkley said Wednesday that a TV ad by Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith, touting his work with Barack Obama, shows that the Republican incumbent is desperate to hold on to his Senate seat.
Greatest ever? Greatest ever.
Quinnipiac University released four polls today, for the states of Colorado, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Obama leads by double digits in Minnesota and Wisconsin, which is quite fitting considering he has done well with Protestants and he's from the Midwest. He also leads by 5 in Colorado and 6 in Michigan. These polls also show that Obama is solidifying the base; in all 4 states, even in heavily Reagan Democratic Michigan, he keeps Democratic defection to John McCain below 10%.
Additionally, Rasmussen has released a poll showing McCain winning by 15% in Tennessee; this is actually an improvement for Obama, as earlier polling showed him trailing by 27. Clinton's exit seems to have helped him a lot in Appalachia, but the only place where it might put him over the top is West Virginia, and even that's unlikely.
OK, Misty, it'll make Pennsylvania and Ohio less competitive and tilts North Carolina and Virginia... ... ... ...
Senate polling in Oregon conducted by the Chamber of Commerce, which is supposed to be aligned towards the Republicans, shows Gordon Smith leading only by 4 over Jeff Merkley, and as partisan polling is more about fun with numbers than actually gauging public opinion, the reality is probably much worse for Smith. New Jersey polling conducted by Public Mind shows Frank Lautenberg leading by 15% over Dick Zimmer; given New Jersey's tradition of polling unusually high for the Republican until the Democrat finally gets a decisive lead in September or October, Lautenberg is safe.
Additionally, Rasmussen has released a poll showing McCain winning by 15% in Tennessee; this is actually an improvement for Obama, as earlier polling showed him trailing by 27. Clinton's exit seems to have helped him a lot in Appalachia, but the only place where it might put him over the top is West Virginia, and even that's unlikely.
OK, Misty, it'll make Pennsylvania and Ohio less competitive and tilts North Carolina and Virginia... ... ... ...
Senate polling in Oregon conducted by the Chamber of Commerce, which is supposed to be aligned towards the Republicans, shows Gordon Smith leading only by 4 over Jeff Merkley, and as partisan polling is more about fun with numbers than actually gauging public opinion, the reality is probably much worse for Smith. New Jersey polling conducted by Public Mind shows Frank Lautenberg leading by 15% over Dick Zimmer; given New Jersey's tradition of polling unusually high for the Republican until the Democrat finally gets a decisive lead in September or October, Lautenberg is safe.
Gains in Appalachia will help Obama in North Carolina, Virginia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania (plus New York and Maryland, but he hardly needs help there). Appalachia is a pretty large area.
hahahaha that is incredible
you know a candidate has the youth vote when you play a mock up of space invaders just to get facts about your campaign.
I just thought of something. IIRC there was no end to Space Invaders; they just kept coming in new waves until you died. Is McCain trying to say that no matter how hard he tries, he can't stop pork?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...124.html?hpid=topnews&sid=ST2008062900131&pos
This is a very interesting story about "have" states and "have not" states - the latter have declined as industrial jobs have declined/been outsourced/been replaced by machines, while the former have gained through tech and services jobs. Apparently, "have" states are trending Democratic, while "have nots" are trending Republican (the story uses Virginia and West Virginia as examples). The implications are major - southern states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, along with western states like Colorado and Arizona, which were once Republican strongholds, could end up in Democratic hands, while the Rust Belt could tip towards Republicans (once voters stop being so angry at George Bush). In the short term, this benefits Republicans; but the former states are growing and adding electoral votes, while the old rust belt states (along with many other Republican states, like the Great Plains states) are falling behind.
On the other hand, this assumes that both parties continue to have the same planks, although I doubt they will change much in the next 20 years.
EDIT: Also, on the Oregon thing:
http://www.registerguard.com/csp/cms/sites/dt.cms.support.viewStory.cls?cid=119386&sid=5&fid=1
Oregon has 671,000 registered Republican voters, and 870,000 Democrats.
So yeah, any poll that has the same number of Dems and Reps is probably off.
This is a very interesting story about "have" states and "have not" states - the latter have declined as industrial jobs have declined/been outsourced/been replaced by machines, while the former have gained through tech and services jobs. Apparently, "have" states are trending Democratic, while "have nots" are trending Republican (the story uses Virginia and West Virginia as examples). The implications are major - southern states like Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia, along with western states like Colorado and Arizona, which were once Republican strongholds, could end up in Democratic hands, while the Rust Belt could tip towards Republicans (once voters stop being so angry at George Bush). In the short term, this benefits Republicans; but the former states are growing and adding electoral votes, while the old rust belt states (along with many other Republican states, like the Great Plains states) are falling behind.
On the other hand, this assumes that both parties continue to have the same planks, although I doubt they will change much in the next 20 years.
EDIT: Also, on the Oregon thing:
http://www.registerguard.com/csp/cms/sites/dt.cms.support.viewStory.cls?cid=119386&sid=5&fid=1
Oregon has 671,000 registered Republican voters, and 870,000 Democrats.
So yeah, any poll that has the same number of Dems and Reps is probably off.
I really wish Obama was more experienced.
I feel his lack of that, and substance may hurt him.
McCain is all about showing his "substance" by putting out those policies of his.
I think Obama needs to issue some sort of comprehensive plan, then attack McCain on his own plan's flaws and exploit McCain's "rashness"
But we all know Obama is going to win. He has amazing fanboy popularity among younger voters. I wonder how that will affect elections in the future. Possibly a wave of Democrats, diminishing the power of Republicans severely? I don't know.
I feel his lack of that, and substance may hurt him.
McCain is all about showing his "substance" by putting out those policies of his.
I think Obama needs to issue some sort of comprehensive plan, then attack McCain on his own plan's flaws and exploit McCain's "rashness"
But we all know Obama is going to win. He has amazing fanboy popularity among younger voters. I wonder how that will affect elections in the future. Possibly a wave of Democrats, diminishing the power of Republicans severely? I don't know.
I'm going to have to go with Obama. I just agree with a lot of things he stands for. I don't agree with everything, obviously, but he's my #1 choice right now.
His stance isn't perfect on the issue of gay rights, but he supports equality way more than Mcain does, and that's pretty important to me.
His stance isn't perfect on the issue of gay rights, but he supports equality way more than Mcain does, and that's pretty important to me.
A new SurveyUSA poll for Kentucky's 2nd district shows Democrat Boswell leading by 3 points. This follows a previous Kentucky poll, of the 3rd district, which showed incumbent Democrat Yarmuth with a double digit lead over Anne Northup. The 3rd district is evenly divided, and this is shaping up to be a terrible year for Republicans in general, so that made perfect sense; however, this poll shows that Democrats may even make strong incursions in R+13 districts like the 2nd of Kentucky.
By the way, don't be alarmed by the fact that Democrats represent 52% of the sample. Democrats have an overall registration advantage in Kentucky, but most tend to be moderate or conservative. It'll become apparent when you see that although Democrats make up over half the sample, only 9% of the sample describe themselves as "liberal".
By the way, don't be alarmed by the fact that Democrats represent 52% of the sample. Democrats have an overall registration advantage in Kentucky, but most tend to be moderate or conservative. It'll become apparent when you see that although Democrats make up over half the sample, only 9% of the sample describe themselves as "liberal".
Let's update state rankings.
Safe Republican
South Carolina
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Louisiana
Nebraska-3, Nebraska popular vote
Kansas
Oklahoma
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
Total: 73
Likely Republican
West Virginia
Georgia
Arkansas
Mississippi (Obama consistently polls pretty close by Mississippi standards)
North Dakota (Obama isn't polling that far behind there, actually)
South Dakota (It's very similar demographically to North Dakota)
Nebraska-1 (Polls show Obama has a fighting chance here)
Texas (It's trending Democratic and McCain has problems with the base)
Arizona (Fun fact: polling shows Janet Napolitano would thump John McCain in a Senate race by 10%)
Alaska
Total: 86
Leans Republican
North Carolina
Florida
Indiana (Three polls have shown Obama ahead, and he's right next door)
Missouri (Polls show McCain taking a decent lead here, and it voted unusually Republican in 2004)
Nebraska-2 (The least Republican of Nebraska's districts, Obama is most likely to pick up this one)
Montana (Recent polling shows Obama ahead, but needs to be verified for statistical noise)
Total: 68
Tossup
Nevada
Ohio
Virginia (Obama got stronger in the polling)
Total: 38
Leans Democrat
Colorado
New Mexico
Total: 14
Likely Democrat
Maine-2 (It's a tad more conservative than the other district)
New Hampshire
Oregon
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa
Pennsylvania
Michigan (Polling indicates Obama has made up for lost time, and Clinton's exit helped him in the Rust Belt in general)
Total: 77
Safe Democrat
Maine-1, Maine popular vote
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut (Lamont would beat Lieberman by 15% if the Senate race was held today)
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
Washington, D.C.
Illinois
Washington
California
Hawaii
Total: 182
Total without Leaners, Democrat-Republican: 259-159
Total with Leaners, Democrat-Republican: 273-227
With Leaners, Obama clinches the presidency. Notable is how fractured McCain's base is; nearly a third of his 227 electoral votes are from Leaners and less than a third are Safe, but only about 5% of Obama's 273 are Leaners and two-thirds are Safe.
Safe Republican
South Carolina
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Louisiana
Nebraska-3, Nebraska popular vote
Kansas
Oklahoma
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
Total: 73
Likely Republican
West Virginia
Georgia
Arkansas
Mississippi (Obama consistently polls pretty close by Mississippi standards)
North Dakota (Obama isn't polling that far behind there, actually)
South Dakota (It's very similar demographically to North Dakota)
Nebraska-1 (Polls show Obama has a fighting chance here)
Texas (It's trending Democratic and McCain has problems with the base)
Arizona (Fun fact: polling shows Janet Napolitano would thump John McCain in a Senate race by 10%)
Alaska
Total: 86
Leans Republican
North Carolina
Florida
Indiana (Three polls have shown Obama ahead, and he's right next door)
Missouri (Polls show McCain taking a decent lead here, and it voted unusually Republican in 2004)
Nebraska-2 (The least Republican of Nebraska's districts, Obama is most likely to pick up this one)
Montana (Recent polling shows Obama ahead, but needs to be verified for statistical noise)
Total: 68
Tossup
Nevada
Ohio
Virginia (Obama got stronger in the polling)
Total: 38
Leans Democrat
Colorado
New Mexico
Total: 14
Likely Democrat
Maine-2 (It's a tad more conservative than the other district)
New Hampshire
Oregon
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Iowa
Pennsylvania
Michigan (Polling indicates Obama has made up for lost time, and Clinton's exit helped him in the Rust Belt in general)
Total: 77
Safe Democrat
Maine-1, Maine popular vote
Vermont
Massachusetts
Rhode Island
Connecticut (Lamont would beat Lieberman by 15% if the Senate race was held today)
New York
New Jersey
Delaware
Maryland
Washington, D.C.
Illinois
Washington
California
Hawaii
Total: 182
Total without Leaners, Democrat-Republican: 259-159
Total with Leaners, Democrat-Republican: 273-227
With Leaners, Obama clinches the presidency. Notable is how fractured McCain's base is; nearly a third of his 227 electoral votes are from Leaners and less than a third are Safe, but only about 5% of Obama's 273 are Leaners and two-thirds are Safe.
Other - write-in vote for Ron Paul
Why? Because he's the candidate who most closely embodies what I believe in.
Why? Because he's the candidate who most closely embodies what I believe in.