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Clouds

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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/26/us/jacksonville-landing-mass-shooting-madden-tournament.html

Another shooting happened today, this time at a gaming event. How many more people need to die before something happens? I saw the clip of right before the stream cut out and it genuinely awakens some next level terror in me. How long will we allow this to go on?
Nothing will happen on this front until something can be done about the massively polarized state our country is in right now politically. The most we can push for is some compromise and more restrictions being put on the purchasing of guns, but with the rights granted in the second amendment of the constitution, even that will be pretty difficult to manage. It sucks, and you'd think we'd at least have gone somewhere with this by now, but there are so many road blocks.

Saw the stream footage as well and it was terrifying, especially the whole laser pointing thing on Eli Clayton, one of the victims. Mad world.
 

sandshrewz

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^ For anyone who hasn't already, I very strongly recommend that you do not look up the stream footage, don't think about it, and don't be curious about it, just don't.

I have no comments on the state of USA politics, but yea if anyone is attending anything that's going to have many people, make sure there's sufficient security measures in place if you want to go with a peace of mind. Minimally metal detectors. If you're organizing such scaled events, make sure you have the measures up. In general, security trends around the world have been going up and things are getting tightened. It's not just about gun laws etc, but internal and external threats are both very real concerns in the current age.
 

Myzozoa

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what can you even do about polarization though? in direct terms. like say hey everyone "cumbaya" or what? like saying polarization is a foremost problem pretty much ignores how polarization happens in the first place. im all for polarization leading to political inefficiency for right wing administrations after all, and I think that pretty much sums up how many people feel. What are you gonna do? call a constitutional convention under the pretense of doing something about the 2nd amendment? Have fun losing the 1st and the 14th at the same time or w.e it is that you want to compromise on.

i mean im doing my best to understand 'polarization' as some real phenomenon that has a material causality that is traceable and the closest I can think of is income inequality. I agree! We need to address income inequality, cumbaya!
 

Shrug

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the country needs more polarization. your ideological enemies are your enemies. they want people to die. why act like it's something different than that? they dont
 

Shrug

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like... the republicans just stole the 2000 election. democrats got more votes in the country and in the states they needed to win the electoral college. the republicans just wanted it more. they just fought lower and dirtier and their guy became president. then he exploited a national tragedy to start two wars to enrich the oil companies and weapons manufacturers who pushed him into office. those wars killed a million people and destroyed a region and became the pretense for sanctions starving millions more - the consequences are really too staggering to contemplate. and then this guy let his speculator buddies destroy the world economy. just fucking crippled it. thats got a body count too, a massive one. and hes the democrats friend. they like this guy. in any just world hed be in the hague or - sorry - kissing bricks before eating a bullet. stole an election and killed millions, but hes cool to them. more polarization please
 

Ninahaza

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To be honest the general state of affairs in today's society is why i heavily invest in dogs, cameras, etc

My older brother is an army vet, a marine, and he insists that i (LEGALLY) carry a gun when in public. I dont agree with him but can see his point.
this is him on his vacation to Ghana

0000.jpg


Its a fucked up world. Do your part to get help if you need it before its too late.
And if you see enough red flags, say something. I dont care if its a family member or friend

I used to be a big gamer and i used to love traveling to compete in games, and i would have hated to be shot by some fucker (excuse my french)
 

Ninahaza

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and i was also at the Boston pokemon world championships. I only thank my lucky stars that things didnt go badly
 
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Myzozoa

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https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...-6-this-is-how-world-ends-book-climate-change

"The term ‘black swan’ is a metaphor for a high-consequence event that comes as a surprise. Some high-consequence events that are unobserved and unanticipated may nevertheless be predictable,” they wrote in Nature Climate Change. “Such events may be referred to as ‘grey swans’ (or, sometimes, ‘perfect storms’). Unlike truly unpredicted and unavoidable black swans, which can be dealt with only by fast reaction and recovery, grey swans – although also novel and outside experience – can be better foreseen and systematically prepared for."

it's a good thing that i learned that climate change isn't real this year, otherwise i might be disturbed by reports like this
 

destinyunknown

Banned deucer.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...-6-this-is-how-world-ends-book-climate-change

"The term ‘black swan’ is a metaphor for a high-consequence event that comes as a surprise. Some high-consequence events that are unobserved and unanticipated may nevertheless be predictable,” they wrote in Nature Climate Change. “Such events may be referred to as ‘grey swans’ (or, sometimes, ‘perfect storms’). Unlike truly unpredicted and unavoidable black swans, which can be dealt with only by fast reaction and recovery, grey swans – although also novel and outside experience – can be better foreseen and systematically prepared for."

it's a good thing that i learned that climate change isn't real this year, otherwise i might be disturbed by reports like this
I have nothing against the ideas in the article, but it's kind of sad that they didn't even mention the person who coined and popularized the term ''black swan''

For reference: https://twitter.com/nntaleb
 

Myzozoa

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for sure

idk his twitter seems kind of sad? he currently seems to be arguing (poorly imo) against some Kasparov quotes on the proper course of action in a police state, and mouthing off about some people (who?) appropriating popper's arguments, and then how 'leftists' he sees on the internet are trying to muzzle people before 'finding out if they're fascists or not' on the assumption that you cannot identify 'fascists' and sympathizers before they express their ideas. The problem with that thinking (because this is not tangential at all and you all really need to read my take) is that fascists don't come out and say 'I'm a fascist' or 'im a neo nazi', they say things like 'I'm alt-right' or 'I'm an economic nationalist', or maybe they don't say any of those things.
The second problem is that he's floating these accusations wildly out of context (as far as I can bother to tell, im arrogantly not caring to dig deeper): like, consider people being upset because a platform is going to be given to Alex Jones or Steve Bannon. It is disingenuous to assert that people revoking platforms for them don't already know that they're neonazis. It is an incredible assumption by Taleb, because it implies that the people being called fascists aren't being called fascists precisely because they did speak. They were not silenced at all, and so the people calling them fascists do so on the basis of what they have already said. I'm myzozoa, and I endorse silencing people who express support for Nazis and fascist regimes by calling them nazis and fascists (if it works). There, I said it. Tell me I'm a bigot if you must, I guess.

anyway thanks for the background, his thinking on societal risk is top stuff, but his twitter centrism is just wack to me. also iirc he does an epic take down of pinker which is kind of funny because, when centrists fight...
 
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Shrug

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the supreme court hearings seem to have converted a lot of conservatives to the cause of prison abolition. i am sure we will see the formation of a broad coalition dedicated to the tearing down of a carceral state that tortures individuals accused of "unverifiable allegations". unless there's another function for prisons that i am missing. ive just had a frontal lobotomy and thinking is hard for me
 

vonFiedler

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the supreme court hearings seem to have converted a lot of conservatives to the cause of prison abolition. i am sure we will see the formation of a broad coalition dedicated to the tearing down of a carceral state that tortures individuals accused of "unverifiable allegations". unless there's another function for prisons that i am missing. ive just had a frontal lobotomy and thinking is hard for me
Totally unrelated I'm sure??? but it'd be nice if we got rid of the privatized prison culture.
 

Myzozoa

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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/05/no-shock-powerful-hate-identity-politics

when people disparage identity politics

"The trouble is, not all identities count as equal. The more power they carry, the less likely the carrier is to be aware of it as an identity at all. Nobody asks me: “When did you come out as straight?” or “How did you balance travelling as a foreign correspondent with raising children?” because straight men don’t get asked that. What is often dismissed as “identity politics” might be more accurately just called “politics” originating from the concerns of less advantaged groups."

"It’s not difficult to see why the right has a problem with this. Their agenda is centred on preserving and extending privileges that already exist. Denigrating equal rights campaigners as “grievance politics” practitioners, the irony is that they practise the very methods they lampoon. Railing against liberal elites, feminists, migrants and Muslims, they have cornered the market in victimhood. Trump’s presidential campaign made an unvarnished appeal to white, Christian Americans – what is that if not an identity?"
 
So are we gonna have a proper discussion on Kavanaugh? I'm feeling pretty weird right now.

Here's what I understand as justification from reading conservative circles to find out why this is happening, ordered from most to least reasonable. A conservative on here can feel free to correct me on this:

1) There isn't sufficient evidence to convict him of sexual assualt, and we have innocent until proven guilty. Even if this is a job interview, and even if Ford is credible/believable, we shouldn't set a precedent of allowing an accusation of this calibur to disqualify someone because then any false accusation works and that's the bad square of the prisoner's dilemma where everyone sinks their political opponent by calling them a rapist.

2) Something about believing Ford is, most charitably, mistaken, and least charitably, lying and conspiring with the Dems to bring an innocent man down. But as far as I understand the overwhelming statement is they believe she was assaulted (it gets into crazytown territory to deny the therapist visit from years ago was apolitical) and she misremembers who assaulted her.

3) Libs care about this so we gotta own the libs.

I'll try to address these:

1) Regardless of the concrete evidence you could possibly gather about a notoriously "he said, she said" affair from >30 years ago and regardless of how shitty the court of public opinion is, you can't just say it's all a wash and throw your hands up. When it comes to a lifetime appointment of someone who's going to be setting the standards for womens rights, the truth today actually matters, and it matters more than some proxy battle about how #MeToo might be going too far, so we should make our best effort to determine the truth. #BelieveWomen is not #BelieveAllWomen just like #BlackLivesMatter is not #OnlyBlackLives matter. And if you think setting a precedent for false accusations is bad, try setting a precedent that if you don't have DNA evidence then you may as well stay silent when you have a moral obligation to share your painful experience. We'll all still be around in every individual case to check the veracity of someone's claim.

2) Anecdotally, I was strangled by a classmate in middle school once. I have no idea which year, month or day, how I got home that day, who called my parents, etc. But I will always remember who did it. Not anecdotally people don't get famous from doing this, they get death threats. This isn't a fucking joke. If the Dems were so hard up to stop a republican from hitting the supreme court there'd be nothing they could do about it short of pulling a false accusation on everyone they pull from the federalist society from now until January. It may be the least viable political operation of all time. So I'm not seeing how the Bayesian evidence tips in favor of politically motivated lying. And that's not even getting into the hearing itself, the character corroborations from classmates about Kavanaugh, and the other assault allegations.

3) I mean it worked for Trump. And that kind of ridiculous vindictiveness is so ingrained in the culture these days that even though the win for the Repulicans was essentially guaranteed, it isn't complete without also standing your ground and offering no quarter, truth be damned. Because Winning is more important than what actually happens.

So yeah, i'm late weighing in but the polarizing nature of this one has been background noise in my mind for weeks now. I didn't have much faith that things would get better after the 2016 election (with either result) but it feels even more raw seeing the tribalism demonstrably getting worse.
 

Mr.E

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Fuck Kavanaugh. Fuck the GOP. Dear fellow majority, please start fucking showing up to your polling places.

I'll say something somewhat related and useful to mind though: You don't have to pick sides in a he-said-she-said situation. It's entirely possible for both the accuser's story to be credible and for one to acknowledge that there isn't sufficient evidence to break the accused's presumption of innocence. Ford could be telling the truth, I can believe that, and I may even develop a dislike for Kavanaugh for it while still not specifically condemning him for an action that I can't prove he did because I strongly believe in the presumption of innocence principle. Believe all women, but also innocent until proven guilty. (Also mind that men can be victims and women prepetrators, among other things. Only a Sith deals in absolutes.)

Kavanaugh's conduct throughout this ordeal, especially the weird anti-liberal rant out of absolutely nowhere for no reason, and his professional record already make him a shit candidate though. The GOP orchestrating a sham investigation into the matter certainly makes him look guilty of something, even if he's 100% clean (yeah right), and McConnell is a scumbag of the highest degree forcing through a vote on a fucking Saturday for a hot garbage candidate that nobody except Trump actually wants. It may prove to be a Pyrrhic victory for the GOP as liberal voters become more motivated than ever to get them out of office, but with potentially decades of a hard conservative majority running the SCOTUS basically without even needing to acknowledge the existence of their other four fellow justices I don't see how they fail to come out ahead still.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/05/no-shock-powerful-hate-identity-politics

when people disparage identity politics

"The trouble is, not all identities count as equal. The more power they carry, the less likely the carrier is to be aware of it as an identity at all. Nobody asks me: “When did you come out as straight?” or “How did you balance travelling as a foreign correspondent with raising children?” because straight men don’t get asked that. What is often dismissed as “identity politics” might be more accurately just called “politics” originating from the concerns of less advantaged groups."

"It’s not difficult to see why the right has a problem with this. Their agenda is centred on preserving and extending privileges that already exist. Denigrating equal rights campaigners as “grievance politics” practitioners, the irony is that they practise the very methods they lampoon. Railing against liberal elites, feminists, migrants and Muslims, they have cornered the market in victimhood. Trump’s presidential campaign made an unvarnished appeal to white, Christian Americans – what is that if not an identity?"
"When British women are being paid 18% less than men, gender is a material concern; when for every $100 in wealth a white person has in the US an African-American has just $5, race is a material issue."

Blegh. Well, I can't say I know British statistics specifically but I hate disingenuous feminist talking points. Women aren't individually paid less than men, once you control for all other factors. Women collectively make less than men because women less commonly hold the highest paid positions in businesses. e.g. Female software engineers make as much money as their male counterparts, it's just that 80% of software engineers are male. Granted, that might still point to a gender problem but it's certainly not as simple as "just give women more money." Women need the opportunities, the drive and encouragement, and, most importantly though many people are loathe to hear it, society needs time to evolve. Resolving the gender pay imbalance inherently cannot be a quick fix.

We can't simply fire 200 of the male CEOs from the 476 current Fortune 500 companies that have a male CEO and replace them with women. We've gotta wait for them to leave their posts, then maybe a qualified woman will replace them. If we need more women in STEM, particularly Technology and Engineering where men are about 80% of the field (women actually outnumber men in Science), we've gotta wait for those little girls we're encouraging to get into STEM fields to grow up, earn their degrees and start applying for those jobs. Etc. It takes decades of slow change to happen. And ultimately, if they still don't go into those fields as often, well shit maybe they just don't want to do it and we should stop trying to invent problems that don't actually exist. Punishing the majority (i.e. white males) by trying to use law to artificially speed up the process, when most of them individually haven't done anything wrong and aren't benefitting from their alleged privilege, is exactly what's caused the rise of hyper-conservatism in current Western society.

All the same things apply to "durrrrr white people make 20 times more money than black people." No, a double-digit number of white people make like 2000 times more money than everyone else combined, including all the other white people. Yet the people most prone to "identity politics" want to put down all white people (men specifically) as if Jeff Bezos having $150B means jack shit to anyone but Jeff Bezos. The real problem is class warfare, as it really always has been.

That said, I don't disagree with his basic assertion that so-called identity politics is really just plain ol' politics. Politics is simply large-scale people management, that's government. It's human, and our experiences are shaped by the groups to which we identify. It's the same argument pushing for more diversity in business and academics. It matters in politics too. Still, it takes time.
 
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Myzozoa

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Blegh. Well, I can't say I know British statistics specifically but I hate disingenuous feminist talking points. Women aren't individually paid less than men, once you control for all other factors.
im not gonna hash out the discussion about pay gap and education again, I have already hashed both of these topics on these forums fairly recently, in this thread with kilometer man in the case of a supposed gap in education between boys and girls in which boys are alleged to be favored at the expense of girls. in the case of the pay gap, this is something people (men) love to loudly and repetitively say doesn't exist, but all the evidence from studies says it does exist (though you may say that 6% is insignificant, you can say w.e you want with your opinions and are entitled to prioritize w.e issues youd like, idc), so enjoy those alternative facts if you're so upset by 'feminist talking points'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gender_pay_gap_in_the_United_States

"Any given raw wage gap can be dissected into an explained part, due to differences in characteristics such as education, hours worked, work experience, and occupation, and/or an unexplained part, which is typically attributed to discrimination.[32] This may be further explained when America takes into account that men are more likely to negotiate for higher pay. According to a study by Carnegie Mellon, when negotiating pay, 83% of men negotiated for a higher wage compared to the 58% of women who asked for more.[33] Researchers say that women who do request either a raise or a higher starting salary are more likely than men to be penalized for those actions.[34] Cornell University economists Francine Blau and Lawrence Kahn stated that while the overall size of the wage gap has decreased somewhat over time, the proportion of the gap that is unexplained by human capital variables is increasing."

However, numerous studies indicate that variables such as hours worked account for only part of the gender pay gap and that the pay gap shrinks but does not disappear after controlling for all human capital variables known to affect pay.[36][37][39][42][45] (<-thats 5 studies right there). Moreover, Gary Becker argued in a 1985 article that the traditional division of labor in the family disadvantages women in the labor market as women devote substantially more time and effort to housework and have less time and effort available for performing market work.[59] The OECD (2002) found that women work fewer hours because in the present circumstances the "responsibilities for child-rearing and other unpaid household work are still unequally shared among partners."

i agree with you about class warfare, and the neoliberalisms that may seem to get vomitted up in these discussions, including by me, is probably not conducive to a framework that promotes significant 'class warfare'. However, I don't see how acknowledging the reality, or even the plausible existence, of a wage gap excludes class warfare, since for me women are a class I actually want to involve in my warfare, and because when the oligarchy is putting their new buddy, that you hate so much on the supreme court, the voting body putting them up there has like 2 women and does it over sexual assault claims, probably cause like you, the senate finds their 'feminist talking points' too upsetting and jarring to their reality in which facts like the wage gap and sexual assault allegations can be dismissed away as just some another feminist conspiracy.

in b4 like 12 identical men, including at least 1 social forums mods, come in here to argue the wage gap doesnt exist, preferably and expectedly w youtube videos.
 

kilometerman

Banned deucer.
Very few are arguing that the wage gap doesn't exist at all, it's pretty obvious from the data that there is a 5 cent or so difference that remains after factoring in hours worked. And that 5 cent difference is still a problem but implying that that's more important than say the 50% difference between men and women graduation rates by 2021.

But I'm sure myo will just gish gallop and write a 5 paragraph essay that interestingly has 0 grammar or capitalization in it because he needs to maintain his status as Smogon's premier Leftie Internet Defense Force member
 

Mr.E

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I was just going to take a jab at supporting one's point by pointing out some dude well known enough to have a Wikipedia article offhandedly made an unsubstantiated remark 30+ years ago that happens to broadly apply. [I see Myzo copied straight off Wiki though, so shame on them I suppose.] Granted it's true, women still do a larger share of housework than men overall, but that's not exactly a work problem per se. I've always heard 3%-ish more than 5-6% but it's basically close enough to be statistical noise and there's no way to definitively say "yep, it's definitely because of blatant discrimination." Not to say small problems should be ignored but there are far more important battles worth waging than beating Joe Factory over the head about how Mr. Richy Richerson makes 5% more than Ms. Moneybags (and we don't even fully understand why).

That's why Joe Factory voted for Trump and the U.S. is in the mess it's in right now.
 
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