• Smogon Premier League is here and the team collection is now available. Support your team!

Is Unpredictability a Strategy?

Alchemator

Alchemator

my god if you don't have an iced tea for me when i
is a Forum Moderator Alumnusis a Top Smogon Media Contributor Alumnus
Hello and thank-you for coming to this thread! Please don't murder me since this is my first thread in Stark Mountain.

The point I wish to propose today is how far 'surprises' can get you in the D/P/Pt metagame. I was inspired to make this topic by a post in the "What teams do well..." thread which went along the lines of "All I see are the top 6 most used pokemon on the same team with the first moveset from the smogon analysis" and another poster commenting on how easy it would be for the former person to win all of their battles due to how 'standard' the team was.

So I thought, it is perfectly possible to run such a team and gain success but surely you would gain more success by 'tweaking' the movesets and EV Spreads. Such as putting Grass Knot on your Standard Leadzelf to beat Swampert leads or adding extra speed EVs to your Salamence to outspeed what likes to outspeed it after a Dragon Dance.

Now of course I make it sound as if changing the Smogon sets will make your life easier, however this could also resolve in a distinct lack of power in your Azelf against the Rotom formes or in the case of Salamence lacking the power to OHKO certain pokemon.

Hopefully I have made my point clear enough:
Can deviating from the norm make you one of the 'better players'?

Discuss
 
Actually, innovation is pretty much what defines the "Better Players". They have the skill and experience necessary to build solid movesets and EV spreads from scratch, with a specific purpose in mind. This allows them to build teams with a much higher level of synergy present than there would be if they just used the "bog standard" sets from the analysis. Sometimes the standard is what you need, but sometimes it isn't. I think this, combined with strong, consistent play is what really marks a top player.
 
Alchemator said:
Hello and thank-you for coming to this thread! Please don't murder me since this is my first thread in Stark Mountain.

The point I wish to propose today is how far 'surprises' can get you in the D/P/Pt metagame. I was inspired to make this topic by a post in the "What teams do well..." thread which went along the lines of "All I see are the top 6 most used pokemon on the same team with the first moveset from the smogon analysis" and another poster commenting on how easy it would be for the former person to win all of their battles due to how 'standard' the team was.

So I thought, it is perfectly possible to run such a team and gain success but surely you would gain more success by 'tweaking' the movesets and EV Spreads. Such as putting Grass Knot on your Standard Leadzelf to beat Swampert leads or adding extra speed EVs to your Salamence to outspeed what likes to outspeed it after a Dragon Dance.

Now of course I make it sound as if changing the Smogon sets will make your life easier, however this could also resolve in a distinct lack of power in your Azelf against the Rotom formes or in the case of Salamence lacking the power to OHKO certain pokemon.

Hopefully I have made my point clear enough:
Can deviating from the norm make you one of the 'better players'?

Discuss
Click to expand...

Well, yes and no.

If you design a set to counter a standard sets counters in the hopes of a lure and KO (such as Counter-Tar) then it will be weaker to stuff the standard set counters otherwise (without the speed, Tar has a hard time against Infernape and the like compared to normal DDTar).

However, if your team has a hard time with Scizor, Swampert, Hippowdon, etc (like Azelf or Lucario) then it's a good trade off.


Furthermore, if everyone started using "off-standard" sets, they would become the new standard and the counters to those would be more common causing the "old-standards" to come back. I think a good example is Magnezone usage and Skarmory with Shed Shell. As Shed Shell goes up, Magnezone goes down until people feel safe with Leftovers then Magnezone comes back up, in a cycle.
 
Of course deviating from the norm can make you a better player, but the set has to be viable in order to do so. A good example would be suicide leads who people used to laugh at for only being able to set SR and dying off afterward. But as their viability proved to be good, more and more people started using it to the point of becoming standard.
 
Game Freak201 said:
A good example would be suicide leads who people used to laugh at for only being able to set SR and dying off afterward. But as their viability proved to be good, more and more people started using it to the point of becoming standard.
Click to expand...
Ah yes I remember when people wondered why my Aerodactyl used taunt and stealth rock before it was the standard set.
I think that aiming for unpredictability is the starting point to discovering new Pokemon and sets.
 
Yes, however I believe that an unpredictable set must satisfy two criteria.

1. The benefits of using the unorthodox set must outweigh the benefits of using a more standard set. Choice Specs Gyarados is unpredictable, and may score a surprise kill, but it is overall inferior to the standard physical Gyarados.

2. The set must be useful even after the surprise is ruined. This mostly applies to shoddy as you will often face the same opponent more than once in a laddering session. Yes, that Choice Band Blissey nabs a surprise kill, but in all future battles against the same opponent it is useless, if not a liability.

The two go hand in hand pretty much since usually if the set fails to meet the 2nd criteria it also fails to meet the 1st and vice versa.
 
Unpredictability in terms of having a non-standard quirk move on your Pokemon solely for the surprise factor should be avoided in my opinion. The unpredictability of these surprise movesets naturally decreases over time, and if the number of surprise kills you get with a move cannot outweigh the helpfulness of the 'standard' move you've replaced (and they're generally standards for a reason - they're among the best moves for that particular slot), it is most definitely not worthwhile. Citing the OP's example of Grass Knot on Lead Azelf - yes, this will get you an OHKO on lead Swampert, but at what cost? What move do you replace? Do you replace Psychic, losing your STAB attack and your OHKO on lead Infernape / 2HKO on lead Aerodactyl? Do you forget Fire Blast, rendering you ineffective against the popular Steel-type leads of Metagross and Jirachi? Or do you drop either of Stealth Rock or Explosion, the two moves that define lead Azelf and are the crux of its suicide lead set?

As you can see, generally the move you're replacing to put on your 'surprise' move will have been more useful in most situations. If this surprise move truly outweighed the benefits of the popular move, then it would be quickly picked up upon and will actually become the new standard. Of course it's not actually quite as simple as that. For example, if your team also contains a Magnezone, and one of the aims of the team is to set up with Rock Polish Rhyperior or Dragon Dance Tyranitar, then perhaps getting that 'surprise' OHKO on one of their biggest checks is worth missing out super effective coverage on Steel-types that you can end up trapping and taking out with another Pokemon anyway.

If we're talking unpredictability as in using a Pokemon with numerous different and threatening sets, then yes, I'd say that's definitely an advantage. For example, if I bring my Gyarados into your Blissey, you can go to your HP Electric Vaporeon safe in the knowledge that next to nothing I do with my Gyarados is going to make that a bad choice. Gyarados is a very single-dimensional Pokemon in that it does one real thing and one real thing only well, and in this case that is sweep on the physical spectrum after boosting its stats with Dragon Dance. On the other hand, now if I bring my Salamence into your Blissey, you have far more reason for concern. Do you go to your Skarmory to take on a CB Outrage? Should you stay in to take the Specs Draco Meteor and not fall for your opponent's bluff? Perhaps you should stay in, in case it is a mixed set and will only Draco Meteor your physically inclined switch in... but what if your precious Blissey takes an Outrage or Brick Break to the face? Ah, let's Protect to scout it's move and see if it's CB or mixed... but then what if your opponent takes advantage of that free turn to Dragon Dance up?

The reason Salamence is such a deadly Pokemon is not because of its 600 BST, not because of its 135 base Attack or because of its 110 base Special Attack. No, it is the psychological advantage Salamence's user can gain over his opponent, and this can only be done because of the many different ways Salamence can be a threat and the many different Pokemon it can threaten - in short, its unpredictability. Tyranitar is another excellent example of this - CB, DD, Boah, Specs, Mixed?? So yes, I'd say that a Pokemon's own unpredictability is definitely an asset and can be used to tilt a battle's balance decidedly in your favour.
 
Straying from the normal, even with my most commonly used Pokemon, is a step in the right direction as long as the new changes work and make sense. I commonly switch moves, EV distribution, and the like on certain Pokemon. Six Standard Sets versus Six Standard Sets obviously isn't a bad way to play. But even altering a single move or a few dozen EVs may give that player an advantage used correctly. It not only implements the famous element of surprise, but, if the change was made, it obviously remained because it works. Changes such as these can't be used too carelessly however. Revamping entire sets and / or creating one of your own takes testing and understanding of what you're doing. The best 'deviations from the norm' are often small and yet come out with a bang. With a Pokemon completely standard with the exception of, for example, a single move. When that move bursts out it'll take the opponent off guard and usually deal a suprising amount of damage, literally and generally. I could give many examples, but lets just say that: At least half of the Pokemon on my teams have some sort of alteration from the standard variation of the set. This post obviously sends a different message of what Legacy Raider told you above me. Yet, I'll just leave it at this: Those little tweaks and quirks really helped me in the long run, and really helped me become a better battler (This is all from personal experience, of course.). These tweaks aren't just one-quick-fix. They take processes of elimination, experimentation, etc. Obviously less than what you would be required with when building a new set, but work is needed to make it the best it can be. However, things like this must be reworked to maintain the shock value if that's all your looking for.

But in short, yes. Being able to, as you say, deviate from the norm, and reset the "standards" in your favor does make you "better" than those who cannot. Knowing how to safely implement the element of surprise is an extremely valuable skill.
 
Easy. Be batshit crazy in tournaments and you'll either win spectacularly or lose spectacularly. But don't bet on "unpredictability" on the ladder, because you're bound to meet someone on the ladder more than once, and that first win will guarantee a couple losses later.
 
The problem comes when you get higher on the ladder. As stated, it's very likely to face the same people a couple time over. You're little gimmick is not gonna do well on the next couple time over.

But unpredictability can get you that surprise kill every once in a while, so I guess I shouldn't bash on it so quickly.
 
SDS pretty much summed up what I wanted to say. Unpredictability can be awesome in tournaments, (players such as Taylor are very good at this) as it can give you the edge, but it doesn't work so well on the ladder and it should be noted it can backfire on you in tournaments (sometimes simpler/common sets are better).
 
lucario is a prime example. Most opponents expect a swords dance version letting you net surprise kills with vaccum wave, shadow ball and aura sphere.
 
"dont try to predict, just be unpredictable" has pretty much always been the first piece of advice I've given to people who asked me for some..

I know I'm not adding much here, but I thought since this is something I have been known for (or was at one point) I thought I had better say something..

Have a nice day.
 
I've always found this good, too. But it really depends on what kind of person you're playing against: if you're playing a noob, I really wouldn't even bother with complex prediction. On the other hand, if you're playing someone really good, you should 'play like a noob' and cause your opponent to overpredict, netting yourself a few free turns or even kills. Ballsy 'noob moves' are quite hard to pull off, but easier if your opponent makes an otherwise good prediction.

For example, you have your Skarmory out against an Infernape, and he knows you have a Heatran waiting in the wings. He selects Close Combat to destroy the obvious Heatran switchin, so you use Brave Bird and OHKO Infernape while taking a small amount of damage.

If I can manage to do that, I'm sure a lot of other people can. In short, don't do the obvious thing.
 
In tournaments, chances are I will include innovative sets because in crucial matches like that, you only need to surface the suprise factor once in order to throw your opponent off-guard.

I think it was ipl who, during RSE, constantly told me how I was too predictable and used the standard stuff over and over again. With DPPt, I have since changed my approach on the game and now favour these innovative sets in vital matches.

Tyranitar (M) @ Leftovers
Ability: Sand Stream
EVs: 212 HP/104 Atk/96 Spd/96 SDef
Lonely nature (+Atk, -Def)
- Stone Edge
- Superpower
- Flamethrower
- Payback

I used this in the World Cup and it single-handedly won me the match against Jimbo; I would've otherwise lost had I not bluffed the CurseTar against Scizor. Now, it has lost its value in a sense that it is rather well-known now and opponents will opt to Bullet Punch instead of U-turn. But it only had to happen once against for instance Jimbo, and it did.
 
Of course a bit of creativity and doing things a little different can give you the edge, I don't think anyone will deny that. The problem is, people take it too far. People try to be creative for the sake of being creative and sacrificing effectiveness as a result.

Philip for example is a great example of a creative player who does it well. He like being creative for the sake of it but he gains from it because his sets are actually good and works with the rest of the team.

Other players however don't want to use gyara because it's predictable and uses Feraligator instead. They don't like CB scizor so they'll give it specs. Those occasions of creativity aren't praiseworthy in my book if they want to win. They're just outclassed and their creativity doesn't mean they'll strive.

I don't think unpredictability can be a strategy necessarily like how stall is a strategy or stath's offensive teams are a certain strategy. A team made around the theme of surrpise is not enough. I beleive where creativity and unpredictability should come in is if the set or the combinations are not prepared for correctly, then I think you have an edge. Effectiveness needs to invovled in the thought process though.
 
Unpredictable but not stupid. That is a good strategy. A viable unpredictable strategy will most likely win if the team can pull it off because of the shock factor.

However, innovation only works once.
 
Unpredictability is the prime reason why UU/NU seems so fresh. There is room in the lower tiers for experimentation without much fear for sweepers seting up within a turn (I'm talking about you Scizor, Gyarados, and Calm Minding Latias!)

There is a serene pleasure about creating your own team built with a custom balance.

As for it's effectiveness during battle, it's allows for proper mindgames against opponents who have common/standard teams that are easy to read.
 
Luring is definitely a good strategy. If you have a team with a main sweeper that is, for example, countered well by bulky waters, a lure Pokemon can be very effective for removing them. In that case you could use something like Mixed Metagross to lure in bulky waters but 2HKO them. An unpredictable Pokemon that I have found very effective is Choice Band Infernape, which does over 60% to Latias with U-turn and can 2HKO Tentacruel with Close Combat after Stealth Rock.
 
yea what legacy raider said

like uh, there was some discussion about specs mence or specs latias?

the main argument was that latias has 10 more points of base speed, but i would actually go with specsmence if i packed a spinner because

specs latias right, if it doesnt surf right away, the opponent could be like, ohhh, an latias, lemme bring in a tyranitar, snorlax, metagross, or scizor and pursuit it

or, ill bring in blissey cus it probably wont trick right away if it were choiced

specsmence on the other hand, the only one of those pokemon an opponent is likely to bring in is probably scizor unless ur ridiculously obvious, like

bringing in a salamence on a rotom form or hippowdon, it doesnt take a genius to figure out that ur gonna meteor

yea unpredictability is good but dont go overboard, like with mix ttar, dont think "ill go with hp grass in lieu of fire blast or ice beam or something, sure ill lose to skarmory forrestress and every other bulky fool out there but at least ill get the jump on swampert!"
 
Actually, after thinking about the momentum of a game, and the meta game as a whole (from the Sumo Wrestler and Duck thread), I feel Unpredictability is a good way to get momentum on your side by forcing your opponent to make a mistake and mispredict.

This can be essential in gaining a lead which good players can maintain and drive home for the total win.


But it comes at a cost since if you are predictably unpredictable, then you are either a) not being efficient in your team or b) being predictable which makes it harder to beat better players who are looking to catch you in a mistake.


It's all very interesting.
 
Mentioning unpredictability, like seriously. Why does nobody run Natural Gift on Gyarados? I'm dead serious, Gyarados is one of the best users of this attack. One of Gyarados's biggest problems is getting good type coverage on other water types. One way he can solve that problem is by running Natural Gift with a Liechi or Belue Berry (along with the standard Waterfall and Ice Fang).

This is great for two reasons. Currently nobody suspects this strategy at all. And this more often than not is able to completely maul one of Gyarados's counters, opening up a sweep.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top