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pookar said:
if i was a dickhead who assumed you didnt know shit about sabr, this is what i would have posted


however, this is what im going to post, because he is actually slightly above average in defense at 1st base. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=300&type=1&season=2009&month=11

just to explain why the first set of statistics is not right (well it is right, but unreliable) you cannot effectively use many sabr stats over one year, but multiple years just to sort out any anomalies. if you go to overbay's career UZR by year, he has a few -5.0 seasons, but usually around 1.5 which is about his average (0 is average)
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Flaw with that is UZR is the RBI of fielding stats. It should never be used as an end all be all metric. Did you hear about the Jason Bay controversy?

Speaking of controversies, WOW. Too bad for Galaragga. This incident is not over. Something drastic will happen (not necessarily the call being overturned).
 
the shit has hit the fans, so to speak. the negative press mobile has begun to move and it WILL force ol' fashioned alan h. selig into using replay, lest baseball continue to make a mockery of itself.
 
bwebber said:
Flaw with that is UZR is the RBI of fielding stats. It should never be used as an end all be all metric. Did you hear about the Jason Bay controversy?
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no i didnt hear about the Jason Bay controversy? theres not really anything wrong with UZR. its by far the best defensive statistic out there.. of course not all statistics are 100% but its the best anyone has so far
 
heres a good defensive statistic: watch the person field.

lost in the blown call nonsense is the unbelievable catch by austin jackson.

lets see UZR tell me he can catch that ball.
 
actually, quite correctly i might add, austin jackson is 7th in the MLB for center fielders this season in UZR.. behind Gutierrez, Pagan, Alex Rios and Marlon Byrd (and two other relative anomalies)

heres a good defensive statistic: watch the person field.
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Statistics is the science of making effective use of numerical data relating to groups of individuals or experiments. It deals with all aspects of this, including not only the collection, analysis and interpretation of such data, but also the planning of the collection of data, in terms of the design of surveys and experiments.[1]
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vision =/= numerical data. try again.
 
aamto said:
the shit has hit the fans, so to speak. the negative press mobile has begun to move and it WILL force ol' fashioned alan h. selig into using replay, lest baseball continue to make a mockery of itself.
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You just cant do that though, if you have replay for everything then its not baseball anymore... I talked about this earlier with a few people, they should allow 2 challenges per game for coaches on plays that are deemed unreviewable (calls down the 1st base line, etc.). If you have replay for every bad 1st base call umps make then it just wont be baseball anymore, you need that human element in baseball and they'll never change it
 
no here's being a tool: ever thinking one stat (or even a group of stats) can paint an entire picture.

ESPECIALLY with defence
 
[21:41] <+MATAMATO> the ump has a badass handlebar mustache too

oh i agree. i agree.

as far as instant replay is concerned, its a 10 second deal. cmon, the scoreboard is replaying that play at comerica. there's your instant replay! but in all seriousness, the human element means shit to me if they're gonna continue to butcher calls. calling balls and strikes is enough. let the umps be backed by technology so that we don't allow something like this to influence another world series.
 
Jackal said:
no here's being a tool: ever thinking one stat (or even a group of stats) can paint an entire picture.

ESPECIALLY with defence
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yep because i clearly said that UZR is the definitive stat and should never be overlooked.

I said it's the best defensive statistic out there. Because it is. Did i ever say it is better than watching a guy play? No. Do you want me to say something ignorant for real? You probably have no idea how the statistic works and blindly dismissed it. There are plenty of 'flashy' plays that other players can make without being flashy because they are simply better at defense and have better range.

Even the creators of UZR say it isn't perfect, but it is obviously a better statistic than errors or assists (or putouts, for that matter).
 
I really hope they do implement the whole challenge thing using instant replay, however I think they should make you not allowed to challenge balls and strikes. That is where I do agree it is up to the ump. However on a call like this it is necessary.

And that's a great argument pookar, sabermetrics are far to advanced for me man my puny brain cannot comprehend them!
 
pookar does make a good argument so your sarcasm, i think, is unwarranted. it is ridiculous to ignore uzr as a defensive metric, but it should be taken with a grain of salt: the only statistically significant sample size is over a three year period, amongst other quantifiers.

the thing is, it is a ridiculous and completely unfair stereotype of sabrmetricians being "all stats". any good sabermetrician worth his salt not only knows the stats, but can correctly apply the stats, meaning they can understand its limitations. all you're doing jackal by saying that stat geeks think stats can "paint the whole picture" is pushing the agendas of insecure sports writers who lambaste the movement for no good reason, other than it makes their player analysis and articles about "jeter's intangibles" look irrelevant (which they largely are). it's like saying all asians don't know how to drive.

i have never met or read of a stat-head who thinks stats are the end all be all and without imperfection (ESPECIALLY defensive metrics). if they think uzr is perfect, then they are the uninformed minority which is not representative of the population.

and yeah, i am so furious over that botched call. it makes me sick to my stomach.
 
Jackal said:
I really hope they do implement the whole challenge thing using instant replay, however I think they should make you not allowed to challenge balls and strikes. That is where I do agree it is up to the ump. However on a call like this it is necessary.
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Balls and strikes are subjective based on a variable strike zone. Unless you were to define it based on each and every player, there's no way a replay would help at all (except on possible foul tips) anyway.
 
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5246454

NEW YORK -- Major League Baseball was still deciding Thursday morning whether to review the umpire's blown call that cost Armando Galarraga a perfect game.

Commissioner Bud Selig has the power to reverse umpire Jim Joyce's missed call that came with two outs in the ninth inning Wednesday night in Detroit. Joyce ruled Cleveland's Jason Donald safe, then admitted he got it wrong and tearfully apologized in person to the pitcher.
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etc etc i hope they do it
 
I don't completely dismiss UZR... I am just stating it is not a be all and end all metric, not even close.

I feel like all sabr people drink from the same hypocritical fountain... you guys all make statements and back them up with UZR and play these off as facts, but then when it comes time to analyze UZR itself you are all the first to admit it is flawed, isn't end all and be all etc. If that is the case, then don't use it to back up your original claims! Or instead word it in a better way, where it doesnt seem like x is true because of statistic x, which is how you guys word it 80% of the time in my experience, but rather a statistic is one of several reasons x is the best.

Also I really love the arbitrary "unless the sample size is 3 years it is not big enough".
1) wow, stats people using completely arbitrary numbers!
2) a players defense has a chance of being much better three years ago than it was today, and when im talking about how good a player is at defense, I am talking about his ability to go out there and perform today. Age is a big factor in this. If Vernon Wells was still playing CF last year as he did 3 years ago were looking at a completely different Toronto Blue Jays season.
 
Jumpman16 said:
i'm still laughing at this, btw, like literally i lol every time. i want to copy this post and put it (and only it) into the greatest hits
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Yes.

I can't believe this would happen with two outs left in the nineth. You would really think he would get the benefit of the doubt at that point. Galarraga has been classy about it, but he must be heartbroken over it. Bud Selig should at least add him to the list of perfect games with an asterisk.
 
Kevin Garrett said:
Yes.

I can't believe this would happen with two outs left in the nineth. You would really think he would get the benefit of the doubt at that point. Galarraga has been classy about it, but he must be heartbroken over it. Bud Selig should at least add him to the list of perfect games with an asterisk.
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What I dont understand here is why Joyce didnt even think to give Galarrga the benefit of the doubt here. He had to have known he had a perfect game on the line, and even if it was a tie at the bag I would think you still gotta give that to the pitcher... If only Cabrera didnt fumble it at first and make a half assed throw this probably wouldnt even be a debate today, Galarrga would have his perfect game and it would be the first time 3 perfect games happened in a season and the third in a 24 day span
 
no, you don't "have" to give the play to the pitcher, you make the right call. joyce said he was convinced he made the right call until shown otherwise. problem is, it really wasn't that close a play (probably harder for the umpire than we think but still a play they get right 999/1000 times) that he must have been looking to call him safe rather than out before the play even completed. given joyce's apparent history of "great umpiring," that probably wasn't the cause. he just somehow missed it. tough day at the office, i would imagine.

for the record, i am 100% against selig overturning this play. sets up a bad precedent. these kind of blown calls happen in just about every mlb game (the twins lost a game last night to bad umpiring, for example), the only reason this is so blown up is because of the circumstance. you can put an asterisk next to galarraga's name in coop with the first 28 out perfect game but you cannot reverse the call and take away trevor crowe's ab.
 
The draft is on and nobody's posting?!

Barret Loux for the D-backs. Ugh. Bad pick.

Edit: Ahahahaha, I feel for White Sox fans. Chris Sale has got the worst mechanics I have ever seen. He won't make it to the big leagues.
 
amazed by the strasburg debut. against the pirates, sure...but no walks in a major league debut for someone who's had to deal with all this pressure is damn impressive, ignoring the 14 strikeouts.
 
Yeah, the 14 strikeout game was incredible. It's always nice to see a young guy come up and live up to the hype. It's only one game, but this guy has the potential to be the next great pitching star.
 
aamto said:
amazed by the strasburg debut. against the pirates, sure...but no walks in a major league debut for someone who's had to deal with all this pressure is damn impressive, ignoring the 14 strikeouts.
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I fear he makes the Nats an actual threat every fifth day. If he and Harper turn out to be the real deal, I don't like how things are going for my Phils.

I felt this would be the perfect place for my first post on Smogon because I love baseball more than pretty much anything.

GO PHILLIES!
 
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