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Sports NBA Thread: 2023-2024 Season

Green is where I mainly point the finger. Get rid of him. He's nothing but an expensive liability who is now old and can't do nothing but pass and make the occasional good defensive play
 
DerrickRose said:
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(4) Los Angeles Clippers versus Dallas Mavericks (5) III – Revenge of the Luke

“We all know Timmy’s not shooting the ball well. Maybe we’ll watch Major League and get some Kentucky Fried Chicken and put that in his locker.” – Jason Kidd

My cat makes her own pick!

This will be the third time these two teams play in the first round within five years, and their games have almost always been close. Both teams have some of the most prolific isolation players in the league in Kawhi and Luka. Despite the shuffling of the rosters since the second meeting, I feel both teams still have plenty ways to exploit each other.

Luka is still expected to perform very well here. Kawhi/Paul are three years older, and Los Angeles doesn’t have many excellent on-ball defenders. Maybe only Mann can really stand a chance of bothering Luka. He’s certainly going to hunt for Harden, Zubac, and anyone not Kawhi/Paul. Kawhi is easily capable of doing the same thing to Dallas as he did in 2021. Kawhi can easily target Kyrie, Luka, or Hardaway Jr. That’s primarily what makes their games so close. Neither team can hide bad defenders consistently for 48 minutes.

So, this is going to come down to the adjustments mid-series and who can win on the margins. Which team is more successful with a big? Which team is more successful with small ball? Which team is better at preventing their lesser defenders from being exploited on defense? I can only theorize on how it could play out.

If Zubac can play well in this series on both ends, Los Angeles can force Dallas to play bigger. If Kleber can hang with Zubac and do okay on Kawhi switches, this will force Los Angeles to play smaller. Personally, I feel Dallas has the advantage in this case. They have become a faster team, and much of their growth in defense is attributed to a combination of Washington, Gafford, and Kleber. Gafford has the size, and Washington/Kleber have the switchability and length to contrast. Los Angeles’ small ball has gotten less effective over the years despite those line-ups being their best advantage, and Zubac is the only real size they have. I don’t think Plumlee/Theis is frontline that can contend with Dallas’s youth, talent, and speed. How effective Zubac can be versus Gafford/Kleber/Washington/Lively in their roles will decide one of the larger margins of the series. It’s an interesting case of youth/talent versus experience

The perimeter has another interesting battle of the margins. How you feel about Harden’s and Kyrie’s ability to perform in the postseason should answer who you should favor. We can expect Los Angeles to attack and pressure Kyrie/Luka all series in a battle of attrition and exploit Kyrie’s size. We can also expect vice versa when it comes to Harden’s own defense reputation. Los Angeles has three isolation guys, though, and they’re all 6’5” or taller. Does Kyrie’s size matter? Is Harden going to be aggressive? Quite honestly, asking me to trust Kyrie’s ability to hold up against three opposing isolation players bigger than him is a tall task. Expecting Harden to have a good series period may even be an even taller task.

The only other margins to consider are general team stats. Dallas plays faster and gets more threes up but doesn’t shoot them as efficiently. Los Angeles shoots a higher efficiency in threes but doesn’t take as many. Faster pace favors Dallas, slower pace favors Los Angeles, and the team who controls the pace more will typically be better in isolation which is up in the air as far as which team will be better at it over a seven-game series. One does have to wonder how well Kawhi/Paul/Harden can hold up for a long series. Kawhi has health concerns and Harden has playoff demons. I can at least be assured Luka and Kyrie will bring it all the way to game seven on the road. They have before.

The only other x-factor I haven’t talked about is Westbrook, and he should dominate any minutes with Luka and Kyrie off the floor. He is free to attack Hardaway Jr. until his heart is content, and he may even be much for Irving. It’s unknown how well Westbrook can potentially play in a series like this, but more turnovers favor the faster paced team. He may be a very risky x-factor to consider either way.

I think Dallas has more answers while Los Angeles has more questions. I trust Dallas’ ability to play big and small over the course of a series, and I like the speed and athleticism their small ball line-ups have over Los Angeles. If Kawhi also isn’t fully healthy, advantage for Dallas.

Dallas wins if: Kawhi can’t get healthy (again). Harden gets exploited on defense and can’t escape his playoff demons (again). Dallas’s line-up versatility and flexibility help them make better in-game adjustments. Luka and Kyrie simply out-isolate Kawhi/Paul/Harden.

Los Angeles wins if: Kawhi is the best player of the series. Zubac has successful play, and maybe even Theis finds a way to contribute. Kyrie cannot escape the relentless attack of Harden, Paul, or Kawhi. Luka gets tired and becomes less efficient as the pace of the series slows down. Gafford, Lively, and Washington are too new to the playoffs to hang with experienced veterans. Dallas’ role players can’t make shots out of Luka/Kyrie traps.

Dallas in seven.

(3) Minnesota Timberwolves versus (6) Phoenix Suns

“Cheatin’ ass refs.” – Anthony Edwards

This matchup will require Minnesota to change their style of defense to an extent if they want to win.

Minnesota heavily relies on its defense more than the average team to win games as they rank below average offensively. They tend to commit many turnovers and only have one above-average decision maker in Conley. Edwards is a fantastic athlete but most of his scoring is through his physicality and control, not playmaking. He has limitations in making cross court passes, and when faced with a crowd, he gets tunnel vision. Vogel has picked up on this throughout their three regular season games.

They rely on drop-coverage since Gobert has the size to the protect the paint and KAT isn’t as good chasing perimeter guys. This sadly plays into Phoenix’s hands as their offense prefers to take mid-range shots and above-the-break threes… the two things Minnesota concedes.
I don’t see Minnesota winning unless they do something different. KAT is foul-prone and certainly will not excel in a heavy switching, blitzing defensive scheme. Gobert has his moments but he is best near the rim. So, Phoenix is already expected to be very comfortable from the get-go. That doesn’t mean Minnesota can’t come up with a blitz scheme that works, but for three off-the-dribble shooters, guys like McDaniels/Alexander-Walker will need to work hard. I may also consider switching KAT for Anderson in at the four.

Then you have Conley’s size. He’s also one of the older players between both teams. Conley is the best passer and decision maker for Minnesota and is their best bet at preventing turnovers. If he’s exploited by Booker or Beal? He’s now a liability and all that’s really left advantage wise is Edwards, and he struggled against Phoenix this series. Edwards will need to figure out playmaking to make the series work in Minnesota’s favor

The only way I see Minnesota standing a chance is through their rebounding, physicality, and improved playmaking. They must turn this series into a rock fight, and the longer it goes, the more I would favor Minnesota. They have great perimeter defenders who may be good enough to fight over screens and chase Phoenix’s big three enough for Gobert and KAT to take care of the glass. They may also want to look at the film of that Clippers game where Phoenix fell behind 30 due to Zubac’s presence. If Gobert or KAT can get Nurkic in foul trouble or score over him, then Minnesota will have a formula for beating Phoenix. KAT also needs to play better than he’s ever played, because his playoff demons haven’t escaped him.

Phoenix wins if: Their big three is too comfortable scoring outside the paint, Conley is a liability, and KAT/Gobert are schemed out on defense. Edwards’s playmaking is limited, and he can only rely on tough shot making.

Minnesota wins if: Phoenix can’t handle the physicality and KAT/Gobert dominate the paint. Edwards and KAT slowly learn to beat Vogel’s schemes. Gobert/KAT/Anderson find a way to blitz and force turnovers. McDaniels/Alexander-Walker navigate screens like champs.

Phoenix in six.

(4) Cleveland Cavaliers versus (5) Orlando Magic

“We don’t have guys that start shit, but we have guys that don’t run from shit.” – J.B. Bickerstaff

Concrete analysis on this is tough because their regular season matchups missed key players here and there. Cleveland also has had fluctuation of line-ups throughout the season that make them near impossible to pin down. What is Cleveland’s identity? All I can tell is that they flourished when Allen and Mobley didn’t play together.

Both teams are long, rebound well, and protect the paint. They are similar in defensive prowess. Cleveland has the better offense which shouldn’t be too surprising. They have shooters and top scoring guards, and that is the key edge that will likely decide the series. Orlando has the biggest % differential when examining paint scoring and outside paint scoring. If Cleveland finds a way to shoot consistently outside, they should be fine.

Suggs is a great defender, but Mitchell and Garland averaged 25+ points when they played this team in the regular season at least. Orlando would need exceptional perimeter defense to keep up with Cleveland’s outside shooting. I will admit there is trepidation in trusting Cleveland’s guards a second time around which is why Orlando has a decent shot at winning this series.

So, the winner hinges on how you feel about both backcourts. Orlando has the physicality and size to win any rock fight, and Cleveland has the finesse to outshoot you. I choose Cleveland solely because of intangibles: homecourt advantage, experience, and Mitchell’s explosiveness.

Cleveland wins if: Garland and Mitchell can’t be contained. Orlando is unable to exploit size mismatches due to Cleveland packing the paint. Cleveland shoots a high percentage outside the paint. Mobley/Allen don’t get in each other’s way.

Orlando wins if: Banchero has a coming out playoff party. Garland/Mitchell can’t handle the physicality. Cleveland can’t find a winning line-up, nor have an identity this long into the Mobley/Allen era.

Cleveland in seven.

(3) Milwaukee Bucks versus (6) Indiana Pacers

“I told [Bucks ownership] when they called, ‘I don’t understand why you’re doing this.’ And one of the things they said was, ‘Well it doesn’t matter. We’ve done it now and we want you.’ And that was a tough one. That’s where you had the hesitation.” – Doc Rivers

I knew even one day before the regular season Milwaukee was in trouble. The moment Terry Stotts voluntarily left the staff meant something.

Things don’t look good for Milwaukee at first glance. Giannis may not be ready early in the series. How is Milwaukee without Giannis? In the aggregate, With Lillard, Lopez, and Middleton on but Giannis off, they have a paltry -20.8 net rating.

The key to Milwaukee winning is through their ball screen defense. Beasley and Lillard are exploited and cannot hang with Haliburton for a series. This is where Beverly comes in. Beverly is a hound dog in perimeter defense, and Haliburton’s numbers have slightly dropped since his hamstring injury. Milwaukee’s best chance outside of a healthy Giannis hangs on their only true guard defender. Haliburton is going to see less resistance than Lillard between the two teams, so it would help to even the odds on the perimeter if you can make Haliburton feel uncomfortable.

Siakam/Turner and Portis/Lopez is a great frontline matchup. Both have an interest mix of defense/offensive strengths. Turner is the more athletic, aggressive defender while Lopez is a better shooter but isn’t as good in space. Siakam is more versatile than Portis while Portis is more offensively skilled. Neither team has played since Indiana made the trade for Siakam, so I consider it a wash for now. Whichever two is more efficient however is a great x-factor for the series.

The only other big factor I see is pace. Milwaukee has improved in their transition defense since acquiring Doc Rivers, but they still have bad foot speed as a team, and Indiana is the fastest team in the league as they run on made baskets. Even if Milwaukee finds offensive flow between Dame/Middleton/Lopez/Portis, they still must play good transition defense for 48 minutes. Perhaps they opt to post Middleton/Lopez/Portis more to slow the pace. Lillard is still dynamite in his own right, but he’s had a funky season offensively.

Rick Carlisle is also a way superior coaching mind than Doc Rivers, so any hopes in Milwaukee getting intangibles outside of homecourt and a healthy Giannis is sunk.

Milwaukee wins if: Beverly makes Haliburton uncomfortable, Milwaukee finds a way to slow the pace, and Portis/Lopez become a great frontline defense all-around.

Indiana wins if: Haliburton cooks despite Beverly. Turner has better games than Lopez. Siakam has better games than Portis. Indiana’s pace is too much.

Indiana in six.
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Great post. I need to know the name of this intelligent analyst kitten immediately.

DerrickRose said:
Green is where I mainly point the finger. Get rid of him. He's nothing but an expensive liability who is now old and can't do nothing but pass and make the occasional good defensive play
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I agree but his issues are mostly off the court. On the court he had his best season in years and is the only semi-reliable non-curry guy on the team other than rookie pod.

It's here. It feels like Denver v LA was just a couple days ago, and know we have it this time in the first round. I'm sure most polls on Instagram will be split 50/50 but honestly I think Denver still takes this in 6. Each team's roster has hardly changed, and while LA might get some close home wins fueled by the crowd this is Denver's series to lose. I'm hype.
 
DerrickRose said:
Green is where I mainly point the finger. Get rid of him. He's nothing but an expensive liability who is now old and can't do nothing but pass and make the occasional good defensive play
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No way. Green is still a good player. Problem is the warriors don’t have anyone else that can create their own offense. It showed in the warriors record vs. top records in the league.

They either need to accept the rebuild, developing their young core players (let them play more, championship aspirations be damned), or go all in making a run at another star. Paul George, Lebron James, and Giannis come to mind. They could all be out in the first round. Call them up.
 
bdt2002 said:
  • Big-market teams beating up on smaller market teams repeatedly in the Play-In brackets, followed by recurring debates across sports news sites on which of these four is "most likely to go all the way?" (notice how all four have that one X-Factor player they rely on- Lebron, Curry, Jimmy, and Joel respectively). A rising Thunder team wins against the regressing Warriors who are past their prime in six while the 76ers fail to make it past the Celtics in the playoffs for the fourth time since 2017-18 and (unfortunately) once again fail to make it past the Conference Semifinals during this time frame.
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I'm not about to go out and say I was expecting perfect playoff bracket or anything close to it, but I've been watching two things today. The weather is one of them (usual spring thunderstorm stuff, nothing too out of the ordinary), but the much more relevant thing is how badly the Warriors fell apart. Credit to Sacramento for basically having Golden State's number for most of the game- I'll swallow my pride and admit I've underrated your team more than once before. As for this portion of my bracket that the Warriors were on as my play-in 8 seed in the West, that spot's going to go to one of either the Pelicans or the Kings. My question is less of who's going to win this- I think it could go either way- and more about who the Thunder would rather play in the First Round.
 
Green is still able to play for a few more years but he's caused enough damage to not make any upside worth it imo. Doesn't matter how good you are if you still get suspended and thrown out more than even 'Sheed. Just get younger while you can.
 
I will comment and say that I prior to this year have thought draymond is overrated and a net negative but he’s just one of the best defensive isolation players of all time and plays pretty good zone too. His offense outside of passing is below average but you can plug and play him and he’ll do well when he was a free agent last year I wanted him on the mavs very badly
 
Also I think we'd sing a different tune if Curry just came out and said yeah, Green is a liability. His frustration in the Orlando game was enough for me. Even if Curry won't say it.

He gets injured more and more, tossed more, punched a teammate off the team, ruined the team chemistry, and is constantly a huge distraction overall.

Nobody is worth that headache unless they're Michael Jordan.
 
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RaikouLover said:
I feel bad for Steph. It’s Steph and the bums. He has no help out there.

Klay is washed.
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I'd feel bad if he put pressure on the front office. Man has literally zero leadership skills. You hardly ever hear him talk about things.

Dray punched the skills out of Poole like a Monstar and he didn't even have to apologize for it publicly. The whole organization is too soft to make moves they have to. Klay and Dray should've been coming off the bench and being legit vet presences for at least 2 years by now.

Kerr can't be seriously trotting out lineups with Looney's 20 rebounds and 2 points per game while ALSO having Dray playing. It doesn't work. That's how Steph is doubled every single possession.

Matter of fact, last year's Game 7 against the Kings themselves is a great example of how Steph isn't really rallying anyone.

The front office is beyond risk-averse too.

They posted that beautiful story with him making sure to talk instead of Dray, dropping like, a million points on his own, and Kerr congratulating him and telling the team "See, this is why you're champions."

There are so many things wrong with this, I can't even begin to dissect this story again (I did it on another forum).

Just terrible management on all levels. The Warriors need to rebuild and do it properly. The whole "two timelines" bullshit didn't fly. Kerr can't develop talent like that. This is why Moody is rotting in GS and Kuminga isn't unlocked by now.
 
Volt-Ikazuchi said:
I'd feel bad if he put pressure on the front office. Man has literally zero leadership skills. You hardly ever hear him talk about things.

Dray punched the skills out of Poole like a Monstar and he didn't even have to apologize for it publicly. The whole organization is too soft to make moves they have to. Klay and Dray should've been coming off the bench and being legit vet presences for at least 2 years by now.

Kerr can't be seriously trotting out lineups with Looney's 20 rebounds and 2 points per game while ALSO having Dray playing. It doesn't work. That's how Steph is doubled every single possession.

Matter of fact, last year's Game 7 against the Kings themselves is a great example of how Steph isn't really rallying anyone.

The front office is beyond risk-averse too.

They posted that beautiful story with him making sure to talk instead of Dray, dropping like, a million points on his own, and Kerr congratulating him and telling the team "See, this is why you're champions."

There are so many things wrong with this, I can't even begin to dissect this story again (I did it on another forum).

Just terrible management on all levels. The Warriors need to rebuild and do it properly. The whole "two timelines" bullshit didn't fly. Kerr can't develop talent like that. This is why Moody is rotting in GS and Kuminga isn't unlocked by now.
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The warriors criticism is insane. They have 4 championships in 8 years. They are by far the most successful franchise of the past decade.

Draymond is not an on-court liability. On the contrary; he is still one of the best defenders in the NBA.

The warriors problem is they have financially taken care of their vets, who are now unfortunately overpaid. Steph is a declining all-star and Klay is a more like a vet minimum rotation player at this point.

They likely missed their opportunity to pivot. The Spurs in 2012-2014 got a second wind with the emergence Kawhi Leonard. The hope was that Wiggins & Kuminga could blossom similarly but both have underachieved. And Wiseman turned out to be a bust.
 
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Jimmy getting injured was a huge deflator because now Celtics are guaranteed to get through to round 2 regardless if the Bulls or Heat win the play-in. Celtics are a -220 favorite to get to the final which is kinda disgusting odds. Vegas is essentially saying nobody is stopping the Celtics in the East.

Some quick predicts about saturday games (series):

Magic vs Cavs: A very weak eastern conference I think Magic get by, I haven't liked Cavs as of recently. Franz and Paulo are the future and they have a pretty deep team. Going with Magic to win the series.

Suns vs Timberwolves: Honestly I think the suns are a bust when it comes to their Center spot, so I think KAT and Gobert will really show that to be a problem you cannot hide. Going with Timberwolves

76ers vs Knicks: Prob one of the best series this round, I think it'll be tough and it will depend on how close is Embiid to 100%. I think Knicks pull it out though since I don't think any one on the team can guard Brunson. Going with Knicks to win the series.

Lakers vs Nuggets: I think this is pretty ez, Lakers are worse than last year but it really depends on if Jamal Murray is healthy or not, I think if he's not healthy it'll be a longer series but I think it's a series that's already written. Nuggets win.
 
awyp said:
Jimmy getting injured was a huge deflator because now Celtics are guaranteed to get through to round 2 regardless if the Bulls or Heat win the play-in. Celtics are a -220 favorite to get to the final which is kinda disgusting odds. Vegas is essentially saying nobody is stopping the Celtics in the East.
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as a celtics fan this bracket was so beneficial when we were already heavy favorites in the east. only three teams i was worried about were miami, new york and philly. miami wouldn't have beat us but it could've turned into a very ugly six or seven game series very quickly, especially with how rusty our team will be to start playoffs. Philly rests so heavily on joels health (which does not look good) but when healthy i think they're top 3 in the east (alongside NY). NY is a little less scary with randle out but that will be an intense series if they make it through that gauntlet of a bracket, brunson is so good and guys like hartenstein and hart seem to always kill us when we play.

our situation rn reminds me a lot of golden state in 2022 being heavily benefited by the rest advantage over the east. our failure to close out milwaukee and miami in 5-6 just gave us no legs in the finals and among other things was a big factor in our loss. I can completely understand anyone favoring denver to repeat but the west is so brutal that we'll be at a massive rest advantage if we make it to the finals.
 
RaikouLover said:
The warriors criticism is insane. They have 4 championships in 8 years. They are by far the most successful franchise of the past decade.
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And by sticking to that idea, they've missed the transition window that led to the current situation.

The sooner Klay realizes he'll need to take the same route Westbrook did and embrace his role as a 6th man, the better.

Dray by himself isn't terrible on-court, but it's well known he's not a scoring threat. The problem is pairing him up with Looney. You can't have 2 non-scoring players in a starting lineup, and Klay being that erratic.
What happens is that Curry just gets doubled with absolute impunity the whole game, which wears anyone down.

Klay and Dray should be on team-friendly deals by now. They're already got their bags. They gotta pass the torch at some point.
 
RaikouLover said:
The warriors criticism is insane. They have 4 championships in 8 years. They are by far the most successful franchise of the past decade.
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All dynasties are open to criticism. We are in 2024. The truth can't be unsaid because of the past.

Draymond is not an on-court liability.
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So why hasn't he been on the court as much in the last 24 months? How do you define liability?

I define it as, if you end up playing less and less and literally destroying team chemistry, you are a liability. I do not care about your on court stats at that point. You can repeat his stats a thousand times, and I'll point you to Curry being in tears over yet another ejection 2 minutes in a game. That matters a shit ton more than his stats.

You find Warriors criticism insane, I find Warrior apologeticness even more insane. You admit Curry declined but not Green? Are you Draymond????
 
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DerrickRose said:
All dynasties are open to criticism. We are in 2024. The truth can't be unsaid because of the past.

So why hasn't he been on the court as much in the last 24 months? How do you define liability?

I define it as, if you end up playing less and less and literally destroying team chemistry, you are a liability. I do not care about your on court stats at that point. You can repeat his stats a thousand times, and I'll point you to Curry being in tears over yet another ejection 2 minutes in a game. That matters a shit ton more than his stats.

You find Warriors criticism insane, I find Warrior apologeticness even more insane. You admit Curry declined but not Green? Are you Draymond????
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Your Warriors posts are insane. There’s no need for “apologeticness” regarding the most successful dynasty of the past decade. The proof is in the hardware.

Yes, Steph on the court has declined more than Draymond. Steph has a lot further to fall. Went from being top 2-3 player in the league to top 10-12. Steph is still amazing, but is in decline. Draymond went from being the best defender in the league to.. still a top five defender in the league. He was never a scorer.
 
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(2) New York Knicks versus (7) Philadelphia Sixers

“It’s like that Spongebob meme when Squidward is looking out the window and sees Spongebob and Ptraick having fun. Mikal is Squidward.” – Josh Hart on Mikal Bridges not being in the playoffs.

I’ve been back and forth with this series more than any other. Both teams are nearly evenly matched in my eyes even considering New York’s injured players. For me, much of this depends on Embiid’s health. He didn’t look right in the Play-in game, and his injury history in the playoffs is extensive. It also doesn’t help that New York is one of the most physically imposing teams to face. Hartenstein played Embiid single coverage in January, and New York lived to see another day. He may be solid enough to not require constant help which makes Maxey the only player who can create in those situations.

Problem is, I’m not entirely sure anyone on New York can effectively stop Maxey. They rank in the bottom ten in pick and roll defense, and Philadelphia has plenty of bodies to throw at Brunson. We can start with the length and tenacity of Batum all the way to Oubre Jr. Brunson is going to see a lot of hands, and he will need to navigate the offense much on his own without Randle. He’s certainly capable, but on his own against length?

The central question to me is who can win more of the battles when Brunson meets Embiid between the paint and three-point line? Brunson is going to see length, with hopes to attack Maxey as much as he can, while Embiid, who possibly is limited, will need to be comfortable guarding in space, deal with physicality and be a main part of the offense on the other end. There is no possible way to know who will be more comfortable in this series between the two stars, and New York still has Maxey to worry about. I feel Brunson will face better defenders than Maxey.

With that said, the outside margins feel nearly split too. New York is the #1 offensive rebounding team, but Embiid is the best rebounder there is despite Philadelphia not being such a hot defensive rebounding team. Rebounding is one area that can tip the scales in New York if they can manage it. Philadelphia is #4 at forcing turnovers while New York is closer to the bottom third. The difference in forcing turnovers also matches their respective paces, so if Brunson becomes fatigued or overworked and starts fumbling, that tips the scales in Philadelphia’s favor.

There truly is no indicator to me on who wins this. All is dependent on the health of Embiid and the comfort of the point guards on both ends. Whoever is more efficient on both ends between this trio will ultimately win the series, but I see it going the long haul. Flip a coin. As for me, I’ll just let my cat choose for me.

New York wins if: Embiid was clearly in no physical condition to handle playoff basketball. Brunson manages to get Batum and other lengthy defenders off him and successfully attack Maxey. New York beats Philadelphia on the glass, take care of the possessions, and slow the pace down significantly. The supporting cast of New York play good advantage basketball and physical defense.

Philadelphia wins if: Maxey cannot be contained. Embiid is at least 70%. Brunson is bothered by traps and lengthy screen navigators. Philadelphia’s supporting cast can score comfortably even if Embiid is not doubled.

New York in seven.

(2) Denver Nuggets versus (7) Los Angeles Lakers

“Being famous, I think some people like it. I don’t, really. When I finish my career, I really wish nobody knows me, and I really wish my kid or kids in the future really remember me as a dad, not as a basketball player.” – Nikola Jokic

Los Angeles has a better shot at this than people realize. I don’t expect them to win the series, but I also don’t expect a sweep. Russell has had an offensive awakening, LeBron is usually at his best in the first round unlike the injury he was hiding last year (or so he implied), and the team has found an offensive identity they haven’t had for years. They became a great offensive juggernaut while shooting lights out from behind the arc. LeBron has also improved as a jump shooter this year.

Los Angeles needs to keep Russell and Reaves on the floor as much as possible. Russell was played off the court last year, and it gave Murray chances to rest on defense. If both manage to stay on the floor longer, Murray worked significantly less on defense. Sure, LeBron can hunt Murray, but it’s more work for him if he not only has to worry about LeBron, but also Reaves/Russell.

Los Angeles was beat in transition every game in last year's series. This year, Los Angeles is 27th in transition defense. During the three regular season matchups, Denver was 27-10 in the last 5 minutes of each game. I don’t think Los Angeles will magically and substantially improve in these areas overnight, so their main hope is to outshoot Denver with their newly found offensive flow. Can they sustain that shooting over the course of a series?

Darvin Ham also hasn’t exactly solved the Jokic problem, but he seems intent on having Hachimura on him with Davis lurking off Gordon. The only other option that might have a chance of working is giving LeBron a shot.

These are only the possible adjustments I can think of from Los Angeles that can be worked on. It’ll still be a competitive series. Ultimately, I don’t trust Russell and Reaves to hold up defensively over the course of a series, and Murray’s defense isn’t enough to tip the scales for me.

Denver wins if: Jokic bullies AD again, beats him in transition again, kills them with passes again, and Russell/Reaves can’t stay on the court.

Los Angeles wins if: Everyone from LeBron to Russell to Reaves can’t miss. Los Angeles finds a way to improve their transition defense or keep Denver in a slugfest. Murray is exploited on defense. Denver’s lack of depth and bench shows its ugly head.

Denver in six.
 
couple first thoughts of what ive been seeing so far..

lakers can still make it a competitive series

the mavs vs clippers has been a nail bitter

cavs vs magics have been a joke, magics are clearly not playoff ready

knicks really needed those wins over the 76ers

suns have been what i been assuming

celtics are showing that they aren't really a perfect team, but i still think they'll get it done
 
If gafford remains a non factor next to zubac its dicey for mavs. In fact their new role guys have looked pretty bad at taking advantage of traps to the stars. They're all also unproven in the playoffs compared to the clipper role guys.

Sixers have a lot to feel good about. They just need more from role guys. Brunson has struggled against length two games in a row.

Suns assist rate was fine in the regular season and that disappeared. Now the likes of Gobert/KAT is enough to contain a combination of Booker and KD just shooting over the top. Even with KAT foul trouble. No Allen means even less threes and spacing. Suns miss real point guard play.
 
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