Suicune and Milotic both are not hard counters.
Haze, Roar, etc. If it runs all special, Bliss and bulky Water types will stop it every time. If it runs DD LO, Celebi, other bulky Grass types, Skarmory, and Steel-baiting in general keep it from sweeping. Vaporeon is also a pretty good option, since it can Protect, bring in a Steel, or Toxic stall if it deosn't have Lum Berry. Mixed is actually...pretty hard to
completely counter, now that you mention it, but it doesn't have the staying power to set up more than once or amass any kills. Stall teams might try to put up a good fight, but I've seen my opponent go out of my way to try and counter Manaphy. Ttar, Blissey, Hippowdon, Quagsire, Latias (yeah, don't even try to tell me that's a coincidence). Manaphy beats them all.
maybe you were running the calc for Body Slam?
Yeah, I was actually. But we have to remember that Snorlax is the counter, not Manaphy, so he'll just take a good chunk of health and die. For Manaphy, that means absolutely nothing. If you don't kill it, it's still in the game.
Running Ice Beam? Gyara and Kingdra DDs up.
Speaking of which, I just faced a Gyara today (standard Adamant leftovers) and Tail Glowed right in its face for an easy 2HKO while it flailed about with DD and EQ. Kingdra is both less powerful and less bulky, so it's not going to fare any better.
If this is case, let's ban Kabutops and Kingdra first, but we won't, because like I said before, rain is NOT a common battle condition.
I’m calling bullshit on that logic because you’re not telling me that Rain Dance isn’t a viable strategy that’s simple to set up and maintain, you’re telling me that we shouldn’t take it into account for how well a Pokemon performs because not everyone uses it. If everyone confined themselves to such a one-sided train of thought, Wobbuffet would still be OU and the players that were actually smart enough to use it rather than ignore it would have the advantage in every single match, most likely garnering free wins and laughing at how ineffective the system is.
The same thing is going to happen with Manaphy if you guys vote him OU. From there, we’ll either get something stupid like Rain Dance clause (UU is headed that route right about now, actually) or finally ban Manaphy, which should have been done in the first place.
TTar doesn't have to do anything to Gliscor. If you see Gliscor use Rain Dance, TTar can just switch in and out (Provided not on multiple Earthquakes) and get rid of your rain. If anyone sees Gliscor use Rain Dance, they should recognise that Gliscor is not the threat, but whatever is going to come in. I'd be prefectly happy to switch in TTar into Gliscor after a Rain Dance and just switch it straight out after the Sand has rolled in.
Yeah, that's pretty stupid. You're just racking up entry hazard damage risking an Earthquake, which cuts your strategy clean off and even if I bring Manaphy in anyway and just start Tail Glowing, I'm going to kill Ttar, you don't accomplish anything, and I get to Rain Dance without hindrance for the sweep.
Even if Manaphy could sweep better than any other Rain sweeper after Rain is set up, which we have already determined it cannot, it would still not be Uber because of that set. Becoming Uber via the Offensive Characteristic requires that a Pokemon's can not only sweep a large portion of the metagame, but can do so with little support.
Using one move
is little support. Stopping the rain by brainlessly bringing in Ttar or Hippowdon doesn't stop Manaphy, it just gives me free setup time. Manaphy has better stats than every other Rain Dance sweeper, Tail Glow, and full recovery to boot. You're going to have to go through extreme amounts of effort top stop it and by the time you realize you've exhausted an entire team of options and still can't beat it, it's laughing its ass off all the way to Ubers.
I also have to say, though, stuff like Kingdra and Kabutops can handle walls much better than Manaphy can.
Not if they’re Slowbro, Shaymin, Poliwrath, or Quagsire. Thanks to that awful Rock/Water typing of his, getting in safely enough to even SD is extremely difficult. And notice how his counters are all UU/NU because that’s exactly where they belong and the type of metagame Kabutops is relevant to. Once it makes BL and people start noticing how it runs through OU, I’ll let you know and we can have this debate again.