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Official Smogon Fantasy Football PLAYOFF Thread (2014-15 Edition)
- Thread starter WaterBomb
- Start date
(ง ͠° ل͜ °)ง the unseen Marshall is not the deadliest Marshall (ง ͠° ل͜ °)ง
4th highest points scored but most points scored against leaves me a sad 1-2 in League C :(
every year this happens to at least one team in every league. Perhaps this is your year!
only week 3 though, don't panic yet
Yeah I'm taking solace in regression to the mean. Still stings a little
edit: Though having to sit AJ Green, DThomas, and JThomas at the same time stings almost as much ._.
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I been so lucky in this league, no injuries or people putting up shit points...other leagues not so much
Why didn't you play a defense?
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There was nothing on the wire that looked safe. Bucs turned out to be a 5 point play, but i felt pretty smart sitting them through the first half of that game.
If any of you are confident in your fantasy skills and have a small amount of disposable income, I highly recommend joining fanduel's weekly payout leagues.
The main league is a $25 dollar buy in with a guaranteed 1.25 million pay out, and the top ~12000 or so (a little less) get guaranteed payouts (minimum range is $60), with about ~57000 entrants, so you need to be in the top 20%. First prize is $120,000, 2nd $60k, and it goes down till the last range which is around 4900-11490 get $60.
Since it's weekly, they have adjusted values each week and everyone starts off with 60k in salary.
I tried it last week and found it pretty fun (ended up in 3040th place for $75 payout). LonelyNess is doing it with me this week, so if anyone else wants to try you should, as the name of the game is pretty much finding the best value and it's fun to "predict" what values are higher than the state salary due to match up / shootout potential etc.
https://www.fanduel.com/p/Home
if you want to try it; $25 is the main league, but there are also $1 leagues, $2 leagues, $5 leagues etc.
I like it more than a year long paid format because this let's you "draft" (the part I find the most fun anyway) every week and also is much more forgiving to bad luck (technically :P).
The main league is a $25 dollar buy in with a guaranteed 1.25 million pay out, and the top ~12000 or so (a little less) get guaranteed payouts (minimum range is $60), with about ~57000 entrants, so you need to be in the top 20%. First prize is $120,000, 2nd $60k, and it goes down till the last range which is around 4900-11490 get $60.
Since it's weekly, they have adjusted values each week and everyone starts off with 60k in salary.
I tried it last week and found it pretty fun (ended up in 3040th place for $75 payout). LonelyNess is doing it with me this week, so if anyone else wants to try you should, as the name of the game is pretty much finding the best value and it's fun to "predict" what values are higher than the state salary due to match up / shootout potential etc.
https://www.fanduel.com/p/Home
if you want to try it; $25 is the main league, but there are also $1 leagues, $2 leagues, $5 leagues etc.
I like it more than a year long paid format because this let's you "draft" (the part I find the most fun anyway) every week and also is much more forgiving to bad luck (technically :P).
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Surely there had to be some decent options. You should always play a defense.
Also Fanduel is amazing. I played in like 8 different leagues last week. Its probably best to stick with the 1$ or 2$ leagues.
so thats my team. some guy offered me Lacy + Torrey Smith + Jarrett Boykin (obv garbage filler imma drop) for Andre Johnson, Floyd, and Spiller
my bench right now is gerhart / jordan reed / cecil shorts / greg jennings / terrance williams
I'm highly inclined not to take that based on my wide receiver situation...like very inclined...but I'm assuming Lacy will bounce back and I'm kind of losing faith in Andre Johnson so ye, and i have no expectations for torrey smith right now, although mayb I could get him to give me watkins over smith or something...help plz.
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eh, either they were a terrible defense and/or they were playing a high-powered offense.
rolling with e Dolphins D this week, should be decent.
in the past ive had tons of random issues with them. this year everything has been fine though. even their mobile app has been working. the only complaint i have is that it doesnt automatically replace my injured players at the last minute for me.
what browser do you use?
I use chrome. It might be related to my work connection, as I've had issues running PS in my browser at work but at home it's fine. I can't recall if I've had any issues with the yahoo site from my home computer, but I've definitely had issues at work. It usually works after a while, but it is happening frequently so it's a bit annoying.
I do love the mobile app though, they've vastly improved it from last year.
I do love the mobile app though, they've vastly improved it from last year.
you are losing 3 starters and gaining 1
that is almost never a good deal, even if you were getting the best starter in the league.
you would be starting 2/3 of Cecil Shorts, Torrey Smith, and Greg Jennings every week... does that sound like a winning combination to you?
my PPR team always looks amazing before the games start. maybe they'll actually perform this time. i feel like FJax and JBell are always going to alternate who has a good week, and i'm always going to be on the wrong end of it.
and this team always looks shaky, just never know who will show up. obviously i'll be monitoring the JC situation closely.
and this team always looks shaky, just never know who will show up. obviously i'll be monitoring the JC situation closely.
I find myself pretty bad at daily fantasy. Is it better to choose high variance players (say, Vincent Jackson) that give you the best shot of scoring large amounts of points? Or is it usually better to fill the lineup with "value" players and filling it out with 2-3 elite players? Are the odds of making a profit larger with the $25 leagues compared to the $2 or $1 leagues, or vice versa? Do most of the leagues fill up to capacity?
Yea, the $1 and $2 leagues are decent cause they're always full and obviously low risk, but the main $25 league has the same entry fee:total prize pool ratio and is low enough to not be unreasonable (also the "omg what if I get lucky" factor is a lot stronger). I actually played in 2 $2 leagues last week.
If you're going for broke and the top prizes, I'd say it's in your best interest to go with all players that have potential for Boom, regardless of the potential for Bust. However, my strategy last week was to ensure a high floor and take some chances based on match up. This tends to lean more towards finding value picks and then loading up on stars if you can. I ended up 3000th out of 57000th for a $75 dollar pay day, even though the two "luck slots" (K and Def) for me only gave me 2 points each. My guess is so long as I don't make stupid decisions and continue to find those reasonable values (for example, last week I went with Kirk Cousins against Eagles as a value pick at QB, this week going with Donald Brown against Jacksonville as a value pick at RB), I can probably end up in the lower pay out ranges most of the time assuming I don't get incredibly unlucky.
You'd be surprised, but at least a quarter of the entrees seemed to be too influenced by homerism / non objective standards, so it's actually not that hard to place in the top ~20% or so to place in the winning ranges.
I probably shouldn't be sharing this, but there's a guy on Reddit that does a pretty good job of analyzing defenses. It's mostly for streaming defenses in regular leagues, but can be adapted for daily fantasy as well.
Here's his post for this week.
I'm too lazy to screenshot it, but someone I'm playing this week has this bench: Eric Decker (injured), Ryan Mathews (injured), Danny Woodhead (IR), Gio Bernard (Bye), Miles Austin (Bye), Harry Douglas (injured), and Jared Cook (bye). His flex spot is empty, and his current starters include Bishop Sankey, Carlos Hyde, Hakeem Nicks, and Heath Miller.
If I lose this game I'm quitting fantasy 4lyfe. I'm projected to win 152-92, so hopefully nothing bad happens.
Here's his post for this week.
I'm too lazy to screenshot it, but someone I'm playing this week has this bench: Eric Decker (injured), Ryan Mathews (injured), Danny Woodhead (IR), Gio Bernard (Bye), Miles Austin (Bye), Harry Douglas (injured), and Jared Cook (bye). His flex spot is empty, and his current starters include Bishop Sankey, Carlos Hyde, Hakeem Nicks, and Heath Miller.
If I lose this game I'm quitting fantasy 4lyfe. I'm projected to win 152-92, so hopefully nothing bad happens.
This is all well and good until you actually look at his projections vs reality. This guy quite frankly doesn't have a clue.
These are his projections against reality...
and for fun here's a completely randomly generated set of projections with the same average as his, outperforming his:
