OU:
Santu vs BIHI - Santu has been on fire all year. A great SPL, a great WCoP and he's in the Grand Slam final on top of that. Frankly, I can't go against him here. There's just too many wins to put against any counterargument I might even try to conjure up. BIHI has been decent, but keeps having to play the best performing OU player on the opposing team it seems. Tough luck there, unless Finch is throwing him under the bus following their beef that one time during Smogon Tour. How is THAT for a conspiracy theory? I should make a Facebook page so that one guy from your high school could share this and alongside his other wild theories. SURELY you all know such a guy from your high school, right? BIHI better get an easier opponent next week or I'm going to bring this up again. Santu does have the Grand Slam final to worry about this week obviously, so maybe that could lead to a lack of focus towards Snake? Then again, Santu's level of focus is probably waiting for the team to be posted, importing it and then winning the game. Man you've really won a stupid amount of games this year, Santu. You were right I should've drafted you again in SPL. My apologies.
OU: Bloody alfa vs
Raiza - My favorite part about Raiza's game last week was Pietro alerting the lobby whenever Raiza made a spicy play, just in case we might've missed it. Thank you Pietro, we don't deserve you or your presence. Bloody alfa bounced back nicely from a rough start to the tournament by virtue of tossing ramboss towards a loss. These two are actually both very consistent SS OU players this year. Between WCoP and now Snake they've both won a shitload and this one really could go either way, which is why I'm going to need a tie breaker... Raiza is Italian, Italians are good at SS OU, I can't predict against the Italian here, etc. etc. etc... This is probably one of the most closely contested games of the whole week on paper. I rate both very highly and will do my best to catch this one live.
OU: Leo vs
Finchinator - This is a spicy game with lots of backstory. These two users were both on track to be and remain Smogon's posterboy users. Beloved by most, if not all, they were excellent contributors and close friends. Finch would make sure to get Leo onto his team tournament teams, as his OU forums deputy became his team tournaments deputy as well. This seemingly perfect partnership took a turn for the worst, however. Everything changed when the fire nation attacked. Or NG, rather. Both users got caught in the crossfire and were demoted from the positions they held on our forums, going their separate ways since. Leo, to the disliking of many users, standing by his NG comerades following his demotion, while Finch focused on improving for the better, treating others with kindness instead. With all of this behind us, fate arranged this meeting of two former allies as they duke it out on the big stage of the Smogon Snake Draft. As for the actual game, Leo actually impressed me two weeks ago against Sacri'. I mentioned last week that I thought it'd be a matter of time until he got his shot for the Bushmasters, and here we are. Finch, though, is still the definite favorite in my eyes. Fresh off of taking out watashi, Finchinator has a chance to turn his record positive again. Knowing Finch he'll REALLY want to win this game as well, outside of his already incredible motivation normally. Hoping for some BEEF here, but expecting a solid team + win from Finch in an anticlimactic game, which is exactly what Finch will be hoping for.
OU: Lopunny Kicks vs
Tace - I'm not gonna lie, I've gotten a lot of shit for gassing up Tace these last few weeks. I'm gonna need you to bounce back from last week's sizeable Ls, Tace. You're making me look bad here. That's as far as I'll take it for now, though. No flipflopping yet. Meanwhile, Lopunny "Tilt Chamberlain" Kicks has now lost three Snake games in a row after being selected first by the Bushmasters in the draft. He's going to have step up here if the Bushmasters want to climb out of this hole, and he has to do so against one of the best current gen players of 2020. I like Punny and wouldn't mind seeing him take this one at all, especially since he'd be doing it for my former franchise. What it is exactly that's going wrong for the Bushmasters I'm not sure, but I have to believe that Punny is at the heart of it, given that he's their centerpiece player. It's do or die this week for Punny, so we're giving another player a chance to join the elite ranks that currently only Pepeduce is worthy of; if Tace wins this week, the Bushmasters are officially eliminated. One of the biggest games of the week by far.
DOU: qsns vs
Paraplegic - I'm not gonna lie, I have no idea who wins this one. I saved this game for last and I know that watashi and Eeveeto are about to play so I just really want to finish this stupid that I've been working on for what feels like a month. Okay. They've been good, but not great, right? qsns beat Nails last week and I rate Nails very highly, so that's a big plus. Paraplegic's Charizard didn't kill Dragapult with Dragon Pulse, but I'm still not sure whether or not that was a min roll or not. If it's Timid Zard and 0/4 bulk Dragapult, then it would've been an absolute min roll and extremely unfortunate. I'm gonna go with Paraplegic here, mostly because the Bushmasters are all but down for the count while the Astrotias will REALLY want to bounce back after an awful two weeks that both slipped through their fingers as they were about to win it. I trust the environment and overall mentality on the Astrotias on that front more, if that makes sense. I get somewhat deflated vibes from the Bushmasters, but that might also be because I talk to soulgazer a lot, who is always negative and deflated during team tournaments. Even when we were winning every week in SPL 9... Two good players, two super nice users and hopefully a great DOU game. By all accounts a very closely contested game from what I can tell so far. Sorry for the rambling there.
UU:
Ramolost vs Accelgor - I feel bad going with the talking loudmouth over my kind friend Accelgor, but I have to follow my instincts here. Ramolost, bluntly put, is the one good thing about the Bushmasters' season up to this point. Not only is he off to a 3-1 start in his first team tournament, he's achieved that record having already played against all of CBU, Poek and SoulWind. Very impressive. Accelgor ran into his first loss last week, which means he too is 3-1 at this stage of the tournament. Accelgor's strength of schedule, respectfully, hasn't been as strong as Ramolost's, though. Obviously you can only beat who you're given and Accelgor has been up to the task so far, but it is a notable difference when looking at this particular match-up. Other than that, I think we're looking at two players that are both expected to end up with positive records from here, if not just below even in the worst case scenario. I'm excited to see how Accelgor bounces back in the team builder in particular. Maybe a Fire-type move somewhere out of a newfound Escavalier paranoia? Escavalier steal the shell covering from Shelmet when they evolve, btw. Could become personal for Accelgor at this point.
RU: roman vs
Feliburn - Rurk on rurk violence lead to Feliburn permanently retiring his friend and ally, Nat. It had to be done, however, and it's probably for the best anyway. roman scored a crucial crit on odr's Dragalge last week, though roman also missed a crucial Overheat against Pepeduce two weeks before that. So it goes in these tournaments. Feliburn hasn't put a foot wrong yet, though. As evidenced by last week's elaborate rant, I think Feliburn is the most underrated player in the tournament. He continues to prove that week by week and I don't expect him to slow down now. You got the longest paragraph last week, Feliburn, so I'm just gonna go for balance and end it here.
NU:
CyberOdin vs GW - CyberOdin has played better and more secure than GW over these first four games, in my opinion. GW's inexperience is showing and he's clearly not as adept at closing out games as the much more experienced CyberOdin is. Frankly, Odin has impressed me and has been playing great as far as I can tell. 1-3 isn't a good record, but he timed out once and put up competitive fights against both bugzinator and Kushalos; two of the most experienced players in the entire tournament, let alone the NU pool. The NU slot is the least of my concerns if I'm Bushmasters management. To be fair to GW, he has been thrown into the deep end and let's not pretend that playing perfect endgames in big tournament games is easy. The best players mess them up at times as well. GW has shown bright moments, but ultimately comes across as shaky for now. It's worth noting that the Astrotias have Bouff among their substitutes, so should GW remain unable to get going they do have an alternative in the back. As for this week, though, my money is on Odin 100%.
PU:
pokemonisfun vs keppy - Yes. Oh, yes. This might just be the easiest prediction of my life. pif is one of the most legendary players of all time and by FAR the most dominant and consistent ladder player ever. Anyone that claims that fact to be as much as arguably is not only incorrect, but downright disrespectful. Nobody comes close to pif. When I started playing on Pokemon Online in 2011 I wanted to top the ladder in every BW tier, but tragically pif was already 100 points ahead of the competition even then. 100 points were a LOT more on PO's ladder system than PS!'s, mind you. I don't know if you remember this pif, but I laddered a lot on the alt "CharlieSheenWinning" back then.
We had some heated battles back in the day. In any case, I have nothing but respect for one of our most iconic players ever. He isn't an established team tournament player, he isn't known for his PU prowess, but pif is taking the Chinese Premier League by storm and he's a God of our time and has been for a decade. He was at the top then and he's still at the top now. Hell, go ahead and take a look at the UU ladder rankings right now. Also, what happened in keppy's game last week? Did the Drifblim not have Strength Sap, or was keppy not aware that spamming Strength Sap beats Lurantis one on one? Contrary boosts attack instead of dropping it, so you stall out +6 Leaf Storm by healing 100% each time. What am I missing? I'm pretty sure keppy also just won with Silvally if another Swords Dance was clicked against Type: Null. I'm not convinced by keppy's playing ability, which is a shame given the god tier level support the Astrotias bring to the table. In fairness, keppy is new to tournaments and at these early stages each week results in a huge amount of experienced gained. Let's keep an open mind and see how keppy does against pif. Honestly, I'm so excited about pif playing that I almost forgot soulgazer isn't playing this week.
LC: Kingler vs
LilyAC - The hosts saved my favorite player for last... I'm sorry Kingler, but I'm talking about your opponent here. :( Low Timer Lily bounced back from her first loss of the tournament nicely last week by utilizing another cool new tech in Substitute + DD Scraggy. I for one can't wait to see what she comes up with next. Now, it has to be mentioned that Kingler recently beat Lily in a bo3 for the LC Open title. This is, however, Individual Tournament Kingler (ITK). ITK is a LOT better at winning games than TTK. Kingler has actually been really good in individuals throughout his time on Smogon, qualifying for more playoffs than most players. In team tournaments this somehow translates to a 2-7 record every time, with Kingler tragically being on track for another one this Snake. I won't predict against Lily, but I have to admit that this is one of the tougher games remaining for her. Kingler has beaten her in a tournament before and very few LC players can even say that in recent times. I can't and won't predict the upset, for I am loyal towards my favorite player in the tournament, BUT if there's anyone (other than Serene, obviously) that I could see beating her, it's Kingler. For those of you watching at home, keep in mind that Kingler can only win one more game in order to end with a 2-7 record. So if he does win, he'll have to lose every week from here on out.
