Smogon Usage-Based Tier Update: May 2015

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Antar

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Antar what's the cutoff for quickrises in the second month?
This is more information than you asked for, but it comes up a lot, so this way I can just quote this post when it comes up again.

The cutoffs are calculated as the points at which there is less than a 50% chance of encountering the Pokemon once in N battles. The formula is:
Code:
1-0.5^(1/N)
For regular rises/drops, N=20 → 3.406%
For first month, N=10 for rises, 40 for drops → 6.697% / 1.718%
For second month, N=15 for rises, 30 for drops → 4.516% / 2.284%
 
This is more information than you asked for, but it comes up a lot, so this way I can just quote this post when it comes up again.

The cutoffs are calculated as the points at which there is less than a 50% chance of encountering the Pokemon once in N battles. The formula is:
Code:
1-0.5^(1/N)
For regular rises/drops, N=20 → 3.406%
For first month, N=10 for rises, 40 for drops → 6.697% / 1.718%
For second month, N=15 for rises, 30 for drops → 4.516% / 2.284%
I take it this is a recently added system, no? Torn-T didn't rise to OU during the April quick shifts even though it had over 4.516%.

If so, what is the reasoning behind this change?
 

Antar

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SwedishBiscuit, we've had this system in place since the old PS server (and all its logs) were lost at the start of ORAS. I'll have to check into the specifics of Torn-T, but keep in mind second-month quick-rises are based on the two previous months' stats combined (ratio of 5-1).

Edit: You are correct. Torn-T had enough usage in April to rise. Not sure why it didn't. Might have accidentally applied the one-month threshold.
 
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Imanalt

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A large number of Pokemon with usage about 3.41% actually indicates that the tier is incredibly diverse. So some might consider it the best tier ever.*

*Technically if we're going by that metric, UU beats NU...
on the other hand it also likely means you have a high percentage of teams built by people just clicking things that are listed in the tier in teambuilder, since that tends to have a pretty large effect on buffing up the usage of mons that should drop.
 

Antar

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Imanalt, theoretically players at the 1630-level should have some idea of what they're doing.

Legit question: how does the size of the NU viability rankings compare to those of other tiers?
 

Imanalt

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Imanalt, theoretically players at the 1630-level should have some idea of what they're doing.

Legit question: how does the size of the NU viability rankings compare to those of other tiers?
given im fairly sure there's an observable change in usage of mons when they change tiers, even at the 1630 level, they don't seem to have enough of an idea (or at least a couple percent of them don't)
 
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