So, I just got my reqs, though since the fate of Dynamax seems to already be set in stone, I'd like to talk about the second most heated topic at the moment: the removal of the Moody Clause. I can only really talk about only one of the abusers of Moody, that being Glalie, since that's the one I used to ladder. This is the set that I used:
Glalie @ Leftovers
Ability: Moody
EVs: 248 HP / 8 SpD / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
IVs: 0 Atk
- Substitute
- Protect
- Disable
- Freeze-Dry
I've seen Taunt be used over Disable, though I prefer Disable because it's also able to stop attacks that can threaten Glalie. It also notably shuts down any Choice item user, with Galarian Darmanitan being a standout in that group.
As expected, how successful I am with Glalie in games depends on what stat boosts I get the first few turns, though the majority of the time I'm hope for a Speed boost. After all, getting the Speed boost bolsters the stat to 568, which allows it to already outspeed the majority of the metagame once it's on the field. Pivoting really helped with this, since I would technically get two chances to get it, though I typically stay in because I would have rather useful stat boosts after stalling with Substitute + Protect. Surprisingly, however, my first Moody activation was the boost in Speed more times then I thought. It's no surprise that it's a better chance, though, since it's now a 1/5th chance instead of a 1/7th chance. Even if I didn't get a Speed boost, I often stayed in regardless because I felt that the roll I got was useful. What's the exact probabilities of these types of rolls?
Here's a table of every possible roll you can get from Moody:
1. +Atk, -Def | 5. +Def, -Atk | 9. +SpA, -Atk | 13. +SpD, -Atk | 17. +Spe, -Atk |
2. +Atk, -SpA | 6. +Def, -SpA | 10. +SpA, -Def | 14. +SpD, -Def | 18. +Spe, -Def |
3. +Atk, -SpD | 7. +Def, -SpD | 11. +SpA, -SpD | 15. +SpD, -SpA | 19. +Spe, -SpA |
4. +Atk, -Spe | 8. +Def, -Spe | 12. +SpA, -Spe | 16. +SpD, -Spe | 20. +Spe, -SpD |
For the sake of simplicity, here are the rules for a Moody roll that I would deem useful, with the conditions being that I switch Glalie in after one of my Pokemon got KOed and I use Protect the first turn it's out:
- Anything that is -Atk is useful.
- Anything that is +Spe is also useful.
- Anything that is -Spe isn't useful.
- Anything that is +Atk isn't useful.
- Everything else is useful.
With these rules, the probability of Glalie getting a useful Moody roll is 13/20, or 65%. Not too bad, but what if you also care about your Special Attack as well? The probability of that when counting +Spe, -SpA as a useful roll is 11/20, or 55%. In my opinion, these numbers are pretty good, but what about after that first turn? By using a random generator, I simulated 5 turns when Glalie is on the field several times to see what would its stat boosts look after a couple of turns. The rolls are labeled as such from 1-20. Here's the results of the simulations with the final stats boosts listed afterwards (hopefully I didn't make a mistake):
1. (+SpA, -Spe), (+Spe, -SpD), (+Spe, -Atk), (+Atk, -Def), (+Atk, -SpD):
+3 Atk, -1 Def, +2 SpA, -2 SpD, +3 Spe
2. (+Spe, -Atk), (+Atk, -Spe), (+SpD, -Atk), (+SpA, -Spe), (+Atk, -Def):
+2 Atk, -1 Def, +1 SpA, +2 SpD, 0 Spe
3. (+Atk, -Spe), (+Spe, -SpA), (+SpD, -Def), (+Spe, -SpD), (+SpA, -Spe):
+2 Atk, -1 Def, +1 SpA, +1 SpD, +2 Spe
4. (+Def, -Spe), (+Spe, -SpA), (+Atk, -SpD), (+Spe, -Def), (+SpA, -Spe)
+2 Atk, +1 Def, +1 SpA, -1 SpD +2 Spe
5. (+Def, -SpA), (+Spe, -Def), (+SpA, -SpD), (+Def, -Atk), (+SpD, -Atk)
-2 Atk, +3 Def, +1 SpA, +1 SpD, +2 Spe
I know that only five tests is a really, really small sample size for an simulation like this, but I did this just for time. Simply put, almost all of these final stat boosts optimizes Glalie the best, with the exception being test 2 if you're really care about Speed. Like I said, though, this is a really small part of a simulation that should be done many more times; I've can recall times when one of my stats goes down to -3 or even -4 and times where one of my stats hits the max in only five turns. This sample size proves, however, that Moody can easily snowball quickly in a matter of turns, and it's definitely possible for you to safely get to snowballing your stats if you play your moves right.
Probability is obviously not the only factor in a successful Moody Glalie, though. Your opponent influences that a lot, most important how they play and what their team consists of, with of course getting the optimal rolls. Unfortunately, if everything above didn't seem questionable or controversial, Moody really makes that seem clear in battle. Take a look at
this battle, the last battle before I got my reqs, funnily enough.
- At Turn 8, if I was able to get a Speed boost, I would be able to outspeed Dragapult, Disable Fire Blast to force it to switch out since it was most likely had Choice Specs, set up Substitute, and snowball from there. Unfortunately, I didn't get that roll, forcing me to sack one of my Pokemon, Rotom-H.
- At Turn 13, I was able to get a Speed nerf under Trick Room after Glalie was pivoted in, which helped me get my Substitute up. Although I would've been in a tough spot after Trick Room, I luckily get a Speed boost once it's over. Funnily enough, I got another Speed boost afterwards, which didn't really matter unless Dragapult had a Choice Scarf and it went over my head. Unfortunately, though, my Special Attack was dropped quite a bit, but thanks to the rolls I had earlier, I was able to weave around Mandibuzz, Galarian Darmanitan, and Dragapult and get the KO on Seismitoad after nicely timed Special Attack boosts negating its previous depletion.
- By Turn 20, my I got the maximum amount of Speed boosts you can get, which pretty much allows it to never go down low enough for Dragapult to even think about outspeeding Glalie.
- At Turn 29 and the turn after, I get really lucky and get two Special Attack boosts in a row, which was more than enough to take out Mandibuzz and basically sealed the game up at that point.
Although my opponent's team was pretty weak to Freeze-Dry, I have to say that the rolls I got to get Glalie set on the field versus Mandibuzz were really lucky, considering that I needed a Speed drop before Trick Room ended and a Speed boost after it ended, or else I would've been in a position where I would've needed to switch out or risk getting my Leftovers Knocked Off. To put it in perceptive, the probability of me getting those two specific roles in succession are 4/20 multiplied by 4/20, which equals 1/25 when simplified, or
4%. Although me using Disable didn't matter that much versus Mandibuzz because it used U-turn, the fact that I didn't have to do any risks negates really any skill.
Wait a minute, there's more.
My opponent makes a fair play and switches into Galarian Darmanitan, which I assumed would probably either U-turn or Flare Blitz. However, I get ANOTHER Speed boost, allowing me to outspeed it now and pretty much hurting my opponent's plan. The chances of that happening is the original 1/25 multiplied by another 4/20, which equals
.8%. Yes, it technically didn't matter too much because I chose to Protect, but the fact that I was able to get enough Speed by chance to outspeed pretty much the entire metagame is insane, or rather, insanely lucky. Without getting those Speed boosts in a short amount of time, let alone three turns in a row, I probably would've been facing a much challenging battle. Although this was a high risk, high reward situation, it was entirely up to RNG to determine that. The fact that my opponent had to face the same RNG against me rather than brains can be considered unfair and not competitive at all, and the fact that I can easily spam Substitute, Protect, and Disable without much thought rolling for boosts while my opponent had think hard on how to stop me makes it way to hard for my opponent when I have it easy.
Moody is quite literally rolling for good stats, and now that there's more of chance to get a certain stat boost you want this generation, it arguably makes it almost has hard past generations when evasion was a possible stat to get boosted but with a lower chance. Boosts not going your way? Switch out and possibly pay the price or stay safe. Get a Speed boost as soon as you come in? You're already in a good position, a position with a 12.5% chance to happen. After that, it's relying on luck to get boosts, but when you're spamming Substitute, Protect, and Disable waiting for such luck, is there any much thought put into it? Even with possible ways to circumvent this snowball effect, such as hitting through it's Substitute with Dragapult or forcing it out with phazing, there's always the chance that Glalie will get the boosts to stop you from doing that. Are they able to preserve Glalie with their knowledge of the game and risk taking? No, it's because RNG was in their favor. You can argue that RNG can not be in Glalie's favor, but that's still admitting to the fact that Moody is random-based ability that requires not a lot of skill to get the most use out of it.
As if it wasn't obvious already, I believe that Moody is still an unfair ability that requires little to no competitive knowledge to get the most use out of it. When you're using Glalie, you're spamming moves to prevent it from getting touched, allowing it to get a free boost in whatever stat RNG decides, even when balanced with possible stat drops. If luck is on your side, you can easily go from a guaranteed loss to a win, no matter how hard your opponent outplayed you. Thus, due to its nature of being uncompetitive, the Moody Clause should be reinstated to preserve the competitiveness Smogon has to offer, especially after the highly likely Dynamax ban.
Sorry, Glalie.