252+ Atk Supreme Overlord 5 allies fainted Tera Fairy Kingambit Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Iron Hands: 90-107 (20 - 23.8%) -- possible 6HKO
252+ Atk Supreme Overlord 5 allies fainted Tera Fairy Kingambit Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Tera Fire Iron Hands: 181-214 (40.3 - 47.6%) -- guaranteed 3HKO
+2 252+ Atk Supreme Overlord 5 allies fainted Kingambit Sucker Punch vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Tera Fire Iron Hands: 363-427 (80.8 - 95.1%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
252+ Atk Supreme Overlord 5 allies fainted Tera Fairy Kingambit Tera Blast (80 BP) vs. 0 HP / 0 Def Iron Hands: 416-492 (92.6 - 109.5%) -- 56.3% chance to OHKO
252+ Atk Tera Fire Iron Hands Supercell Slam vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Tera Fairy Kingambit: 162-192 (47.5 - 56.3%) -- 25.8% chance to 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
+2 252+ Atk Tera Fire Iron Hands Supercell Slam vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Tera Fairy Kingambit: 322-381 (94.4 - 111.7%) -- 68.8% chance to OHKO
Off-Tera Kingambit is now playing its own 50/50 on Hands Teraing (Drain Punch obviously busts it so King has to use its own if available) to sneak a Tera Blast on base vs a Sucker Punch on Tera. If it Tera Blasts a Tera Hands, the latter can go to +2 off a ~25-50% hit depending on the type chosen; Sucker into Un-Tera'd hands meanwhile plinks off with enough health for Hands to Supercell it again while out of neutral-Sucker range, nevermind fizzling on SD to be in OHKO range or minimal remaining on a Supercell hit.
For simplicity sake, I'm operating with the following parameters
- Iron Hands always goes for SD on Turn 1, since Drain Punch can fizzle into a Kingambit Tera while SD always leaves a winning option for Turn 2.
- Kingambit is Tera Fairy due to turning into a guaranteed OHKO at +0on base Iron Hands. Tera Blast Ghost has a roll to OHKO at +2, but comes with its own caveats like a Dark Weakness for opposing Gambit and redundant coverage if actually running Tera Blast to begin with (given Kowtow has no way to scare base-Typing Hands), so I've elected not to consider Tera Ghost TB due to worsening Gambit's play against the rest of the Meta (whether vs TB Fairy or pure-Defensive Tera Ghost) and that I'm already spending way too much obsession on this one match-up as is.
- For the sake of argument I will consider being within a SR's worth of chip to be a "loss" since even with Leftovers these mons are hard to keep Pristine all game and it favors Gambit if anything since Hands jumps from ~50% to ~100% Damage ranges and thus lands almost precisely on OHKO/2HKO rolls even without hazards.
| Iron Hands Teras | Iron Hands doesn't Tera |
Kingambit Tera Blasts | Iron Hands survives to +2 and any follow-up Hands wins on a SCS hit | Kingambit KOs Gambit Wins |
Kingambit does not Tera Blast | Hands takes 40-45% and +2 boosts Hands wins on hit | Gambit STABS cap at 27% while Hands boosts Hands Wins on hit |
Kingambit Swords Dances | Both are +2, Sucker Punch does 80-95% as the best hit while Supercell has a 68% OHKO chance. 12.5% chance to KO Hands after SR, 95% chance to land SCS which will OHKO after SR =83% chance Hands wins.
(For the curious no chip is a 65% chance surviving SP for sure but then having to roll on a SCS hit). | Both are +2, back to guessing for the big Sucker Punch vs all-or-nothing Tera Blast into Base hands. Neutral 50/50 again between Kingambit's move and Hands Tera or not |
So that whole mess of a Table/Matrix (which is still a bit simplified admittedly) is to say if Hands has Tera available, even something Scary like a 5-KO's-Tera-Ready Gambit is a pretty safe match-up for it, requiring guessing games for Gambit to keep up assuming it has the right Tera type (Tera Dark power can't really flip this, and most other Tera types/Blasts are either worse against the Meta overall or leave even less fighting chance against Hands in the case of Fire or Flying).
Given Gambit is so controversial, balanced enough to keep or a suspect in a few months and surveys' time, being able to challenge it in what is its most optimal circumstance, given the choice matrix its moves and power lead to, feels like it's a noteworthy aspect to me.