Metagame SV OU Metagame Discussion

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Sneasler is going to break the game when it gets released, it will see OU for a week before a quick ban.
Nah, Sneasler has consistently not been tearing up any of the Post-HOME OU roomtours I've participated in and/or watched (all of them have been in Tours Plaza for me; I've only heard of but never seen a single OU room one), even though we let it play with Dire Claw. In fact, teams with zero HOME-only mons have won more than half of these post-HOME roomtours. At the very least, Skeledirge burns it up, Gholdengo forces out Night Slash and lives one and smacks back hard, Dondozo Rest-Talks past nonsense, and Dire Claw doesn't proc often enough. (50% odds generally trigger less than half the time for me - Wonder Skin never seemed to trigger for me at all on Sigilyph in Gen 8 The Loser's Game despite targeted status moves being absolutely everywhere in that OM, to the point that Gholdengo has been miles better as a Trick/Taunt/etc. hoser in that OM simply because Good as Gold triggers 100% of the time.)

On two other post-HOME notes:

Enamorus somehow hasn't been broken, either. While maybe part of it is my Mixed Contrary Lure set investing too much in Earth Power and not enough in physical attack, another part of it is that even my arguably smarter opponents running Choice Specs or Boots Special Attacker Enamorus haven't been able to circumvent Enamorus's only decent 106 base Speed and mediocre bulk. Scarf Enamorus players might actually be playing with the best set, but taking 25% from Stealth Rock hurts and you lose out on calcs like these:

252 SpA Enamorus Earth Power vs. 248 HP / 252+ SpD Skeledirge: 176-208 (42.8 - 50.6%) -- 1.2% chance to 2HKO
252 SpA Enamorus Earth Power vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Gholdengo: 218-258 (69.2 - 81.9%) -- guaranteed 2HKO
(Gholdengo OHKOs back with no-SpA-investment Make It Rain, Specs Earth Power is a guaranteed OHKO against offensive Gholdengo)
252 SpA Enamorus Earth Power vs. 252 HP / 232+ SpD Heatran: 288-340 (74.6 - 88%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Leftovers recovery
(Heatran guaranteed OHKOs Enamorus back with no-SpA-investment Flash Cannon after Stealth Rock, Specs Earth Power is a guaranteed OHKO against Specially Defensive Heatran)
252 SpA Enamorus Moonblast vs. 0 HP / 0 SpD Hoopa-Unbound: 254-302 (84.3 - 100.3%) -- 6.3% chance to OHKO
(Hoopa-U guaranteed OHKOs back with no-Atk-investment Gunk Shot or 252 SpA EVs Speed-boosting nature Thunderbolt; now Scarf Enamorus wants Play Rough instead, but that performs so much worse against Great Tusk)

Heatran has been pretty unpopular in these post-HOME roomtours in my experience: not a single one of my opponents used Heatran, a ton of the winners haven't used it either (again, I emphasize that teams with zero post-HOME mons have won more such roomtours I've seen than teams with at least one), and Heatran matches up shockingly poorly into the premier Fairy-types this gen (Iron Valiant and Enamorus; contrast Heatran eating up Clefable and not doing too badly against Tapu Koko and Tapu Lele in Gen 8). Compound that with people still liking Rain and wanting to experiment with offensive Water-types (including Samurott-H), and Heatran may actually be justifiably taking a hit this gen.
 
Gen 7: Is unbalanced in every single way possible, the offensive mons are far too many and plenty. And the defensive options are way way waaaayy too unbreakable to make any sort of progress, but unironically, they balanced out in being broken, everything is broken, so nothing is kinda deal. But on both sides you have a ton of options

huh what defensive options in gen7 ou are " way waaaayy too unbreakable to make any sort of progress"?
it's more like the threats in the tier are just handled by very few mons but I don't see how progress is IMPOSSIBLE against your so called "unbreakable" mons. Can you tell me which?

Pex: common offensive teams usually just try to overload it (zard screens, rain, etc), the reason gren is so great is that it can get progress every time with spikes
Gliscor: only tran has a hard time getting progress on it but even that is possible with z-moves, grassy or sun. You have a harder time checking Gliscor defensively than breaking it lol
Steels: Magearna, Heatran, Ferro, etc. Lele gets progress on those almost every time.
Lando-T: does this even count? There are literally 0 mons in the tier that don't get progress on it
M-Lati: is good but also very breakable, can be trapped etc.
Ofc those are all great defensive options but mostly because they are not passive or abusable and can all make progress on their own and not because they are "unbreakable"

sry for posting this in an sv thread but i rly had to clarify this
 
I really didn’t wanna go down this rabbit hole as this is an SV OU thread, but since not much else is going on right now and misinformation is being spread, I shall.
Gen 7: Is unbalanced in every single way possible, the offensive mons are far too many and plenty. And the defensive options are way way waaaayy too unbreakable to make any sort of progress, but unironically, they balanced out in being broken, everything is broken, so nothing is kinda deal. But on both sides you have a ton of options
I vehemently disagree with this assessment of the metagame. I mean besides the fact that how you outline the metagame contradicts itself directly, SM is one of the more balanced generations without having a ton of things people want to ban in hindsight. At most, it’s a small handful with things like Kartana and Magearna. Nobody realistically wants to act on much else and fat is absolutely not seen as overbearing.
Gen 8: Is "balanced" in theory, yes, you could break the stall or """"""""""""""""""""""""""fat balance (that is basically the same but with a CM clef instead)"""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" But the fact that you always gonna be on at least +100 to get something done EVERY match drains your soul. And offense is not rewarding, why would you wanna try something different when nothing really feels exiting, and can just be easily done by trapper heatran + scarf Kartana. Speaking of offense in SS, honestly, most of the time your counter is knock off and scald spam, which works 30% of the time (in reality is a 90%)
The difference between stall and balance is very large, and if you think it’s just throwing on a CM Clef, then you haven’t actually played the format. There are few (and far between) dedicated stall structures, and they look vastly different and less varied than balance. Balance also has a ton of progress focused options that it can multipurpose and fit.

But let’s take conjuncture out of this and look at the actual facts of the metagame: Out of 45 regular season SS OU games in the most recent SPL, only 6 went over 100 turns and only 13 went over 60 turns. The clear majority of games were under 50 turns. The average length of game is barely different than SM OU and it’s less than multiple other generations.

You can classify over half of the teams used as bulky-offense, offense, or hyper offense as well. In particular, multiple archetypes of hyper offense are still popular and a lot of recent trends favor offensive Pokemon.

Yes, some SS balance games drag out and the community has their right to view that negatively as it’s very realistic — everyone is entitled to their opinions on a format, but your claims and sweeping generalizations are factually incorrect.
 
sry for posting this in an sv thread but i rly had to clarify this
Okay, I may have overexaggerated just a tiny ton, but I'm going to explain this in detail since I didn't on the OP
(and, just like you, I'm sorry for talking about gen7 in gen 9, If more debate arises, or there's something I haven't explained properly, we can go to the gen 7 forums and discuss it there)

Imagine that in gen 9, to break stall your standard architect tools are most of the time, more than enough
In gen 8, you need a fucking world-class industrial equipment, and that takes a lot to maintain, the work is long, is hard, and even that can fail
In gen 7, you need specific tools that, while great, might leave you going back to the store to buy other tools, because your tools don't work on the other problems

this is, of course, a gen 7 problems and not a gen 7 stall thing per se, where you need to prepare for too much and that is eventually gonna cost you a win when there's something that your team hasn't accounted for

Now, from what I have seen, and investigated in the resources, most stall/fat balance teams have some of the following on their repertoire
Mega Sableye/Mega Latias
Clefable
Quagsire/Gastrodon
Toxapex
Tapu Fini
Heatran
Gliscor/Tornadus Therian/Zapdos
Blissey/Chansey
Skarmory
Magearna
Ditto

There's also viable but out of the ordinary mons
Mega Aggron/Mega Scizor
Shedinja
Moltres
Pyukumuku
Chesnaught

The list is WAY shorter than the options in offense, no doubt about it, but you have a decent amount of variety here to choose from. Of course, stall can be easily torn apart in any day of the week if I go with Hoopa-Unbound for example (god I love this mon). But then my matchup against offense becomes worse, and gen 7 is so big that proper team building is downright impossible. I have been stalled out, I have broke stall by either sheer force (Volcarona + Z-Moves and Hoopa-Unbound) or proper play (Serperior, Gliscor, etc)

Of course, I'm not a gen 7 guru in the slightest, and I'll be the first to admit that I still have a long way to go as a trainer
But I have been experiencing the gen since January, and I do play, investigate, team build, etc. and this is what my experience with the gen has been, its been a ton of fun, all things considered

On the TLDR: Yes, you can break stall in gen 7, but due to the nature of the gen, preparing for stall can potentially leave you more open for offense and vice versa, leading you to compromise more than any other gen

Yes, some SS balance games drag out and the community has their right to view that negatively as it’s very realistic — everyone is entitled to their opinions on a format, but your claims and sweeping generalizations are factually incorrect.
I guess this is because I have played on ladder more than tournament, since I currently don't have access to the highest level of anything
But these are just my experiences as a player, I'm probably unlucky lmao
from the amount of likes you're getting, it seems like I'm the wrong, like I said, I still suck at everything, but it is what it is
I'm gonna take it in the chin, and I'm gonna keep playing, in an attempt to become a better overall player
 
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Imagine that in gen 9, to break stall your standard architect tools are most of the time, more than enough
In gen 8, you need a fucking world-class industrial equipment, and that takes a lot to maintain, the work is long, is hard, and even that can fail
In gen 7, you need specific tools that, while great, might leave you going back to the store to buy other tools, because your tools don't work on the other problems
I think with enough durability and patience, you can break stall in any of these generations with generic balance or bulky-O without dedicating a slot or core to “stall breaking”. Stall isn’t and has never really been prevalent in gen8 (and it hasn’t been in gen7 since it was a modern generation and trapping was allowed). A lot of the issue when people complain about stall is not accepting that being patient and methodical is part of the game as they’re more in favor of instant gratification grabbing.

I think the concept of stallbreaking is overplayed by a longshot in general. It gets dicey if your team has no longevity to it, but with the right pivoting and sequencing, the vast majority of teams can give themselves a fighting chance. Stall isn’t some massive outlier that requires insane planning or circumstance to beat — it’s just like other archetypes at the end of the day.
 
Sneasler will bring the number of Mons you run Covert Cloak to deal with up to 2!

Real talk though I don't think Dire Claw is going to be too common a move on Sneasler. The Status Effects being a 1/3 shot for the Sneasler user makes it sub-optimal for their side in case you slap Poison onto something you might have wanted to Paralyze compared to the immediate Power of Gunk Shot that it'll appreciate more on Choiced or Set-up/Unburden builds. The big thing it'll be watching is ideal Tera, because its STAB combination has problems with the Meta's litany of Ghost and Poison Type Pokemon to try sweeping, and will thus need to pick its Coverage options carefully.
 
Sneasler will bring the number of Mons you run Covert Cloak to deal with up to 2!

Real talk though I don't think Dire Claw is going to be too common a move on Sneasler. The Status Effects being a 1/3 shot for the Sneasler user makes it sub-optimal for their side in case you slap Poison onto something you might have wanted to Paralyze compared to the immediate Power of Gunk Shot that it'll appreciate more on Choiced or Set-up/Unburden builds. The big thing it'll be watching is ideal Tera, because its STAB combination has problems with the Meta's litany of Ghost and Poison Type Pokemon to try sweeping, and will thus need to pick its Coverage options carefully.

After seeing usage of it in a draft event, Dire Claw is the least of the worries. U-turn+Poison Touch exists, and it can wreck, especially if you have a fast and powerful hex user (Oh hey :dragapult:): It's HexPex 2.0! The gradual chip of poison against teams can really wear some threats down. HDB pivot is defo one of its more premier threats. The Unburden sets are quite worrysome too: You trade STAB acrobatics for a higher attack stat (By 32 points) and a nastier pool of moves. You can even give it Tera flying and then you have a better Hawlucha.
 
Real talk though I don't think Dire Claw is going to be too common a move on Sneasler. The Status Effects being a 1/3 shot for the Sneasler user makes it sub-optimal for their side in case you slap Poison onto something you might have wanted to Paralyze compared to the immediate Power of Gunk Shot that it'll appreciate more on Choiced or Set-up/Unburden builds. The big thing it'll be watching is ideal Tera, because its STAB combination has problems with the Meta's litany of Ghost and Poison Type Pokemon to try sweeping, and will thus need to pick its Coverage options carefully.
The thing about Sneasler is that I feel it's role and moveset will be super heavily reliant on what it's ability it's running. With Unburden you would obviously want the immediate benefit Power with Gunk Shot 90% of the time.

But I think it may be the best Poison Touch User to exist and can benefit defensively heavy teams and stall. At 130 attack and 120 Speed, it has access to U Turn and Fake Out, which both have chances to proc poison. Close Combat is pretty much a must have move on all variants, but a set that want's to make use of Poison Touch has to Choose Between Dire Claw and Poison Jab. Gunk Shot has more Power behind it but lacks interaction with Touch, so that should be considered. Now while it's true that Dire Claw has a 50% chance to inflict something, only 1/3rd of the time it's poison. But Poison Touch raises that chance considerably. So on average, Dire Claw is doing more than Poison Jab and if you proc Sleep Instead, you basically just get another free attack.
Sneasler is going to break the game when it gets released, it will see OU for a week before a quick ban.
As long as Gholdengo exists in the tier, I doubt this will happen. With both it's STABs being blocked, it absolutely is reliant on something that can hit this. And it's best options are... Fire Punch, Shadow Claw, and Dig. I think it can be a solid OU mon, but def not Ubers.
 
The thing about Sneasler is that I feel it's role and moveset will be super heavily reliant on what it's ability it's running. With Unburden you would obviously want the immediate benefit Power with Gunk Shot 90% of the time.

But I think it may be the best Poison Touch User to exist and can benefit defensively heavy teams and stall. At 130 attack and 120 Speed, it has access to U Turn and Fake Out, which both have chances to proc poison. Close Combat is pretty much a must have move on all variants, but a set that want's to make use of Poison Touch has to Choose Between Dire Claw and Poison Jab. Gunk Shot has more Power behind it but lacks interaction with Touch, so that should be considered. Now while it's true that Dire Claw has a 50% chance to inflict something, only 1/3rd of the time it's poison. But Poison Touch raises that chance considerably. So on average, Dire Claw is doing more than Poison Jab and if you proc Sleep Instead, you basically just get another free attack.

As long as Gholdengo exists in the tier, I doubt this will happen. With both it's STABs being blocked, it absolutely is reliant on something that can hit this. And it's best options are... Fire Punch, Shadow Claw, and Dig. I think it can be a solid OU mon, but def not Ubers.
ursaluna has a similar matchup against corviknight, and yet people think it will be broken. one bad matchup isnt stopping sneasler from destroying the whole tier. and you wanna know the worst part? i found out from hackmons that dire claw bypasses the sleep clause. this might be patched out, but if not, its just a cherry on a sundae coated with cyanide.
also, yall sleeping on normal gem fake-out sneasler.
 
ursaluna has a similar matchup against corviknight, and yet people think it will be broken. one bad matchup isnt stopping sneasler from destroying the whole tier. and you wanna know the worst part? i found out from hackmons that dire claw bypasses the sleep clause. this might be patched out, but if not, its just a cherry on a sundae coated with cyanide.
The difference is that Ursaluna has a god tier movepool with multiple set up opportunities, laughs at most status conditions, and can be defensive or offensive given it's abilities. If Corv isn't running Body Press against the offensive set then it isn't really walling it. And if it's the slow offensive set, Corviknight doesn't dare Roost on it without getting slammed by EQ, CC, or Headlong Rush. The bear may not be broken but it's variable movepool makes it a major threat with multiple win conditions and potential sets.

Sneasler does not have that. It's an amazing mon, but it's coverage moves are lackluster. Furthermore, it will probably also be fending for a team slot with similar fast physical U Turn pivot mons like Meow. And as someone stated before, in a meta where Ghost and Poison are common types, its primary STABS are getting hard walled. Again, it's still an amazing mon, but the bear has more going for it (even though they fill different roles). I personally don't think either are broken enough for Ubers at this time, but if I had to pick I would put money on the bear.
 
i found out from hackmons that dire claw bypasses the sleep clause.
I never post in this thread because reading it as a spectator is 100x more entertaining, but just wanted to point out that (assuming you're referring to Balanced Hackmons) they use Sleep MOVES Clause, not Sleep Clause MOD (this is what OU uses). The difference is that Sleep MOVES Clause bans all the sleep moves (yawn, spore, sleep powder, hypnosis, etc.), and Sleep Clause MOD changes game mechanics so only one foe can be asleep at a time.

So, Dire Claw putting things to sleep in Balanced Hackmons isn't "bypassing" the clause; Dire Claw's way of putting things to sleep isn't 100% guaranteed (even with some kind of Serene Grace garbage, but I digress) so it isn't included in Sleep MOVES Clause. On the other hand, since Sleep Clause MOD comes with modifying game mechanics, it's possible that things might get changed so Dire Claw can't put multiple foes to sleep at a time (just speculating though, we'll see what actually happens later on).

tl;dr OU is using a different Sleep Clause than Balanced Hackmons, so it's not worth comparing how the two tiers address Dire Claw.
 
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To add on to the above - Dire Claw is just a better version of Effect Spore which already doesn't bypass Sleep Clause - if you happen to get an Effect Spore Sleep proc while you've already got a mon sleeping, it'll just say "Sleep Clause Mod activated" and nothing will happen. Dire Claw will almost certainly work the same way.
 
Sorry to interrupt the Home theory-moning, past gens debates, and re-litigating of Tera, but I wanted to share some ground-breaking news:
I finally found a SD Iron Hands set that I like!

Iron Hands @ Shuca Berry
Ability: Quark Drive
Tera Type: Steel / Electric / ???
EVs: 160 HP/ 200 Atk / 148 Spe
Adamant Nature
- Swords Dance
- Low Kick
- Thunder Punch
- Heavy Slam / EQ / Ice Punch

Remember resist berries? You know, the way we lured in and deleted counters before Tera was a thing? They still exist! And they make it possible for SD Hands to tackle a Tusk switch-in without requiring Tera:

+2 200+ Atk Iron Hands Low Kick (120 BP) vs. 0 HP / 4 Def Great Tusk: 348-409 (93.8 - 110.2%) -- 62.5% chance to OHKO
252 Atk Great Tusk Headlong Rush vs. 160 HP / 0 Def Shuca Berry Iron Hands: 186-219 (38 - 44.7%) -- guaranteed 3HKO

That 93.8% min roll is a OHKO after spikes plus leftovers recovery on the switch.

I usually avoid putting EVs into HP with Iron Hands, but in this case, the added general purpose bulk puts you over the edge vs Defensive Tusk, who has an outside shot at the 2HKO through Shuca if you run zero physical bulk investment (though obviously, there's no reason to go YOLO and reveal your set until you've got a high level of certainty that you can nab the KO). Bulk Up Tusk still steals your lunch money, though.

Shuca has two big advantages over just running Tera Flying if you need Iron Hands to be able to make progress through Great Tusk:
First, you don't need to waste your Tera to not get obliterated, meaning you can keep the Fighting/Electric typing to manage Kingambit
Second, you can freely run a different Tera Type

In particular, I'm gonna die on the Tera Steel Heavy Slam hill with Iron Hands, but you can also run Tera Electric to make Thunder Punch more potent and lose all of your other weaknesses. There may also be value to be found in Tera Fire to dodge Wisps from Volc/Dirge or Poison for...some reason I can't comprehend. EQ is probably the best general-purpose option if you're running a non-Steel Tera Type.

In any case, this is the most consistent set I've personally found for SD Iron Hands. Unfortunately, I'm now in the mental space where I'm *trying* to get replays which means I keep making boneheaded mistakes in an effort to flex the set, but here are a couple low-mid ladder matches to start:

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-1858431451 (Iron Hands holds on by a thread against DefensiveTusk early; healing wish shenanigans let me bring Hands back to handle Valiant and put me in position to win in the end)
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen9ou-1858437772 (Low Kick nabs solid early chip against Tusk; Shuca +Tera Steel let me protect against every single thing Bax can throw at me, preventing the sweep)

Two other fun techs I've been running:
Iron Valiant @ Choice Scarf
Ability: Quark Drive
Tera Type: Fairy/Fighting
EVs: 192 Atk / 108 SpA / 208 Spe
Naive Nature
- Close Combat
- Moonblast
- Destiny Bond
- Trick

Mixed Scarf Valiant with Trick + Destiny Bond. Valiant's coverage always feels lackluster to me without Specs/CM Boosts, so why bother? Enough SpA EVs to OHKO Max HP Tusk, enough Spe EVs to outpace Moth, the rest in Atk to boost CC. Trick to cripple defensive `mons. DBond to selectively off something from the opposing team you have no other answer for. Sometimes you can even use them together!

Iron Moth @ Heavy-Duty Boots
Ability: Quark Drive
Tera Type: Fire
EVs: 96 Def / 160 SpA / 252 Spe
Timid Nature
- U-turn
- Overheat
- Sludge Wave
- Toxic Spikes

Set T-Spikes, pivot, and nuke things with Overheat. 96 Def EVs means you always survive Kingambit Sucker Punch from full even with five fainted allies.
 
Why Sneasler is overrated by most:

- Dire claw is good on paper, but most of its best use will be when you’re using it to force out a Pokémon, as that’s when the 50% status is great at hitting the switch in. Thanks to poison typing you’re only forcing out some fairies and grass types. This means less opportunities to spam dire claw.

- poison types resist both STAB, and poison is more viable in OU than ever before. Toxapex, amoonguss, iron moth and Clodsire are common. The former 2 have regenerator and make great status absorbers

- Gholdengo and great tusk exist.

- poison touch is great, but you’re not really an alolan Muk, it’s hard to come in on moves, hit the threat or the switch in, and then go back out. It’s stay line leans towards an HDB pivot that needs support or a choice/setup type that comes in less times over a matchup

I don’t think sneasle is getting banned unless its setup sets become too good. +2 Tera flying acrobatics will be good, we have precedent from Roaring moon. Fighting + flying also means you cover more resists and can afford only 2 attacking moves, with moves and items like taunt + herb or a resto chesto, terrain seed for a def boost to insure against dragonite, or whatever.
 
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- poison types resist both STAB, and poison is more viable in OU than ever before. Toxapex, amoonguss, iron moth and Clodsire are common. The former 2 have regenerator and make great status absorbers
Don't quote me on this, but doesn't a poison immunity increase the chances of getting paralyzed or slept from dire claw? Like, they're good switchins generally, but I don't know how I feel about using them when Dire Claw now effectively has a 25% chance to paralyze that mon.

Of course, I could be totally wrong, but still. Sneasler has counterplay, I agree there, but the last thing I want is an increased chance of Dire Claw parahax. (or sleep)
 
Why Sneasler is overrated by most:

- Dire claw is good on paper, but most of its best use will be when you’re using it to force out a Pokémon, as that’s when the 50% status is great at hitting the switch in. Thanks to poison typing you’re only forcing out some fairies and grass types. This means less opportunities to spam dire claw.

- poison types resist both STAB, and poison is more viable in OU than ever before. Toxapex, amoonguss, iron moth and Clodsire are common. The former 2 have regenerator and make great status absorbers

- Gholdengo and great tusk exist.

- poison touch is great, but you’re not really an alolan Muk, it’s hard to come in on moves, hit the threat or the switch in, and then go back out. It’s stay line leans towards an HDB pivot that needs support or a choice/setup type that comes in less times over a matchup

I don’t think sneasle is getting banned unless its setup sets become too good. +2 Tera flying acrobatics will be good, we have precedent from Roaring moon. Fighting + flying also means you cover more resists and can afford only 2 attacking moves, with moves and items like taunt + herb or a resto chesto, terrain seed for a def boost to insure against dragonite, or whatever.

I agree with some points. Particularly that stuff like Gholdengo, Amoonguss and Toxapex existing do hold it back. Though I'd disagree about Great Tusk being good into it because close combat actually hits it really hard, and banded close combats actually 2HKO. Plus the threat of poison stab leaving it statused is a think (and hey U-turn can poison it through poison point, and a poisoned Tusk is really easy to beat).

Regarding poisons, again Amoonguss and Toxapex are good into it but stuff like Moth and Clod actually can't switch directly into banded close combats, as they take too much (moth taking over 50 from either stab actually). I also think because tera fairy is such a common defensive tera, this inadvertantly gives Sneasler more chances to threaten.

I do agree that if Sneasler ends up banned it will be due to set up sets. But of course that's all theirymon and we'll have to wait til it gets released to find out.
 
Don't quote me on this, but doesn't a poison immunity increase the chances of getting paralyzed or slept from dire claw? Like, they're good switchins generally, but I don't know how I feel about using them when Dire Claw now effectively has a 25% chance to paralyze that mon.

Of course, I could be totally wrong, but still. Sneasler has counterplay, I agree there, but the last thing I want is an increased chance of Dire Claw parahax. (or sleep)
It’s the same chance, but nothing will happen if Poison is rolled. On the other hand, that does mean you can’t get Poisoned with them earlier on to be able to switch in without fear of sleep later, so over the course of multiple switch-ins to Dire Claw, yes the chance that they get put to sleep increases.
 
Sneasler will bring the number of Mons you run Covert Cloak to deal with up to 2!

Real talk though I don't think Dire Claw is going to be too common a move on Sneasler. The Status Effects being a 1/3 shot for the Sneasler user makes it sub-optimal for their side in case you slap Poison onto something you might have wanted to Paralyze compared to the immediate Power of Gunk Shot that it'll appreciate more on Choiced or Set-up/Unburden builds. The big thing it'll be watching is ideal Tera, because its STAB combination has problems with the Meta's litany of Ghost and Poison Type Pokemon to try sweeping, and will thus need to pick its Coverage options carefully.
You are definitely having the wrong outlook on Dire Claw and Sneasler. "Wanting to paralyze" something with Dire Claw is not the game plan you are supposed to adopt. Regular poison is not a fancy status but it can be very impactful; it's basically a Salt Cure that can't be removed by switching out (or at all if you don't have Rest, Natural Cure or Healing Wish), and it can be applied not just with Dire Claw but also with Close Combat and especially U-Turn. Sneasler is essentially a poison dispensing machine that has a small (relatively speaking) chance to roll yellow or grey magic, but this should be treated as merely a powerful bonus if you get lucky, not the main aim.
 
I agree with some points. Particularly that stuff like Gholdengo, Amoonguss and Toxapex existing do hold it back. Though I'd disagree about Great Tusk being good into it because close combat actually hits it really hard, and banded close combats actually 2HKO. Plus the threat of poison stab leaving it statused is a think (and hey U-turn can poison it through poison point, and a poisoned Tusk is really easy to beat).

Regarding poisons, again Amoonguss and Toxapex are good into it but stuff like Moth and Clod actually can't switch directly into banded close combats, as they take too much (moth taking over 50 from either stab actually). I also think because tera fairy is such a common defensive tera, this inadvertantly gives Sneasler more chances to threaten.

I do agree that if Sneasler ends up banned it will be due to set up sets. But of course that's all theirymon and we'll have to wait til it gets released to find out.
I should add that Amoongus is only a safe switch-in to Fighting STAB or Dire Claw on the hypothetical Pivot sets. Any Sneasler running Gunk Shot can chunk it with either SD on the Switch or 2 CB hits on Switch + Outspeed.

+2 252 Atk Sneasler Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 172+ Def Amoonguss: 385-454 (89.1 - 105%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Choice Band Sneasler Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 172+ Def Amoonguss: 288-340 (66.6 - 78.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

Sneasler's STABs admittedly aren't hard to resist, but you DO have to resist the hit to take it comfortably, especially if Poisoned by Poison Touch chips or an earlier Dire Claw.

252 Atk Choice Band Sneasler Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Great Tusk: 175-207 (40.3 - 47.6%) -- 19.9% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock, Leftovers recovery, and poison damage
252 Atk Choice Band Sneasler Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 156+ Def Tera Water Garganacl: 189-223 (46.7 - 55.1%) -- 99.6% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery (picked Water since base and Fairy are weak to a STAB despite resisting the other, OHKO'd after SR)
 
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To add on to the above - Dire Claw is just a better version of Effect Spore which already doesn't bypass Sleep Clause - if you happen to get an Effect Spore Sleep proc while you've already got a mon sleeping, it'll just say "Sleep Clause Mod activated" and nothing will happen. Dire Claw will almost certainly work the same way.
Which is why I think sleep clause is definitely breaking the “adhere to cartridge mechanics as much as possible” policy. It has only gotten more egregious, especially considering the last game to have any form of non modded sleep clause was Pokémon battle revolution, a game released in 2006. The sim just deleting the effect of a move is not how that interaction would ever work on cartridge, and it hasn’t been that way for 13 years
 
I should add that Amoongus is only a safe switch-in to Fighting STAB or Dire Claw on the hypothetical Pivot sets. Any Sneasler running Gunk Shot can chunk it with either SD on the Switch or 2 CB hits.

+2 252 Atk Sneasler Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 172+ Def Amoonguss: 385-454 (89.1 - 105%) -- guaranteed OHKO after Stealth Rock
252 Atk Choice Band Sneasler Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 172+ Def Amoonguss: 288-340 (66.6 - 78.7%) -- guaranteed 2HKO after Stealth Rock

Sneasler's STABs admittedly aren't hard to resist, but you DO have to resist the hit to take it comfortably, especially if Poisoned by Poison Touch chips or an earlier Dire Claw.

252 Atk Choice Band Sneasler Close Combat vs. 252 HP / 252+ Def Great Tusk: 175-207 (40.3 - 47.6%) -- 19.9% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock, Leftovers recovery, and poison damage
252 Atk Choice Band Sneasler Gunk Shot vs. 252 HP / 156+ Def Tera Water Garganacl: 189-223 (46.7 - 55.1%) -- 99.6% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock and Leftovers recovery (picked Water since base and Fairy are weak to a STAB despite resisting the other, OHKO'd after SR)

all of this is still theoretical.

reality is amongus switches in on the SD or banded gunk shot, then switches back out.

If sneasler makes any waves in OU, then dragapult, gholdengo, amoonguss and toxapex stocks are gonna be on the rise. Tera poison great tusk also gets some added viability outside of checking the grasses.
 
all of this is still theoretical.

reality is amongus switches in on the SD or banded gunk shot, then switches back out.

If sneasler makes any waves in OU, then dragapult, gholdengo and toxapex stocks are gonna be on the rise.
The point of the Amoongus calcs was that it can't take the hits described, so if it is in front of Sneasler the Amoongus player is still on the backfoot compared to the other checks mentioned who work significantly better. Amoongus switching in with no Hazard damage still leaves with 67% health on a minimum roll (66% damage -> 34% + 33% restored), so it needs to Regenerate/Heal again before taking another CB hit on anything but the lowest roll.

Sneasler will be interesting because it has the choice of instant power with CB and Poison Touch to get its own Chip on U-Turn pivoting, or Unburden allowing it to outspeed basically the entire unboosted Meta if it procs, which would make the SD sets very hard to revenge kill if you get both active at once. Acrobatics is the most common Coverage option I see discussed for the latter.
 
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