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The Everything NFL Thread - 2013-2014 Edition

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It'd be (chance of conversion)*(chance of subsequent field goal or TD) vs (chance of field goal [basically 100%])*(chance of subsequent touchdown).

The chance of scoring a field goal is really never more than double the chance of scoring a TD, regardless of field position (I finally found what I was looking for, go down to figure 7). For example, based on the field position of the last drive (NE 35), they had around an 18% chance for a touchdown and a 30% chance for a field goal. If the chance of conversion on 4th and short is around 50% (4th and 2 is around 55%), then the second option is better if you're playing for the tie. In this situation:

(~55%)*(~30%) = 16.5%
(~100%)*(~18%) = 18%

Figure 6 on the same paper shows a chart of optimal decisions on 4th down anyway. 4th and 2 from the +98 is literally a borderline between kicking and going for it, based on expected points.
 
The cynic would say that Belichick / McDaniels blew it with their play calling on the preceding 3 plays. I mean seriously, a corner fade to a 5'8" WR? Over Blount just running it in?
 
Jesus christ whats wrong with you guys. Last year in one of the most memorable days of my life calvin johnson broke rices record on mnf in a saturday against the falcons. I am dissapointed in every single one of you. More so on you falcon and lion fans.
 
JackieChun said:
Maybe I'm crazy (I probably am), but isn't this...not really a good thing? Since a division only has four teams, that makes Ponder only better than one starting QB. I know we have 2nd and 3rd strings etc etc., but I feel like this is nothing to write home about. But if not, then I will open mouth > insert foot.
Click to expand...

please dont take anything detroitlolcat says seriously, he is a known troll. ponder is not better than any of stafford/cutler/rodgers
 
I suppose it's not really the chance, but historically what happened. It doesn't really take into account situations where a field goal would win the game, so the team shouldn't go for a touchdown (ie the end of the Denver-Dallas game), so I guess it is pretty irrelevant.

So far this season there have been 349 offensive touchdowns in 77 games, compared to 262 field goals. That's a 4-3 ratio, so it's not too far off from the 3-2 ratio from years past despite the small sample size.

should have probably used chance with 2 minutes left (even if there wasn't exactly two minutes left), which is fitted to 30% for a TD and 40% for a FG or TD from one's own 35.

so that'd be a .55*.4 = 22% chance of tying for going for it, vs a 1*.3 = 30% chance of tying by kicking a field goal. of course, it doesn't take into account the chance of scoring two TDs, which would likely win the game rather than just forcing OT.
 
Atlanta had two chances. Tsk tsk.


Looks like the refs aren't going to let the Jets win this football game.
 
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Killah said:
pls trade him to the chiefs atlanta
Click to expand...

this was a rumor today, gonzalez said he has 0 interest in leaving falcons, altho if the falcons can get anything for him, i think they clearly have to jump on that...but tony g proly has too much say in it
 
Yeah, I'm a known troll guys. Obviously, because two weeks ago I said I believed in the Jets offense (outdueled the Falcons' offense), Chicago and Cutler is extremely overrated (two straight blowout losses where Cutler played poorly), and that the Texans were average and would miss the playoffs (Preposterous!). Protip: if my predictions are doing well, don't accuse me of trolling :)

In fact, I'll put my (figurative) money where my mouth is. Here's my predictions for the rest of the 2013 season.

NFC East:
Philadelphia 12-4
Dallas 6-10
NY Giants 4-12
Washington 2-14

This is mostly due to strength of schedule. Philly's got a great home field advantage and a creampuff road schedule, plus they've contended in every game of their tough schedule so far besides @ Denver. 2-3 is deceiving, they could easily be 4-1 right now. If Vick stays healthy, watch out, NFL. Dallas has no defense, and the Giants and Redskins have dug themselves a hole too deep to get out of. Not to mention RG3's reluctance to run.

NFC West:
Seattle 14-2
San Francisco 13-3
Arizona 6-10
St. Louis 2-14

San Francisco's remaining schedule is so easy it's unfair. Expect to see this team vying for the division for the rest of this year, but Seattle'll take it thanks to the best home field advantage in the NFL, the most complete roster in the NFL, and a joke of a road schedule. St. Louis is young and rebuilding, while Carson Palmer is obviously not the answer in Arizona. Arizona is where quarterbacks go to die, you know.

NFC South:
New Orleans 15-1
Carolina 7-9
Atlanta 4-12
Tampa Bay 4-12

The second-worst offense in the league will understand why Mike Glennon is not the answer. Atlanta's injured beyond belief and obviously not very good judging by their 1-4 record. Carolina's a pretty average team, and New Orleans is a Super Bowl contender with a cakewalk of a schedule.

NFC North:

Green Bay 13-3
Detroit 12-4
Chicago 8-8
Minnesota 5-11

I've hated on Chicago, but I'll give them a little credit. Brandon Marshall is a baller, the running game is great, and the defense is okay too. I'm not sold on Cutler. Detroit's remaining schedule is no problem for them (look at who they play at home and on the road!), they'll lock up the second NFC wild card with ease. Same case with Green Bay, the only game I see them losing in the future is @ Detroit. Ponder's hurt, Freeman's new (has to learn the offense), and Cassel's bad. I'm sorry, Adrian Peterson.

AFC North:
Cincinnati 12-4
Cleveland 7-9
Pittsburgh 6-10
Baltimore 3-13

Baltimore has a monster schedule, a pick-happy QB, and too many injuries. Will they lose out? Probably not, but I can't see a game on their schedule that they'll win. Pittsburgh will get healthier and Big Ben will get out of the funk he's in, but the ship has sailed on this team. Cleveland isn't bad, but they're not particularly good either. It's tough being a team that's all set except at QB since they'll likely play themselves out of a high draft pick. Maybe Hoyer is the QB of the future in Cleveland! Cincinnati isn't 12-4 good, but that's the benefit of playing in one of the NFL's worst divisions.

AFC East:

NY Jets 11-5
New England 9-7
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 5-11

The Jets are for real. The Jets are for real. The Jets are for real. There, okay. They win that division. New England will regress to the mean, but they're still a winning football team. The Dolphins, eh, I'm not sold. Two straight losses including a woeful choke job against a Baltimore team I have no faith in have tempered my expectations for the Dolphins. Bills are too hurt to accomplish anything this season, they have actually let Jeff Tuel see the field in the regular season and are banking on Thaddeus Lewis to bail them out. If you're asking who Jeff Tuel and Thaddeus Lewis are, well, so is Doug Marrone.

AFC West:

Denver 15-1
Kansas City 14-2
San Diego 7-9
Oakland 2-14

The Chiefs lose both their games against Denver, but can easily win out thanks to being in a meh division (AFC West), playing against a bad division (NFC East), and having a last-place schedule. Denver's nearly unstoppable, though I don't think they win at Indy. SD's a good team and Phil Rivers is having a bounce-back year, but having to play KC and DEN four times will sting. Oakland is a fun team to watch, but their offense is pitiful. Pryor has a future in this league though.

AFC South:

Indianapolis 13-3
Tennessee 9-7
Houston 8-8
Jacksonville 0-16

The Texans aren't a bad team, to be honest. Schaub's having a down year, but he's been a traditionally underrated player and I think he'll bounce back. Andrew Luck's a sophomore sensation with a great coach, and Trent Richardson will help them get over the hump. Tennessee is not a bad team, I've always liked Ryan Fitzpatrick (HE IS NOT A GREAT QB. HE IS GOOD ENOUGH TO START. I DO NOT THINK HE IS GOOD, JUST LIKE I DON'T THINK PONDER IS GOOD. I THINK THEY ARE AVERAGE. OKAY.) and Locker, when he comes back, has shown promise. Look me in the eye and tell me the Jags will win a game. You can't. Because they won't.

Playoffs:
AFC:
1. Denver
2. Indinapolis
3. NY Jets
4. Cincinnati
5. Kansas City
6. Tennessee (tie-breaker will go to TEN>NE)

NFC:
1. New Orleans
2. Seattle
3. Green Bay
4. Philadelphia
5. San Francisco
6. Detroit

Wild Card Round:
3. NY Jets>6. Tennessee
4. Cincinnati>5. Kansas City
3. Green Bay>6. Detroit
4. Philadelphia> 5.San Francisco

Divisional Round:
1. Denver>4. Cincinnati
2. Indianapolis>3. NY Jets
1. New Orleans> 4. Philadelphia
2. Seattle> 3. Green Bay

Conference Championships:

1. Denver>2. Indianapolis
1. New Orleans>2. Seattle (SEA is the better team but NO does not lose playoff games at home lol)

Super Bowl:

Denver>New Orleans
 
cutler threw for 358 yards, 2 tds 0 ints with a 10.8 ypa and 72% completion percentage vs the team you are predicting to be the nfc champion and that translates to "he played poorly"? congrats, you're the skip bayless of smogon

also it's way too early to call the texans average, they still have great weapons on both sides of the ball including the best defensive player in the NFL and they also went through a patch of throwing 4 pick 6s in 4 games, while playing @ baltimore (a team that not only consistently wins home games, but has had the texans number for years, 7-1 alltime (since 2002) making last years texans win seem more fluky than anything), @ san fran (consensus top 5 team), @ san diego, and hosting the titans (a popular pre-season playoff pick) and seattle (the pre-season consensus "best team in the nfl"). schaub's confidence is busted right now but all it takes is a win at home vs the rams and a huge win vs the chiefs the next week to have them flying high again (and i think they can definitely beat the chiefs, there's no real reason they shouldn't be able to completely stop the chiefs offense)

the saints were a red zone conversion away from losing to the falcons at home, and then basically got lucky and beat a shitty bucs team 16-14. they're very good but 15-1? they still have: @ new england, cowboys, 49ers, @falcons, @seahawks along with a road trap of @rams followed by @panthers late in the season.

i have no idea what trent richardson you're watching that is supposed to get the colts over the hump (luck got them over "the hump" already anyway), he's rushed for an embarrassing 3.1 ypa so far this year, actually worse than his bad 3.5 of last season. remember how i said the colts and browns were both losers for this trade? i was clearly wrong, the browns are clear winners.

baltimore losing 11 straight games to close the season is actually just the most retarded thing i've ever heard, they play the steelers twice, the browns, and have home games vs the jets and vikings.

kansas city is not going 14-0 outside of denver, give me a break. their numbers are inflated by beating on 2 of the top 10 historically worst teams in nfl history in the jags/giants

philadelphia finishing 12-4, no comment needed

honestly i mean im fine with people posting thoughts but you just don't even bother to research or watch the teams you're talking about, these predictions are an embarrassment
 
DetroitLolcat said:
Yeah, I'm a known troll guys. Obviously, because two weeks ago I said I believed in the Jets offense (outdueled the Falcons' offense), Chicago and Cutler is extremely overrated (two straight blowout losses where Cutler played poorly), and that the Texans were average and would miss the playoffs (Preposterous!). Protip: if my predictions are doing well, don't accuse me of trolling :)

In fact, I'll put my (figurative) money where my mouth is. Here's my predictions for the rest of the 2013 season.

NFC East:
Philadelphia 12-4
Dallas 6-10
NY Giants 4-12
Washington 2-14

This is mostly due to strength of schedule. Philly's got a great home field advantage and a creampuff road schedule, plus they've contended in every game of their tough schedule so far besides @ Denver. 2-3 is deceiving, they could easily be 4-1 right now. If Vick stays healthy, watch out, NFL. Dallas has no defense, and the Giants and Redskins have dug themselves a hole too deep to get out of. Not to mention RG3's reluctance to run.

NFC West:
Seattle 14-2
San Francisco 13-3
Arizona 6-10
St. Louis 2-14

San Francisco's remaining schedule is so easy it's unfair. Expect to see this team vying for the division for the rest of this year, but Seattle'll take it thanks to the best home field advantage in the NFL, the most complete roster in the NFL, and a joke of a road schedule. St. Louis is young and rebuilding, while Carson Palmer is obviously not the answer in Arizona. Arizona is where quarterbacks go to die, you know.

NFC South:
New Orleans 15-1
Carolina 7-9
Atlanta 4-12
Tampa Bay 4-12

The second-worst offense in the league will understand why Mike Glennon is not the answer. Atlanta's injured beyond belief and obviously not very good judging by their 1-4 record. Carolina's a pretty average team, and New Orleans is a Super Bowl contender with a cakewalk of a schedule.

NFC North:

Green Bay 13-3
Detroit 12-4
Chicago 8-8
Minnesota 5-11

I've hated on Chicago, but I'll give them a little credit. Brandon Marshall is a baller, the running game is great, and the defense is okay too. I'm not sold on Cutler. Detroit's remaining schedule is no problem for them (look at who they play at home and on the road!), they'll lock up the second NFC wild card with ease. Same case with Green Bay, the only game I see them losing in the future is @ Detroit. Ponder's hurt, Freeman's new (has to learn the offense), and Cassel's bad. I'm sorry, Adrian Peterson.

AFC North:
Cincinnati 12-4
Cleveland 7-9
Pittsburgh 6-10
Baltimore 3-13

Baltimore has a monster schedule, a pick-happy QB, and too many injuries. Will they lose out? Probably not, but I can't see a game on their schedule that they'll win. Pittsburgh will get healthier and Big Ben will get out of the funk he's in, but the ship has sailed on this team. Cleveland isn't bad, but they're not particularly good either. It's tough being a team that's all set except at QB since they'll likely play themselves out of a high draft pick. Maybe Hoyer is the QB of the future in Cleveland! Cincinnati isn't 12-4 good, but that's the benefit of playing in one of the NFL's worst divisions.

AFC East:

NY Jets 11-5
New England 9-7
Miami 7-9
Buffalo 5-11

The Jets are for real. The Jets are for real. The Jets are for real. There, okay. They win that division. New England will regress to the mean, but they're still a winning football team. The Dolphins, eh, I'm not sold. Two straight losses including a woeful choke job against a Baltimore team I have no faith in have tempered my expectations for the Dolphins. Bills are too hurt to accomplish anything this season, they have actually let Jeff Tuel see the field in the regular season and are banking on Thaddeus Lewis to bail them out. If you're asking who Jeff Tuel and Thaddeus Lewis are, well, so is Doug Marrone.

AFC West:

Denver 15-1
Kansas City 14-2
San Diego 7-9
Oakland 2-14

The Chiefs lose both their games against Denver, but can easily win out thanks to being in a meh division (AFC West), playing against a bad division (NFC East), and having a last-place schedule. Denver's nearly unstoppable, though I don't think they win at Indy. SD's a good team and Phil Rivers is having a bounce-back year, but having to play KC and DEN four times will sting. Oakland is a fun team to watch, but their offense is pitiful. Pryor has a future in this league though.

AFC South:

Indianapolis 13-3
Tennessee 9-7
Houston 8-8
Jacksonville 0-16

The Texans aren't a bad team, to be honest. Schaub's having a down year, but he's been a traditionally underrated player and I think he'll bounce back. Andrew Luck's a sophomore sensation with a great coach, and Trent Richardson will help them get over the hump. Tennessee is not a bad team, I've always liked Ryan Fitzpatrick (HE IS NOT A GREAT QB. HE IS GOOD ENOUGH TO START. I DO NOT THINK HE IS GOOD, JUST LIKE I DON'T THINK PONDER IS GOOD. I THINK THEY ARE AVERAGE. OKAY.) and Locker, when he comes back, has shown promise. Look me in the eye and tell me the Jags will win a game. You can't. Because they won't.

Playoffs:
AFC:
1. Denver
2. Indinapolis
3. NY Jets
4. Cincinnati
5. Kansas City
6. Tennessee (tie-breaker will go to TEN>NE)

NFC:
1. New Orleans
2. Seattle
3. Green Bay
4. Philadelphia
5. San Francisco
6. Detroit

Wild Card Round:
3. NY Jets>6. Tennessee
4. Cincinnati>5. Kansas City
3. Green Bay>6. Detroit
4. Philadelphia> 5.San Francisco

Divisional Round:
1. Denver>4. Cincinnati
2. Indianapolis>3. NY Jets
1. New Orleans> 4. Philadelphia
2. Seattle> 3. Green Bay

Conference Championships:

1. Denver>2. Indianapolis
1. New Orleans>2. Seattle (SEA is the better team but NO does not lose playoff games at home lol)

Super Bowl:

Denver>New Orleans
Click to expand...

If the Ravens lose out or even finish last, I will sell you my fucking kidney.

Also you have a lot of teams finishing at 13 or above wins which never happens. Only team I see finishing at 14+ wins is the Broncos.

Edit: kd24 you are pretty right lol.
 
So we just met 50% of brazilian broncos fans? Cool.

Eggs ain't winning 12 in a row. Might pull of 9-7 and rip the division out of romos hand in the season finale(for the third straight year, third different team) though.
 
WaterBomb said:
be careful about making bets on here Stallion. Remember what happened last time :D
Click to expand...

Cause flacco sat the final game of the regular season! If he'd played I'd almost certainly have won. I just didn't think we'd have the division wrapped up so early ;-)
 
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