NOC Why Is There A Gun In My Popcorn? 2: Old Country Boogaloo [GAME OVER Town Wins]

I don't think there's anything gained from hesitance, especially because scum aren't going to contribute unless it's required. I highly believe in the hipfire esp when there's wiggle room but also I'd get tired of retreading the same topics of having the unknowns pop-in with less than stellar content when you could just threaten them with bullets
ok maybe ill shoot early but not before Hannahh gets a chance to tell me who they think I should shoot instead.
 

Flyhn

Mafia Champion
well its probably safer to eliminate vengeful slots early than to have them around near the endgame.
Good point

I think irs possible that I was given the gun due to my previous tr of clarinet in addition to being universally town read.
because I'd be the person least expected to shoot Hannahh.
The universal tr would've been my first guess, but I'm willing to bet when DS got shot first the scumteam was just like "OH SHIT".. this feels very much like a Plan B from them
 
Scunteam is some subset of hal/Fenrir/Jordan/ds/samoyed I think, I thought about this earlier but I'm a bit tipsy rn.

Town players are like Texas/moody I think and clarinet maybe townspewed by hal.
 

Flyhn

Mafia Champion
Scunteam is some subset of hal/Fenrir/Jordan/ds/samoyed I think, I thought about this earlier but I'm a bit tipsy rn.

Town players are like Texas/moody I think and clarinet maybe townspewed by hal.
Interesting theory here.. I don't think this is entirely correct though. Perhaps one of the named town core are a deepscum, but putting two of them here? I'm skeptical
 
Hey, thanks for the summary, Flyhn!

I disagree with your conclusion about me, but I can see why you went for it.

M2H: I agree that early vengeful elimination is a very good thing. Example, 2 village dead and 1 vengeful dead:
>>> calcWin(9,4,2)
0.6268186178900464
>>> winWithDraw(9,4,2)
0.7246862264719409
>>> winWithDraw(9,4,2)-calcWin(9,4,2)
0.09786760858189447
>>> 1-winWithDraw(9,4,2)
0.2753137735280591

62.7% win now, 9.8% of a tie, and 27.5% of mafia win. (Yeah, I want to earn the win, but the odds just went up considerably)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I agree again with Flyhn's read on the Clarinet slot, but feel Hannahh should be given a good-faith time to defend their slot.

BIG THING, THOUGH
#468- We get a full readslist. Town: Samoyed/Mewtwo/hal. Townlean: Magic/Caffeine/Jalmont. Neutral: bonerman/toni/Fenrir/Me. Scumlean: Moody/Jordan/AG/WaterLily. Scum: Clarinet.

I wouldn't hesitate to say Sam is a near-universal townread, Mewtwo... gunbearer. Hal is interesting there; I'll need to look at him some more, in case he was trying to insert a scum among two townies. His leans and neutrals ... no real point there, except maybe his scumleans: if he was bussing Clarinet (now Hannahh), then by all means let's look into all four of them (even me, but I assure you, I'm town!)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I want Hannahh to actually have a chance to play. But I really see a lot of it being based on if DS was bussing Hannahh or going for a mislynch.
 
i think they gunned mewtwo because he’s a universal townread and a good player?

what doesn’t make sense to me is why Vengeful DS would try to get shot? Or Vengeful!Clarinet? Don’t scum want vengefuls around till endgame because in a 1v1 they draw? Vengefuls are also more beneficial to scum lategame than now
 
#407- responds to bonerman claiming Clarinet's a bit too consensus to be believable by claiming they've been pushing this since before Bloody got shot. Not true except for the LAST post they made before that shot. Another hindsight red flag @_@
#409- calls bonerman a scum!Clarinet partner based on him saying he won't clear anyone after the fact for talking about his post-deletion
#412- agrees with Asek's town core, particularly Samoyed because of his scum meta
#414- more defensive responses to bonerman

from Flyhn, on DS. ofc

I get from this that bonerman is probably town and shouldn't be shot any time soon. Adding him to my "probably won't shoot if I get the gun" list with Samoyed. I mean, I might, but I probably wouldn't.
 
i think they gunned mewtwo because he’s a universal townread and a good player?

what doesn’t make sense to me is why Vengeful DS would try to get shot? Or Vengeful!Clarinet? Don’t scum want vengefuls around till endgame because in a 1v1 they draw? Vengefuls are also more beneficial to scum lategame than now
I don't think DS was trying to get shot is the thing.
 
i think they gunned mewtwo because he’s a universal townread and a good player?

what doesn’t make sense to me is why Vengeful DS would try to get shot? Or Vengeful!Clarinet? Don’t scum want vengefuls around till endgame because in a 1v1 they draw? Vengefuls are also more beneficial to scum lategame than now
Maybe he was badly trying not to be? Which indicates bussing Clarinet...
 

Flyhn

Mafia Champion
So I was going through Popcorn 1 in search of more material on AG's meta... and I came across my ISO of him in that game, and comparing the part of his ISO for the first couple cycles of that game to what I can gather from him this game.. he seems to be very different so far.. huh.

Also of note is a poor lapse in my memory. It wasn't AG that suggested the randshot strategy in the first game, it was actually Haruno who did this, and AG originally disagreed with it. AS SCUM. This i also find incredibly interesting... does this point to scum!AG not liking the idea simply because of the bad odds? O_O
 
In popcorn 1, randing was not only not fun, but more importantly against me. Here, it's still not a fun solution, but it is one. I'm mostly posting the odds every so often so that gunbearer (and those advising them, myself included) can make an informed decision. Also because I figure it'll make a decent talking point.

(I'm not posting odds of hitting mafia on any one shot because that's easy.)
 
In popcorn 1, randing was not only not fun, but more importantly against me. Here, it's still not a fun solution, but it is one. I'm mostly posting the odds every so often so that gunbearer (and those advising them, myself included) can make an informed decision. Also because I figure it'll make a decent talking point.

(I'm not posting odds of hitting mafia on any one shot because that's easy.)
the problem is when you use rng as an excuse to not give reads, which I don't think I've seen from you this game.
 

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