im rereading when twin was still alive and extremely suspicious of flyhn. i think its possible twin just wanted to make a Big Play and shoot the possible mole he thought he would've otherwise lost to. but lets consider it was more than that.
his reasoning seemed to be that flyhn got consensus towned by mafia teammates pushing him there.
we know flyhn is town now but what if this logic wasn't terribly far off?
i've posited that if flyhn was town (now conf) getting pushed to never-shoot status it's because the mafia felt their last player could outplay him/get him shot.
twin felt likely scumbuddies for flyhn would've been unclesam, asek, ag, blazade. obviously these can't all be it but at least ag was right. us/asek/blazade were for defending flyhn, as twin notes sam popped out of the woodwork to 'defend' flyhn a bit.
i think that an asek/sam scumteam is probably asek's most plausible team. both of these players would feel they could outwit flyhn in f3 crunch time, or whoever the final gunbearer was to get them to shoot flyhn.
asek has been dodging moody's question for days now as silly as asking why asek's like first reads post has changed in 10+ shots' worth of time is.
moody has this post: Rn Twin and one of Asek/Unclesam are the two I'd be fine with having stick around to the endgame
which i think lends to the moody/sam scumteam theory
p sure moody had been hardcore on the shoot sam train and then pissed off it to opportunistic vote anyone else.
http://www.smogon.com/forums/thread...arer-still-flyhn.3599297/page-25#post-7292803
here is the post where asek, right after dle suggests it, says flyhn as endgame.
i think this lends to the notion asek's second best teammate is the dle/walrein slot. dle posits this idea and asek comes in with flyhn who their team thinks will be pretty easy to snatch victory from. i think it's easy to see why twin felt flyhn could've been scum getting pushed to this position by teammates and since we now know flyhn is town we can go off the notion there are scum within us/asek/blazade/dle who felt flyhn would be an easy f3 clinch. especially with how each time flyhn iso'd someone they became a town read.
i think that moody and fh have both done the thing w-d did where the scumlist consists of too few people or some absurdist statement (IE moody's "at least 2 scum in [list half of game here] post).
its also probable the scum took up townreading flyhn to blend in once they noticed he was fairly consensus from the rest of the village.
i think ag/moody had the same kind of "wow! good shot!" reaction posts to seem towny. filler that says nothing about the game but enthusiasm. shady.
i feel like fh and ag share a very consistent, lengthy read. fh had been reading leet as scum for DAYS and it doesn't feel like his read really progressed. ag made some half-hearted efforts to change his scumread of me to less scummy and back. but neither really reconsiders their views, they just sort of decided they were gonna read X as town and Y as scum. see also, fh's consistent and determined tr of me. in contrast to ag. then again town!leet also fixated on fh as scum.
back to flyhn, josh makes this post when haruno shot empoof:
http://www.smogon.com/forums/thread...arer-still-flyhn.3599297/page-28#post-7294271
as if shooting flyhn would've been gravely worse than empoof. i think it's clear from this the scum were going to townread flyhn for towncred.
http://www.smogon.com/forums/thread...arer-still-flyhn.3599297/page-30#post-7295081
this after flyhn's isos have all led to him townreading people. josh seems very concerned with flyhn and his opinions.
fh doesn't feel like he fits as a josh teammate or a flyhn pusher so if you put stock in the theory flyhn was an inside job, fh goes down on your shot list and your ideal pool becomes us/asek/blazade/walrein, 2 of those are scum.
if you think flyhn was being townread by scum solely to get towncred, then depending on where you feel a TvS between moody/fh comes down, moody/fh would be your best shot. reading moody/fh(/leet) as TvT(vT) makes one of sam or walrein your best bet i believe. this makes me think of something: after seeing TvT leet/fh, scumoody jumps onto the fh bandwagon thinking fh is going to shoot leet and die before he shoots moody. leet then is never going to shoot moody his buddy in pressing fh. it is a bit of a risky play in that fh could choose to shoot moody first, but i think that fh was going to shoot leet first (obviously before leet's flip) in almost any circumstance. esp since moody had been pushing other people when leet began scumreading fh and pushing him.
UncleSam explain your progression from:
I'm a little confused why everyone's been letting Asek skate by with literal useless one liner posts this entire game, he's rapidly falling in my estimation
to townreading asek
http://www.smogon.com/forums/thread...arer-still-flyhn.3599297/page-33#post-7296681
i think josh has a bit of a defense here and asek is pretty anti-moody at this point, i find it unlikely asek and moody are teammates and how likely i find moody to be scum means i think asek is unlikely to be mafia. a boozle on the moody flip means i need to reconsider asek heavily. esp if sam flips scum and moody doesn't.
http://www.smogon.com/forums/thread...arer-still-flyhn.3599297/page-34#post-7297325
ag defends moody after dbw asks why he shouldn't shoot moody right then.
after jalmont gets the gun initially and calls for the vote a bunch of people (town and scum) bw onto sam. blazade votes moody. i think there are better odds blazade is a sam partner than a moody partner, hoping to avoid his teammate getting shot at that juncture. moody votes sam (could be seen as self-preservation) for this shot which fits with his play of bussing his teammate at this point.
"I take issue with you and fh taking issue. if I had the gun rn I would not be shooting Sam, I would be shooting fh. however, the entire point of this setup is that the power is in the hands of the gunbearer. I don't town read Sam and thus I'm alright with him being shot, and if I'm alright with it it should happen because that's jalmont the gunbearers choice of kill. you defeat the purpose of this if you don't put stock in the Gun."
does anyone know what to make of this josh post????????? im not sure if hes defending sam or trying to get him shot.
http://www.smogon.com/forums/thread...arer-still-flyhn.3599297/page-35#post-7299465
blazade, seeing the great wagoon onto sam, defends it as a bad shot. he then suggests rnging the shot and gets called out promptly. rereading this gives me big scum vibes.
http://www.smogon.com/forums/thread...arer-still-flyhn.3599297/page-36#post-7300544
now that we know w-d was scum this ambivalent asek post looks Really Bad. i feel like it's the kind of thing scum!dle has done wherein he goes "i just cant read X, i literally can never tell!!!" see: F&I mafia. this means he never has to make a definitive statement on a player he knows could prove problematic if he reads them wrong. i think asek has continued this trend with stuff like sam that's not really elaborated and sort of nebulous. plus the read onto me which has seemingly been "this slot is very hard for me to tell" wavering between scum and town reads all game. dunno just feels like asek is pretty hesitant to firmly read me one way or another, or a lot of other people. its favorable for town!asek to not just stick onto one read and tunnel but the total lack of confidence in some of these reads rubs me wrong.
anw tl;dr if you think flyhn got inside jobbed by the mafia as a town figurehead they felt they could f3 outplay, 2 of us/asek/blazade/walrein are almost assuredly the scum AND this makes fh v moody/leet all-town. if you think fh v moody is most likely to be TvS then flyhn probably just got townread to blend in. SvS fh/moody seems insanely unlikely.
i think that us/asek is the most likely team of that 4. blazade fits well with any of the other 3, us/asek above walrein. the walrein slot makes a lot of sense as the originator of the lock town 2 win idea and should absolutely not be discounted as setting up his teammates.
