Everybody read Naxte's post on the second page (now linked in the OP) as it gives great logical insight as to why it's a probably Generation 5. A good number of the people who have posted in this thread realize this likelihood in spite of their surprise, but a good explanation by someone who has been paying attention to or is at least aware of these trends for the last decade is valuable when breaking news like this first comes out.
Also, since I can't resist, I said this last year with regard to the Suspect Test:
http://www.smogon.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2379397
And there is a definitely time constraint, anyone who thinks we have forever to keep testing Gen 4 is going to be surprised when Gen 5 is likely announced this coming summer. As the longest facilitator of these tests, I have had this in mind forever, and have striven to test the most important things and as quickly as possible from the beginning
I meant announced in full detail and in Japan with respect to our simulators being able to implement the updates (like with Platinum and HGSS were), but yeah. To give a little more detail about the timelines:
RB was released in NA on September 30, 1998.
Yellow was released in NA on October 1, 1999.
GS was released in NA on October 14, 2000.
Crystal was released in NA on July 29, 2001.
RS was released in NA on March 19, 2003.
FRLG was released in NA on September 7, 2004.
Emerald was released in NA on May 1, 2005.
DP was released in NA on April 22, 2007.
Platinum was released in NA on March 21, 2009.
HGSS will be released in NA on March 14, 2010.
The main reason for the full two-year gap between Gen III and Gen IV, in my opinion, was the fact that FRLG and Emerald were released so close to each other. Even GS -> Crystal had 9½ months in between them, where that relatively short gap could be explained by the fact that Pokémon was still way too young to be concerned with remakes. I think the 7¾-month gap between FRLG and Emerald had more to do with FRLG being a hasty-inserted remake that I'd argue was released when it was mainly because TPC did not want a two-year gap without releasing a canonical Pokemon RPG.
It's no secret that TPC and Nintendo were disappointed in FRLG's sales, though I am not sure this facilitated an earlier release of Emerald (both here and in Japan) than would have occurred if FRLG hadn't sucked. If Emerald had been released 4-6 months later, a release that would have given FRLG over a year to "breathe", then we would have only had around 18 months between Gen III and Gen IV, which would have been much more reasonable and in line with genuine trends.
As it is now, an 18-month gap between Gen IV and Gen V would put us at around September 18, 2011 for an NA release, which means that, subtracting the given the typical 4-7 month lead time from Japan to NA releases, we are looking right at a February-May 2011 window for Japan to release this game.
That said, I want my Gen IV Pokemon Pinball already, sigh...though I guess the "trend" dictates that a pinball title would owe to Gen V since the first two were I and III (and neither were by Gamefreak so whatever)
I'll end with a funny note:
In November 2005,
Nintendo Power reported that "Total sales from [
Pokémon Emerald] would exceed the value of an actual emerald the size of
Neptune. It's true."
[69]