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Returning to Our Roots NOC Mafia - GAME OVER: The Mafia Wins

Discussion in 'Circus Maximus' started by Walrein, Nov 8, 2011.

  1. pokémaniac 212

    pokémaniac 212

    Joined:
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    @mithril, jalmont had asked my opinion on empoof, and since I was writing down brief opinions on his posts to help formulate one, I thought I may as well post the lot.

    Also, while Jalmont I agree is playing like a town, at the moment it doesn't override how scummy Aura Guardian was, although I'd probably recommend giving him a reprieve from being vig killed for tonight to let him post more so we can get a better opinion.
  2. Walrein

    Walrein

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    I'm assuming that the lack of activity as of late is due to the lack of a deadline. As a result, deadline is 25.5 hours from this post.

    Have a nice day.
  3. Orcinus Duo

    Orcinus Duo

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    Whaatt?

    Lynch Jalmont.[/B Aura Guardian was so incredibly scummy when he subbed out, for reasons that are pretty damn clear, and I really don't like the distancing that Jalmont's trying to do. A lack of read on empoof is shocking.
  4. Jalmont

    Jalmont

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    Could you explain to me how I'm "distancing" myself? While I can't really change your opinion on AG's actions, I can tell you right now that my supposed "lack of read on empoof" is probably because I haven't been following the thread religiously. When I have time I will look through Empoof's posts. I don't have much time right now but I will attempt to post more later.
  5. Quagsires

    Quagsires

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    Probably should've voted or started this process earlier, but...

    Pernicious has not gotten on Smogon since he posted. If he does not explain himself, I would ask that either Walrein subs him or he is vigged due to not doing anything and following in the footsteps of his predecessors in suspicion. If people want him out sooner, they can vote him.

    I would like a hard claim from EP, since claiming ANY power role under pressure NEVER looks good (See: Bagon), and I would consider any scumfinding roles left in this game to look into him tonight, though I doubt you exist. BG, which after Bagon's death is confirmed to exist, you decide on whether he is worth protecting or not.

    Jalmont, your job is simple: If you are real, hook the mafia. There will be one kill if this happens from the vig alone. If this does not work I strongly advise we lynch you tomorrow.

    Empoof is a suspicion of mine, but I'm still not sure if its worth a vote. I'll likely change tomorrow, but I want him to have a post to explain himself and watch his vote.

    poke I feel is either a very helpful yet beginner player, but I think he contributes enough to at least be able to bounce ideas off of the wall from other people, and he makes up his own opinions through careful analysis. However, the other view I have of him is that he could be a mafia trying to direct the lynches.

    For now, and this is temporary, but I'm gonna Vote: Auramaster., the main reason is that I just can't read you from some reason. Might change, might not. But let's hear him speak.
  6. Empoof

    Empoof

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    Okay... how is Jalmont supposed to target mafia when he doesn't know who they are? I understand the idea, and he can target suspicious people, but not hooking mafia =/= Jalmont as mafia...

    And what am I supposed to explain? If anything I can keep my lynch vote on him until he claims (if that even matters right now or not...), but so far he still is suspicious in my eyes. At first I was thinking we needed to conserve our lynch votes, but once the conversation was dwiddling and we needed people to have any sort of banter to have more post to analyze and poke through. Someone that I saw as suspicious began posting rebuttals, that sounds like a good thing to me. There were two votes on him, we need six for majority iirc. I'm pretty sure there's not enough mafia left to swing us to majority that quickly without it being obvious. If we're supposed to be careful with our votes you probably shouldn't vote aura just to get him to talk then? Or am I misunderstanding something. You wanting someone you think is suspicious to start talking more...

    Auramaster, who are the most suspicious people right now and why? Please also include your thoughts on Pernicious, EP, Jalmont, Quagsires, and Myself if they happen to not be on the list. And what are your thoughts on EP claiming?

    I'm really fucking overworked and tired today, finals week and figuring out living arrangements for next quarter, but please feel free to ask me any questions you may have.

    I guess we all have excuses to be inactive right now &_&

    Where the fuck are you Pernicious......
  7. Flamestrike

    Flamestrike

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    I'm not sure how he's supposed to know who to hook seeing as we don't know any specific mafia.

    The fact that NWO has gone missing is rather disturbing, seeing as he's the cleanest opinion we have. I'm starting to wonder if we should put his mayor claim to the test by giving him a one-vote advantage over another lynch; if he's telling the truth then the lynch hits whoever else we targeted, and if not then it's tied and the jig is up. Of course he'll have to show up to do that.

    Nice to see EP finally posting some more substantial stuff, now hopefully we can see Auramaster and Mithril (and myself x_x) post some more.

    EDIT: ninjaed by Empoof lol, and I know how you feel. So many assignments to finish in so little time ;_;
  8. Jalmont

    Jalmont

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    Quagsires, please explain how I am supposed to hook mafia when I don't know any mafia? Any thoughts on who you think I should hook?

    While I believe we should let Pernicious explain himself if he's does not post in another 24 hours he should either be lynched or subbed out.

    Overall, I am getting suspicious of Quagsires for:
    1. Wanting me to hook the mafia, even though I don't know who the mafia is. This logically makes zero sense.
    2. He is suspicious of Empoof but lacks any real reason.
    3. In his first post he tells us that he is suspicious of pokemaniac212, but then he comes back and says that pokemaniac is a helpful player. What?
  9. auramaster

    auramaster

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    Lol was just thinking Flamestrike hadn't posted in a while.

    Hey Quagsires, I am speaking. I don't really have anything to add to the discussion, which is why I haven't posted much lately.

    Right now I think Engineer Pikachu and Pernicious are the most suspicious, both for reasons already mentioned. Also keeping a close eye on Jalmont because of Aura's actions, although I don't consider him as suspicious as EP and Pernicious, primarily because of Aura's lynching of kongs. Now that pokemaniac 212 is posting more and trying to be more helpful, no one else sticks out to me as possible Mafia except those three.

    Empoof: Seems like newb town to me. Has made some mistakes, such as voting for No Lynch Day 1, but overall has been trying to help the village, so probably village.

    Quagsires: Both he and nEsp have been making good posts to help the village, and neither have done anything suspicious that I've noticed.

    My thoughts on EP claiming: No claim will change the fact that he hasn't been very helpful in discussions, and claiming will help the Mafia get more information, so I don't see any advantage to him claiming his power. More experienced players, feel free to correct me.

    Jalmont's Hook: Hook the most suspicious person that isn't lynched.

    I wish I had something more significant to say :(
  10. Mithril

    Mithril
    is a Past WCoP Winner

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    There are two people that have started to bother me right now. We have AG / Jalmont, with the public claim of hooker and OD, who up until today was one of the most vocal leaders trying to promote discussion for the village, and yet neither of them have been targeted the mafia. I find it very unlikely that they both are mafia, but the fact that neither of them has been taken out yet seems very suspicious to me. I would like to hear some thoughts on this if possible.

    I think I am also of the opinion that EP should probably claim at this point. If he is village, he has already claimed a power role, so the mafia is likely to target him. And if the role is something worth saving, the BG can decide to protect him if necessary. Because if he is mafia, there is the chance for counterclaims, and its just more information, which in my opinion is only useful at this point.

    Lastly, I also agree with the sentiments that the vig should kill Pernicious. If none of the people that have had that role are going to bother posting, they are of no help to the village. But I think we can do more use attempting to lynch somebody that we can actually get a read on, and someone who never posts definitely does not fit that mold.
  11. khz

    khz

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    As a support for your point against OD, he tries to discount the use of night kill information in making a decision on who is scum, saying:

    It's interesting that he tries to discount evidence that is the main reason for how he might be scum. However that still doesn't explain the sudden drop of activity, though given how busy RL can get it's probably not fair to lynch him solely based on this current inactivity.
  12. Empoof

    Empoof

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    Not getting night killed isn't enough to label OD/AGJalmont as scum. So far, mafia has attacked critical power roles that they could have easily found through their former inspector Ditto.

    I've been thinking a lot about Engineer Pikachu claiming, and while I still find him suspicious I think that he shouldn't claim unless we end up making him the surefire lynch target for the day. If he ends up as our lynch target, it's almost inevitable that he'll be lynched anyway if he attempts to claim a pivotal role (as he could be making a last ditch effort to save his mafia life while also hoping someone else will counterclaim). I don't think him claiming anything right now is that beneficial to town, but it does make him a (WIFOM) possible BG target as well. If it comes to him getting to L-1, it's claiming time.

    I might not be on again to make any crucial posts before deadline (various small posts like this one will be possible and lynch vote changes) because i have sleep and class, so I'd like to note that Jalmont should post his results and who he targets next cycle if he doesn't get lynched/NK'd.

    We've only got about 13 hours until deadline, it's time for us to come to a consensus about who we're lynching. While deadline extension is helpful, we can't make it our cop out thing to do. Day's gotta end sometime...

    EDIT: Oh i forgot to unvote for now
  13. Orcinus Duo

    Orcinus Duo

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    Wait screw this previous post I thought khz's post was jalmont's. See, this is why I don't post stuff from my phone anymore.

    I said that the nightkill logic was crappy because...well, it is if you've played any amount of NOC games. Sometimes, active, pro-town players are intentionally left alive to get lynched. I have been busy in real life, very busy, since semesters are coming up. However, I'm still keeping up with this thread. I find it interesting that khz uses a fundamentally flawed argument against me...night kill logic is and always will be inherently flawed because of the sheer amount of WIFOM it begets.

    Quagsires, given his experience in games, shouldn't be allowed to say something stupid like
    Furthermore, asking engineer to claim is so anti-town it's not even funny. Engineer isn't going to be lynched today, I dearly hope. I've looked through his posts in the last few pages, and he looks like town, I really don't see any flaws in that argument. Being new to NOC, he cannot possibly be expected to contribute in every way you ask. Instead, I think that quagsires is trying to flush out the power roles by getting them to claim needlessly. I would agree that engineer should claim should we start seriously considering him as a lynch target, but quagsire's request was very premature. Jalmont also brings up a good point with contradicting reads on pokemaniac. I also dislike his saying that Aura Guardian's reads were in any way sane, because they simply weren't, unless quagsires could bring to light why the hell a list of reads and changing votes are scumtells. Thus, I am very open to unvote, Lynch Quagsires
  14. Empoof

    Empoof

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    Tentative Vote Tally
    Quagsires (1): Orcinus Duo
    Engineer Pikachu (1): pokemaniac 212
    auramaster (1): Quagsires

    Orcinus if you have time please go back and unbold all your votes... And let me know if I missed anybodies vote, theres a lot of bold from the back few pages but it looked like all of it was Orcinus.

    Deadline is in 4 hours. I apologize this post isn't very helpful but I have shit to do for 2 hours and hopefully I'll be more helpful then. This is a critical day for us to get a correct lynch so if you have any ideas that could help the village make decisions please spew them out.
  15. auramaster

    auramaster

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    I think we should Lynch Pernicious, worst case scenario we lose an unhelpful villager. Any objections to this lynch?
  16. Mithril

    Mithril
    is a Past WCoP Winner

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    I feel like that might be a waste of a lynch. While he may turn up mafia, we dont gain anything no matter what he flips in terms of information. I feel it is more useful to lynch somebody that has actually said something so we can attempt to find out more from there posts after the lynch. I think he would be a much better vig target than a lynch target. I would be much more comfortable trying to lynch either ep or jalmont.
  17. Quagsires

    Quagsires

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    I'll be frank here; I do not believe Jalmont and to a lesser extent EP to be village, and their claiming of roles is a major reason why. EP has claimed to have an action yet won't tell us what it is, which to me is worse than silence. Probably (rough estimate) 1/2 of the remaining actions are mafia, and with his normal stance that increases the odds of a good lynch on him dramatically. Asking him to claim it is not unreasonable in any way and is not enforceable in any way; doing so would either make or break my trust, which is already somewhat shattered as it is. I do not ask a lynch on him at the off chance that it is good, and that I believe others are more deserving.

    It is not unseasonable for Jalmont to be asked to hook mafia or be lynched when there are people like Pernicious that are very likely mafia. However, it was unfair under the assumption that one mafia being hooked stops the kill, as kok and Ditto's roles allude to the otherwise, which makes my argument for him void. Also, I would like you to disprove my disliking of Empoof as well. I could be wrong here, but I don't fully see why you are saying there is no evidence against someone.

    Pernicious I would like to know if anyone opposes the lynch of, since at the current moment I only do not approve because I believe a vig kill would be a more effective maneuver and, should the vig dies and their kill is negated, he or she should be the lynch tomorrow if he does not speak up.

    Aura, my vote on you was at a time where I was having to hurry off the computer, but to be fair, you have made less than 10 substantial posts in the thread, the majority of those being vote counts and short comments on them (less than I originally thought, so it was a bit unfair). This would be less than any active person, including Flamestrike, and including the posts of the subbed with the subs. I understand that you have conflicts (and OCC is a great organization), but disinterest with the game suggests mafia to an extent. Otherwise I'd argue you're somewhat town, but it still lingers. Either way, Unvote.

    If we want an information vote like Mithril suggested, I would propose Empoof vs. pokemaniac 212. One has been recently been called out as likely scum, one is posting long as if he is trying to direct the lynch either for village or against, and I don't like the immediate sight of either.

    Also looking back, I should probably in all fairness to EP mention Flame in the same line for ASB, although I would argue his posts are more packed with information and opinion. I would greatly support testing NWO if he gets online, although I suppose it will only be proven. The only argument I see against it is that speculation about him being wolf by the mafia, but that is ludicrous since the wolf is dead (supposedly).

    Khz has pretty much slipped through this discussion, but he does make small point here and there, and that is consistent. He may be right about OD, but I doubt it, since it seems that OD is just running into rl troubles (he has most of the posts here), and he'll hopefully be back soon.

    Jalmont does have a point against Mithril, he has not spoken up much, and due to their opinions of each other this may be a good info lynch, but I don't fully believe Mithril to be mafia, and I don't like voting for people like that. However, I do notice now that there is a point where Mithril votes Talkinglioon despite his beliefs on Pokemaniac, which is very odd and I would recommend for him never to do again just because consensus is on someone.

    So tl; dr, Walrein extend deadline.
  18. pokémaniac 212

    pokémaniac 212

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    I've read through EP's posts this phase, and to be fair to him his defence does make sense, and he raises some very valid points about AG, the one about him being hooked by a mafia hooker etc I hadn't personally considered. Therefore, while some suspicions of him remain to me, he's no longer top of my suspicious list. Because of this, while I think Jalmont has come across as town, its not enough to outweigh the significant suspicions of AG. Therefore unvote, Lynch Jalmont

    As for pernicious I have nothing against a vote on him, and would change should the consensus be to vote pernicious, its simply that I think there is solid suspicion against Jalmont, whereas for pernicious it is simply constant inactivity.
  19. Walrein

    Walrein

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    blah blah blah deadline extended 24 hours and all that shit
  20. Orcinus Duo

    Orcinus Duo

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    Quagsires please respond to my accusations
  21. Quagsires

    Quagsires

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    I did to the second and third part, backing down on the second due to realizing the logic was faulty for reasons you did not state, and as for the third, It's not anti-town at all, in fact I think it will help us if he has a trustable role and its unfair for us not to know that he's deliberately hiding something yet not willing to specify what, not to mention looking like he has no idea what to claim and is mafia to me. Otherwise I agree, he looks somewhat town, but the role part and the inactivity I believe is enough to warrant a possible lynch.

    And it's not up to me to determine the first part, I believe the nightkill is reliable enough for it to be warranted, however, why assume my decision is binding? If others disagree, let him die. I really do not care unless he comes to defend himself. No sane BG will protect him, and the only possible reason for failure is a mafia hooker or prio, unless they completely disagree with what seems to be a common belief.

    And I will say I expect everyone to contribute the same and only take the fact that someone is new into account when they fail to do so, since they have just as equal odds of being mafia as anyone else. Anything else is a fallacy, even if they fail to post with quality. Heck, using experience here is a fallacy, as you assume I am smarter and better than everyone else when I am not only not the most experienced, but also have quite imperfect luck, not to mention some people do really well their first games.

    Anything else?
  22. Jalmont

    Jalmont

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    what
    I come across as town, but you still want to lynch me anyways...
    Please explain how this works. You don't mention anything about Pernicious and his post, but I should apparently be lynched because AG acted scummy even though you say I come across as town.

    Hello could you please explain why you had two differing opinions on pokemaniac. I didn't see you address this so please explain. Pokemaniac looks scummy but then he looks clean?
  23. Orcinus Duo

    Orcinus Duo

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    How is engineer looking like he has no idea what to claim?

    Given the not-so-strong nature against him, a claim from engineer is unwarranted. Remember that we still have town announcer doc and vig in play, so engineer might have one of those roles. If you do force him to claim, town loses a major role 2/3. If he was mafia, he'd also be more careful about what he's saying. You know of the existing power roles and engineer is new...your refusal to consider them and instead offer the enticing but misleading statistic of 1/2 chance still makes me think you're scum.
  24. Quagsires

    Quagsires

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    Hello where did I mention pokemaniac in that post? And I don't remember saying he is clean at all...

    And OD, I think you're forgetting I can't force him to claim in any way. Why even assume I know an existing power role even (besides the possibility of my own role which, of course, will not be confirmed or denied). Why even assume mafia has 5 members (even though it's somewhat standard, it's a beginner. Less has just as good odds)? I think that nullifies all your points, since I don't even know if 1/2 is an accurate statistic (if Jalmont is real, if there's a backup, if... all disprove it), and I have no power to force what Engineer does.

    Also, why assume a person's opinion is the same as a group? Such an argument makes no sense. Stop assuming statistics and start looking at facts. You make me out like I'm experienced and everyone will blindly follow what I say, which is not remotely true, since if anything I'm proven to be wrong sometimes.
  25. Orcinus Duo

    Orcinus Duo

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    I'm not saying that town is scummy. I'm saying that you are.
    So you admit to having made up statistics...nice.
    Also, you called for him to claim. That is an anti-town move as stated before. I do not see the reasoning behind your defense at all. You try to say that because you can't force him to claim, thus your actions in trying to get him to claim were justified...?

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