Beginner Returning to Our Roots NOC Mafia - GAME OVER: The Mafia Wins

Discussion in 'Circus Maximus' started by Walrein, Nov 8, 2011.

  1. pokémaniac 212

    pokémaniac 212

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    So, reading that post from paperblade in hindsight, I take it as a soft-claim that mithril is clear, since his reasoning seemed pretty weak at the time, and mithril was under suspicion.

    I'm unconvinced by EP at the moment, since although his choice of khz as the inactive was an odd one, his explanation rings true for me.

    Also, why am I still being accused of inactivity. Yesterday I posted more than anyone else except possibly OD. Yes at the start I only posted when prodded, but I've realised thats bad and am working to be more active.

    Also, Hydrattler, if you read this, can you please give your 3 scummiest players, since I've seen you on here since I first asked and you still haven't replied.
  2. Orcinus Duo

    Orcinus Duo

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    Unvote, vote pokemaniac[/B for asking the same question again and again and again. I think that he's trying to pretend like he's contributing something by copying previously asked questions and posting them again. Also, please remind me what you've been contributing?
  3. pokémaniac 212

    pokémaniac 212

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    Which question am I asking again and again? If you mean asking Hydrattler for 3 scummiest players, then I'm asking it again because he still hasn't answered and I'm trying to stop it from getting buried. And I'm not copying anyone with that question because I was the first to ask it to hydrattler as far as I can remember.

    As for what I've contributed, I did a reread on day 2 or 3, can't remember which one, and came up with some points that caused discussion, such as pointing out the lack of substance to paperblade's posts. Admittedly he flipped town, but I wasn't the only person to become suspicious of him, and I think I was the first person to mention him. I was also the first person to question the constant assertion that flamestrike was town, which while he could well be, I think its interesting that Ditto described him as "level-headed, probably of a similar playstyle to me" after only 2 posts, which seems an odd assertion to make. That was in post #331: http://www.smogon.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3962409&postcount=331

    Yesterday, I spent the day putting presurre on Hydrattler to try and get him talking, and while none of my other posts proved that useful, I was at least there posting, which is more than can be said for some members who aren't being accused of inactivity. And I was at least trying to help, its just some of what I said, such as Bagon being a safe-lynch, was based off me misreading stuff, and I apologise for that.
  4. Orcinus Duo

    Orcinus Duo

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    So you don't find it helpful to maybe hunt out a few more players? It seems to me that you're trying to divert all of town's attention to hydrattler, and not worrying about anybody else. That's definitely scummy, narrowing the range of players to contemplate to...well, one.

    where the heck did "constant assertion that flamestrike was town" come in? Flamestrike has always been on my radar, and I'm pretty sure I wasn't alone in that assumption. He still is, but the point is that you're trying to claim credit for...well, nothing in particular.

    Again, hydrattler is an easy target. Goes back to first paragraph, your narrow-mindedness and intense focus on him isn't looking very helpful.
  5. pokémaniac 212

    pokémaniac 212

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    At the point at which I'd said that about 5 members, yourself included, had given town reads on him, and only one had put him so much as uncertain, it was only after my post that people like paperblade questioned him as well. As for hydrattler, I'm focusing on him and will continue to focus on him until he actually bothers posting, I'm still prefectly happy to give other scum suggestions, but between the post I linked and my 3 scummiest people plus a couple of others here: http://www.smogon.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3969070&postcount=450
    I think I've given opinions on 3 or 4 surviving players appearing scummy to some extent or other, I'm just choosing to focus on Hydrattler until he does something to aleviate that. Trying to put pressure on someone and then removing the pressure after a few hours to move on to someone else when they haven't even replied yet is hardly going to have any effect on people is it.
  6. Orcinus Duo

    Orcinus Duo

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    Hydrattler is a good vig target. He doesn't talk, doesn't do anything. Applying pressure on him won't give us any more information.
    Instead, we should try to use this opportunity where we can discuss to focus on people who are likely to give us information.
  7. Walrein

    Walrein

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    What? nEsp is evolving!

    Congratulations! Your nEsp evolved into Quagsires!
  8. Quagsires

    Quagsires

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    Reading the thread now, I'll post in a bit, remember to send actions if you're in Shift
  9. Empoof

    Empoof

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    Hey overactive day today, here's a short post.

    EP accidently claimed a power role! It's not very effective... What should town do about this? I know early game we're not supposed to claim, but is this a more ideal moment or less ideal? Personally I'm going with him not claiming unless we decide he's mafia, but I'd like peoples thoughts on this.

    We've already discussed EP's scumminess (which i can't read right now, because only page 22 loaded... I'll update this when i have better internet), I'm not really convinced he's town.

    Hydrattler seems like a good back up plan for a lynch if we feel uncomfortable about our scumtells, however we do have 22 pages of hard data that should hopefully help us get to some solid conclusion

    Hi quagsires
  10. Orcinus Duo

    Orcinus Duo

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    EP has a variety of roles to claim. Announcer, vig, doc, whatever. I find that 'slip' more town than scummy, scum would be more careful about what they say.
    I still think pokemaniac is a good target for stated reasons, and I encourage focus on him. Hydrattler is a vig target, focusing on him today wouldn't give town anything in terms of information.
  11. Empoof

    Empoof

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    That's true, i guess we can't really reliably trust claims without our village getting hurt from it at this point. I dunno if EP is mafia or town, since he could've adjusted his post style as we continuously told him he was IIoA...

    Right now i don't have many scumtells because i'm drunk. I feel there are a lot of people not contributing as much as they should to fit in with the social norm of this particular game of beginner/inactivity. I would consider most of them for analysis seeing as their small posts can actually tell alot (IIoAs or siding with the general consensus during lynch targets). Ditto was considered town by most of the users here (I think even i considered him town for his small doses of activity and harping of inactive users.) We definitely have to note that the mafia might be smarter than we're letting on to be.

    Since i have a hunch a lot of the posts act like this we have to take careful notice of this kind of behavior.

    blah blah blah rum is delicious see you all tomorrow.
  12. Flamestrike

    Flamestrike

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    He'd also be a good sub target (hint hint Walrein).

    A few thoughts on recent events:
    -I don't think Engineer's soft claim helps us too much. While yes, one would think that the mafia would be more careful, that's no guarantee, and it's always possible that he simply forgot. Especially with Ditto and kok gone from their side (two of the more experienced players that would catch a mistake like that) it's more and more likely for mafia to slip up. Still, it's worth considering.
    -Auramaster should post soon. Quagsires gets some leeway due to the recent subbing, but should also post soon, even more so in a sense since he's an experienced player.
    -I agree with khz that Paperblade's defense of Mithril makes him look a fair bit cleaner, but we shouldn't assume he's clean just because of that; it's possible that was just Paper's honest opinion.
    -Interesting that OD hasn't died yet. He's been the most active player by far, so why haven't the mafia tried to kill him? Some food for thought.
  13. Walrein

    Walrein

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    PM me if yyou wanna sub in for a certain inactive brony.

    EDIT: Taking a page from WildEep's book, Flamestrike lights Hydrattler on fire and builds Pernicious out of the ashes.
  14. khz

    khz

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    If Pernicious isn't reasonably active within the next few days then I'm willing to lynch him. I don't think by coincidence 3 players can all be inactive/busy especially since two of them chose to sub into the game. Rather I think it would be more likely that they're scum and have something to hide.
  15. auramaster

    auramaster

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    Vote tally while I'm posting

    Hydrattler: pokemaniac 212, New World Order (Should participate in discussions more)
    Engineer Pikachu: khz (Is lonely)
    pokemaniac 212: Orcinus Duo (If you don't know how many this adds up to, you shouldn't be playing Mafia)


    Agree that EP and pokemaniac have not contributed to the discussion much when they post, which makes them both suspicious, although I think EP is more likely to be Mafia. Vigilante killing Pernicious tonight seems fine although I would like to hear what he has to say first.

    Flamestrike's post got me wondering why the Mafia chose their kill targets, so far they've killed zorbees, Spiffy and Paperblade, all had power roles (Assuming the Mafia kill is Beaten and Shot because MB was Stabbing and the players Handcuffed and Shot have been the most suspicious players at the time).

    Of course this begs the question, why zorbees and Spiffy instead of OD, NWO, Aura, etc.? zorbees seems like an odd choice to me, he wasn't the most clean (New World Order), wasn't the one claiming a power role (NWO again), or creating the most discussion (Orcinus Duo iirc). Given that zorbees has played Expert games, he might have been nameInspected N0, or the Mafia avoided the obvious targets so a Bodyguard wouldn't stop them?

    Spiffy is a similarly strange choice. Again he had no confirmed power, was considered clean but not as much as NWO, and wasn't as forceful in creating discussion as OD. Even random Inspecting Spiffy doesn't fully explain it since Safeguard isn't as important a role as Mayor in NOC if I'm not mistaken. Maybe the Mafia didn't target someone as prominent for fear of them being protected by a Bodyguard?

    Paperblade, no matter how you look at it, is a vastly different choice from zorbees and Spiffy. This makes me think there was a special reason for taking him out, probably Ditto Inspected him Night 2, I can't think of any other reason why they would kill Paperblade.

    It's also possible one or both of NWO and OD are Mafia, although I highly doubt it. No one has counterclaimed Mayor yet, although they could just be unwilling to expose themselves, I say NWO is clean until then. OD started the lynch on kongs, and while I could see someone supporting a lynch on a Mafia that already started, a Mafia starting a lynch on another Mafia is ridiculous. Anyone else have any theories on why the Mafia killed those specific people?
  16. Pernicious

    Pernicious

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    Hi everyone -- I'll be busy now and until later tonight, but I've read a good bit of the thread so far, and I'll post when I get back.
  17. New World Order

    New World Order Licks Toads
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    I think that zorbees and Spiffy were indeed name inspected and killed, as both held relatively important roles.

    Some food for thought. Why exactly are AG and OD constantly clashing in this thread? Is it because they just plain don't like each other, or is it because they're both mafia and using their conflict as a facade? I'm not a very experienced player obviously, so I haven't been able to determine which is which by looking at their posts. Perhaps someone else can weigh in.
  18. khz

    khz

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    @auramaster: I unvoted Engineer Pikachu. My bad for not unbolding my vote.
  19. Orcinus Duo

    Orcinus Duo

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    All night kill reasoning can be buried under a pile of WIFOM logic. We shouldn't be considering them at all, it's very misleading.

    I like how NWO doesn't consider the mad possibility of me just thinking that AG is scum. And I still do because unless people have votes on him, he doesn't talk. At all.
  20. Flamestrike

    Flamestrike

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    The WIFOM point is fair enough, but I still feel it's worth considering at least to some extent. That being said, the fact that they had an inspector may explain it; they probably inspected more threatening targets (zorbees/Paperblade for inspection, Spiffy as a power role that was also a force in the village) and killed them off instead.

    Quagsires, you've had time to read the thread through. Now would be an excellent time to post your thoughts.
  21. Walrein

    Walrein

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    I need another sub pm me

    EDIT: I'm running out of ideas for sub flavor so Aura Guardian has been subbed out for jalmont747
  22. Jalmont

    Jalmont

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    Sorry everyone, I don't have much time to post thoughts and such, and I need to read the last couple of pages in the thread. I'll get my thoughts posted hopefully sometime tomorrow!
  23. Quagsires

    Quagsires

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    Note: This will be edited with more evidence and more thorough explanations tomorrow.

    Yeah, sorry for not posting this earlier, I really feel like I should've.

    Since I have done nothing all game (I'm not counting what my sub did, as we are two very different people with the same roles), I might as well give my opinions on this. Most of this bases off of the fact that we have two confirmed scum dead, Ditto and Kingofkongs, and we can see how others reacted towards those two in attacking, lynching, avoiding or generally agreeing with in order to get accurate reads, since mafias are usually somewhat tightly would groups without an actual plan to distance themselves from each other. Also please note that I began with quoting some posts from the past; I will add many more later. I will gladly clear up anything not clear or that I missed, since I probably screwed something up.

    NWO

    Clean. No counterclaim to mayor, very quick to go after Ditto, someone everyone apparently thought was clean, there's not a lot needed to say here. While his play is far from perfect, I think his inexperience in mafia in general explains his play rather than scumminess, as no scum would claim mayor day 1 with so little info. However, his activity could be better, but that may possibly be out of our control. Nevertheless, unless his activity gets significantly worse, I'm willing to call him the cleanest in this game right now. Ditto's alluding to him being clean only helps this image. About the only thing against this is the supposed majority day two, which would not have been reached if he is not a mayor, although if walrein did give a grace period due to him being at school this argument is invalid.
    Reference:
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    Orincus Duo- Probably one of the most hated people by the trollish kingofkongs, he should be noted for being one of the first people to try and lynch kingofkongs, something that thankfully ended up becoming a reality. While he could be a mafia who was simply throwing out the name of another mafioso, kok's overreaction and defensiveness makes me doubt this.

    Show Hide



    Khz:

    While he did make the mistake of voting off of ignorance and seems to not be able to detect kingofkong's trolling as much as others did, he did point out his obvious flaws in his logic and attack him for it, which is something that is worth noting in him being correct in pointing out a mafioso and going after him. Paperblade was correct to point out that this is an attitude that should be adopted more.

    Show Hide




    Pokemaniac 212

    You sir are probably the oddest of all of the people in this game so far. You have oddly stood by and had an unusual friendship with Ditto, almost like you knew he was with you instead of simply trusting him like many other did (looking back, I'm kinda wondering what was so trusting about Ditto ; his posts are broad and generic for the most part and seem to be going with the flow. It's also worth mentioning his habit of stating true statements about the village often, since most people expect mafia to lie and argue to spread confusion).
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    -
    Aura Guardian

    You are quite an experienced player,. as many have seen you as correctly before, and some of your scumtells I don't believe everyone understands them, and you probably should explain in the future why these are good scumtells. However, as kind of a general note, your posts reek with suspicion and general frustration at being misunderstood, most of your actions seem to go the exact opposite direction, with it kinda being debatable whether you're frustrated over losing or being outvoted by people who disagree. However, your hammering in Kingofkongs is important to note.

    Auramater

    You seem to be still hosting from PMD, as you are posting vote counts and not much else. While I would not say that this is an entirely goodd though, you really should make more posts that aren't centered around vote counts.

    Mithril

    You didn't do much the first day, although you made it clear that you could read through and respond within a reasonable amount of time when your activity was questioned, making my opinion of you slightly aulean towards town. However, your somewhat odd vote on kingofkongs that was unnecessary kinda looks like you are trying to fit in, even if you genuinely believed it.

    Flamestrike

    You are considered level headed by some, and that seems to be a fair assessment. However, some of your shifting away from the attention of others, although proven correct so far, does strike me as odd, as when you went somewhat as a maverick in a good way, although you did do some questionable switching towards moving for a Talkinglion lynch two days ago.

    Maxim/Hydrattler/whoever just subbed in

    POST MOAR. Your predecessors were considered extremely scummy; probably not the best role to sub into, and I see no reason to believe you as any differently. Simply lacking a read on you at this point is a pretty good reason to lynch you, especially when our roles will be kept behind lock and key.

    Engineer Pikachu.

    Orincus was right in calling you out for not posting much, you really have not done almost anything all game. While that is not necessarily the sign of a scum, as Mithril had a similar case yet I believe him to be Village, you have been insanely active in ASB, to the point where it's almost like you're admitting those reasons are valid. i remember Acklow had a similar reason last NOC, look at what he turned out to be.

    Empoof


    To be honest, I'm not sure about what I think about you right now. You seemed to follow in the footsteps of Ditto in often stating the obvious and oddly enough almost always being right, especially in the cases of Talkinglion, which makes me think you might be scum. It also makes me a bit uncomfortable that you talk in third person about the village so much; instead of "we need to" or "I think", it's "the Village needs to" or, "The village believes" , which makes me think you are not part of the village. There is also the matter of your reserve, which can lean you either towards scum or innocent, and I believe Walrein should not have commented on this at all. You are also in the same boat as EP in posting yet saying little (although the red pandas are nice and give the thread some variety)

    Walrein.

    Clearly scum. Vote: Walrein

    Quagsires

    I like this person, but I'll let you decide your own opinion on him. I do as that you do not commit the fallacy made in Flame's post about subs being given some sort of temporarily immunity and amnesty almost, since we are all equally likely to be scum.
    And...
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    [​IMG]
  24. khz

    khz

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    @Quagsire: I didn't pick up on kok's trolling because I wasn't actually online at the time lol. Actually I haven't even read his post because it seems he has deleted it.
  25. Walrein

    Walrein

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    Lynch Quagsires because OMGUS

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